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Old 02-13-18, 11:01 AM   #1451
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But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
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Old 02-13-18, 11:31 AM   #1452
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But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
I think the net will be less.

Say today 20% use transit and 80% drive their own cars.

If the 20% abandon transit for pooled AVs, that increases traffic, but if even only half the 80% ditch their cars for the the pooled AVs, that more than makes up for it.

Unless you have a situation where the majority is using transit, like perhaps in Manhattan, I don't see a problem. But if congestion gets worse and the pooled AV trip takes that long, people will opt for transit. For example, I sometimes visit a certain city and have taken Uber and regretted it because I get stuck in traffic. Now I just take the transit train.

In the end, the path of least resistance wins.
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Old 02-13-18, 11:48 AM   #1453
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Why make up numbers when there are actual numbers?

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Old 02-13-18, 12:00 PM   #1454
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Nothing prevents someone who owns five cars from taking a driverless taxi to work, and everywhere else for that matter. The day driverless transportation services arrive in an area, personal car usage will begin to plummet. Within months or even weeks it can potentially change from nobody to nearly everybody using the driverless hailed services.

Think about it. What's to stop it?
Supply and demand, as in low supply of vehicles and little demand to replace personally driven vehicles for hailed taxi vehicles and lack of demand for shared rides with strangers. Plus a lack of a realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with a fleet of driverless taxis that are limited only to destinations, seasons and locations that fit the software/hardware scheme.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:05 PM   #1455
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How much will removing the driver save, even if the car does end up costing a bit more? Assume they cost Uber $15/hr, that is $360 per 24h day per vehicle they can save on labor costs. That alone will buy new cars in a hurry.
??
Do you really believe Uber AV vehicles will be rented out 24 hours a day, 365 days a year earning an extra $15 hour for every driver-less vehicle in the fleet? You are even more "optimistic" than ninety5rpm and just as dreamy about the economics of taxi service.

See for background:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensher...er-make-money/

If you can't open here are a few extracts:
"Last month, Uber reported a third-quarter loss of nearly $1.5 billion, bringing its 2017 year-to-date red ink to $3.2 billion. Losses of this magnitude are clearly not sustainable, and call for an explanation of why Uber has been unable to rein in ballooning costs and what it will need to do to survive, let alone prosper."

"But while the reputational damage from Kalanick’s win-at-all-costs ethos has certainly not helped Uber’s cause, it has masked a far deeper problem facing the company. Uber’s elephant in the room is that its business model is fundamentally broken. To understand why, it is useful to assess Uber’s business model in the context of the history of the taxi industry."

"The taxi industry that Uber is seeking to disrupt was never profitable when allowed to expand in unregulated markets, reflecting the industry’s low barriers to entry, high variable costs, low economies of scale and intense price competition -- and Uber’s current business model doesn’t fundamentally change these structural industry characteristics. It is indeed ironic that Uber’s fierce determination to avoid regulatory oversight condemns the company to unprofitable operations that the taxi industry experienced during its pre-regulatory era."

End of extracts.

No driver expenses for Uber may be more than washed out when Uber has to recoup though their customers' fares the purchase/finance, fuel, repair and maintain the vehicles, let alone earn a profit for its investors.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:24 PM   #1456
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Sounds like Palo Alto where Google cars have been running around for years with nary an incident.
Nope, very different (and I have cycled and driving in both places so that is a real observation)
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Old 02-13-18, 01:26 PM   #1457
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Supply and demand, as in low supply of vehicles and little demand to replace personally driven vehicles for hailed taxi vehicles and lack of demand for shared rides with strangers. Plus a lack of a realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with a fleet of driverless taxis that are limited only to destinations, seasons and locations that fit the software/hardware scheme.
The rollout will be incremental. It's not like they will be available everywhere all at once. But Bay Area, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta all appear to be contenders for early rollouts. And when they rollout to a given area, they will probably start with a supply adequate for that area, or, worst case, transition from human to AV cars as increase in AV supply permits.

Lack of demand for shared rides will be addressed with lower fares and private compartments and increased efficiency with higher participation rates. The more people you have willing to share between A and B the less out of the way the cars will have to go to pick up sharing riders, and the more appealing it becomes. It will snowball.

As to destinations serviced... in the metro areas like the ones I mentioned above, most people live and work within those metro areas. These Level 4 cars will be able to travel between any two destination within each metro area. Yes, the attorney who lives on a hog farm an hour out of the city will have to wait, but most everyone else will be covered.

Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.

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Old 02-13-18, 01:30 PM   #1458
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But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
More on this topic at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/26/n...icing-nyc.html

"Now a new report finds that ride-hailing cars are often driving on the city’s busiest streets with no passengers — in effect, creating congestion without any benefits. The report by Bruce Schaller, a former city transportation official, found that more than a third of ride-hailing cars and yellow taxis are empty at any given time during weekdays in Manhattan’s main business district."
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Old 02-13-18, 01:40 PM   #1459
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Nope, very different (and I have cycled and driving in both places so that is a real observation)
You mean not taking an Uber in a certain city is not a real observation?

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Old 02-13-18, 01:48 PM   #1460
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Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.
Which companies are planning on owning/operating these vehicles as taxis for profit other than Uber? I would be willing to bet against Uber's track record for making money disappear with losing billions yearly as their accepted standard of operation. And that is without even owning the rental fleet.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:57 PM   #1461
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The rollout will be incremental. It's not like they will be available everywhere all at once. But Bay Area, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta all appear to be contenders for early rollouts. And when they rollout to a given area, they will probably start with a supply adequate for that area, or, worst case, transition from human to AV cars as increase in AV supply permits.

Lack of demand for shared rides will be addressed with lower fares and private compartments and increased efficiency with higher participation rates. The more people you have willing to share between A and B the less out of the way the cars will have to go to pick up sharing riders, and the more appealing it becomes. It will snowball.

As to destinations serviced... in the metro areas like the ones I mentioned above, most people live and work within those metro areas. These Level 4 cars will be able to travel between any two destination within each metro area. Yes, the attorney who lives on a hog farm an hour out of the city will have to wait, but most everyone else will be covered.

Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.
Not dealing with reality in terms of time lines, shared usage and adoption rate. People simply are not going to jump en masse to shared rides and waiting for rides to be dispatched in areas that are currently single car centric

here is recent article about the issue in Silicon valley https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/...s-a-challenge/

it is not build it and they will come, more build it and in generations they will come.
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Old 02-13-18, 02:32 PM   #1462
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Not dealing with reality in terms of time lines, shared usage and adoption rate. People simply are not going to jump en masse to shared rides and waiting for rides to be dispatched in areas that are currently single car centric

here is recent article about the issue in Silicon valley https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/...s-a-challenge/

it is not build it and they will come, more build it and in generations they will come.
That article does not even mention AVs.

AVs, due to their high convenience and low fares, will change the dynamic entirely.

Anyone going to work is going to appreciate being chauffeured. It's way different from having to get to/from transit, or for paying full current fare on Uber to get to work.
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Old 02-13-18, 02:53 PM   #1463
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AVs, due to their high convenience and low fares, will change the dynamic entirely.
Do you really believe that if you chant the "low fares" mantra often enough it will somehow make it so? And profitable too?

What would stop some other enlightened entrepreneurs from stepping in with even lower fares in this unregulated free-for-all in a race to the bottom of the pit of profit-misery for all concerned?
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Old 02-13-18, 04:06 PM   #1464
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Do you really believe that if you chant the "low fares" mantra often enough it will somehow make it so? And profitable too?

What would stop some other enlightened entrepreneurs from stepping in with even lower fares in this unregulated free-for-all in a race to the bottom of the pit of profit-misery for all concerned?
Unsustainably low fares are unsustainable, by definition, so that's the limit of how low they can go. Investors are betting that Uber can pull out of its death spiral. I think it can too, by using AVs and pooling. But somebody will do it. Lyft and others are working on it. We'll see, and soon:

GM and Cruise on track to field a self-driving ride hailing service by 2019


I really don't see how the costs of driverless cars are going to be much different from the costs of taxi cabs, which are low compared to the cost of the human cab driver.



The driver alone is about half the cost, and another 15% or so is for stuff that will be lower or zero for AV taxi (special licenses and insurance).

Plus, I think these cars will be built to be especially efficient in terms of fuel usage and maintenance costs, so I think they costs will be closer to a quarter of a human-driven cab.

And that's before you add pooling to the mix, which should make fares cheaper than driving your own car.
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Old 02-15-18, 11:48 AM   #1465
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A big part of my prediction about self-driving cars is that they will be mostly operated as parts of riding hailing fleets, rather than be privately owned. Apparently the manufacturers see it this way too, given their lack of interest in participating in traditional car shows that cater to the private ownership market.

Self-driving cars whiz past the David L. Lawrence Convention in Downtown every day.

But there won't be any inside when the Pittsburgh International Auto Show opens Friday.

John Putzier, CEO of the Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association, which puts on the show, said he has reached out for the last two years to the autonomous car companies in town, Carnegie Mellon University and Google to see if they wanted to showcase their cars at an event expected to attract 50,000 people.

“They just are not interested in exhibiting,” Putzier said.

Putzier said this year he even offered to donate enough space for the cars to drive in circles or do other maneuvers to showcase self-driving capabilities. The lack of interest has left Putzier wondering if self-driving car companies see value in car shows like the one in Pittsburgh.

“They just seem to be in a different place,” Putzier said.
What you won't see at the 2018 Pittsburgh International Auto Show | TribLIVE
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Old 02-15-18, 12:09 PM   #1466
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A big part of my prediction about self-driving cars is that they will be mostly operated as parts of riding hailing fleets, rather than be privately owned. Apparently the manufacturers see it this way too, given their lack of interest in participating in traditional car shows that cater to the private ownership market.
Probably because they also have no product available to display or demonstrate that is anywhere close to being suitable for the private ownership market.

Maybe in the future, someday; maybe not.
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Old 02-15-18, 01:13 PM   #1467
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Probably because they also have no product available to display or demonstrate that is anywhere close to being suitable for the private ownership market.

Maybe in the future, someday; maybe not.
I know, why would anyone pass on the chance to “exhibit” at the internationally known Pittsburgh International Auto Show.

LOL.

Probably you are BOTH wrong.

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Old 02-15-18, 01:25 PM   #1468
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I know, why would anyone pass on the chance to “exhibit” at the internationally known Pittsburgh International Auto Show.

LOL.

Probably you are BOTH wrong.

-mr. bill
OK Smart Fellow, what International Auto Shows are the manufacturers and/or promoters for self driving cars displaying their ready or soon to be available product for the car driving public? Perhaps in Boston, eh?
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Old 02-15-18, 03:39 PM   #1469
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Boston, another “international” show?

But you have the Iowa Caucuses to look forward to every four years, and then....

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Old 02-15-18, 04:59 PM   #1470
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Boston, another “international” show?
Doesn't Boston have an auto show? Does it include self driving cars? If not why not?

Does it feature only domestic marques or only vehicles manufactured/assembled in the U.S.?

Feel to free to be "clever"and respond with some more cryptic nonsense.
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Old 02-15-18, 06:00 PM   #1471
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Doesn't Boston have an auto show? Does it include self driving cars? If not why not?

Does it feature only domestic marques or only vehicles manufactured/assembled in the U.S.?

Feel to free to be "clever"and respond with some more cryptic nonsense.
Name the important auto shows.

I’ll wait....

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Old 02-15-18, 06:09 PM   #1472
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Name the important auto shows.

I’ll wait....

-mr. bill
That is not the issue. Name ANY auto show, anywgere that the industry promoters of self driving cars put on display that are either ready now or being promoted as soon to be available to the car buying public? IF none, why not?

Bicycle riders can rest easy for quite awhile without worrying about encountering them in the wild other than those bring tested with human (hopefully attentive) oversight.

Continue beating around the bush with the usual evasions if you choose not to divulge what you think you know.
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Old 02-15-18, 06:19 PM   #1473
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That is not the issue. Name ANY auto show, anywgere that the industry promoters of self driving cars put on display that are either ready now or being promoted as soon to be available to the car buying public? IF none, why not?

Bicycle riders can rest easy for quite awhile without worrying about encountering them in the wild other than those bring tested with human (hopefully attentive) oversight.

Continue beating around the bush with the usual evasions if you choose not to divulge what you think you know.
Because they have no plans to sell Level 4 AVs as personal cars in the near future!

Level 5 is really necessary for personal vehicles, and those are still an unknown number of years away. But Level 4 is perfectly suitable for hailed services, and that's where they are aiming. Naturally.
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Old 02-15-18, 06:31 PM   #1474
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That is not the issue. Name ANY auto show, anywgere that the industry promoters of self driving cars put on display that are either ready now or being promoted as soon to be available to the car buying public? IF none, why not?

Bicycle riders can rest easy for quite awhile without worrying about encountering them in the wild other than those bring tested with human (hopefully attentive) oversight.

Continue beating around the bush with the usual evasions if you choose not to divulge what you think you know.
Deep-fried butter on a stick debuted at the:
  • 2009 Tokyo Motor Show?
  • 2011 Iowa State Fair?

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Old 02-15-18, 07:53 PM   #1475
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Anyone going to work is going to appreciate being chauffeured.
Some people prefer to ride their bicycles to work, crazy huh?

All those people who drive themselves to work are doing it wrong.

Carry on though, all of this dream talk is quite entertaining.
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