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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 02-12-18, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
Not saying that technology can't work, just saying there are still some decent size issues and human behavior is not going to change so technology is going have to handle or avoid those situations.

this is a very specific situation with 5 schools, parents taking kids to school, kids walking to school, kids biking to school, adults biking and driving not to school. I see at least 2 - 5 instances a week on the waving through, who is first, whose turn is next on the oneway by default street.
Sort of like arguing that cars will never replace horses because there's a bridge in your town that can't handle the weight of a car.

When cars came along, people surely noted those things they could do on their horse which a car couldn't deal with. Horses are so much more versatile and human behavior is so well established that cars would take generations to ever see widespread use. But in fact human behavior was readily modified as cars took over much more rapidly than some would have thought possible. On a more personal level, I never believed that CDs could so readily replace record albums. Vinyl was too ingrained in the culture. Now kids barely know what CDs are.

Behavior can change quite rapidly on the societal level.

And the simple reality is a whole lot of people are barely capable and still manage to handle these "challenges" you pose as being so difficult to surmount. And these days they do it while tapping on their smart phone. If the least capable of mere humans can deal with these obstacles then smarter, faster and more observant machines are surely up to the task.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:08 AM
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But the technology isn't going to become commonplace anytime soon unless it's mandated to buy a new vehicle or retrofit the one you have. There are a few million automobiles currently in use, way more really.


As an example, there are dozens of times more RADIOS than the total population number of owners in the US. This means AM and FM are firmly entrenched in the broadcasting makeup, and because they are usually a bit more durable than TV sets you have people who repair and use tubed radios that are 50 to nearly 90 years old. Those 90 year old AM sets still receive a good portion of the current 540-1710 kHz band found in North America with similar bands across the world (although AM as well as analog FM are starting to disappear in Europe).


You can still legally operate a 1908 car, although it won't be much for the freeways.


This is a pipe dream. You will be dealing with humans driving cars for years after you and I are dead.


Human operation is not going away. Whether it would make cycling safer or not is moot because human error will still be a problem, and on both sides.


Cycling safety works both ways. Keep an eye and ear out for yourself, nothing will negate that.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:12 AM
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Oh, and a lot of self-driving cars on one road causes as much congestion as before. AI will not improve this problem in the end. More multiple passenger excursions with good planning will to a degree. Freeways are still no good place for bicycles.
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Old 02-13-18, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
But the technology isn't going to become commonplace anytime soon unless it's mandated to buy a new vehicle or retrofit the one you have.
Nothing prevents someone who owns five cars from taking a driverless taxi to work, and everywhere else for that matter. The day driverless transportation services arrive in an area, personal car usage will begin to plummet. Within months or even weeks it can potentially change from nobody to nearly everybody using the driverless hailed services.

Think about it. What's to stop it?
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Old 02-13-18, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
Oh, and a lot of self-driving cars on one road causes as much congestion as before. AI will not improve this problem in the end. More multiple passenger excursions with good planning will to a degree. Freeways are still no good place for bicycles.
A lot of repetition could be saved in this thread if newcomers would review the previous pages to catch up.

But since I'm posting anyway, services like Uber and Lyft already make car pooling with reduced fares more viable. As driverless hailing services will drastically drop fare prices, many more people will use them, and pooling will become even more viable. Pooling will reduce congestion.
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Old 02-13-18, 11:01 AM
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But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
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Old 02-13-18, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
I think the net will be less.

Say today 20% use transit and 80% drive their own cars.

If the 20% abandon transit for pooled AVs, that increases traffic, but if even only half the 80% ditch their cars for the the pooled AVs, that more than makes up for it.

Unless you have a situation where the majority is using transit, like perhaps in Manhattan, I don't see a problem. But if congestion gets worse and the pooled AV trip takes that long, people will opt for transit. For example, I sometimes visit a certain city and have taken Uber and regretted it because I get stuck in traffic. Now I just take the transit train.

In the end, the path of least resistance wins.
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Old 02-13-18, 11:48 AM
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Why make up numbers when there are actual numbers?

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Old 02-13-18, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Nothing prevents someone who owns five cars from taking a driverless taxi to work, and everywhere else for that matter. The day driverless transportation services arrive in an area, personal car usage will begin to plummet. Within months or even weeks it can potentially change from nobody to nearly everybody using the driverless hailed services.

Think about it. What's to stop it?
Supply and demand, as in low supply of vehicles and little demand to replace personally driven vehicles for hailed taxi vehicles and lack of demand for shared rides with strangers. Plus a lack of a realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with a fleet of driverless taxis that are limited only to destinations, seasons and locations that fit the software/hardware scheme.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
How much will removing the driver save, even if the car does end up costing a bit more? Assume they cost Uber $15/hr, that is $360 per 24h day per vehicle they can save on labor costs. That alone will buy new cars in a hurry.
??
Do you really believe Uber AV vehicles will be rented out 24 hours a day, 365 days a year earning an extra $15 hour for every driver-less vehicle in the fleet? You are even more "optimistic" than ninety5rpm and just as dreamy about the economics of taxi service.

See for background:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensher...er-make-money/

If you can't open here are a few extracts:
"Last month, Uber reported a third-quarter loss of nearly $1.5 billion, bringing its 2017 year-to-date red ink to $3.2 billion. Losses of this magnitude are clearly not sustainable, and call for an explanation of why Uber has been unable to rein in ballooning costs and what it will need to do to survive, let alone prosper."

"But while the reputational damage from Kalanick’s win-at-all-costs ethos has certainly not helped Uber’s cause, it has masked a far deeper problem facing the company. Uber’s elephant in the room is that its business model is fundamentally broken. To understand why, it is useful to assess Uber’s business model in the context of the history of the taxi industry."

"The taxi industry that Uber is seeking to disrupt was never profitable when allowed to expand in unregulated markets, reflecting the industry’s low barriers to entry, high variable costs, low economies of scale and intense price competition -- and Uber’s current business model doesn’t fundamentally change these structural industry characteristics. It is indeed ironic that Uber’s fierce determination to avoid regulatory oversight condemns the company to unprofitable operations that the taxi industry experienced during its pre-regulatory era."

End of extracts.

No driver expenses for Uber may be more than washed out when Uber has to recoup though their customers' fares the purchase/finance, fuel, repair and maintain the vehicles, let alone earn a profit for its investors.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Sounds like Palo Alto where Google cars have been running around for years with nary an incident.
Nope, very different (and I have cycled and driving in both places so that is a real observation)
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Old 02-13-18, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Supply and demand, as in low supply of vehicles and little demand to replace personally driven vehicles for hailed taxi vehicles and lack of demand for shared rides with strangers. Plus a lack of a realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with a fleet of driverless taxis that are limited only to destinations, seasons and locations that fit the software/hardware scheme.
The rollout will be incremental. It's not like they will be available everywhere all at once. But Bay Area, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta all appear to be contenders for early rollouts. And when they rollout to a given area, they will probably start with a supply adequate for that area, or, worst case, transition from human to AV cars as increase in AV supply permits.

Lack of demand for shared rides will be addressed with lower fares and private compartments and increased efficiency with higher participation rates. The more people you have willing to share between A and B the less out of the way the cars will have to go to pick up sharing riders, and the more appealing it becomes. It will snowball.

As to destinations serviced... in the metro areas like the ones I mentioned above, most people live and work within those metro areas. These Level 4 cars will be able to travel between any two destination within each metro area. Yes, the attorney who lives on a hog farm an hour out of the city will have to wait, but most everyone else will be covered.

Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.

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Old 02-13-18, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
But if people ditch public trans for small batch fleets of AVs there could be more traffic
https://www.citylab.com/transportati...c-woes/548798/
More on this topic at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/26/n...icing-nyc.html

"Now a new report finds that ride-hailing cars are often driving on the city’s busiest streets with no passengers — in effect, creating congestion without any benefits. The report by Bruce Schaller, a former city transportation official, found that more than a third of ride-hailing cars and yellow taxis are empty at any given time during weekdays in Manhattan’s main business district."
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Old 02-13-18, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
Nope, very different (and I have cycled and driving in both places so that is a real observation)
You mean not taking an Uber in a certain city is not a real observation?

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Old 02-13-18, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.
Which companies are planning on owning/operating these vehicles as taxis for profit other than Uber? I would be willing to bet against Uber's track record for making money disappear with losing billions yearly as their accepted standard of operation. And that is without even owning the rental fleet.
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Old 02-13-18, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The rollout will be incremental. It's not like they will be available everywhere all at once. But Bay Area, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta all appear to be contenders for early rollouts. And when they rollout to a given area, they will probably start with a supply adequate for that area, or, worst case, transition from human to AV cars as increase in AV supply permits.

Lack of demand for shared rides will be addressed with lower fares and private compartments and increased efficiency with higher participation rates. The more people you have willing to share between A and B the less out of the way the cars will have to go to pick up sharing riders, and the more appealing it becomes. It will snowball.

As to destinations serviced... in the metro areas like the ones I mentioned above, most people live and work within those metro areas. These Level 4 cars will be able to travel between any two destination within each metro area. Yes, the attorney who lives on a hog farm an hour out of the city will have to wait, but most everyone else will be covered.

Dozens of companies are betting billions against your contention that there is no realistic business plan for making money operating hailed services with AVs. But maybe you're smarter than all of them. Somehow I doubt that.
Not dealing with reality in terms of time lines, shared usage and adoption rate. People simply are not going to jump en masse to shared rides and waiting for rides to be dispatched in areas that are currently single car centric

here is recent article about the issue in Silicon valley https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/...s-a-challenge/

it is not build it and they will come, more build it and in generations they will come.
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Old 02-13-18, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
Not dealing with reality in terms of time lines, shared usage and adoption rate. People simply are not going to jump en masse to shared rides and waiting for rides to be dispatched in areas that are currently single car centric

here is recent article about the issue in Silicon valley https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/...s-a-challenge/

it is not build it and they will come, more build it and in generations they will come.
That article does not even mention AVs.

AVs, due to their high convenience and low fares, will change the dynamic entirely.

Anyone going to work is going to appreciate being chauffeured. It's way different from having to get to/from transit, or for paying full current fare on Uber to get to work.
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Old 02-13-18, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
AVs, due to their high convenience and low fares, will change the dynamic entirely.
Do you really believe that if you chant the "low fares" mantra often enough it will somehow make it so? And profitable too?

What would stop some other enlightened entrepreneurs from stepping in with even lower fares in this unregulated free-for-all in a race to the bottom of the pit of profit-misery for all concerned?
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Old 02-13-18, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
It sounds like by 2020 serious deployments will be beginning.
You should get a job writing press releases for Elio.
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Old 02-13-18, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
You should get a job writing press releases for Elio.
No need for ninety5rpm to write new press releases, he does just fine by cutting and pasting them here.

Then again, he does like to add embellishments; don't know where I have read of any serious press release from anyone else touting the alleged irresistibly low fare rates of driver less rental vehicles/taxis guaranteed to wrest motorists away from their current mode of travel
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Old 02-13-18, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Do you really believe that if you chant the "low fares" mantra often enough it will somehow make it so? And profitable too?

What would stop some other enlightened entrepreneurs from stepping in with even lower fares in this unregulated free-for-all in a race to the bottom of the pit of profit-misery for all concerned?
Unsustainably low fares are unsustainable, by definition, so that's the limit of how low they can go. Investors are betting that Uber can pull out of its death spiral. I think it can too, by using AVs and pooling. But somebody will do it. Lyft and others are working on it. We'll see, and soon:

GM and Cruise on track to field a self-driving ride hailing service by 2019


I really don't see how the costs of driverless cars are going to be much different from the costs of taxi cabs, which are low compared to the cost of the human cab driver.



The driver alone is about half the cost, and another 15% or so is for stuff that will be lower or zero for AV taxi (special licenses and insurance).

Plus, I think these cars will be built to be especially efficient in terms of fuel usage and maintenance costs, so I think they costs will be closer to a quarter of a human-driven cab.

And that's before you add pooling to the mix, which should make fares cheaper than driving your own car.
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Old 02-13-18, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
No need for ninety5rpm to write new press releases, he does just fine by cutting and pasting them here.

Then again, he does like to add embellishments; don't know where I have read of any serious press release from anyone else touting the alleged irresistibly low fare rates of driver less rental vehicles/taxis guaranteed to wrest motorists away from their current mode of travel
Connect the dots. It's obvious.

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Old 02-13-18, 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
No need for ninety5rpm to write new press releases, he does just fine by cutting and pasting them here.

Then again, he does like to add embellishments; don't know where I have read of any serious press release from anyone else touting the alleged irresistibly low fare rates of driver less rental vehicles/taxis guaranteed to wrest motorists away from their current mode of travel
Here's a cut and paste:

Research from investment firm Ark Invest has estimated autonomous taxis will cost $0.35 per mile. Rides today typically run a few dollars for each mile.

According to Ark Invest analyst Tasha Keeney, someone taking a shared ride in a self-driving vehicle could experience even cheaper rides. But some riders may not see a point in riding with strangers if it's only saving them 5% on an already low fare, Keeney added.
How free self-driving car rides could change everything - Sep. 1, 2017

I don't get why they say a shared ride would save only 5% off the fare. It should be a much bigger discount, especially if it's a van shared with several other riders.
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Old 02-14-18, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Here's a cut and paste:
Research from investment firm Ark Invest has estimated autonomous taxis will cost $0.35 per mile. Rides today typically run a few dollars for each mile.

According to Ark Invest analyst Tasha Keeney, someone taking a shared ride in a self-driving vehicle could experience even cheaper rides. But some riders may not see a point in riding with strangers if it's only saving them 5% on an already low fare, Keeney added.
How free self-driving car rides could change everything - Sep. 1, 2017

I don't get why they say a shared ride would save only 5% off the fare. It should be a much bigger discount, especially if it's a van shared with several other riders.
You should have posted the preface to your cut & paste; "This blog series is based on ARK Brainstorming, a weekly discussion between our CEO, Director of Research, thematic analysts, ARK’s theme developers, thought leaders, and investors."

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Old 02-14-18, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by 02Giant
You should have posted the preface to your cut & paste; "This blog series is based on ARK Brainstorming, a weekly discussion between our CEO, Director of Research, thematic analysts, ARK’s theme developers, thought leaders, and investors."

I don't see that preface on the CNN Money page from which I cut and paste that quote, nor on the page it links to:

https://ark-invest.com/research/auto...heaper-walking

Why does that matter anyway?

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