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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 02-21-18, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Sort of ... AV will start as taxi/rideshare fleets ... but I do expect them to take over.

A person who owns his/her own AV can go anywhere, just as with a self-drive car ... and can drink, smoke, read, text, whatever ...

How many people actually Enjoy the act of driving, versus enjoying the ability to go somewhere in a personal car? I think a lot of people will---once they see self-driving cars all around them in traffic, with the parents free to yell at the kids in the back seat, the teens able to text, the self-important businessmen able to teleconference .... And anyone with a DUI will be able to get one and go to work, because the state will install a chip which limits the vehicle to the grocery store, hospital, and job .... but the DUI folks won't be riding Walmart mountain bikes anymore.

Driving has become so insulated, so untactile .... I doubt, for all the commercials we see, that many people actually Drive a car for pleasure, or get much pleasure form driving. it is just the best transport option based their values. Give them a robot chauffeur and why bother hassling with traffic? Do your makeup, shave, drink your coffee, eat your greasy drive-in breakfast, shout at the radio ... even nap on the way to work.

I could sell that.
I am that guy who enjoys driving, I still drive a manual, and am looking for a manual in my next car. I also really enjoy riding my bike and commute 2 to 5 days a week.

my son is a millennial and loves driving. He goes to Humboldt State University...which is pretty isolated. Enough that you can't find an active Uber driver during the day. And he does a lot of adventures that would not be supported (economically anyway) via AV like going to mountains to the snow to sled and play for a few hours and then down to the beach to play and body surf. and seeing wolf in between (youtube search for skiing and surfing same day Humboldt)

I don't question that AV vehicles will be in the mix at some point in the future, even the near future in extremely limited ways

I do question the rate of adoption and how much displacement of self driving vehicles there will be in the next 20 years

And despite the billions of dollars being put into AV, and the miles driven in test and simulation there are still a lot of technical issues, there is no clear best approach technically.

Just mapping is a good example, this is a good read on that https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...all-over-again

There are still huge legal and liability questions, especially for personal ownership. Think AV service

Highly populated, urban areas as a taxi service.....will see implementation soon as there is a critical mass of potential riders, a roi on mapping needed, etc.. It still remains to be seen if there is profitable business model that work long term.

Use for weekend trips, private ownership, usage in less that urban areas, highly inclement weather (would like to see how AV systems work in the -49 degrees my home town of Chinook, MT had yesterday) is long time coming if ever.

Bottom line is everyone here is just guessing......the reality may end up being very different, but I still think this change will be measured in generations, not years or tens of years

Your AV may vary
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Old 02-21-18, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
I am that guy who enjoys driving,
I'm pretty sure you're not including sitting in traffic when you're thinking of the driving you enjoy.

Yet that's a big part of driving to work for most people.

Wouldn't you rather catch up on your email?
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Old 02-21-18, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by SHBR
I'd argue that there are millions of people who travel on crowded buses and subways everyday by choice in most major cities.

Trains tend to be quite efficient, just ask the Germans.

Buses still get stuck in traffic, and there is some privacy with a personal vehicle.

Cost is usually the most limiting factor
Not only that, but people seem quite happy to share space in aircraft, too.

The whole self driving car thing is a furphy. The object should be to get less vehicles on the road, making them safer plus doing wonders for the environment.
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Old 02-21-18, 02:22 PM
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I also drive a stick and enjoy driving ... a few times a year.

of course, I cannot drive the way I'd like to because i drive on public roads, but i still have fun ...

but if you commute ... look at the people in cars in traffic.

I used to do that every day and it cracked me up ... it is 95 degrees, 95 percent humidity, the cars are baking the road, the sun is baking the road, I am in an oven with the air temp near the road surface surely over triple digits, and I am physically working hard ... and smiling as I weave past all these folks in air-conditioned easy chairs with a beverage at hand and their favorite tunes on the radio. And Every One of Them looks thoroughly pissed off ... they are stuck in traffic and hating life.

So that's you, me, and your son ..... vs the world.

yeah i figure a generation is about a good estimate, but by then I wouldn't be surprised in self-drive was outlawed except with special (expensive) licenses.

Figure a kid by the time/she is three or four sees what traveling is a car is ... and sees lots of cars with no drivers. in 12 or 13 years that kid is going to get a car ... and is totally comfortable with AV because it has always been part of life, and probably a growing part. That person will accept AV the way we accept self-driven cars. That person might well prefer an AV ... and the parents might too, because the AV car can be speed governed and tracked and only allowed to go to certain locations ... no "I am going to a friend's house to study" and ending up at a party on the beach.

By the time that person is having kids, AV will just make sense ... it has always been part of life, and has been increasing in refinement and utility and ubiquity.

Whatever Waymo or Uber roll out later this year or next year as fleet cars ... even though they will be fully operational ... they will be primitive compared to what will be on the road ten years later.

And by the way, there was video of an AV operating in a snowstorm in Russia around a couple day ago. Google will have it.
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Old 02-21-18, 02:35 PM
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Hopefully you will be totally wrong. Cars will have become a thing of the past, and people will use alternative, non-polluting means of transport. Whether they're automatic driving or not should ne be part of the equation. Also, for a nation that is renowned for its obesity, think of the impact on health and health systems if people have to walk down to their local KFC rather than drive the 50 meters.
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Old 02-21-18, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
I'm pretty sure you're not including sitting in traffic when you're thinking of the driving you enjoy.

Yet that's a big part of driving to work for most people.

Wouldn't you rather catch up on your email?
actually no..... I am pretty connected already..... check email on my phone just after I get up in the morning, have regular evening meetings with india and singapore.

I don't need or want to be connected every second.....people can and do get me for urgent issues 7/24 cell, text, whatsapp etc.


Lot of research showing need for downtime Check out "peak peformance" by Brad Stulberg and Steve Magness

I am am also pretty luck with a short commute on city streets, so i listen to music when I drive.

I like it even better when I commute by bike, I am on track to bike more often than I drive this year
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Old 02-21-18, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
I also drive a stick and enjoy driving ... a few times a year.

of course, I cannot drive the way I'd like to because i drive on public roads, but i still have fun ...

but if you commute ... look at the people in cars in traffic.

I used to do that every day and it cracked me up ... it is 95 degrees, 95 percent humidity, the cars are baking the road, the sun is baking the road, I am in an oven with the air temp near the road surface surely over triple digits, and I am physically working hard ... and smiling as I weave past all these folks in air-conditioned easy chairs with a beverage at hand and their favorite tunes on the radio. And Every One of Them looks thoroughly pissed off ... they are stuck in traffic and hating life.

So that's you, me, and your son ..... vs the world.

yeah i figure a generation is about a good estimate, but by then I wouldn't be surprised in self-drive was outlawed except with special (expensive) licenses.

Figure a kid by the time/she is three or four sees what traveling is a car is ... and sees lots of cars with no drivers. in 12 or 13 years that kid is going to get a car ... and is totally comfortable with AV because it has always been part of life, and probably a growing part. That person will accept AV the way we accept self-driven cars. That person might well prefer an AV ... and the parents might too, because the AV car can be speed governed and tracked and only allowed to go to certain locations ... no "I am going to a friend's house to study" and ending up at a party on the beach.

By the time that person is having kids, AV will just make sense ... it has always been part of life, and has been increasing in refinement and utility and ubiquity.

Whatever Waymo or Uber roll out later this year or next year as fleet cars ... even though they will be fully operational ... they will be primitive compared to what will be on the road ten years later.

And by the way, there was video of an AV operating in a snowstorm in Russia around a couple day ago. Google will have it.
I don't see cars being outlawed in the united states by next generation, from city centers like San Francisco and NYC much sooner like in years.

There is a large portion of the country that will a) resist and b) it won't be economically viable to support AV (unless AV becomes like a public utility which no one will support)

again my mantra here: We are all guessing, your AV theory may vary
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Old 02-21-18, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
I don't see cars being outlawed in the united states by next generation, from city centers like San Francisco and NYC much sooner like in years.
Interesting

Originally Posted by squirtdad
There is a large portion of the country that will a) resist and b) it won't be economically viable to support AV (unless AV becomes like a public utility which no one will support)
in terms of safety, the more rural areas will matter less ... much lower vehicle density and much greater need for flexibility (like driving across a field.) Large urban areas .... even in the midlands ... because the car companies and the insurance companies are nationwide .... A lot of people in more rural areas will keep what they have (and the entrepreneur types will make a killing trucking in parts and partial vehicles)

Originally Posted by squirtdad
again my mantra here: We are all guessing, your AV theory may vary
Oh, yeah. I have no clue ... our current social structure and the world's might go through an enormous change in the next several years ... tech breakthroughs, second coming, massive climate disruption, tectonic motion .... Anything might happen.

Thanks for the reminder though. It is easy to get worked up about stuff on a forum when it is just ... stuff on a forum.
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Old 02-21-18, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
actually no..... I am pretty connected already..... check email on my phone just after I get up in the morning, have regular evening meetings with india and singapore.

I don't need or want to be connected every second.....people can and do get me for urgent issues 7/24 cell, text, whatsapp etc.


Lot of research showing need for downtime Check out "peak peformance" by Brad Stulberg and Steve Magness

I am am also pretty luck with a short commute on city streets, so i listen to music when I drive.

I like it even better when I commute by bike, I am on track to bike more often than I drive this year
Oh, you don't have to check email, of course.

You can read a book, make some calls, nap, eat, whatever, all of which are arguably better and healthier uses of your time than sitting behind the wheel.
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Old 02-21-18, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by avole
Hopefully you will be totally wrong. Cars will have become a thing of the past, and people will use alternative, non-polluting means of transport. Whether they're automatic driving or not should ne be part of the equation. Also, for a nation that is renowned for its obesity, think of the impact on health and health systems if people have to walk down to their local KFC rather than drive the 50 meters.
AV cars will be part of the equation because they will be more efficient than human driven cars.
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Old 02-21-18, 04:10 PM
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I still think they will sell AVs on safety ... I know guys like SUVs to emphasize the manly, rugged, go-anywhere aspect which they simply don't have in their lives ... but I have spoken with women driving SUVs and the mantra was "safety."

Basically if they (and/or their kids) were in a wreck, They would be the one doing the wrecking, plowing through smaller cars like a brick through eggs.

So to sell AVs I would emphasize "99 percent of all accidents are due to driver error--except when that driver is made by Waymo. Our self-driving cars have logged xxxxxxxxx,000,000 accident-free miles ... and no one has ever been injured in a Waymo car because the Waymo driver was talking, texting, spilled coffee, got drowsy, or got angry at other drivers.

"You want accidents? By any self-driving car---they are all the same. You Don't want accidents? Buy Waymo."
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Old 02-21-18, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
I still think they will sell AVs on safety ... I know guys like SUVs to emphasize the manly, rugged, go-anywhere aspect which they simply don't have in their lives ... but I have spoken with women driving SUVs and the mantra was "safety."

Basically if they (and/or their kids) were in a wreck, They would be the one doing the wrecking, plowing through smaller cars like a brick through eggs.

So to sell AVs I would emphasize "99 percent of all accidents are due to driver error--except when that driver is made by Waymo. Our self-driving cars have logged xxxxxxxxx,000,000 accident-free miles ... and no one has ever been injured in a Waymo car because the Waymo driver was talking, texting, spilled coffee, got drowsy, or got angry at other drivers.

"You want accidents? By any self-driving car---they are all the same. You Don't want accidents? Buy Waymo."
There is no indication that anyone will sell AVs for private ownership, at least not in the first few years. They are likely to be too expensive, and still Level 4, not quite Level 5 required for private ownership. They will all be owned in fleets and only available as taxis or for hailed rides.

So I don't think anyone is worrying about selling them as private cars. Not yet anyway.
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Old 02-21-18, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by avole
Hopefully you will be totally wrong. Cars will have become a thing of the past, and people will use alternative, non-polluting means of transport. Whether they're automatic driving or not should ne be part of the equation. Also, for a nation that is renowned for its obesity, think of the impact on health and health systems if people have to walk down to their local KFC rather than drive the 50 meters.
It's likely they'll walk a few blocks at either end of a hailed AV ride to save money on the fare.
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Old 02-21-18, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
There is no indication that anyone will sell AVs for private ownership, at least not in the first few years. They are likely to be too expensive, and still Level 4, not quite Level 5 required for private ownership. They will all be owned in fleets and only available as taxis or for hailed rides.

So I don't think anyone is worrying about selling them as private cars. Not yet anyway.
Dude, you need to be thinking of the future.
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Old 02-21-18, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Dude, you need to be thinking of the future.
Ha ha. Telling me?

But seriously, Once everyone sees how easily, conveniently and cheaply they can get around without owning a car by using hailed rides and the occasional AV rental, I think the demand for private car ownership will plummet.

That's the future. Virtually no car sales in 2025.
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Old 02-21-18, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
It's likely they'll walk a few blocks at either end of a hailed AV ride to save money on the fare.
Why don't these chimerical "money savings" über alles types just ride bikes, walk or hitchhike now to their destinations in order to squeeze the last bit of utility out of their precious dollars? Surely comfort and/or convenience does not trump pinching pennies does it?

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Old 02-21-18, 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Why don't these chimerical "money savings" über alles types just ride bikes, walk or hitchhike now to their destinations in order to squeeze the last bit of utility out of their precious dollars? Surely comfort and/or convenience does not trump pinching pennies does it?
Clearly convenience and economy are tradeoffs. People are willing to park a couple of blocks from their destination and walk - this is a relatively small inconvenience for most.

I think they'll be willing to walk a distance that is typical for walking to and from parking in order to get dirt cheap fares for rides. We'll see.
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Old 02-21-18, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
There is no indication that anyone will sell AVs for private ownership, at least not in the first few years. They are likely to be too expensive, and still Level 4, not quite Level 5 required for private ownership. They will all be owned in fleets and only available as taxis or for hailed rides.

So I don't think anyone is worrying about selling them as private cars. Not yet anyway.
Private ownership has huge legal liability issues.
When a privately owned AV car crashes (and it will happen) who is responsible/liable?

The rider/riders in the vehicle? The legal owner? The AV vehicle manufacturer? The AV technology company? the tire company? and so on.

Current law does not address this and I would bet insurance companies are either going to stay away completely or charge so much that there will be huge barriers to ownerships

Using AV as a service is it a little more clear, but not 100%. I as an AV rider have entered a contract with the service provider.....they are responsible for me.

But take it beyond that and many of the same questions apply...who is responsible.

If it is waymo testing a waymo vehicle and technology that is pretty clear....but even then who gets the traffic ticket?? who shows up at court

but take it beyond that to the 95TaaS company, who has purchased/leased Waymo vehicles

If there is a crash who is responsible? 95Taas company, waymo, etc

Beyond that what restrictions/responsibilities do rides have? Having seen the craziness of 4 teenage boys riding in a car (not bad or malicious) doing things like bouncing in sync to make the car bounce, it it not out of the realm of possibility that passengers could affect an AV vehicle. what happens when another car thows paint on sensors? Do vehicle have internal cameras? what are privacy concerns?

what are age restrictions? lots of thoughts of people using AV to ferry kids around? Again where is liablity.... what is youngest age allowed to ride? what happens if a kid bounces around, hit's there head and is not breathing? What if a kid gets sick?
How about windows and doors? what is failsafe in general if there are problems, fire, car stops and doesnt run, etc ? car stops and doors open? may be good, unless it is on a freeway, but if it is not and it is 110 degrees in phoenix and the doors and windows don't open and people in car overheat?
What about ADA?
For shared rides how is assault by one passenger on another handled?
What ages are allowed to share vehicles? and so on

I know a lot of what ifs, but my point is simple: widespread use and acceptance of AV vehicles is not solely a technical issue of can the vehicle get safely from point a to point b. it is also considering all the situations that have to handled to keep people safe and happy.

this will be a far bigger barrier to adoption than the basic AV technology working or not working

I have no doubt companies are thinking about these things, they would have to be pretty oblivious not to, but
the first time there is a major issue with an AV causing injury, the result would be like what Warren Zevon would say "Send Laywers, Guns and Money"
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Old 02-21-18, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
Private ownership has huge legal liability issues.
When a privately owned AV car crashes (and it will happen) who is responsible/liable?

The rider/riders in the vehicle? The legal owner? The AV vehicle manufacturer? The AV technology company? the tire company? and so on.

Current law does not address this ...
Sure it does. There have been numerous lawsuits filed in cases where a vehicle crash and resulting injuries/fatalities were due to malfunctions of the tires, car suspensions, brakes, engines, etc. and the courts have been assigned the task of assessing who is at fault and assigning figures for compensation. With AVs I expect the number of incidents to be far fewer but with a higher percentage that include some fault due to the vehicle.
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Old 02-21-18, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by prathmann
Sure it does. There have been numerous lawsuits filed in cases where a vehicle crash and resulting injuries/fatalities were due to malfunctions of the tires, car suspensions, brakes, engines, etc. and the courts have been assigned the task of assessing who is at fault and assigning figures for compensation. With AVs I expect the number of incidents to be far fewer but with a higher percentage that include some fault due to the vehicle.
difference is in all of these cases there was a driver. In general the driver is considered responsible. In the case of stolen vehicle the owner is not responsible for the driver who stole the vehicles actions.


this is all turned upside down when there is no driver.
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Old 02-21-18, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
That's the future. Virtually no car sales in 2025.
Only 5 years until AV's outnumber normally driven cars in metro areas, and now only 7 years left to even sell human controlled cars? That is amazing.
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Old 02-21-18, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
difference is in all of these cases there was a driver. In general the driver is considered responsible.
But certainly not always. As I said, there have already been plenty of crashes where the fault was due to some defect of the vehicle and damages were assessed to the manufacturer of the vehicle and/or the manufacturer of the particular component that failed and was responsible. Therefore there are already plenty of precedent court cases in place to deal with crashes that are not the fault of the human occupants of the vehicles. The change will be in the percentage of crashes where that is the case, but the basic case law is unlikely to need much change.
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Old 02-22-18, 12:03 AM
  #1648  
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Originally Posted by tyrion
I was just thinking if I had a self driving car I'd like one with a bed. Get in the car on Friday night in San Diego, go to sleep, and wake up the next morning in San Francisco. Imagine how that would change travel: sleep through the driving at night, then play tourist all day in each new city.
Personally, I'd go for something about the size of an Elio with one of those train-style sleeping compartments and a cargo rack on top. Just big enough for two if they're OK with being that close, while it should be efficient enough for multiple vehicles to be cheaper to operate than a current SUV or minivan. There's a lot in far west Texas that I'd love to spend more time doing and seeing, but 5-8 hours driving kills some of the fun.

If I could get there by train or bus, I'd haul my bike to Fort Davis and ride out of there for a few days, but bus fare to the nearest stop (Alpine, about 20mi from Fort Davis) is $140 each way. As I've mentioned elsewhere, round trip in even a moderately efficient car is under $100, and taking a friend along doesn't increase that.
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Old 02-22-18, 12:08 AM
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Originally Posted by avole
Not only that, but people seem quite happy to share space in aircraft, too.
Airlines will (nearly always) be quite happy to move you away from the idiot with the body odor and social skills of a LCF advocate, or tell him to STFU or be kicked off the flight. Buses and local trains generally don't have assigned seating, so you're free to move else where in the cabin. Not so much in a car or relatively small van.
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Old 02-22-18, 12:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Ha ha. Telling me?

But seriously, Once everyone sees how easily, conveniently and cheaply they can get around without owning a car by using hailed rides and the occasional AV rental, I think the demand for private car ownership will plummet.

That's the future. Virtually no car sales in 2025.
My bed-car™ is coming. Brilliant ideas like that can't be stopped.
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