I-Like-To-Bike

Do you really believe you are getting clear headed/unbiased information for your cut and paste advocacy from an source that states that it is "Focusing solely on disruptive innovation"? and describes their analysis technique with the following gobbledygook "ARK’s Open Research Ecosystem leverages external Theme Developers to gain insights from multiple vantage points. We benefit from open debates, exchange of public information, ideas, and transparency."https://ark-invest.com/theme-developers

Perhaps BF's most renowned AV and Waymo fanbois can sign up as "Theme Developers" for ARK Research. Maybe even reimbursed for regurgitating good news for disruptive technologies, no matter how much money the investors lose, or how far off into the distance an investor might have to wait or how low the odds for a potential payoff.

02Giant 

https://ark-invest.com/research/ark-disrupt-issue-111

It doesn't to those that post information that lacks facts and is based on wishful thinking.

Ninety5rpm

More cut & paste for my friends. Just saying... I'm not the only one...
https://www.fastcompany.com/40424452...-a-car-by-2030

I-Like-To-Bike

I doubt that there is any prediction on any subject bizarre or outlandish enough that at least a few characters couldn't be found on-line to nod their heads in agreement.

Ninety5rpm

These are not isolated characters. They are published reports. Still might be hokum but I don't think so. You'd have to read it and decide for yourself.

That last one was based on report from RethinkX.

It's 60 pages. You don't need to fill in the name and info stuff to download it.

https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation/

Ninety5rpm

Holy cr@p. This report even says this. I think they've been reading my posts!

Our detailed analysis shows that the cost of transport-as-a-service
(TaaS) will fall to such an extent that owners of vehicles will abandon their
individually owned vehicles at a speed and scale that mainstream analysts
have failed to predict (see Box 8). This is because they have failed to foresee
the extent of the cost reduction and the impact that will have on the speed of
adoption. Mainstream scenarios generally focus on new car sales, with ICE
vehicles gradually being replaced by EVs, and not on the entire existing fleet
of vehicles being disrupted and stranded.

Ninety5rpm

A big part of my prediction about self-driving cars is that they will be mostly operated as parts of riding hailing fleets, rather than be privately owned. Apparently the manufacturers see it this way too, given their lack of interest in participating in traditional car shows that cater to the private ownership market.What you won't see at the 2018 Pittsburgh International Auto Show | TribLIVE

I-Like-To-Bike

Probably because they also have no product available to display or demonstrate that is anywhere close to being suitable for the private ownership market.

Maybe in the future, someday; maybe not.

02Giant 

How effective has Fast Co. been at solving those two issues? I see no solution to either, or really any difference compared to 5 years ago.

Haven't you been projecting 2022?

Ninety5rpm

I don't think Fast Co is solving any issues, but I'm not sure what two issues you're talking about that you think need solving.

Yes, I've been predicting that self-driving cars will dominate traffic in some large US metro areas by the end of 2022.

tyrion

Someone named James Arbib is the driving force behind the claims of extreme disruption by self driving cars, but a search on that name doesn't turn up much other than this one report (and its internet offspring). For someone without a proven track record of technological predictions, I'd take his predictions with a grain of salt. They strike me as way overly optimistic.

I-Like-To-Bike

Perhaps these predictions sound better after overdosing on the gee-whiz fantasizing KoolAid that is served up on the Internet for the gullible who seek such dreck.

mr_bill

I know, why would anyone pass on the chance to “exhibit” at the internationally known Pittsburgh International Auto Show.

LOL.

Probably you are BOTH wrong.

-mr. bill

I-Like-To-Bike

OK Smart Fellow, what International Auto Shows are the manufacturers and/or promoters for self driving cars displaying their ready or soon to be available product for the car driving public? Perhaps in Boston, eh?

Ninety5rpm

To you and to most everyone else.

But if he and I are right, then most everyone including you is overlooking a few key factors.

We'll see. To me, it just seems the perfect storm is brewing.

1. Dozens of companies are pouring billions into it.
2. Millions of miles of testing is getting done.
3. People with fiduciary responsiblity making promises about 2019 and early 2020s.
4. Regulators/politicians eager to please.
5. Uber/Lyft groundwork laid.
6. A company like Aurora, formed in secrecy n late 2016, is already testing at least in bay area and Pittsburgh
7. Cost per mile will be much cheaper than human-driven cars.
8. @noisebeam; confirms they're all over Phoenix encountered daily - no issues
9. People tend to choose the path of least resistance.
10. etc. etc. etc

mr_bill

Boston, another “international” show?

But you have the Iowa Caucuses to look forward to every four years, and then....

-mr. bill

tyrion

I haven't overlooked any of those issues, but this claim from the report is highly suspect:

Like many amatuer predictors, they fail to account for many human factors: someone needs a rideshare that allows dogs, someone needs a ride that that has never had a dog, someone needs one that take babies, someone needs to carry a bike, lumber, manure, surfboards, etc. A rideshare system cannot efficiently accommodate all the options to get to anywhere close to the 95% mark by 2030. In dense cities, sure. In less dense areas the economics just don't work.

Ninety5rpm

I think they will work.

Remember, the cost of a stopped autonomous vehicle is extremely low. You don't need them to be running 8 or more hours per day to be profitable.

That fact is important to realize all the opportunities that small fleet owners will have in buying a few specialized vehicles - including pickups and vans to carry all kinds of stuff - and making them available via the Uber or Lyft or Cruise or TBD service. So that day you need to make a lumber run, you call for a truck instead of a regular car. Heck, Home Depot will probably have them sitting in the lot ready to go, and you just send it back after you unload your lumber at home.

These are details that can be addressed quickly, and will be, because the demand will be there.

I think there will be a few basic chassis - small, medium, large, X-large - and each will be incredibly configurable. So a new model could be designed and produced in months if not weeks, because none of the vehicle mechanics or electronics will be affected.

The possibilities are endless.

And the economics are indisputable.

I-Like-To-Bike

Doesn't Boston have an auto show? Does it include self driving cars? If not why not?

Does it feature only domestic marques or only vehicles manufactured/assembled in the U.S.?

Feel to free to be "clever"and respond with some more cryptic nonsense.

tyrion

This only works economically above a certain population density. When people and businesses are more spread out, the wait time for a specialized vehicle can be so indeterminant I'd rather just pay extra to own my own truck.

People are simply willing to pay more to save time. This will never change.

Ninety5rpm

You're not getting it. For extra income anyone could buy a small fleet of cars, trucks , whatever is demanded in a given area, and have them sprinkled around areas that are not very densely populated. Maybe they only get a few rides a day, but enough to pay the costs including the loan payments, plus a few extra bucks for your rainy day.

What I'm saying is the demand will be there to make these cars available even in rural areas.

Sure the wait time might be a little longer if you expect a ride on demand, but you can schedule a ride for a particular time just as effectively regardless of density.

The center of the US, to take an arbitrary point, is near Lebanon, Kansas, a town of 200 people. That's probably enough for a fleet of at least 10 vehicles. Maybe 100 vehicles. I don't know. That's just math and the right viable numbers will be figured out. The point is it's not zero.

mr_bill

Name the important auto shows.

I’ll wait....

-mr. bill

I-Like-To-Bike

That is not the issue. Name ANY auto show, anywgere that the industry promoters of self driving cars put on display that are either ready now or being promoted as soon to be available to the car buying public? IF none, why not?

Bicycle riders can rest easy for quite awhile without worrying about encountering them in the wild other than those bring tested with human (hopefully attentive) oversight.

Continue beating around the bush with the usual evasions if you choose not to divulge what you think you know.

Ninety5rpm

Because they have no plans to sell Level 4 AVs as personal cars in the near future!

Level 5 is really necessary for personal vehicles, and those are still an unknown number of years away. But Level 4 is perfectly suitable for hailed services, and that's where they are aiming. Naturally.

mr_bill

Deep-fried butter on a stick debuted at the:

• 2009 Tokyo Motor Show?
• 2011 Iowa State Fair?

-mr. bill