Ninety5rpm

Don't forget the actual operating AVs that @noisebeam rides among every day, and has for months (over a year?), with no issues.

Ninety5rpm

What I've been saying...

LAS VEGAS – Auto companies at this week's CES tech convention affirmed plans to have their first true self-driving cars in production by 2021 — or in some cases earlier.

But don't expect to see these vehicles on any dealership lots.

This first generation of autonomous vehicles will, in most cases, not be offered for sale or lease to the general public, but instead would be reserved for commercial use by ride-hailing fleets and delivery services.

www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2018/01/11/first-true-autonomous-cars-wont-sale/1021656001/

genec

Ah yes, just as all such techno advances have been hyped since the advent of the printing press...

Remember back when horseless carriages first arrived? I'm sure you do.

Ninety5rpm

Actually, a lot of tech advances arrive with much less advance information. The rumors and information about smart phones and electric cars a few years before they arrived were greatly subdued compared to what we know now about AVs a few years before they arrive...

KD5NRH

If a piece of tech that's been around as long as the ATM costs more to maintain than paying 2-3 tellers' full time salaries and benefits, there's no way a car can have vastly more automation without the maintenance costing more than a professional driver.

genec

Yeah, that soooo explains the long lines at the "Apple store" before ipods, ipads and iphones (name your release...).

squirtdad

A few points that everyone seem to be missing:

There are still a lot of technical/legal/regulatory issues to be resolved before there are true autonomous vehicles used on the road in any sort of meaningful number. (simple things like rain, road dirt, snow etc covering sensors)

wide usage of self driving cars is years/decades away.

any sort of networked usage and coordination is decades and decades and decades away.

In congested areas, there is simple not any room for more cars, with or without a driver so mass transit is mostly likely going to have resurgence in those areas out of necessity

genec

True on all points. The only real answer to the question posed by the OP is: Yes, self driving cars will be safer for cyclists, provided said vehicles obey all the rules of the road.

Everything else posted here (except for actual news of vehicles on the road) is speculation... and for some, denial.

Ninety5rpm

I believe we've at least touched on all these points multiple times in this thread.

Many of the legal/regulatory hurdles have been knocked down in the last year. 48 different companies have acquired permits to test AVs in California alone. They're largely left alone, but must regularly submit reports summarizing the results of their testing. Companies like Tesla have Level 2 cars out on the road today. I don't know much about the progress in extreme conditions (rain, dirt, snow), but yeah, they're working on it. This is from a year ago:


And this is almost two years ago:

Wide usage is definitely still at least a few years away, but probably less than a decade, IMHO.

The much-ballyhooed networked usage and coordination idea is unlikely to ever come to fruition - there should be no significant need for it. Beyond the kind of coordination already use by Uber and Lyft, of course.

Shared/pooled self-driving hailed cars will reduce congestion, like UberPOOL is already beginning to do.

I-Like-To-Bike

The only people oblivious to the obvious points you address are the fan-bois and true believers of promoters' press releases who repeat every promise and objective as if these goals are already a done deal. In their dreamy future-world there is no need for the word "IF" or "failure to meet objectives" in their vocabulary as all testing currently being done and money being spent is just the cherry on top confirmation/proof that the product is ready to be unleashed on the public.

Apparently at least on this list a few actually believe that because the smartphone is a very successful product among other successful products, no nay-saying is permitted to the unabashed dreaming of the imminent fielding of Type 5 driver less motor vehicles capable of safely transporting passengers everywhere at the same speed, convenience and comfort as currently available vehicles can go. Better yet the REAL DEAL dreamers have already wished away all economic concerns as well as technical issues and believe every promise and even make up their own for all those who get on board and ride with them on these super-duper bargain priced vehicles.

Maybe during the upcoming Super Bowl there will be advertisements for the introduction of these products:
Coming Soon to Your Neighborhood, in fact, Right to your Front Door with Just One Click!

It is always nice to dream, but it is helpful to know the difference between wishful thinking and reality.

Ninety5rpm

I-Like-To-Bike

No Strawman, Jack.

Self driving vehicles that are not capable of safely and legally transporting passengers and cargo everywhere at the same speed, convenience and comfort as currently available vehicles can go will never displace any significant portion of the transportation fleet, especially in the lack of any evidence that they can be economically produced and operated. Who the heck would waste their money on such limited use vehicles?

squirtdad

companies have permits to test.... which is whole different beast than production cars in wide use

Simple example, that is not even close to being resolved:

Who is cited when an driverless vehicle crashes and is in the wrong? The passenger, the vehicle owner, which passenger, the car maker, the software maker?

Also insurance prices are almost sure to be higher than regular cars, at least until there are many years for data that can be used to prove safety.

AV are no panacea and a long way from being common.

Ninety5rpm

Well THAT is not a straw man, but it's very different from "no nay-saying is permitted to the unabashed dreaming of the imminent fielding of Type 5 driver less motor vehicles capable of safely transporting passengers everywhere at the same speed, convenience and comfort as currently available vehicles can go."

Apply the 80/20 rule - 80 percent of the job can be done with 20% of the effort. These vehicles will be used to do 80% of the driving, because for that 80%, it will be cheaper, quicker and/or more convenient sufficient to make it more desirable than driving one's own car.

Whether the remaining 20% takes 2 years, 20 years or 200 years, really doesn't matter.

Ninety5rpm

Teslas are production cars in wide use with Level 2 autonomy.

A lot of people are working on these questions. Definitive answers are months away.

As noted above, AVs will not be individually owned but fleet-owned (like by Uber). The corporations that own them will be insured.

Self-driving taxis are coming to Japan


Nissan is bringing self-driving cabs to the streets of Japan.
The company announced Tuesday that it plans to test autonomous taxis in March near its headquarters in Yokohama.

KD5NRH

Doctors have been healing people for centuries, but still can't beat the flu into submission. Getting a few minor steps into the process doesn't guarantee it will ever be mastered.

Trillions of dollars have been spent developing and testing products that never made it to market, or made it to market and then failed. Just because someone is spending a fortune on it doesn't mean it will ever be what it promises.

Ninety5rpm

But we understand the reasons we can't beat the flu.

There are no known reasons inhibiting AV success. Ultimately, driving is not that complicated. To use the old adage, it ain't rocket science. But rocket scientists and their equivalents are working on it, just in case.

KD5NRH

I know a few rocket scientists, and there's no way they'd automate a flight to the point of feeling safe without a human hand constantly hovering over a set of "abort" buttons. Guaranteed SpaceX still has at least one person somewhere watching all those video feeds with the ability to instantly initiate one or more types of abort, and they're not launching through rush hour traffic.

Ninety5rpm

Flight, in 3D, is way more complicated than driving.

Ninety5rpm

BOOM! LEVEL 4 GM ROLLOUT NEXT YEAR!!!

After Waymo Level 4 rollout in Phoenix later THIS YEAR!!!

QUOTE:


Starting next year, General Motors will begin deploying a fleet of up to 2,500 self-driving cars that will have no steering wheel or pedals, making them the first true robo-taxis to hit the streets.
...
Waymo expects to begin a driverless ride-hailing service in Phoenix later this year using modified versions of Chrysler Pacific minivans. Although there will be no safety engineer in the driver’s seat, the minivans will still have a steering wheel, accelerator, and brake pedals.

GM, by contrast, won’t launch its ride-hailing service until 2019 but it will use purpose-built autonomous Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles (called Cruise AVs) that will be mass-produced at a factory in Michigan. Cruise Automation founder Kyle Vogt said 20 years from now, people will look back on these first driverless taxis as a milestone in automotive history.

FORBES: Look, Ma, No Steering Wheel Or Pedals In GM's Robo-Taxi, Coming In 2019

noisebeam

Excellent. I quite enjoy cycling around autonomous vehicles as they respond immediately and predictably to my signals and lane position. I still verify, but that is a habit I won't drop anytime soon.

350htrr

Where, oh where are all those neigh Sayers that were here in this thread... ?

It's a daydream, it's a fantasy, it's a total non starter, it's economically not-doable, it's practically an un-doable technology today, maybe in the far, far fantastical future...?

Well now, it is all of a sudden a total possibility, and soon, very soon...

I-Like-To-Bike

Still waiting for a sighting of Type 5 self driving motor vehicle on the road capable of safely picking up, transporting and delivering paying passengers/owners to/from any destination that is already physically and economically accessible to every driver in the country, without the aid of a "non driving" assistant overseeing the operation.

Still unimpressed by Press Releases and Public Relations Flackery about tests and prototypes, especially when the results/progress of the software and hardware tests are closely held secrets. Still not bamboozled by PR over the amounts of money raised or spent on the promise of the pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.

350htrr

Yes, we are still at the steam engine type of vehicle/AV car right now... BUT, the future IS here for all intensive purposes as far as the AV's, they, have basically arrived... and... The timeline to full fruition will NOT take anywhere as long as the personal car took to take hold... Want to bet some $$$ on that.?

prathmann

Not much of a test since I doubt that you can identify any destination that is "physically and economically accessible to every driver in the country." Since there are no such destinations the proposed self-driving vehicle doesn't actually have to move anyone anywhere to pass the test.