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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Old 02-12-18, 06:54 PM
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Ninety5rpm
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
You know, It would really help if you read and comprehended what is posted. No where did it suggest that driving intelligence was not at vehicle level. The company in the link was proposing having remote drivers available for those situations where onboard driving intelligence is not able to resolve a situation, and having the remote driver take control, resolve the situation and then give control back

a simple example of one that I see almost every day is a low speed 4 way stop, where "nice drivers" wave other drivers who have the right of way through. I have not found any reference to AV recognizing a "nice driver wave" as a valid bit of decision information

and for about 6 blocks leading to that 4 way stop the street is so narrow that if cars are parked on either side it is a one way street and drivers have to defer and take turns. I would truly like to see Waymo try their technology in this area.
Really? You think I didn't get that? Please. Give me a break. The point is there are dead spots everywhere and you can't have a system that relies on the ability to communicate with a human operator in real time because having such an ability is not reliable.

The other point is that this is the guy who knows how this stuff works saying this. The technology at Google and now at Aurora can deal with waving drivers; believe me.

Back in 2016 they already could recognize cyclist hand signals:
Google's Self-Driving Cars Can Recognize Cyclist Hand Signals

They are making decisions in fractions of seconds. You can't have these systems throw up their hands, send an SOS message hoping one of the carriers will get the message across, get the video live to the human, wait for the human to comprehend the situation and the problem, and then finally issue commands. It's a really dumb idea. It won't fly. The cars have to be reliable and responsive in real time without this stuff. Certainly for something as mundane as understanding a driver's wave.
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Old 02-12-18, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post

a simple example of one that I see almost every day is a low speed 4 way stop, where "nice drivers" wave other drivers who have the right of way through. I have not found any reference to AV recognizing a "nice driver wave" as a valid bit of decision information

and for about 6 blocks leading to that 4 way stop the street is so narrow that if cars are parked on either side it is a one way street and drivers have to defer and take turns. I would truly like to see Waymo try their technology in this area.
I'd love to see us ticket and strip of licenses all those folks who can't be bothered to operate according to the law, creating these scenarios. Arguing that AVs will have an issue because humans can't follow the law is simply a reason we need to remove human drivers.
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Old 02-12-18, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk View Post
I'd love to see us ticket and strip of licenses all those folks who can't be bothered to operate according to the law, creating these scenarios. Arguing that AVs will have an issue because humans can't follow the law is simply a reason we need to remove human drivers.
Do really think that will happen, when we cannot even truly restrict multiple offender drunk drivers, where there are no controls preventing an unlicensed, uninsured driver from operating a vehicle?

beyond that is is not even about who cannot follow a law, in some cases it is really difficult to determine who stopped first at stop sign..... so people hesitate out of safety.

People need to get real about AV in terms of
  • current limitations of the technolgy, no matter how cool is its
  • limitations of the legal, regulatory, insurance areas
  • acceptance by users
  • time frame to be broadly used (generational, not years )
  • all the areas that it will not be commercially or crtical mass practical
  • etc

it will happen, but will not happen as fast or to the extent that marketing types think
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Old 02-12-18, 07:39 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
Do really think that will happen, when we cannot even truly restrict multiple offender drunk drivers, where there are no controls preventing an unlicensed, uninsured driver from operating a vehicle?

beyond that is is not even about who cannot follow a law, in some cases it is really difficult to determine who stopped first at stop sign..... so people hesitate out of safety.
...
  • all the areas that it will not be commercially or crtical mass practical
...

it will happen, but will not happen as fast or to the extent that marketing types think
No I don't, but its equally silly to say the technology can't work because of faults on the human side. The times I am waved through a stop sign because it was a dead heat v the times I am waved through when it clearly is not my turn is negligible.

As to areas it won't be commercially viable? Is Uber huge right now? Yes. Yet, it is not offered where I am currently at. That doesn't mean it isn't wildly successful, it means that it has found its use case. AVs know what they're targeting, they can easily be successful before we even get to level five.

If I had to side with the timelines of either the marketing folks or the detractors, I'm still siding closer to marketers.
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Old 02-12-18, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk View Post
No I don't, but its equally silly to say the technology can't work because of faults on the human side. The times I am waved through a stop sign because it was a dead heat v the times I am waved through when it clearly is not my turn is negligible.

As to areas it won't be commercially viable? Is Uber huge right now? Yes. Yet, it is not offered where I am currently at. That doesn't mean it isn't wildly successful, it means that it has found its use case. AVs know what they're targeting, they can easily be successful before we even get to level five.

If I had to side with the timelines of either the marketing folks or the detractors, I'm still siding closer to marketers.
Not saying that technology can't work, just saying there are still some decent size issues and human behavior is not going to change so technology is going have to handle or avoid those situations.

this is a very specific situation with 5 schools, parents taking kids to school, kids walking to school, kids biking to school, adults biking and driving not to school. I see at least 2 - 5 instances a week on the waving through, who is first, whose turn is next on the oneway by default street.

don't disagree, but many suggest AV will replace personal vehicle even in rural, bad weather areas in a few years.

time will tell on timing
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Old 02-12-18, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk View Post
No I don't, but its equally silly to say the technology can't work because of faults on the human side. The times I am waved through a stop sign because it was a dead heat v the times I am waved through when it clearly is not my turn is negligible.

As to areas it won't be commercially viable? Is Uber huge right now? Yes. Yet, it is not offered where I am currently at. That doesn't mean it isn't wildly successful, it means that it has found its use case. AVs know what they're targeting, they can easily be successful before we even get to level five.

If I had to side with the timelines of either the marketing folks or the detractors, I'm still siding closer to marketers.
and... There's the rub. The main reason this AV technology is so far a fail is because of human inter action, where humans are not following the rules... and thus,... the solution will end up to be, to get rid of the human drivers. through a MUCH tougher licencing requirement..
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Old 02-12-18, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr View Post
and... There's the rub. The main reason this AV technology is so far a fail is because of human inter action, where humans are not following the rules... and thus,... the solution will end up to be, to get rid of the human drivers. through a MUCH tougher licencing requirement..
Humans get in the way in two ways.

First, with driver-assist systems (not self-driving), they don't take over when they're supposed to. Level 4 cars without steering wheels will address this.

Second, they have a tendency to rear-end AVs. Oh, well. We've lived with rear-enders this long, a few more decades won't kill us.

I don't see a need to forcefully get rid of human drivers. It will happen organically.
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Old 02-12-18, 08:35 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
Not saying that technology can't work, just saying there are still some decent size issues and human behavior is not going to change so technology is going have to handle or avoid those situations.

this is a very specific situation with 5 schools, parents taking kids to school, kids walking to school, kids biking to school, adults biking and driving not to school. I see at least 2 - 5 instances a week on the waving through, who is first, whose turn is next on the oneway by default street.

don't disagree, but many suggest AV will replace personal vehicle even in rural, bad weather areas in a few years.

time will tell on timing
Sounds like Palo Alto where Google cars have been running around for years with nary an incident.
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Old 02-12-18, 09:09 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk View Post
As to areas it won't be commercially viable? Is Uber huge right now? Yes. Yet, it is not offered where I am currently at. That doesn't mean it isn't wildly successful, it means that it has found its use case. AVs know what they're targeting, they can easily be successful before we even get to level five.
All depends on what you consider the appropriate metrics for measuring a "wildly successful" business organization.
Is your idea of wildly successful burning up investors' money at a prodigious rate quarter after quarter, year after year with no light at the end of the tunnel?

Perhaps wildly successfulwill be a payoff through an IPO bonanza for the founders and early investors at the expense of the new shareholders who will be left owning a company with a history of inability/unwillingness to comply with laws and regulations, contempt for its employees and customers, low ethical standards and little hope of ever running a profitable business with or without human drivers.
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Old 02-12-18, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
Not saying that technology can't work, just saying there are still some decent size issues and human behavior is not going to change so technology is going have to handle or avoid those situations.

this is a very specific situation with 5 schools, parents taking kids to school, kids walking to school, kids biking to school, adults biking and driving not to school. I see at least 2 - 5 instances a week on the waving through, who is first, whose turn is next on the oneway by default street.
Sort of like arguing that cars will never replace horses because there's a bridge in your town that can't handle the weight of a car.

When cars came along, people surely noted those things they could do on their horse which a car couldn't deal with. Horses are so much more versatile and human behavior is so well established that cars would take generations to ever see widespread use. But in fact human behavior was readily modified as cars took over much more rapidly than some would have thought possible. On a more personal level, I never believed that CDs could so readily replace record albums. Vinyl was too ingrained in the culture. Now kids barely know what CDs are.

Behavior can change quite rapidly on the societal level.

And the simple reality is a whole lot of people are barely capable and still manage to handle these "challenges" you pose as being so difficult to surmount. And these days they do it while tapping on their smart phone. If the least capable of mere humans can deal with these obstacles then smarter, faster and more observant machines are surely up to the task.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:08 AM
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But the technology isn't going to become commonplace anytime soon unless it's mandated to buy a new vehicle or retrofit the one you have. There are a few million automobiles currently in use, way more really.


As an example, there are dozens of times more RADIOS than the total population number of owners in the US. This means AM and FM are firmly entrenched in the broadcasting makeup, and because they are usually a bit more durable than TV sets you have people who repair and use tubed radios that are 50 to nearly 90 years old. Those 90 year old AM sets still receive a good portion of the current 540-1710 kHz band found in North America with similar bands across the world (although AM as well as analog FM are starting to disappear in Europe).


You can still legally operate a 1908 car, although it won't be much for the freeways.


This is a pipe dream. You will be dealing with humans driving cars for years after you and I are dead.


Human operation is not going away. Whether it would make cycling safer or not is moot because human error will still be a problem, and on both sides.


Cycling safety works both ways. Keep an eye and ear out for yourself, nothing will negate that.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:12 AM
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Oh, and a lot of self-driving cars on one road causes as much congestion as before. AI will not improve this problem in the end. More multiple passenger excursions with good planning will to a degree. Freeways are still no good place for bicycles.
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Old 02-13-18, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast View Post
But the technology isn't going to become commonplace anytime soon unless it's mandated to buy a new vehicle or retrofit the one you have.
Nothing prevents someone who owns five cars from taking a driverless taxi to work, and everywhere else for that matter. The day driverless transportation services arrive in an area, personal car usage will begin to plummet. Within months or even weeks it can potentially change from nobody to nearly everybody using the driverless hailed services.

Think about it. What's to stop it?
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Old 02-13-18, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast View Post
Oh, and a lot of self-driving cars on one road causes as much congestion as before. AI will not improve this problem in the end. More multiple passenger excursions with good planning will to a degree. Freeways are still no good place for bicycles.
A lot of repetition could be saved in this thread if newcomers would review the previous pages to catch up.

But since I'm posting anyway, services like Uber and Lyft already make car pooling with reduced fares more viable. As driverless hailing services will drastically drop fare prices, many more people will use them, and pooling will become even more viable. Pooling will reduce congestion.
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Old 02-13-18, 11:01 AM
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But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
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Old 02-13-18, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
I think the net will be less.

Say today 20% use transit and 80% drive their own cars.

If the 20% abandon transit for pooled AVs, that increases traffic, but if even only half the 80% ditch their cars for the the pooled AVs, that more than makes up for it.

Unless you have a situation where the majority is using transit, like perhaps in Manhattan, I don't see a problem. But if congestion gets worse and the pooled AV trip takes that long, people will opt for transit. For example, I sometimes visit a certain city and have taken Uber and regretted it because I get stuck in traffic. Now I just take the transit train.

In the end, the path of least resistance wins.
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Old 02-13-18, 11:48 AM
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Why make up numbers when there are actual numbers?

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Old 02-13-18, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm View Post
Nothing prevents someone who owns five cars from taking a driverless taxi to work, and everywhere else for that matter. The day driverless transportation services arrive in an area, personal car usage will begin to plummet. Within months or even weeks it can potentially change from nobody to nearly everybody using the driverless hailed services.

Think about it. What's to stop it?
Supply and demand, as in low supply of vehicles and little demand to replace personally driven vehicles for hailed taxi vehicles and lack of demand for shared rides with strangers. Plus a lack of a realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with a fleet of driverless taxis that are limited only to destinations, seasons and locations that fit the software/hardware scheme.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk View Post
How much will removing the driver save, even if the car does end up costing a bit more? Assume they cost Uber $15/hr, that is $360 per 24h day per vehicle they can save on labor costs. That alone will buy new cars in a hurry.
??
Do you really believe Uber AV vehicles will be rented out 24 hours a day, 365 days a year earning an extra $15 hour for every driver-less vehicle in the fleet? You are even more "optimistic" than ninety5rpm and just as dreamy about the economics of taxi service.

See for background:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensher...er-make-money/

If you can't open here are a few extracts:
"Last month, Uber reported a third-quarter loss of nearly $1.5 billion, bringing its 2017 year-to-date red ink to $3.2 billion. Losses of this magnitude are clearly not sustainable, and call for an explanation of why Uber has been unable to rein in ballooning costs and what it will need to do to survive, let alone prosper."

"But while the reputational damage from Kalanick’s win-at-all-costs ethos has certainly not helped Uber’s cause, it has masked a far deeper problem facing the company. Uber’s elephant in the room is that its business model is fundamentally broken. To understand why, it is useful to assess Uber’s business model in the context of the history of the taxi industry."

"The taxi industry that Uber is seeking to disrupt was never profitable when allowed to expand in unregulated markets, reflecting the industry’s low barriers to entry, high variable costs, low economies of scale and intense price competition -- and Uber’s current business model doesn’t fundamentally change these structural industry characteristics. It is indeed ironic that Uber’s fierce determination to avoid regulatory oversight condemns the company to unprofitable operations that the taxi industry experienced during its pre-regulatory era."

End of extracts.

No driver expenses for Uber may be more than washed out when Uber has to recoup though their customers' fares the purchase/finance, fuel, repair and maintain the vehicles, let alone earn a profit for its investors.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm View Post
Sounds like Palo Alto where Google cars have been running around for years with nary an incident.
Nope, very different (and I have cycled and driving in both places so that is a real observation)
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Old 02-13-18, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Supply and demand, as in low supply of vehicles and little demand to replace personally driven vehicles for hailed taxi vehicles and lack of demand for shared rides with strangers. Plus a lack of a realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with a fleet of driverless taxis that are limited only to destinations, seasons and locations that fit the software/hardware scheme.
The rollout will be incremental. It's not like they will be available everywhere all at once. But Bay Area, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta all appear to be contenders for early rollouts. And when they rollout to a given area, they will probably start with a supply adequate for that area, or, worst case, transition from human to AV cars as increase in AV supply permits.

Lack of demand for shared rides will be addressed with lower fares and private compartments and increased efficiency with higher participation rates. The more people you have willing to share between A and B the less out of the way the cars will have to go to pick up sharing riders, and the more appealing it becomes. It will snowball.

As to destinations serviced... in the metro areas like the ones I mentioned above, most people live and work within those metro areas. These Level 4 cars will be able to travel between any two destination within each metro area. Yes, the attorney who lives on a hog farm an hour out of the city will have to wait, but most everyone else will be covered.

Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.

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Old 02-13-18, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
More on this topic at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/26/n...icing-nyc.html

"Now a new report finds that ride-hailing cars are often driving on the city’s busiest streets with no passengers — in effect, creating congestion without any benefits. The report by Bruce Schaller, a former city transportation official, found that more than a third of ride-hailing cars and yellow taxis are empty at any given time during weekdays in Manhattan’s main business district."
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Old 02-13-18, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad View Post
Nope, very different (and I have cycled and driving in both places so that is a real observation)
You mean not taking an Uber in a certain city is not a real observation?

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Old 02-13-18, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm View Post
Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.
Which companies are planning on owning/operating these vehicles as taxis for profit other than Uber? I would be willing to bet against Uber's track record for making money disappear with losing billions yearly as their accepted standard of operation. And that is without even owning the rental fleet.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm View Post
The rollout will be incremental. It's not like they will be available everywhere all at once. But Bay Area, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta all appear to be contenders for early rollouts. And when they rollout to a given area, they will probably start with a supply adequate for that area, or, worst case, transition from human to AV cars as increase in AV supply permits.

Lack of demand for shared rides will be addressed with lower fares and private compartments and increased efficiency with higher participation rates. The more people you have willing to share between A and B the less out of the way the cars will have to go to pick up sharing riders, and the more appealing it becomes. It will snowball.

As to destinations serviced... in the metro areas like the ones I mentioned above, most people live and work within those metro areas. These Level 4 cars will be able to travel between any two destination within each metro area. Yes, the attorney who lives on a hog farm an hour out of the city will have to wait, but most everyone else will be covered.

Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.
Not dealing with reality in terms of time lines, shared usage and adoption rate. People simply are not going to jump en masse to shared rides and waiting for rides to be dispatched in areas that are currently single car centric

here is recent article about the issue in Silicon valley https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/...s-a-challenge/

it is not build it and they will come, more build it and in generations they will come.
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