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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 01-27-18, 08:41 AM
  #1251  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Just wait until one of these contraptions gets hacked.

Its not a question of if, only when.
And also with every other electronic device. In most cases it has already happened and we don't know or think about it.

Banks, hospitals, the Department of Defense ... stores, credit card services .... every electronic radio-frequency device can be controlled remotely---that's the point. Therefore they can be controlled by anyone who can figure out how,

And somehow, society continues to crumble only slowly ... it has not yet collapsed.

If people want to live in fear, it is an option ... but why live in fear of one's own imagination? Why spend one's life scaring oneself?

Whatever ... it's an option.

I can tell you this ... the Darwin Award committee needs a much bigger staff because a lot of potential winners are going unnoticed.
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Old 01-27-18, 03:25 PM
  #1252  
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The notion that Autonomous vehicles will share learning amongst all the other AVs isn't likely.

Within a fleet owned by the same company, yes, but not between competing fleets. It will be considered proprietary.
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Old 01-27-18, 06:26 PM
  #1253  
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Originally Posted by f4rrest View Post
The notion that Autonomous vehicles will share learning amongst all the other AVs isn't likely.

Within a fleet owned by the same company, yes, but not between competing fleets. It will be considered proprietary.
i disagree.

Look at aviation.

That's a Global system.

Car makers will be required to use whatever software and hardware the government mandates just like aircraft manufacturers do. Basically ... if you want to get rich building planes, or cars, you will join our system. Simple as that.

And as the plane makers do, car makers will acquiesce. What ioption would they have? Think of the press ... "Fordolet has opted not to join the national highway safety monitoring program ... and after one year, our research shows that Fordolet cars were responsible for 92 % of all accidents in the past year."

Think you could get that stock cheap?

That is what i see all too often ... people who have no imagination, no awareness of what has already been done (not referring to @f4rrest but so many peple act like it is inventing a new wheel ... no, it is merely applying what is already on the shelf and in some cases, in use.
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Old 01-27-18, 07:04 PM
  #1254  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
i disagree.

Look at aviation.

That's a Global system.

Car makers will be required to use whatever software and hardware the government mandates just like aircraft manufacturers do. Basically ... if you want to get rich building planes, or cars, you will join our system. Simple as that.

And as the plane makers do, car makers will acquiesce. What ioption would they have? Think of the press ... "Fordolet has opted not to join the national highway safety monitoring program ... and after one year, our research shows that Fordolet cars were responsible for 92 % of all accidents in the past year."

Think you could get that stock cheap?

That is what i see all too often ... people who have no imagination, no awareness of what has already been done (not referring to @f4rrest but so many peple act like it is inventing a new wheel ... no, it is merely applying what is already on the shelf and in some cases, in use.
+1 that's just great...
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Old 01-27-18, 07:29 PM
  #1255  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
...Car makers will be required to use whatever software and hardware the government mandates just like aircraft manufacturers do. Basically ... if you want to get rich building planes, or cars, you will join our system. Simple as that.
I can't see that happening. The government can require standards and testing, but can't require a specific system in the automobile world. There are already many players and coalitions (VW + Intel + Nvidia, Waymo + Ford, Audi + Nvidia, Apple, Baidu, Tesla, etc.).

There's no way a government like U.S. would pick a winner here. Sharing data will have advantages but I don't see that being mandated.
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Old 01-27-18, 08:01 PM
  #1256  
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Look at aviation.
This is the standard that should be followed for ground vehicles as well.

Not many airplanes have been hacked, sure its possible, most of the aviation industry has been fly by wire since the early 1990's.

Last I checked, most airplanes still have pilots.

Explain that.
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Old 01-27-18, 09:28 PM
  #1257  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Last I checked, most airplanes still have pilots.

Explain that.
You need the pilot to tell you how the weather is at the destination.
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Old 01-28-18, 05:39 AM
  #1258  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
I can't see that happening.
Exactly. YOU cannot see it. Thankfully, a lot of people can.
Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
The government can require standards and testing, but can't require a specific system in the automobile world. There are already many players and coalitions (VW + Intel + Nvidia, Waymo + Ford, Audi + Nvidia, Apple, Baidu, Tesla, etc.).
yet, despite airplanes all being made by different manufacturers in different countries all speaking different languages ... airplanes do it.

Why can it happen with airplanes and not with cars?
Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
Sharing data will have advantages but I don't see that being mandated.
Really ... goback and re-read. Sharing data would have the benefit of almost entirely reducing accidents and maximizing efficiency of traffic flow so every trip would use the least amount of fuel and take the least amount of time.

Safety is the biggest issue. When all the cars are in communication, none of the cars will aim at the same space at the same time.
Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
This is the standard that should be followed for ground vehicles as well.

Not many airplanes have been hacked, sure its possible, most of the aviation industry has been fly by wire since the early 1990's.

Last I checked, most airplanes still have pilots.

Explain that.
People like the troglodytes and luddites who post here.

I have talked to people (online) who say that planes can pretty much do everything except high-risk, emergency landings on autopilot. Also, things like geese flying into the engines are a little tough to program for.

People just aren't ready for it. People feel better knowing that the guy with the calm, cool voice is in control. People are not ready to trust the autopilot ... even though the autopilot does the vast majority of the actual flying.

Also ... planes operate in three dimensions, and there really aren't a lot of "fender benders." Planes crash, everyone dies. Cars crash, twelve airbags inflate, people get out and flip out at each other and start taking cell-phone video.

A lot less to go wrong in only two dimensions, even though there are more variables as far as the action of other drivers/deer/pedestrians/cyclists.

My point isn't that AI for cars is ready right now----even though the various companies who are working on it have a few dozen cars using it Right Now and have for a few years (you might have driven by a robot-driven car and never known it.)

My point is, airplanes have managed it, to a great degree, and there is no reason to suspect that no one can possibly solve the problems of much slower vehicles following pre-defined paths.

I see this as people in buggy-whip factories telling each other that nothing could ever beat a good horse and buggy. The idea of looking into a mirror and seeing visions of places far away was Literally the stuff of fairy tales ... now we all face-time on computers we can fit in our pockets.

My father worked on computers in their infancy, when a computer was about as big as a house. To him, putting a computer in a single room was a huge breakthrough.

Now a google watch has ten times the computing power as NASA had for the trips to the moon.

People have no imagination and seem unable to even analyze what has Already been done. This is a bunch of people saying cars will never catch on---not people in a buggy-whip factory in 1899, but people in a Ford factory in Detroit in 2018.

Freaking Surgeons can do robot surgery via the internet across continents. But drive a car? No, you need a scared 16-year-old to do that---it's Hard.

There is Zero reason why cars cannot be trained to drive. no mechanical reasons, no technological reasons. The real issue is doing it it quickly and cost-effectively and before everyone else. People saying it can never happen have nothing to support their position but their own unwillingness to think differently.

Some people advance society. Some people just follow. Some try to prevent progress. The first group by and large ignores the other two groups.

"No scorch meat in fire! Bad, bad!" said the hominid who soon died of tapeworm infestation.
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Old 01-28-18, 07:11 AM
  #1259  
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AV technology will work well, when the majority of motorists are no longer on the road.

This is where this is headed.

Its more expensive than ever before to operate a vehicle, add in an endless list of regulations and eventually most people will give up on car ownership.

I threw in the towel years ago.
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Old 01-28-18, 10:19 AM
  #1260  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
Why can it happen with airplanes and not with cars?
Because an airplane can have a thousand times the lethal capacity of a car. Note that a small airplane with much less destructive capability has much less in the way of requirements.

Last edited by tyrion; 01-28-18 at 10:23 AM.
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Old 01-28-18, 11:04 AM
  #1261  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
Because an airplane can have a thousand times the lethal capacity of a car. Note that a small airplane with much less destructive capability has much less in the way of requirements.
yes but even a light plane has to have the same communication system and has to work with the same flight control system used at every airport in the world.

You try to land a light plane at an airport without responding to the tower. Unless you had radio failure, you won't be flying again soon.

Also ... whether or not light planes did or did not, the fact is the same: It CAN be done because it is already being done.

You have explained why it is not done for light planes right now---but it is, just not to the fullest degree. And that is why It Can be done with cars. And it will.
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Old 01-28-18, 11:15 AM
  #1262  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
yes but even a light plane has to have the same communication system and has to work with the same flight control system used at every airport in the world.

You try to land a light plane at an airport without responding to the tower. Unless you had radio failure, you won't be flying again soon.
A radio isn't required to fly a plane. Most airports require radio communications, but people fly planes without electronics all the time. And in situations in which radios are required, the performance of the radio is regulated, not its design.
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Old 01-28-18, 12:03 PM
  #1263  
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What a little research showed me was this: "there is no requirement for a radio in an airplane. NORDO (No Radio) aircraft are perfectly legal although in practice, they operate mostly out of non-towered fields. Operating out of a towered airport is still possible, but it requires prior coordination with the tower. Note please that flight in the SFRA around Washington DC does require a radio, and I have seen no procedures to allow for NORDO aircraft in this area."

So, as I said ... if a light plane with no radio just decided tio land at some airport without warning, it would be a problem ... and at some airports it is actually illegal.

But agian, you are missing the point in an effort to win a point.

Every plane has a transponder, apparently, and all planes with radios can communicate with any airport---there aren't competing standards as there are say, with bottom brackets. Whoever makes the transponder and radio equipment makes sure it all works with the global system. And if it can work with airplanes, it Can work with cars.

You have yet to successfully manage to assail that point.

Whatever. You have an opinion, I have an opinion. There is no fact because they are both opinions about a future time.

Is this really how you want to spend your life?

If so, you are welcome to do so. Sorry, I cannot continue to accompany you down that path.
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Old 01-28-18, 07:14 PM
  #1264  
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
humans evolved to walk, run & sit, not drive. not driving makes us more human.

I like to get there, because Moses never was allowed to.
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Old 01-28-18, 07:36 PM
  #1265  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
Self-driving cars, once they have been in action for a while and have dealt with cyclists and that information has been shared, Should be a lot better for cyclists.

Self-driving cars won't look past cyclists and pull into traffic, self-driving cars won't assume they can drive wherever and however they want, self-driving cars won't think they are the only vehicles on the road. They won't assume they always have the right-of-way at 4-way stops, or that they can merge and cyclists need to bail out or ride into the weeds (or across a three-lane road) to avoid them.

Self-driving cars won't make negative judgments about the value of cyclists because self-driving cars will be programmed not to hit Anything---dog, horse, toddler, mom pushing stroller, bike, motorcycle, or other cars.

The people purveying self-driving cars will know that in a jury trial, they would get screwed totally because it would be all the fear of Terminator-style robots killing citizens versus common sense. I'd bet most juries could be convinced that the crash data was rigged, or inconclusive, or would flat deny facts if a robot car ran over a mom with a stroller or something.

To prevent this robot cars will need amazing data recording, including multiple video cameras. And .... they would never want to lose a case because after one big settlement .....
I don't know,,once self driving cars are on the road , "rules of the road" may change, excluding cyclist from certain roads.
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Old 01-28-18, 08:53 PM
  #1266  
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Originally Posted by rossiny View Post
I don't know,,once self driving cars are on the road , "rules of the road" may change, excluding cyclist from certain roads.
That happens here, all the time. My personal favorite is when they change the direction of busy one way streets over night, causing total traffic chaos.

Granted, this is needed when there is constant construction, which is only just beginning.
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Old 01-29-18, 12:45 PM
  #1267  
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There are some really wild assumptions about learning and linkage out there. Competing technologies for AV will not share data and in most cases probably could not share data due to different internal logic and approaches to sensors, hardware, etc. There would have be be a standard message set, centralized broker and agreements and the industry is nowhere near that level of maturity, with and is at the cutthroat competition stage.

The average car (not AV) has a 100 million lines of code.... AV will have a lot more. this is not simple problem

AV cars will come, but not as fast or all encompassing as some think.

Another aspect that is forgotten is the urban/rural dimension. in the aviation analog...there are lot's of airports without towers and manned radios, some of which if you follow a certain procedure will turn the lights on at night....but in general it is total different world from major airports, tower controlled airspace.

and there is the privacy, and central control issue that will have some upset

and for some humor


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Old 01-29-18, 12:59 PM
  #1268  
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
There are some really wild assumptions about learning and linkage out there. Competing technologies for AV will not share data and in most cases probably could not share data due to different internal logic and approaches to sensors, hardware, etc. There would have be be a standard message set, centralized broker and agreements and the industry is nowhere near that level of maturity, with and is at the cutthroat competition stage.
Sharing mapping and heatmap data wouldn't be that difficult. Whether it makes business sense I can't say, but it might, especially if there's a consortium of smaller fish that need to compete against a big fish.
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Old 01-29-18, 02:07 PM
  #1269  
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Originally Posted by rossiny View Post
I don't know,,once self driving cars are on the road , "rules of the road" may change, excluding cyclist from certain roads.
This might actually be the best part of self-driving cars.

If new roads are built (or old ones somewhat modified) to allow for the benefits of self-driving cars (smaller merge areas, roundabouts instead of stoplights) some roads might be less safe for cyclists ... but since road reconstruction was underway, adding a dedicated bike lane separated from the auto traffic lanes wouldn't be hard.

A small barrier on the left (or on the right in the backwards and upside-down countries) and no barrier or curb on the right ... so cyclists could smoothly transition from bike lane to verge (or lawns or whatever) to rest, fix flats, avoid debris on the lane surface.

Could increase cyclist safety, be less for cars to cope with, and be relatively low-cost.

Sounds like the kind of idea almost everybody here would hate.
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Old 01-29-18, 02:32 PM
  #1270  
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Wouldn't be that difficult, shouldn't be that hard, of course that will be included, no problem!. Words to live by, eh?

Sugar pops and candy and free money for everybody, everything is possible, no, make that a sure thing when conducting discussions of the imagination.

Don't forget that the invention and market saturation of smartphones proves( ) that everything and anything that is imagined possible will quickly repeat the successful process with a similar timeline, especially if a lot of money is thrown at it with lots of publicity.
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Old 01-29-18, 02:34 PM
  #1271  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
This might actually be the best part of self-driving cars.

If new roads are built (or old ones somewhat modified) to allow for the benefits of self-driving cars (smaller merge areas, roundabouts instead of stoplights) some roads might be less safe for cyclists ... but since road reconstruction was underway, adding a dedicated bike lane separated from the auto traffic lanes wouldn't be hard.

A small barrier on the left (or on the right in the backwards and upside-down countries) and no barrier or curb on the right ... so cyclists could smoothly transition from bike lane to verge (or lawns or whatever) to rest, fix flats, avoid debris on the lane surface.

Could increase cyclist safety, be less for cars to cope with, and be relatively low-cost.

Sounds like the kind of idea almost everybody here would hate.
highly populated areas will seen increases in Mass transit, not roads/changes for AV....

AV is not panacea for all transportation problems.
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Old 01-29-18, 02:40 PM
  #1272  
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
highly populated areas will seen increases in Mass transit, not roads/changes for AV....

AV is not panacea for all transportation problems.
i don't know who thinks AV is going to Change very much about how people use cars. The big change will be fewer deaths because of stupid, impaired, and distracted drivers.

But ... pretty sure cars and car use will change a lot over the next few hundred years.
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Old 01-29-18, 06:30 PM
  #1273  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
But ... pretty sure cars and car use will change a lot over the next few hundred years.
Once they figure out the Heisenberg compensator....

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Old 01-30-18, 11:39 AM
  #1274  
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Originally Posted by rossiny View Post
I don't know,,once self driving cars are on the road , "rules of the road" may change, excluding cyclist from certain roads.
Everything I've read indicates all AVs are designed to work autonomously in place of human drivers on the same roads under the same rules. Everyone involved understands that for the foreseeable future human driven cars, bicyclists and pedestrians will be part of the traffic that AVs have to navigate, so they're designed to do just that. There is no reason to change the rules or the roads for them. It would be highly impractical, extremely expensive, and totally unnecessary. The rate at which private companies can develop AVs to operate efficiently on existing roads with the same rules is orders of magnitude faster than the government could ever get around to changing roads and rules. The idea that that might happen is pure fantasy.
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Old 01-30-18, 11:43 AM
  #1275  
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Google's autonomous car company strikes deal to buy 'thousands' of self-driving minivans from Fiat Chrysler
Google's self-driving vehicles arm, Waymo, has struck a massive deal with one of Detroit's biggest car manufacturers, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), to expand its fleet with "thousands" of new self-driving minivans, The Verge first reported.

FCA announced that it will supply Waymo with its Chrysler Pacifica models, which will join Waymo's existing pool of 600 FCA cars toward the end of the year.
Another huge step towards what I believe will be high prevalence of AVs in traffic by 2020 and their domination of traffic by 2025.
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