Go Back  Bike Forums > Bike Forums > Advocacy & Safety
Reload this Page >

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Notices
Advocacy & Safety Cyclists should expect and demand safe accommodation on every public road, just as do all other users. Discuss your bicycle advocacy and safety concerns here.

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 01-03-18, 05:46 AM
  #951  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
Originally Posted by 350htrr
The driving force for the masses is keeping up with the Jones's and efficiency, (not waiting for a bus, and bus schedules)... Once people start to switch it will happen faster than one would think. JMO
I will eagerly await the awakening. I had no idea the masses have been waiting for such.
I don't see it being the overnight transformation you and others foresee. JMO
02Giant is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 05:52 AM
  #952  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
There are human-driven Ubers and Lyfts normally lurking, inactive, blocks and seconds from my house at all times. The cost of a lurking self-driving one will be negligible; there will be many more of them.

I really believe you'll be able to order a car (for a given destination), put on your shoes and/or jacket, and walk out to the end of your driveway, and wait no more than a 30 seconds for a car to arrive, if it is not already there.

If you're out in the boonies the wait will generally be longer, but also probably not more than a few minutes. In really remote places you'll have to order in advance more often.
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Why would they be circling? Ubers and Lyfts don't circle. They park and wait.
There is a cost for AV's, every second of every day whether it is moving or not. The longer one sits idle, the higher the in-motion cost. These things will not be free for anyone and generally, investors like to make a (large) return on their money.
02Giant is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 06:05 AM
  #953  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Retrofitted outlets.
This response alone shows you really don't have a grasp on the actual costs.

One of the projects I completed in 2017 was a small 320 stall parking ramp. There are 4 electrical receptacles in the entire garage. Say this garage gets converted to AV storage, you now need 320 240v charging stations. There is nothing there (or in any other ramp I have parked in) to convert.
Besides, the electrical service to the structure couldn't handle the additional load without being completely upgraded. Conservatively, you are looking at $750k.

I know, chump change...
02Giant is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 06:12 AM
  #954  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
Originally Posted by Leisesturm
Ah...well you are assuming they will all be electric. They should be, but likely won't be, at first. That is about the only downside I see to this. The continued proliferation of internal combustion technology for at least a couple more development cycles.
My "assumption" is based off of multiple posts in this thread. In reality, all electric is another speed bump in the road. If all electric was a realistic option for all AV's, it would already have a large share of the current automotive market.
02Giant is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 09:24 AM
  #955  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13659 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Or just because they're lazy; even with crowdsourced corrections, Waze still regularly decides I must be on a parallel road fifty yards or more away, then makes matters worse by popping back and forth between that and he corret road randomly. What happens when a GPS-dependent automated car is cruising down the freeway and suddenly glitches into thinking it's almost at the 4-way stop on the access road nearby?
FYI, no AV being planned is "GPS dependent" in the way you imagine. They all rely on some form of "vision system...." such as LIDAR.
genec is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 10:24 AM
  #956  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
This is the problem with all the "distributed load" based claims; there are already very solid arguments for redistributing the rush hour load by altering "normal working hours" and it hasn't happened. I remember Dallas even floating the idea of a tax credit for companies that didn't have shift changes from 7-9AM or 4-6PM on weekdays specifically to try to cut some rush hour load, and yet I never heard of a company willing to take them up on it. (Partly because it was to be an all-or-nothing deal; you couldn't just shuffle the shop shifts and still have the office staff coming in 8-5.) As long as 80+% of people have to travel between 7-9AM you have to have the capacity to haul all of those to their destinations at the same time.
In the current own-your-own-car system Person 1 leaves his house at 7:00 and arrives at work at 7:20 and his car sits there all day. In the mean time Person 2 lives 5 minutes from where Person 1 works, and leaves at 7:30 to get to work by 8:00. The same car could get both of these guys to work, and at least a couple more between 8 and 9. That alone will reduce physical car demand by a factor of 2 if not 3 or 4 or more.

But most of it will be managed by surge pricing and pooling discounts.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 10:28 AM
  #957  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Or just because they're lazy; even with crowdsourced corrections, Waze still regularly decides I must be on a parallel road fifty yards or more away, then makes matters worse by popping back and forth between that and he corret road randomly. What happens when a GPS-dependent automated car is cruising down the freeway and suddenly glitches into thinking it's almost at the 4-way stop on the access road nearby?
That's not Waze - that's your GPS f-ing up. Waze on my old phone did that; not on my new one.

AVs use GPS for general navigation, not precise maneuvering. They know where they are not from GPS.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 11:08 AM
  #958  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,027

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,590 Times in 1,073 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
That's not Waze - that's your GPS f-ing up. Waze on my old phone did that; not on my new one.

AVs use GPS for general navigation, not precise maneuvering. They know where they are not from GPS.
Thank goodness that the hypothetical self driving car navigation systems and hardware in the hypothetical ready for prime time self driving motor vehicles are incapable of f-ing up and will be perfect in every way at all times and under all conditions; and cheap too! No wonder that no more crashes are promised by its proselytizers.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 11:50 AM
  #959  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13659 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Thank goodness that the actual in test self driving car navigation systems and hardware in the actual in test ready for prime time self driving motor vehicles are incapable of f-ing up and will be more perfect in every way than most human drivers at all times and under all conditions; and cheap too! No wonder that no more crashes are promised by its proselytizers.

Fixed it for you... your "hypothetical" was getting in the way of reality.

No, you may not own one right now... but the darn things are actually out on the roads... this isn't vaporware... the cars actually exist and are being tested in multiple locations.

And keep in mind that they only have to be a bit better than most human drivers... not "perfect," just better.

Now having said that, I do acknowledge that at least Volvo is saying "hey, this is harder than we thought..." as they move their release date to 2021.

Meanwhile, the big three in Detroit are now being shown the way through Waymo's latest test platform... a real (ie, not hypothetical) test of self driving technology in winter icy conditions.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/26/...iving-car-test
genec is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 11:52 AM
  #960  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,046
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2535 Post(s)
Liked 769 Times in 537 Posts
Appropriate for this thread as well.
Originally Posted by Leisesturm
We can't nuke ourselves back to single cell organisms soon enough. Hopefully we get a better result next time things get to the "intelligent life" stage...
Leisesturm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 11:59 AM
  #961  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,027

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,590 Times in 1,073 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
Fixed it for you... your "hypothetical" was getting in the way of reality.
All the "In test", test cars being tested on public roads have driver backup for good reason -because they are NOT ready for prime time. When and if fielding of type 5 self driving cars ever become available for public use on public roads is just so much speculation at the present time.

Fielding of the on-call vehicle rental/sharing schemes using self driving vehicles bandied about on this thread are even more speculative and less likely to occur in any foreseeable future.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 12:23 PM
  #962  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13659 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
All the "In test", test cars being tested on public roads have driver backup for good reason -because they are NOT ready for prime time. When and if fielding of type 5 self driving cars ever become available for public use on public roads is just so much speculation at the present time.

Fielding of the on-call vehicle rental/sharing schemes using self driving vehicles bandied about on this thread are even more speculative and less likely to occur in any foreseeable future.
You are wrong... Waymo is testing cars in the Phoenix area without back up drivers. This was announced November 7th.

The company is now running its autonomous minivans around Phoenix with no human inside to grab the wheel if things go bad, CEO John Krafcik announced Tuesday. And in just a few months, it will invite passengers to climb aboard the world’s first driverless ride-hailing service.
This IS being done in a limited area.

While several other states have approved AV testing, many of those states have laws that still REQUIRE a driver behind the wheel.

Again, this is not happening "over night." But it also is not just "hypothetical." These exist. They are being tested, the cars are clocking miles, and at least one area is doing testing without humans to intervene.
genec is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 12:26 PM
  #963  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,027

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,590 Times in 1,073 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
Volvo backing down a bit from their earlier predictions of when they would be ready with an AV.
https://www.wired.com/story/self-dri...rs-challenges/
Thanks for posting this article, you should re-read it.
Extract:
"Those building the things have long insisted you’ll first interact with a self-driving car through a taxi-like service. The tech is too expensive, and will at first be too dependent on weather conditions, topography, and high-quality mapping, to sell straight to consumers. But they haven’t sorted out the user experience part of this equation. Waymo is set to launch a limited, actually driver-free service in Phoenix, Arizona, next year, and says it has come up with a way for passengers to communicate they want to pull over. But the company didn’t let reporters test the functionality during a test drive at its test facility this fall, so you’ll have to take its word for it.

Other questions loom: How do you find your vehicle? Ensure that you’re in the right one? Tell it that you’re having an emergency, or that you’ve had a little accident inside and need a cleanup ASAP? Bigger picture: How does a company even start to recoup its huge research and development budget? How much does it charge per ride? What happens when there’s a crash? Who’s liable, and how much do they have to pay in insurance?"


To read the posts of the starry-eyed dreamers on this thread, one would assume that they think that these questions/problems have either been resolved or are irrelevant.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 12:32 PM
  #964  
Senior Member
 
tyrion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,076

Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet

Mentioned: 28 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2228 Post(s)
Liked 2,011 Times in 972 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike

[/INDENT]To read the posts of the starry-eyed dreamers on this thread, one would assume that they think that these questions/problems have either been resolved or are irrelevant.
Wrong. These problems are relevant and some haven't been solved, but they're simply not very difficult problems.
tyrion is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 12:33 PM
  #965  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 30,027

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,590 Times in 1,073 Posts
Originally Posted by tyrion
Wrong. These problems are relevant and some haven't been solved, but they're simply not very difficult problems.
OK, easy-peasy; if you say so.

Or just fabricate the answers including rental/sales cost structure for fielding a profit making scheme utilizing self driving vehicles.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 12:41 PM
  #966  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Thanks for posting this article, you should re-read it.
Extract:
"Those building the things have long insisted you’ll first interact with a self-driving car through a taxi-like service. The tech is too expensive, and will at first be too dependent on weather conditions, topography, and high-quality mapping, to sell straight to consumers. But they haven’t sorted out the user experience part of this equation. Waymo is set to launch a limited, actually driver-free service in Phoenix, Arizona, next year, and says it has come up with a way for passengers to communicate they want to pull over. But the company didn’t let reporters test the functionality during a test drive at its test facility this fall, so you’ll have to take its word for it.

Other questions loom: How do you find your vehicle? Ensure that you’re in the right one? Tell it that you’re having an emergency, or that you’ve had a little accident inside and need a cleanup ASAP? Bigger picture: How does a company even start to recoup its huge research and development budget? How much does it charge per ride? What happens when there’s a crash? Who’s liable, and how much do they have to pay in insurance?"


To read the posts of the starry-eyed dreamers on this thread, one would assume that they think that these questions/problems have either been resolved or are irrelevant.
Why would one think that? There is no doubt that there are remaining questions to answer and problems to resolve. But that's normal with anything prior to the roll out of anything new.
  1. How do you find your vehicle? Ensure that you’re in the right one? Same way you find your Uber or Lyft today, perhaps with an additional conspicuous unique ID on the car which has been messaged to your app for definite confirmation. To get the car to move you could also be requested to enter a code into your by the car after you get in.
  2. Tell it that you’re having an emergency, or that you’ve had a little accident inside and need a cleanup ASAP? Big red button? Cord like in a bus? Each service will experiment and settle on some method.
  3. Bigger picture: How does a company even start to recoup its huge research and development budget? How much does it charge per ride? What happens when there’s a crash? Who’s liable, and how much do they have to pay in insurance?" I wish the problems I face at work were this easy. Where there are any number of potential solutions, and your job is simply to find the best one, rather than try to solve a problem that is not even known to be solvable.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 01:27 PM
  #967  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posts: 4,816
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1593 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1,027 Times in 576 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike

Other questions loom: How do you find your vehicle? Ensure that you’re in the right one?

That problem has already pretty well devastated the rental car industry and would likely take decades to overcome.
jon c. is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 01:54 PM
  #968  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by jon c.
[/INDENT]
That problem has already pretty well devastated the rental car industry and would likely take decades to overcome.


Seriously. The "hard" part is deciding which one of the many ways to solve is the one to choose.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 02:04 PM
  #969  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
It seems Volvo is having issues answering the "hard" questions...maybe they are hiring.
02Giant is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 03:23 PM
  #970  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
FYI, no AV being planned is "GPS dependent" in the way you imagine. They all rely on some form of "vision system...." such as LIDAR.
Most likely they'll use some combination of systems. The question then becomes which will take priority when one is wrong, or when one has too little information.

For example, you get on a 35mph access road, but there's no speed limit sign near where you get on. So the computer consults the GPS, which thinks you're on the 65mph freeway a few yards away. Potential problem there, and one that would take a lot of road modifications to eliminate.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 03:33 PM
  #971  
Senior Member
 
KD5NRH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stephenville TX
Posts: 3,697

Bikes: 2010 Trek 7100

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 697 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
Originally Posted by 350htrr
Because I live in the real world, bus fares would "probably" cost me close to $600 a year to travel where I would want to go, which could work... Except for the time, effort, scheduling, thus a car works better for me even at $7,000 a year... and... I can afford it...
$600/year? DART monthly passes for the D/FW area would cost $1920/year. Even local-only would be over $900/year, and you wouldn't be able to go anywhere after midnight, or most places after 10PM, or a lot of places efficiently at any time. AFAIK, they still don't even offer sensible things like a late run through the bar districts to give people a cheap alternative to driving home after last call.

Then there's the time factor; my bus ride to one job there was just shy of 2 hours by the quickest route, when I could drive in ~20 minutes. Adding in standing around if I happened to miss a connection, it meant 4 hours out of my day spent on the bus, compared to 40 minutes and the ability to divert a mile over to Golden Corral on the way home if I wanted to.
KD5NRH is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 03:40 PM
  #972  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Most likely they'll use some combination of systems. The question then becomes which will take priority when one is wrong, or when one has too little information.

For example, you get on a 35mph access road, but there's no speed limit sign near where you get on. So the computer consults the GPS, which thinks you're on the 65mph freeway a few yards away. Potential problem there, and one that would take a lot of road modifications to eliminate.
Once an AV is on a 35 mph access road it knows it is on that road and will look up the speed limit for that road. It won't consult the GPS to determine where it is (because it already knows), much less to find out the GPS is wrong about where it is.

AVs have maps, only go on mapped routes, and keep track of where they are on the map based on where they turn. GPS is for backup only, or perhaps to determine how close they are to an upcoming turn, if it is used at all. To be independent from GPS all it would have to do is accurately keep track of velocity and milestones (like intersections) to know exactly where it is. GPS is really unnecessary.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 04:21 PM
  #973  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Once an AV is on a 35 mph access road it knows it is on that road and will look up the speed limit for that road. It won't consult the GPS to determine where it is (because it already knows), much less to find out the GPS is wrong about where it is.

AVs have maps, only go on mapped routes, and keep track of where they are on the map based on where they turn. GPS is for backup only, or perhaps to determine how close they are to an upcoming turn, if it is used at all. To be independent from GPS all it would have to do is accurately keep track of velocity and milestones (like intersections) to know exactly where it is. GPS is really unnecessary.
So much for arriving at your driveway before you can get your shoes on.
02Giant is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 04:29 PM
  #974  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by 02Giant
So much for arriving at your driveway before you can get your shoes on.
Why do you say that?

If it stops at your driveway it's still on the map.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 01-03-18, 04:35 PM
  #975  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
If it's not on the map, it's not going to find the driveway.

Ever seen a private drive with more than one residence accessible from it?
02Giant is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.