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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 02-26-18, 02:20 PM
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To amplify Nintey5rpm's idea: Most human drivers are Way less than 100 percent aware, let alone in compliance. And yet most of the time they do alright.

And AV car doesn't need to be 100 perfect---if it can avoid major decision errors (like choosing to text instead of driving) it will be okay if now and then it sits too long at a stop light.

At this point .... this is all BS. This is again someone saying "I think AVS will work" and someone else saying "I don't think AVs will work" with both sides inventing scenarios to support their preconceptions.

Getting down to Facts ... AVS will actually be ion the road in Phoenix in a few months which says to me a Lot of people who don't have a dog in this fight, Do believe that AVs can be safe in city traffic.

No politician is going to allow a whole new cl;ass of vehicle on the road if s/he thinks it will cause enough hassles to cost him/her re-election.

Whatever demonstrations None of Us saw, seem to have been convincing to the municipal government of Phoenix---and Phoenix is not exactly Left-Coast liberal/futuristic.

Personally, I plan not to get too caught up in this biased BS. A year from now we will have a whole bunch of real-world information. Right now it is just kids on the schoolyard shouting "I'm right, you're wrong!"
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Old 02-26-18, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
To amplify Nintey5rpm's idea: Most human drivers are Way less than 100 percent aware, let alone in compliance. And yet most of the time they do alright.

And AV car doesn't need to be 100 perfect---if it can avoid major decision errors (like choosing to text instead of driving) it will be okay if now and then it sits too long at a stop light.

At this point .... this is all BS. This is again someone saying "I think AVS will work" and someone else saying "I don't think AVs will work" with both sides inventing scenarios to support their preconceptions.

Getting down to Facts ... AVS will actually be ion the road in Phoenix in a few months which says to me a Lot of people who don't have a dog in this fight, Do believe that AVs can be safe in city traffic.

No politician is going to allow a whole new cl;ass of vehicle on the road if s/he thinks it will cause enough hassles to cost him/her re-election.

Whatever demonstrations None of Us saw, seem to have been convincing to the municipal government of Phoenix---and Phoenix is not exactly Left-Coast liberal/futuristic.

Personally, I plan not to get too caught up in this biased BS. A year from now we will have a whole bunch of real-world information. Right now it is just kids on the schoolyard shouting "I'm right, you're wrong!"
I agree with this except the BS characterizations.

There is plenty to go on prior to forming an opinion about how things are likely to unfold with respect to AVs.
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Old 02-26-18, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
  1. AVs are coded 100% to not violate the law
  2. AV keep of with changes in laws and updates real time
  3. the coding and engineering is 100% accurate and never fails
  4. there is no hacking or override of the law abiding code
Actually, the biggest issue is going to be programming AVs to geofence and follow a plethora of local laws with their own nuance and variations.

There isn't a single supplier that will program their AVs to willfully break the law, the fallout would be even bigger than what VW is currently dealing with.

Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Did you arrive at that guesstimate though gazing into your own crystal ball through a filter of industry press releases, or perhaps from another soothsayer on the Internet?
From all the data that has come out of testing saying that while they are not infallable, they are far more infallable than the humans which have been at fault in nearly every single accident involving an AV.

They don't need to be at 0%, they need to be at fault for less than 30k deaths a year, which I have little doubt they are already at.

Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
and this supposed "moral dilemma" problem of having to choose between harming this person(s) or that person(s), which is not.
People can philosophize about the "moral argument" all day. Very simply put, there will not be a judgement based on morality, possibly ever. It will simply be what action results in not hitting an object.
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Old 02-26-18, 04:25 PM
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In the mean time, a NYC blogger and apparent amateur sleuth has deduced that GM Cruise is coming to Manhattan to test their AVs, at least initially within a five square mile area.

https://tribecacitizen.com/2018/02/2...wer-manhattan/
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Old 02-26-18, 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
From all the data that has come out of testing saying that while they are not infallable, they are far more infallable than the humans which have been at fault in nearly every single accident involving an AV.
Has any of that "data" been released without first careful selection, filtering and massaging by the promoters of the technology in question?
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Old 02-26-18, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
snip

and your response "the coding and engineering does need to be 100% accurate and never fail in order to be accurate and not fail with respect to critical situations like passing cyclists." is completely illogical


The second sentence was not intended to be absolute to apply in all contexts; the context of the sentence preceding it was presumed. To be clear:

The difference is that the AVs won't violate the law regulating safe passing of cyclists

I've discussed before how AVs, like human drivers, have to violate some laws, like the law absolutely prohibiting no crossing double solid yellow stripes. In certain situations (including passing cyclists), it's unavoidable.


What's illogical about it?

In order to never hit cyclists the coding and engineering does not need to be 100% accurate in all aspects in order to always be safe with respect to passing cyclists. It just needs to handle safe passing of cyclists without fail. That's an area they're placing a lot of emphasis.[/QUOTE]

What is illogical is your contention that coding and engineering may not be 100% accurate for AV systems, except in the case of safe passing of cyclists. it is illogical to think some code and engineering may not be 100% but other parts of it will be. Certainly some functions may get more test and development focus and be closer to 100% but ther won't be 100%
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Old 02-26-18, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Has any of that "data" been released without first careful selection, filtering and massaging by the promoters of the technology in question?
Do you actually doubt that these machines will not perform more reliably than human beings?

The R & D is still in progress, but even at the current stage these things function better than people. It's not that high a bar.
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Old 02-26-18, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
To amplify Nintey5rpm's idea: Most human drivers are Way less than 100 percent aware, let alone in compliance. And yet most of the time they do alright.

And AV car doesn't need to be 100 perfect---if it can avoid major decision errors (like choosing to text instead of driving) it will be okay if now and then it sits too long at a stop light.

At this point .... this is all BS. This is again someone saying "I think AVS will work" and someone else saying "I don't think AVs will work" with both sides inventing scenarios to support their preconceptions.

Getting down to Facts ... AVS will actually be ion the road in Phoenix in a few months which says to me a Lot of people who don't have a dog in this fight, Do believe that AVs can be safe in city traffic.

No politician is going to allow a whole new cl;ass of vehicle on the road if s/he thinks it will cause enough hassles to cost him/her re-election.

Whatever demonstrations None of Us saw, seem to have been convincing to the municipal government of Phoenix---and Phoenix is not exactly Left-Coast liberal/futuristic.

Personally, I plan not to get too caught up in this biased BS. A year from now we will have a whole bunch of real-world information. Right now it is just kids on the schoolyard shouting "I'm right, you're wrong!"
don't disagree overall it is a forum and you AV may vary. at this point is it entertainment, not education or reality.

My point, consistently is that AV's are coming, but at anywhere near the rapid adoption rate that some project.


My best guess as to the the issues that slow adoptons will be more likely social, legal, business, with some technical issues, and of course requirements issues (what someone made a bike out of bamboo???...I thought they were all carbon, steel and aluminum frames....sensors are not optimized for bamboo) In software is it not the big things that get you......you spend a lot of time on them, it is the 'simple" things that get you.
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Old 02-26-18, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
What is illogical is your contention that coding and engineering may not be 100% accurate for AV systems, except in the case of safe passing of cyclists. it is illogical to think some code and engineering may not be 100% but other parts of it will be. Certainly some functions may get more test and development focus and be closer to 100% but ther won't be 100%
It doesn't have to be 100%.

For example, there was the famous incident where the Waymo AV encountered the fixie dude track-standing at a 4-way stop. Every time the AV "thought" the dude was yielding and the AV would proceed, the dude would make some motion to keep from falling and the AV would over-react and stop. It couldn't handle that situation properly, no doubt, but never-the-less it knew to err on the side of caution. That's what matters.
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Old 02-26-18, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
don't disagree overall it is a forum and you AV may vary. at this point is it entertainment, not education or reality.

My point, consistently is that AV's are coming, but at anywhere near the rapid adoption rate that some project.


My best guess as to the the issues that slow adoptons will be more likely social, legal, business, with some technical issues, and of course requirements issues (what someone made a bike out of bamboo???...I thought they were all carbon, steel and aluminum frames....sensors are not optimized for bamboo) In software is it not the big things that get you......you spend a lot of time on them, it is the 'simple" things that get you.
Rest assured the Lidar visual sensors can "see" bamboo just as readily as steel or carbon.
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Old 02-26-18, 06:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Rest assured the Lidar visual sensors can "see" bamboo just as readily as steel or carbon.
but Elon Musk is not sure of the need for Lidar......

https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/07/el...include-lidar/
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Old 02-26-18, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
don't disagree overall it is a forum and you AV may vary. at this point is it entertainment, not education or reality.

My point, consistently is that AV's are coming, but at anywhere near the rapid adoption rate that some project.


My best guess as to the the issues that slow adoptons will be more likely social, legal, business, with some technical issues, and of course requirements issues (what someone made a bike out of bamboo???...I thought they were all carbon, steel and aluminum frames....sensors are not optimized for bamboo) In software is it not the big things that get you......you spend a lot of time on them, it is the 'simple" things that get you.
That's true about traditional software where every possibility has to be anticipated and coded for, or at least default behaviors have to turn out to be reasonable.

AI software which makes decisions based on data it collects over time is very different. It's not my area of expertise, but I understand enough to know that the decision-making is largely driven by data it collects, not instruction-from-programmer driven.

That's why they keep driving these cars. They're not just testing, they're allowing the cars to self-learn, to collect the data that they use to make decisions in the future.
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Old 02-26-18, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by squirtdad
but Elon Musk is not sure of the need for Lidar......

https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/07/el...include-lidar/
Yes, and that's why his cars run into white trucks and stopped fire trucks.

Maybe he'll figure out how to use radar to provide sufficient information of high enough quality, but right now that technology is not there, and who knows how far away that is. But what is obviously working is the Lidar based stuff. That's definitely what Level 4/5 will be based on, at least initially.
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Old 02-26-18, 08:31 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
Do you actually doubt that these machines will not perform more reliably than human beings?
Yes, but then I am not a fan boy of wishful thinking and PR Dept press releases as substitutes for facts either. Maybe I should view the world through a set of Google Glasses to see the same reality as you.
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Old 02-26-18, 11:03 PM
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I have no doubt that the ideal autonomous car of our dreams would be better than the average driver. But we aren't going to see many multi-million dollar engineering exercises, we are going to be seeing cars made by companies that would trade their grandma for the opportunity to save a penny per unit. Even the ideal autonomous car doesn't really exist at this moment, and it might never exist given the car companies involmement
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Old 02-27-18, 05:53 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Has any of that "data" been released without first careful selection, filtering and massaging by the promoters of the technology in question?
Once again, it is all state required reporting on incidents involving AVs from California, complete with police incident reports.

Something about a horse, and water...
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Old 02-27-18, 07:40 AM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
Once again, it is all state required reporting on incidents involving AVs from California, complete with police incident reports.

Something about a horse, and water...
https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...getting-better
Yes, read this again to refresh your memory about the significance of the "required reporting" before you sing the praises of the pure as driven snow reporting procedures of the testing organizations.
Extracts:
"Every January, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) releases data from companies that operated highly automated vehicles on the state’s public roads the previous year. By law, each company must report how many times a safety driver took control from an autonomous vehicle, either because the system had failed or because the human was worried it had.
Companies get to decide how to record these so-called disengagements. In 2017, for instance, relative newcomer Nvidia logged every single time a human touched the steering wheel of its test vehicle, even at the planned end of a test. Waymo, on the other hand, ran complex computer simulations after each disengagement, and only reported to the DMV those where it believed the driver was correct to take charge, rather than being overly-cautious. GM chose not to report at least one instance where an autonomous car was about to block an intersection.
Such variety in reporting makes for widely disparate data. Nvidia told the DMV that its test runs were typically less than five miles in length, and thus it is not surprising that its car traveled an average of just 4.6 miles between disengagements. Waymo said its 75 test vehicles, in comparison, suffered disengagements only about once every 5,600 miles.
The disengagement reports are thus probably best viewed as marketing documents, indicative of neither the safety of a company’s technology nor its readiness for real-world deployment".

"Despite more companies in the mix, the shine appears to be wearing off from the Golden State for autonomous vehicle testing, with total reported mileage down by more than 20 percent from 2016. BMW, Ford, and Tesla all stopped testing there in 2017, reporting zero autonomous miles along with Honda and Volkswagen, and startups Nio and Wheego. Delphi, now called Aptiv, only covered a tenth of the autonomous miles it reported in 2015. One explanation could be a shift in testing to other locations in the U.S., such as Michigan and Florida, and around the world, that allow fully driverless operation without any public disclosure."



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Old 02-27-18, 09:57 AM
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I wish I could find the video of the Volvo autonomous car running over a spectator at a demonstration.
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Old 02-27-18, 10:12 AM
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Yup .... and Otto Lilienthal and his failed airplanes .... which definitively proved that human beings can never build powered flying machines.
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Old 02-27-18, 10:13 AM
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Volvo Self-Braking Fail

(It was not a self-driving car.)

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Old 02-27-18, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by unterhausen
I have no doubt that the ideal autonomous car of our dreams would be better than the average driver. But we aren't going to see many multi-million dollar engineering exercises, we are going to be seeing cars made by companies that would trade their grandma for the opportunity to save a penny per unit. Even the ideal autonomous car doesn't really exist at this moment, and it might never exist given the car companies involmement
AVs can be far from ideal and still be far better than the average human driver.

Also: don't confuse driver-assist features with Class 4/5 actual self-driving cars.

As to the money-making greed angle, killing people is bad for the AV business. You can rely on their greed to keep AVs from killing people.
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Old 02-27-18, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Yup .... and Otto Lilienthal and his failed airplanes .... which definitively proved that human beings can never build powered flying machines.
A more relevant parallel to the promotion by speculation scheme might be Dean Kamen and the infamously hyped introduction but ultimate fail Segway. It also used the similar change the world of transportation press release hysteria, even suckering such notables as Apple's Steve Jobs, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Intel's Andy Grove, and hot shot investor John Doerr.

Reinventing the Wheel - TIME

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Old 02-27-18, 11:45 AM
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From the NYT today. Nothing new that hasn't been discussed in this thread.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ve-cities.html
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Old 02-27-18, 11:56 AM
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Not sure why the Segway didn't catch on, except that it is expensive, unwieldly, and intimidating.

All those big-name investors know a lot about tech and finance, but i wouldn't ask any of them for relationship advice ... they don't seem to know much about human beings.

I have seen cops on Segways, and a pro photographer but most venues wouldn't let him use a "vehicle."

Plus, put them on sidewalks with pedestrians and they are either uselessly slow or dangerously quick. What is the upside again?
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Old 02-27-18, 11:58 AM
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In the spirt of the Volvo fail, Segway cameraman fail.

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