Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?
05-25-17, 05:45 PM
#101
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The area in which self-driving cars are not ready for prime time concerns the fuzzy logic of interpretation of ambiguities that human consciousness remains FAR superior at converting into a logical sequence of actions. The mechanics of piloting a driverless vehicle, maneuvering it around obstacles, reacting appropriately to developments are SOLVED. The Tesla car was fully self-driving. They claim it wasn't to protect their assets. Had they used a patented LIDAR array in the sensor suite, the vehicle would have been well able to discern the white truck in the low contrast situation. They have learned a valuable lesson. Cheap out at your peril! LIDAR will be mandatory on all driverless vehicles going forward, and they are now better than 85% of human drivers, and can only improve from there.
But they are terrible at interacting with the homeless guy at the end of the highway overpass and getting meaningful directions when what is in the navquest database fails to match up with reality. There is no earthly way a human driver can intercede in an accident situation in any meaningful way. Accidents happen in microseconds. The best human reaction times are on the order of .5 second. 500 milliseconds. An eternity to an AI, even a primitive one. Laughable to think a human has any advantage where speed of execution of an evasive action is called for. What hubris.
Navy pilots are forbidden to put their $5M dollar aircraft down on carrier decks themselves. As the fighter comes in on final approach the pilot must show both hands in the air to the forward observer in the control tower. They are disciplined if they fail to comply. If the US Navy trusts autonomous systems to land multi-million dollar fighter aircraft in rolling seas on tiny aircraft carrier landing strips, I think we can stop agonizing about the potential for autonomous cars to deal with stop and go traffic!
But they are terrible at interacting with the homeless guy at the end of the highway overpass and getting meaningful directions when what is in the navquest database fails to match up with reality. There is no earthly way a human driver can intercede in an accident situation in any meaningful way. Accidents happen in microseconds. The best human reaction times are on the order of .5 second. 500 milliseconds. An eternity to an AI, even a primitive one. Laughable to think a human has any advantage where speed of execution of an evasive action is called for. What hubris.
Navy pilots are forbidden to put their $5M dollar aircraft down on carrier decks themselves. As the fighter comes in on final approach the pilot must show both hands in the air to the forward observer in the control tower. They are disciplined if they fail to comply. If the US Navy trusts autonomous systems to land multi-million dollar fighter aircraft in rolling seas on tiny aircraft carrier landing strips, I think we can stop agonizing about the potential for autonomous cars to deal with stop and go traffic!
05-26-17, 07:14 AM
#102
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Lets also not forget that the driver less car is far off, but the driver assisted vehicle is already here.
Collision sensors, back up sensors, lane sensors, and soon speed sensors will all gently force US drivers at least to start behaving on the roadways. This tech is becoming mandated to meet US safety standards in cars. And that will make it safer for cyclists.
And for those that say "we dont have to buy these cars"
I do not want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but look at government programs... Cash for clunkers took a lot of used vehicles out at the push of the auto industry lobbyists. Vermont has adopted a ECU inspection as part of the state safety inspection of the vehicle.
Nobody is going to come right out and say you have to buy one of these modern cars, they will tax, and inspect your old car to the point that it will just make economical sense to get with a new one.
Collision sensors, back up sensors, lane sensors, and soon speed sensors will all gently force US drivers at least to start behaving on the roadways. This tech is becoming mandated to meet US safety standards in cars. And that will make it safer for cyclists.
And for those that say "we dont have to buy these cars"
I do not want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but look at government programs... Cash for clunkers took a lot of used vehicles out at the push of the auto industry lobbyists. Vermont has adopted a ECU inspection as part of the state safety inspection of the vehicle.
Nobody is going to come right out and say you have to buy one of these modern cars, they will tax, and inspect your old car to the point that it will just make economical sense to get with a new one.
05-26-17, 07:24 AM
#103
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Consumers are getting mandatory safety devices whether they ask for them or not... give them enough "candy," and they will go along with anything.
05-26-17, 03:52 PM
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So how long do you figure before bicycles get booted from the automated cars' roads?
When you invite government to solve a problem, you're a fool if you don't think it'll create hundreds more.
When you invite government to solve a problem, you're a fool if you don't think it'll create hundreds more.
05-26-17, 04:00 PM
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The roads are safe, the cars are becoming safer... and the key component is taking the distracted decision making away from that flawed operator behind the wheel. Everything else moves at a very slow pace (to a computer) and is easily detectable.
Roads are a public place... it has been the drivers that feel they own the road, that are largely the issue.
05-26-17, 05:15 PM
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Irrelevant; once the computers are driving, there will be no need for speed limits, etc. How long do you think cyclists' right to slow 100+mph traffic to 12mph will last?
05-26-17, 09:25 PM
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Irrelevant in the first place, according to Consumer Reports, as at least 50% of their respondants don't believe it will ever work.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/doubts-gr...120002804.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/doubts-gr...120002804.html
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05-27-17, 01:27 PM
#108
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Speed limits will still exist, but will likely be variable, and conveyed electronically, vice statically posted.
05-27-17, 01:33 PM
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When you invite government to solve a problem, you're a fool if you don't think it'll create hundreds more.
05-27-17, 01:34 PM
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I suspect that self driving cars will change the whole driving landscape... It is unlikely that in the future of say 25 years distant one would even own a car... more likely you will have a lease card and will "call" what ever vehicle you need at the time... single passenger commuter, multi passenger wagon, or even small truck. You will likely subscribe to certain regular routes for commuting.
But I suspect that people will still want a very personal spontaneous method to run to a friends' house or a local shop... and this is where the bicycle fits in quite nicely. Perhaps with more focus on "Complete Streets" and with true law abiding/road sharing vehicles, the "fear" of cycling might dissipate for the average person, and cycling and walking will become more common place, as in many areas of Europe. But, hey, I am an optimist.
05-27-17, 01:41 PM
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Irrelevant in the first place, according to Consumer Reports, as at least 50% of their respondants don't believe it will ever work.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/doubts-gr...120002804.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/doubts-gr...120002804.html
05-27-17, 02:25 PM
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When something goes wrong with a cellphone or PC it can't kill you.
05-28-17, 10:54 AM
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05-28-17, 08:32 PM
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How will it be any worse than today when human driven cars can't recognize any of these either?
Programming these decisions will remove the human-factor of judgement in which every driver in a collision thought his judgement was better than everybody else's, including the law.
Programming these decisions will remove the human-factor of judgement in which every driver in a collision thought his judgement was better than everybody else's, including the law.
Do robot cars get drunk then?
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05-28-17, 08:33 PM
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I still don't see the point in owning a cellphone. Also because I can afford FOOD and stuff.
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05-29-17, 10:11 AM
#116
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I want to take this little bit of conversation a bit further...
I suspect that self driving cars will change the whole driving landscape... It is unlikely that in the future of say 25 years distant one would even own a car... more likely you will have a lease card and will "call" what ever vehicle you need at the time... single passenger commuter, multi passenger wagon, or even small truck. You will likely subscribe to certain regular routes for commuting.
But I suspect that people will still want a very personal spontaneous method to run to a friends' house or a local shop... and this is where the bicycle fits in quite nicely. Perhaps with more focus on "Complete Streets" and with true law abiding/road sharing vehicles, the "fear" of cycling might dissipate for the average person, and cycling and walking will become more common place, as in many areas of Europe. But, hey, I am an optimist.
I suspect that self driving cars will change the whole driving landscape... It is unlikely that in the future of say 25 years distant one would even own a car... more likely you will have a lease card and will "call" what ever vehicle you need at the time... single passenger commuter, multi passenger wagon, or even small truck. You will likely subscribe to certain regular routes for commuting.
But I suspect that people will still want a very personal spontaneous method to run to a friends' house or a local shop... and this is where the bicycle fits in quite nicely. Perhaps with more focus on "Complete Streets" and with true law abiding/road sharing vehicles, the "fear" of cycling might dissipate for the average person, and cycling and walking will become more common place, as in many areas of Europe. But, hey, I am an optimist.
I appreciate this view!
05-29-17, 04:29 PM
#117
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Nor would they run red or amber lights and stop signs, speed, weave, push, all those things that cause human drivers to cause collisions because they are illegal. So the advantage would be allowing owners of self-driving cars to still use their cars to get home safely without jeopardizing other road users.
05-29-17, 04:30 PM
#118
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05-29-17, 05:56 PM
#119
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I've been sharing the road with Google's (now Waymo's) test cars for about a year now. They've always given me plenty of room. Yes, these are the ones with a tech behind the wheel to intervene if the car can't deal with something, but they behave far less erratically than the human-controlled cars on the road.
I'm so used to seeing the Waymo Lexus SUV's driving around that, whenever I see a regular RX, it looks strange without all the cameras and LIDAR dome.
I'm so used to seeing the Waymo Lexus SUV's driving around that, whenever I see a regular RX, it looks strange without all the cameras and LIDAR dome.
06-02-17, 04:17 PM
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Safety issues aside, I wonder how driverless tech will impact the aesthetics of the car. And aerodynamics. You got all these camera and radar gizmos sticking out of the roof, it does not look pretty. Automakers spend billions to make their cars look good, as well as on wind-tunnel testing and aerodynamic design. Because people want to drive a nice-looking car and all those extra doodads sticking out of it doesn't help. The system could be streamlined to a certain extent but it's not easy to do. In order to have a clear view of everything around it the radar has to be mounted high up on the roof. So trying to streamline it may compromise safety.
06-02-17, 05:01 PM
#122
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Safety issues aside, I wonder how driverless tech will impact the aesthetics of the car. And aerodynamics. You got all these camera and radar gizmos sticking out of the roof, it does not look pretty. Automakers spend billions to make their cars look good, as well as on wind-tunnel testing and aerodynamic design. Because people want to drive a nice-looking car and all those extra doodads sticking out of it doesn't help. The system could be streamlined to a certain extent but it's not easy to do. In order to have a clear view of everything around it the radar has to be mounted high up on the roof. So trying to streamline it may compromise safety.
The cars with all the extra bits on the roof and all... those are prototypes... They are constantly updating both the hardware and software to optimize the vehicle. Just like they ALL also have a tech that rides shotgun on the computers... So expect the tech and the funky stuff on the roof to go away in say 10 years or so... AFTER legislation allows for true self driving cars to be on the road... that too is still in the way.
Now let's delve into this even further... what do you really care about the looks of the vehicle that takes you from A to B? Most likely you won't buy one... you will likely lease a ride for a particular purpose... so this whole "my self esteem depends on how cool and good looking my car is" attitude should just fade away... as people realize it's just friggin' transportation man... not a lifestyle statement.
06-02-17, 05:28 PM
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Now let's delve into this even further... what do you really care about the looks of the vehicle that takes you from A to B? Most likely you won't buy one... you will likely lease a ride for a particular purpose... so this whole "my self esteem depends on how cool and good looking my car is" attitude should just fade away... as people realize it's just friggin' transportation man... not a lifestyle statement.
Most people don't want to drive something (or have it drive you) that looks like a UFO.
Even when it comes to cellphones and computers, people want something that looks nice.
Companies don't spend billions to make their products look good for nothing.
Last edited by northernlights; 06-02-17 at 05:31 PM.
06-02-17, 06:27 PM
#124
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unfortunately, by calling the augmented cruise control "autopilot" Tesla is encouraging people to just let the car drive. For example, see the guy that died in one while watching a movie. There was an article I was going to link here where the Tesla is said to be lethal to cyclists. We haven't seen any crashes though. Seattle should be ground zero for that.
06-02-17, 06:28 PM
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Now let's delve into this even further... what do you really care about the looks of the vehicle that takes you from A to B? Most likely you won't buy one... you will likely lease a ride for a particular purpose... so this whole "my self esteem depends on how cool and good looking my car is" attitude should just fade away... as people realize it's just friggin' transportation man... not a lifestyle statement.
