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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 03-01-18, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
Did I mention already on a recent Sat morning bike ride I counted over dozen of them?
Did all or just most of them fail to detect you and try to hit you?

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Old 03-01-18, 04:07 PM
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They are the ones that make negotiating left turns a pleasure.
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Old 03-01-18, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
They are the ones that make negotiating left turns a pleasure.
About what percentage is operating without a human driver?
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Old 03-01-18, 05:52 PM
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Most have a person in the driver seat, but are not touching the steering wheel.

The oddest thing about watching AV turn is the steering wheel. It appears to spin much faster than when a human turns it.
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Old 03-01-18, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
Most have a person in the driver seat, but are not touching the steering wheel.

The oddest thing about watching AV turn is the steering wheel. It appears to spin much faster than when a human turns it.
Huh.

About what percentage of the AVs are the Waymo Chrysler Pacificas? And they usually have the driver in the seat too? Perhaps they're not sending out the early riders without a human driver yet?
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Old 03-01-18, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
Most have a person in the driver seat, but are not touching the steering wheel.

The oddest thing about watching AV turn is the steering wheel. It appears to spin much faster than when a human turns it.
Likely has a much lower ratio in the steering gear box to better mate with an electric motor?
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Old 03-01-18, 06:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Huh.

About what percentage of the AVs are the Waymo Chrysler Pacificas? And they usually have the driver in the seat too? Perhaps they're not sending out the early riders without a human driver yet?
Not without that divider wall separating the bike lane!
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Old 03-01-18, 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
Likely has a much lower ratio in the steering gear box to better mate with an electric motor?
I suspect it is the same ratio as humans drive them too. I think it is just an 'illusion' as we are so used to seeing hands drive the wheel and don't notice how fast it is being turned.
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Old 03-01-18, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Huh.

About what percentage of the AVs are the Waymo Chrysler Pacificas? And they usually have the driver in the seat too? Perhaps they're not sending out the early riders without a human driver yet?
The majority are Waymo. I very often don't see (or look) if there is a driver or not. Reports say there are some with no human in drivers seat, but I can't say if I have seen one or not.
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Old 03-01-18, 07:45 PM
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/mone...ars/385812002/
Gov. Doug Ducey on Thursday moved to maintain Arizona's status as the most permissive state for self driving cars.
The governor issued a new executive order that makes it clear the robot cars don't need a driver behind the wheel if they follow all the traditional traffic laws and rules for cars and drivers.
...
It says driverless vehicles are only allowed if they are fully autonomous and the operator submits a statement to the Department of Transportation declaring:
  • The vehicle complies with federal law
  • That it will "achieve a minimal risk condition" if the vehicle has a malfunction
  • The vehicle is capable of complying with all laws and regulations
  • That the person testing or operating the autonomous vehicle may be issued a citation or other penalty if laws are broken
  • The autonomous vehicle is properly licensed, registered and insured
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Old 03-01-18, 08:18 PM
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That's radical. The California draft is WayMo complicated, requiring remote control in an emergency, for example.
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Old 03-01-18, 08:26 PM
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Florida is currently essentially wide open for driverless vehicles. They're now voting on legislation to add some parameters.


https://qz.com/781113/how-florida-be...-driving-cars/
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Old 03-02-18, 12:06 PM
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Probably might be a toss up. At least a self driving car will not be drunk or on a cell phone.
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Old 03-02-18, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
That's radical. The California draft is WayMo complicated, requiring remote control in an emergency, for example.
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Old 03-02-18, 02:52 PM
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So this MIT study finds that Lyft/Uber drivers only earn a few bucks per hour, which probably explains why few last longer than a year.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/02/mi...or-lyft-sucks/

If true (the study findings are challenged by Uber), that suggests that the actual cost of the human driver is less than I previously assumed (or, rather, the vehicle-related costs are more), that the advantages of self-driving will be less than I thought, and fares in self-driving AVs won't be all that much lower than current Uber/Lyft fares.

That means pooling will be critical to success, and much harder to pull off without the significantly lower costs/fares I was assuming.

Hmm.

I can hear @I-Like-To-Bike gloating already.
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Old 03-02-18, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
So this MIT study finds that Lyft/Uber drivers only earn a few bucks per hour, which probably explains why few last longer than a year.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/02/mi...or-lyft-sucks/

If true (the study findings are challenged by Uber), that suggests that the actual cost of the human driver is less than I previously assumed (or, rather, the vehicle-related costs are more), that the advantages of self-driving will be less than I thought, and fares in self-driving AVs won't be all that much lower than current Uber/Lyft fares.

That means pooling will be critical to success, and much harder to pull off without the significantly lower costs/fares I was assuming.

Hmm.

I can hear @I-Like-To-Bike gloating already.
An epiphany!
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Old 03-02-18, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
That means pooling will be critical to success, and much harder to pull off without the significantly lower costs/fares I was assuming.

Hmm.

I can hear @I-Like-To-Bike gloating already.
Perhaps you should stop making all sorts of fanciful assumptions based on believing in whatever was written in the last press release or Internet article that you read. Start with your assumptions of a superior safety record to be achieved when and if these self driving vehicles are ever let loose off limited and/or severely restricted routes.
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Old 03-02-18, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Perhaps you should stop making all sorts of fanciful assumptions based on believing in whatever was written in the last press release or Internet article that you read. Start with your assumptions of a superior safety record to be achieved when and if these self driving vehicles are ever let loose off limited and/or severely restricted routes.
I don't understand your obsession with letting them "loose off limited and/or severely restricted routes".

First, my understanding is they are not limited to any routes whatsoever - the limits are perimeters. Once a perimeter is certified, the cars may take any routes within that perimeter.

Second, however limited the perimeters are initially, their geometric growth is inevitable. Maybe they'll start with Tempe, then expand to Mesa and Scottsdale, then all of Phoenix proper. Then Glendale and the entire metro area. What's the big deal with incremental growth in perimeter like that?

Finally, the vast majority of all Uber/Lyft/taxi rides today are provided by cars/drivers that are limited to a given perimeter, by necessity and practical considerations, if nothing else. Why the big hangup with any such limitations for AV taxis, for whatever reason? The electric ones will be limited by battery range anyway.
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Old 03-02-18, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
I don't understand your obsession with letting them "loose off limited and/or severely restricted routes".

First, my understanding is they are not limited to any routes whatsoever - the limits are perimeters. Once a perimeter is certified, the cars may take any routes within that perimeter.

Second, however limited the perimeters are initially, their geometric growth is inevitable. Maybe they'll start with Tempe, then expand to Mesa and Scottsdale, then all of Phoenix proper. Then Glendale and the entire metro area. What's the big deal with incremental growth in perimeter like that?

Finally, the vast majority of all Uber/Lyft/taxi rides today are provided by cars/drivers that are limited to a given perimeter, by necessity and practical considerations, if nothing else. Why the big hangup with any such limitations for AV taxis, for whatever reason? The electric ones will be limited by battery range anyway.
Your "understanding" about the testing operations and its relationship to any creating a credible business model for AV for hire operations is a joke.

Nothing is "inevitable" about self driving taxi business growth if it can't promise or credibly project a suitable return on investment

You seem to think consumers' transportation choice only includes taxis, or Uber type hailed vehicles People can safely be drunk, read, sleep, stare in to their phones etc. now with a taxi or Uber, yet these for hire vehicles only provide a relatively small subset of the miles that are driven everyday transporting the public. What advantage would the absence of a human driver provide the public that they don't have available now?
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Old 03-02-18, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Start with your assumptions of a superior safety record to be achieved when and if these self driving vehicles are ever let loose off limited and/or severely restricted routes.
I think that is pretty well known already. Machines can perform better than humans.

Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Nothing is "inevitable" about self driving taxi business growth if it can't promise or credibly project a suitable return on investment
That's a much more open question. I believe it's a pretty good bet such vehicles can be economically viable as shuttles in urban areas, but have my doubts they will substantially replace conventional vehicles in the near term. As I've said before, I have no doubt there will be commercially available AV taxis in some urban areas within five years. Whether it's viable or not, there's too much invested at this point not to continue on just to prove they can do it.
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Old 03-03-18, 01:04 AM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
Whether it's viable or not, there's too much invested at this point not to continue on just to prove they can do it.
A huge company like Alphabet/Waymo can afford to lose a few billion on a new technology that ultimately does not pan out for them. It's a calculated risk. If Waymo went belly up tomorrow it wouldn't even put a dent in Alphabet's stock. Toyota and Honda invested billions in fuel cell technology...and never made a dime from it - even though they proved the technology works. But neither are they going to go bankrupt from it anytime soon, or ever. To them the money lost is pocket change.
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Old 03-03-18, 02:57 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
No human driver has a second driver on board overseeing the entire operation to take control whenever the first driver disengages due to inability to handle the situation.

Nobody outside of Waymo or its contractors knows what is being simulated, nor the actual results of said simulations.
Really, no human driver has a second driver overseeing their driving?

What do they call drivers ed instructors... with the brake pedals on the passenger side... chopped liver? And what about provisional licences for new human drivers... that require someone 21 or older as a passenger?

Sure looks like "ride along humans" for new human drivers!
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Old 03-03-18, 06:19 AM
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I think you are all a little short-sighted in thinking that companies like Waymo are only interested in fleet cars for ride-shares. Eventually almost Every vehicle on almost every road will be autopiloted, and every vehicle, even vehicles sold for use in more rural areas where route freedom is required, will have full autopilot capabilities (so they can join urban/suburban traffic flow.)

When autopilots are more developed, the safety offered by keeping humans away from the controls will be so much greater that by contrast, wanting humans to drive will seem stupid.

That is the future those companies envision. Whether or not their cars are useful for Uber drivers is totally unimportant. That is just the easiest way to get them on the road so people can start to accept them.

I have no idea how any of this will work out and neither does anyone else here ... neither the people who smugly assume that AVs will be the future, nor those who think they never will be. But we could at least discuss the matter reasonably---and it is unreasonable to think Waymo etc are all going to end their projects because there is no significant savings compared to having human taxi drivers. That is not what it is about at all.
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Old 03-03-18, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
Really, no human driver has a second driver overseeing their driving?

What do they call drivers ed instructors... with the brake pedals on the passenger side... chopped liver? And what about provisional licences for new human drivers... that require someone 21 or older as a passenger?

Sure looks like "ride along humans" for new human drivers!
Yes your response about the training of new drivers does amount to nothing more than a side dish of chopped liver to the main course of dreamy projections of a wonderful safety record for driver less vehicles based on promoters' PR about their goals and the limited release of information about tests (only in carefully selected locations) of so-called AV test vehicles that do have human backup of the controls.
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Old 03-03-18, 08:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
I think you are all a little short-sighted in thinking that companies like Waymo are only interested in fleet cars for ride-shares. Eventually almost Every vehicle on almost every road will be autopiloted, and every vehicle, even vehicles sold for use in more rural areas where route freedom is required, will have full autopilot capabilities (so they can join urban/suburban traffic flow.)

When autopilots are more developed, the safety offered by keeping humans away from the controls will be so much greater that by contrast, wanting humans to drive will seem stupid.

That is the future those companies envision. Whether or not their cars are useful for Uber drivers is totally unimportant. That is just the easiest way to get them on the road so people can start to accept them.

I have no idea how any of this will work out and neither does anyone else here ... neither the people who smugly assume that AVs will be the future, nor those who think they never will be. But we could at least discuss the matter reasonably---and it is unreasonable to think Waymo etc are all going to end their projects because there is no significant savings compared to having human taxi drivers. That is not what it is about at all.
You are correct that you have no idea how any of this will work out, yet you pontificate about exactly how this will all work out:
"Eventually almost Every vehicle on almost every road will be autopiloted, and every vehicle, even vehicles sold for use in more rural areas where route freedom is required, will have full autopilot capabilities (so they can join urban/suburban traffic flow.)

When autopilots are more developed, the safety offered by keeping humans away from the controls will be so much greater that by contrast, wanting humans to drive will seem stupid."
BTW, there are no posters here who posted that they "think they never will be." That is just another of your own straw man arguments fabricated for your own entertainment.
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