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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 02-16-18, 06:07 PM
  #1576  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
I don't understand why you keep ignoring the significance of AVs removing the cost of the human driver from the equation, which is the biggest cost associated with the business. That factors enormously in fare prices as well as profit calculations.
Because I, unlike you, do not ignore the fixed costs of ownership (depreciation and financing) as well as the variable costs (fuel, maintenance) that are currently being paid 100% by the drivers.

You prefer to make pretend that that these vehicles will somehow be bought, financed, maintained and operated for next to nothing by Uber et al.

But I am discussing this with a starry eyed fellow that prefers extrapolating his economic and consumer demand "predictions" from his own carefully selected and highly filtered (for highest positive spin value) press releases. Silly me.
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Old 02-16-18, 06:56 PM
  #1577  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Because I, unlike you, do not ignore the fixed costs of ownership (depreciation and financing) as well as the variable costs (fuel, maintenance) that are currently being paid 100% by the drivers.

You prefer to make pretend that that these vehicles will somehow be bought, financed, maintained and operated for next to nothing by Uber et al.

But I am discussing this with a starry eyed fellow that prefers extrapolating his economic and consumer demand "predictions" from his own carefully selected and highly filtered (for highest positive spin value) press releases. Silly me.
Uber and Lyft allow their drivers to retain 70-80% of the fare, plus tips. Yes, the drivers have to pay the fixed costs of ownership out of that, but that's why they're getting the bulk of the fare. Not to mention the fare is largely that high to cover their time.

Say a fare for a 20 mile rides is $50. Driver gets $40; Uber gets $10. Driver allocates 50 cents a mile or $10 for vehicle costs and fuel. He keeps the remaining $30 + tips for himself.

Now with an AV there is no driver, but Uber (or Waymo, more and more likely) gets the entire fare. With no human driver to compensate, they can charge far less than $50 and still have plenty to cover the typical $10 vehicle cost and pay themselves a profit. And the cost of the vehicle, by most accounts I've read, is likely to be far less than 50 cents a mile on these specialized electric vehicles:

"the fuel for an electric vehicle with an energy efficiency of 3 miles per kWh costs about 3.3 cents per mile when electricity
costs 10 cents per kWh."

"The national average cost for electricity in the U.S. is about 10 cents per kWh, while the average residential rate is about
11.7 cents per kWh. "
https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/fi...fsev/costs.pdf

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Old 02-16-18, 07:06 PM
  #1578  
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Originally Posted by tyrion
One of the big issues in transportation as a service is the depreciation of the vehicle - if they depreciate anywhere close to the rate computers do, that would really impact the business model of AV taxis.

[Computers (and phones, etc.) don't depreciate because their capabilities decrease, they depreciate because technology constantly drives the cost/capability down. This is great for the computer business and I'd think car manufacturers would love to replicate that rapid obsolescence.]
I'm sure the AV tech part of the cars will be fairly modular and upgrade-able.

And a $50000 car can be amortized for less than a $1000/month over 5 years. I think that's a reasonable time and insignificant amount for a car that can bring in $1000 or more in revenue per day.

There is a reason so many companies are pouring billions into this.
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Old 02-16-18, 07:18 PM
  #1579  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
a car that can bring in $1000 or more in revenue per day
That's $40/hour assuming zero downtime! The transpo-as-service concept isn't going to take over the world at those rates.
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Old 02-16-18, 07:29 PM
  #1580  
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Originally Posted by tyrion
That's $40/hour assuming zero downtime! The transpo-as-service concept isn't going to take over the world at those rates.
LOL! Okay, my math was off on that one.

My main point stands, however. $1000/month for vehicle cost is reasonable given a vehicel that brings $1000 in revenue every few days.
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Old 02-16-18, 08:04 PM
  #1581  
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Self-driving Cars Use Crazy Amounts of Power, And It's Becoming a Problem

https://www.wired.com/story/self-dri...n-nvidia-chip/




The power needed to operate all those extra sensors seems like it would be pretty significant. How much power is consumed to project radar signals not just in front of the car, but 360 degrees all around it? Must drain a lot of juice to keep those radar/lidar thingys spinning all the time, as well as killing the aerodynamics of the car. Say good-bye to fuel efficiency.


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Old 02-16-18, 10:11 PM
  #1582  
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Roll down the windows.
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Old 02-16-18, 10:12 PM
  #1583  
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PS Not RADAR, Lidar.
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Old 02-17-18, 09:55 AM
  #1584  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
That's just shifting the cost from the driver/owner to the service itself (or to a local fleet owner) - either way the cost of owning the vehicle is part of the business calculus. Whether the vehicle cost portion of the fare goes to the driver/owner or the server owner or the local fleet owner doesn't really matter.

Now, you can argue that the an AV cost will be more than say the typical Uber X Prius, but the cost of a typical Uber XL or Uber Black vehicle is probably comparable.

And by the time they're mass producing these things all identically the cost is likely to drop substantially.
Uber never absorbed the cost of the cars... the owners did, and thus that ownership cost was largely ignored... Sure, the labor costs of the driver were there... but that amortized the cost of the car over not only the driver, but the fare time too.

Uber even has a program where they help drivers buy new cars... Uber doesnít exactly lose money at that.

Uber may ultimately win out... But they have a lot of sunk costs going in.
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Old 02-18-18, 01:06 AM
  #1585  
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I don't see how Phoenix cyclists are lucky, unless they put a huge sign in several places saying, "Pay attention, ain't nobody steering, you are on your own"!
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Old 02-18-18, 01:09 AM
  #1586  
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Why do you think we are going to buy stock based on that? That's an iffy statement and what does a share of Alphabet cost?
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Old 02-18-18, 09:19 AM
  #1587  
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Originally Posted by Rollfast
Why do you think we are going to buy stock based on that? That's an iffy statement and what does a share of Alphabet cost?
Better yet what will the fare structure be for those lucky Phoenix residents who are being blessed with this limited taxi service, and when, if ever Waymo will be able to make oneĘ of profit from this taxi service endeavor? Maybe if Waymo is lucky they won't lose billions of $/year offering cut rate taxi service.

I suspect there are few Phoenix cyclists about to alter their riding (or driving) habits because of anything Uber or Waymo offers in the foreseeable future.
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Old 02-19-18, 11:13 AM
  #1588  
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Originally Posted by genec
Uber never absorbed the cost of the cars... the owners did, and thus that ownership cost was largely ignored... Sure, the labor costs of the driver were there... but that amortized the cost of the car over not only the driver, but the fare time too.

Uber even has a program where they help drivers buy new cars... Uber doesnít exactly lose money at that.

Uber may ultimately win out... But they have a lot of sunk costs going in.
I think Uber is toast, unless GM/Cruise or Aurora Innovations pulls a rabbit out of a hat and teams up with Uber. Otherwise Waymo is going to roast them. We'll know for sure once Waymo rolls out their service in Phoenix later this year. If I'm right, fares will be half of Uber's rates, or less, and Uber will be driven out of business there practically overnight. I mean, who's going to pay $10 for a ride that can be had for $5 or less?

That said, and this is my point, Uber drivers have been around long enough to prove that the fundamental economics of the business are viable (regardless of who owns the vehicle). That is, the 80% of the fares that drivers currently get is sufficient to cover operating/ownership costs of the vehicles PLUS compensating the human driver for his time. If that were not true, no drivers would last more than a few months.
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Old 02-19-18, 11:20 AM
  #1589  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Better yet what will the fare structure be for those lucky Phoenix residents who are being blessed with this limited taxi service, and when, if ever Waymo will be able to make oneĘ of profit from this taxi service endeavor? Maybe if Waymo is lucky they won't lose billions of $/year offering cut rate taxi service.

I suspect there are few Phoenix cyclists about to alter their riding (or driving) habits because of anything Uber or Waymo offers in the foreseeable future.
I suspect the rollout will be incremental and will initially focus on an inner region of Phoenix at first, intentionally limiting the market to those needing rides within that circle. But as they work the inevitable bugs out of the system, they will gradually increase the radius of the area they serve, perhaps encompassing the entire Phoenix metro area within a few months of initial rollout.

The rollout is likely to expand faster at subsequent cities.
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Old 02-19-18, 12:53 PM
  #1590  
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Smart real estate investors are starting to think about how real estate will be affected by the AV revolution.


Why real estate investors are watching self-driving cars closely


Likewise, smart cycling advocates are starting to think about how cycling will be affected by the AV revolution.
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Old 02-19-18, 01:05 PM
  #1591  
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The revolution isn’t self driving cars, it’s breaking the petrol/diesel nexus.
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Old 02-19-18, 01:08 PM
  #1592  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm

Likewise, smart cycling advocates are starting to think about how cycling will be affected by the AV revolution.
What "smart" things are these so-called smart cycling advocates starting to think about? Is their "thinking" similar to yours?
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Old 02-19-18, 01:32 PM
  #1593  
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Originally Posted by avole
The revolution isnít self driving cars, itís breaking the petrol/diesel nexus.
The revolution is the self-driving cars. One of its countless effects will be breaking the petrol/diesel nexus.
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Old 02-19-18, 01:33 PM
  #1594  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
What "smart" things are these so-called smart cycling advocates starting to think about? Is their "thinking" similar to yours?
Indistinguishable!
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Old 02-19-18, 02:19 PM
  #1595  
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Originally Posted by northernlights
Self-driving Cars Use Crazy Amounts of Power, And It's Becoming a Problem

https://www.wired.com/story/self-dri...n-nvidia-chip/




The power needed to operate all those extra sensors seems like it would be pretty significant. How much power is consumed to project radar signals not just in front of the car, but 360 degrees all around it? Must drain a lot of juice to keep those radar/lidar thingys spinning all the time, as well as killing the aerodynamics of the car. Say good-bye to fuel efficiency.


More evidence of how close this is.

First, like Urmson points out in the article, it's not an issue for the initial rollouts (slow urban traffic with plenty of recharge opportunities).

Second, more advanced low-power chips are being developed as we speak.
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Old 02-19-18, 04:26 PM
  #1596  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The revolution is the self-driving cars. One of its countless effects will be breaking the petrol/diesel nexus.
No. Itís rearranging the deckchairs versus avoiding the iceberg.
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Old 02-19-18, 05:13 PM
  #1597  
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Originally Posted by avole
No. Itís rearranging the deckchairs versus avoiding the iceberg.
Huh? Self-driving cars will reduce individual car usage many times more than we could ever hope to accomplish with public transportation.
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Old 02-20-18, 03:44 AM
  #1598  
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What's funny is that although the article opens with its click-bait title and tales of disaster, the last few paragraphs are all about how the latest tech cuts the power draw to one-fifth or on eighth (different systems) from the stuff .... that already works.

Bad journalism designed for the cheap emotional reaction (Either, "I knew it I hate AI" or "That can't be right AI cars are already out there and have been for years") and then it turns out is is all a come-on and even though what is out there already works ... there is already stuff way better on the way.

Of course, most people just read the headline ....
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Old 02-20-18, 11:12 AM
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In 2018, not in 2028, AV technology is proven worthy in snow conditions, albeit in Moscow.

“The Yandex.Taxi autonomous car safely navigated the streets of Moscow after a recent snowstorm managing interactions with traffic, pedestrians, parked vehicles and other road hazards on snowy and icy streets,” the company said in a blog post. “The drive, which occurred during light precipitation and -6 C (21 F) temperatures, was an advanced test challenging the vehicle with winter weather conditions on public roads.”
...
In the US, most autonomous driving tests are conducted in dry, arid environments like California, Arizona, and Texas. Yet in recent months, companies have begun seeking colder locations: Waymo in Michigan, NuTonomy in Boston, and Argo.ai and Uber in Pittsburgh.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/16/1...-winter-russia
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Old 02-20-18, 11:45 AM
  #1600  
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Originally Posted by genec
Uber never absorbed the cost of the cars... the owners did, and thus that ownership cost was largely ignored... Sure, the labor costs of the driver were there... but that amortized the cost of the car over not only the driver, but the fare time too.

Uber even has a program where they help drivers buy new cars... Uber doesnít exactly lose money at that.

Uber may ultimately win out... But they have a lot of sunk costs going in.

actually looks like uber loses on that deal.....

https://www.recode.net/2017/9/27/163...leasing-losses
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