Go Back  Bike Forums > Bike Forums > Advocacy & Safety
Reload this Page >

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Notices
Advocacy & Safety Cyclists should expect and demand safe accommodation on every public road, just as do all other users. Discuss your bicycle advocacy and safety concerns here.

Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 03-01-18, 07:26 AM
  #1776  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
The best human drivers can go decades without collisions. Even the more average ones often manage to go years.
I suspect that almost any driver could avoid collisions for a long time by choosing to drive only in locations and on routes that avoid potential problems, such as bad weather, difficult left turns, merging in dense traffic, driving faster than 25mph in city traffic etc., and always ready to "disengage" if difficulties do arise and hand control off to the driver backup overseeing the driving at all times in case of problems.

Might even be able to brag even more about that record if the drivers controlled the gathering, analysis and release of all data about their so-called safety record.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 08:28 AM
  #1777  
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 27,079

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 86 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 13658 Post(s)
Liked 4,532 Times in 3,158 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
I suspect that almost any driver could avoid collisions for a long time by choosing to drive only in locations and on routes that avoid potential problems, such as bad weather, difficult left turns, merging in dense traffic, driving faster than 25mph in city traffic etc., and always ready to "disengage" if difficulties do arise and hand control off to the driver backup overseeing the driving at all times in case of problems.

Might even be able to brag even more about that record if the drivers controlled the gathering, analysis and release of all data about their so-called safety record.
You do understand that daily, new inexperienced human drivers hit the roads, right? They don't have "years" of accumulated knowledge, they are easily distracted, and in spite of their fast reflexes, they tend to hit other objects on the roads at such a high rate, insurance companies charge them special premiums.

Every AV is going to come programmed with accumulated knowledge, and the experience of thousands of miles.
genec is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 09:06 AM
  #1778  
Tortoise Wins by a Hare!
 
AlmostTrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Looney Tunes, IL
Posts: 7,398

Bikes: Wabi Special FG, Raleigh Roper, Nashbar AL-1, Miyata One Hundred, '70 Schwinn Lemonator and More!!

Mentioned: 22 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1549 Post(s)
Liked 941 Times in 504 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
You do understand that daily, new inexperienced human drivers hit the roads, right? They don't have "years" of accumulated knowledge, they are easily distracted, and in spite of their fast reflexes, they tend to hit other objects on the roads at such a high rate, insurance companies charge them special premiums.

Every AV is going to come programmed with accumulated knowledge, and the experience of thousands of miles.
Agreed, and that's why the dream of AV's that are safer than run of the mill humans is a good one, I think. Maybe eventually they will be better than at least sloppy and/or inexperienced drivers.

But new, unanticipated yet tricky situations will continue to surprise drivers of all types, man or machine. One has the ability to think and react on the fly, while the other needs to be programmed to deal with these issues.

Do you think AV's can handle an unanticipated, hazardous situation better than you can? Today, or ever? Aren't the AV companies still working out the basics?
AlmostTrick is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 10:16 AM
  #1779  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
You do understand that daily, new inexperienced human drivers hit the roads, right? They don't have "years" of accumulated knowledge, they are easily distracted, and in spite of their fast reflexes, they tend to hit other objects on the roads at such a high rate, insurance companies charge them special premiums.

Every AV is going to come programmed with accumulated knowledge, and the experience of thousands of miles.
You miss the point. Even inexperienced baseball players might have high batting averages and scads of home runs, with no strike outs, IF they were only thrown slow pitches exactly where expected, chest high, right over the middle of the plate with no curves or change ups allowed. Any deviant pitch that caused a miff would be reported as the pitcher's error.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 10:38 AM
  #1780  
Senior Member
 
squirtdad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: San Jose (Willow Glen) Ca
Posts: 9,821

Bikes: Kirk Custom JK Special, '84 Team Miyata,(dura ace old school) 80?? SR Semi-Pro 600 Arabesque

Mentioned: 106 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2332 Post(s)
Liked 2,794 Times in 1,527 Posts
Originally Posted by Rollfast
What ever happened to VH1? did it go away like MTV?
video killed the radio star

__________________
Life is too short not to ride the best bike you have, as much as you can
(looking for Torpado Super light frame/fork or for Raleigh International frame fork 58cm)



squirtdad is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 12:18 PM
  #1781  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
The best human drivers can go decades without collisions. Even the more average ones often manage to go years.



I don't know why you'd prefer to be in an AV that still needs to learn just to reach that point. Now maybe someday they will be better than average drivers, but that day is not today.

And topping the most experienced drivers who have excellent, decades long records, may never be achieved.
The Waymo AVs now all have 5 million miles of real-world experience. No human driver has anywhere near that much experience. But in addition to that, these AVs have 100s of millions of miles of simulated-world experience. Like real-world scenarios injected with an unexpected jay-walking pedestrian or salmon cyclist.

These robots have much more experience than any human. And, yes, that includes driving in snow and all kinds of odd situations.

In the Q&A portion of this recent MIT lecture from Waymo Director of Engineering Sacha Arnoud, he is asked about how the deep learning works. In particular, what if an AV comes upon a scenario that it has not encountered before. Arnoud explains that the way the learning works is to distill fundamental principles from all the scenarios they encounter, and those principles guide them in how to deal with any new scenario. Humans must do the same. But is there any doubt as to whether a computer is better than a human at consistently making principled decisions?

I'm not as impressed by Arnoud as I was by Chris Urmson's presentation, but his is still very enlightening.

Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 12:43 PM
  #1782  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,977
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1638 Post(s)
Liked 741 Times in 495 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Why don't we see how you do in real-time in that situation?
There is no question I would do great. My ability to instantly recognize and react properly to any situation that arises, gives me the advantage.

I have 41 years of driving without an accident-my fault or otherwise or tickets.
__________________
nine mile skid on a ten mile ride
02Giant is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:00 PM
  #1783  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The Waymo AVs now all have 5 million miles of real-world experience. No human driver has anywhere near that much experience. But in addition to that, these AVs have 100s of millions of miles of simulated-world experience. Like real-world scenarios injected with an unexpected jay-walking pedestrian or salmon cyclist.

These robots have much more experience than any human. And, yes, that includes driving in snow and all kinds of odd situations.
No human driver has a second driver on board overseeing the entire operation to take control whenever the first driver disengages due to inability to handle the situation.

Nobody outside of Waymo or its contractors knows what is being simulated, nor the actual results of said simulations.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:13 PM
  #1784  
Tortoise Wins by a Hare!
 
AlmostTrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Looney Tunes, IL
Posts: 7,398

Bikes: Wabi Special FG, Raleigh Roper, Nashbar AL-1, Miyata One Hundred, '70 Schwinn Lemonator and More!!

Mentioned: 22 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1549 Post(s)
Liked 941 Times in 504 Posts
Can an AV "see" this as a potential threat (before anything falls off) and avoid being anywhere close to it? My guess is it will see a normal box truck or semi trailer, and get as close as it would to any other.

"more than 200,000 crashes on U.S. roads between 2011 and 2014.
A study from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety found 39,000 injuries and more than 500 deaths from those incidents during that time,"

AAA warns of accident risk from debris flying off vehicles - KPAX.com | Continuous News | Missoula & Western Montana

While a wise human driver would never allow themselves to be in that death zone.


Oh, and the attached pics are extreme examples. A load doesn't need to be that obvious to still be a serious hazard.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg
load_of_junk.jpg (51.7 KB, 31 views)
AlmostTrick is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:26 PM
  #1785  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 4,530
Mentioned: 34 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2112 Post(s)
Liked 663 Times in 443 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
No human driver has a second driver on board overseeing the entire operation to take control whenever the first driver disengages due to inability to handle the situation.
Some states MANDATE dual brakes for driver's ed vehicles.

-mr. bill
mr_bill is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:50 PM
  #1786  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by mr_bill
Some states MANDATE dual brakes for driver's ed vehicles.

-mr. bill
BFD. Presumably most driver ed students are like Waymo AVs and also not being tested or trained without oversight in real time difficult driving conditions, though I suppose Waymo and its fan bois can brag that its so-called testing and experience are equivalent to driver's ed training.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:55 PM
  #1787  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 4,530
Mentioned: 34 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2112 Post(s)
Liked 663 Times in 443 Posts
So just how do you think driver ed students learn how to drive around Boston?

(It's not the weather, it's the drivers who make "real time difficult driving conditions.")

-mr. bill
mr_bill is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:57 PM
  #1788  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
No human driver has a second driver on board overseeing the entire operation to take control whenever the first driver disengages due to inability to handle the situation.

Nobody outside of Waymo or its contractors knows what is being simulated, nor the actual results of said simulations.
They have been pouring billions into this since 2009. They had autonomous driving working back in 2010 in all kinds of environments - they have been refining every since then.

They have been extremely cautious and obviously not hurrying anything. Well, it's obvious to some of us.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 01:59 PM
  #1789  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
They have been pouring billions into this since 2009. They had autonomous driving working back in 2010 in all kinds of environments - they have been refining every since then.

They have been extremely cautious and obviously not hurrying anything. Well, it's obvious to some of us.
Billions of dollars =/= a proven safety record. Obviously to all but the brainwashed!
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 02:03 PM
  #1790  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by mr_bill
So just how do you think driver ed students learn how to drive around Boston?

(It's not the weather, it's the drivers who make "real time difficult driving conditions.")

-mr. bill
From previous whining about Boston drivers I would guess they never really learn how to safely drive around Boston. Thank goodness AV cars will fix all that, eh?

I'll leave it to you to continue to press the irrelevant to the topic side issue of driver ed controls when discussing how well the AV testing regimen simulates real world driving experience.

Last edited by I-Like-To-Bike; 03-01-18 at 02:09 PM.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 02:05 PM
  #1791  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Billions of dollars =/= a proven safety record. Obviously to all but the brainwashed!
No recorded crashes where it's the car's fault. Sure, for all we know, you might argue, that's because the car disengaged before every potential crash situation and the human driver averted.

Yeah, that's why they've moved on to operating without humans in the driver seat in Arizona (and will in California shortly, as soon as it's approved). Explain to me what happens when the AV disengages with the only humans in the back seat. And how on earth their lawyers would have approved human-driver-less driving if they did not have solid safety records that did not include being saved by human intervention?
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 02:12 PM
  #1792  
Been Around Awhile
 
I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,956

Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,527 Times in 1,040 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Explain to me what happens when the AV disengages with the only humans in the back seat. And how on earth their lawyers would have approved human-driver-less driving if they did not have solid safety records that did not include being saved by human intervention?
You tell me, you seem to think you know all about Waymo's testing methodology and approval process.
I-Like-To-Bike is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 02:14 PM
  #1793  
Banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: NW,Oregon Coast
Posts: 43,598

Bikes: 8

Mentioned: 197 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7607 Post(s)
Liked 1,355 Times in 862 Posts
will they have a separation barrier between the roadway and the bike route?
fietsbob is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 02:56 PM
  #1794  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by genec
You do understand that daily, new inexperienced human drivers hit the roads, right? They don't have "years" of accumulated knowledge, they are easily distracted, and in spite of their fast reflexes, they tend to hit other objects on the roads at such a high rate, insurance companies charge them special premiums.

Every AV is going to come programmed with accumulated knowledge, and the experience of thousands of miles.
* Millions. On roads. And billions of simulated miles.

Last edited by Ninety5rpm; 03-01-18 at 03:16 PM.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 03:04 PM
  #1795  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by fietsbob
will they have a separation barrier between the roadway and the bike route?
bike route?

Did you mean bike lane? Or bike path?

In any case, there is no additional special barrier for AVs. They drive on the same roads as human-driven vehicles. If there is a barrier between the road and the bikeway, then there is. If not; then not.

I sense I don't understand your question. What do you mean by "barrier"? Perhaps you mean a virtual one? Yes, they pass cyclists with a safe passing distance, if that's what you mean, though I wouldn't call that a barrier.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 03:12 PM
  #1796  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
You tell me, you seem to think you know all about Waymo's testing methodology and approval process.
I don't claim or think either. I'm just saying whatever the details, they're adequate for presumably reasonable people who do know all about the testing methodology to approve the company engaging in a program that gives members of the public rides in these cars without human drivers.

I wish @noisebeam or someone in the Phoenix area on this forum, would sign up for the Waymo ride program and give us a firsthand report.
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 03:15 PM
  #1797  
Arizona Dessert
 
noisebeam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 15,030

Bikes: Cannondale SuperSix, Lemond Poprad. Retired: Jamis Sputnik, Centurion LeMans Fixed, Diamond Back ascent ex

Mentioned: 76 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5345 Post(s)
Liked 2,169 Times in 1,288 Posts
I prefer to drive among the AVs instead of in them.

It feels like they are everywhere. Even a short venture out and one will see several, a bit longer and many. Did I mention already on a recent Sat morning bike ride I counted over dozen of them?
noisebeam is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 03:26 PM
  #1798  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Just found this:

"Our sensors observe that the cyclist has extended their left arm. Detecting the cyclist's hand signal, our software predicts that the cyclist will move to the left side of the lane."

"Our software plans for our vehicle to slow down and make room for the cyclist to pass safely and comfortably ahead of us."


https://waymo.com/tech/
Attached Images
File Type: png
waymo-bikes.png (104.0 KB, 22 views)
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 03:27 PM
  #1799  
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,341
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 959 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by noisebeam
I prefer to drive among the AVs instead of in them.

It feels like they are everywhere. Even a short venture out and one will see several, a bit longer and many. Did I mention already on a recent Sat morning bike ride I counted over dozen of them?
Got video?
Ninety5rpm is offline  
Old 03-01-18, 03:31 PM
  #1800  
Arizona Dessert
 
noisebeam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 15,030

Bikes: Cannondale SuperSix, Lemond Poprad. Retired: Jamis Sputnik, Centurion LeMans Fixed, Diamond Back ascent ex

Mentioned: 76 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5345 Post(s)
Liked 2,169 Times in 1,288 Posts
I don't
I know it is not what you are looking for but this was published this week
https://waymo.com/360experience
noisebeam is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.