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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 03-09-18, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
The difference is what, exactly? You are implying you can't trust computers to drive cars, because they have oversight (which isn't generally being used to override the vehicle, and which is slowly starting to go away completely). Why do you trust airplanes, who we still require two pilots to monitor even though the majority of what they do is sit around and stare at gauges?
How many left/right turns does an airplane need to make while in flight?

How many significant changes in speed are necessary due to traffic conditions while in flight?

How many stops and starts are necessary due to traffic conditions while in flight?

How much unpredictable traffic is in the immediate vicinity of airplanes while in flight that may require an immediate correction to avoid a collision?

How many intersections, merges, yields, traffic lights, stop signs are there to navigate through with other aircraft in the immediate proximity while in flight?

How many human road traffic controllers are guiding or providing instructions about other vehicles to prevent potential collisions to ground based vehicles?

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Old 03-09-18, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
How many left/right turns does an airplane need to make while in flight?

How many significant changes in speed are necessary due to traffic conditions while in flight?

How many stops and starts are necessary due to traffic conditions while in flight?

How much unpredictable traffic is in the immediate vicinity of airplanes while in flight that may require an immediate correction to avoid a collision?

How many intersections, merges, yields, traffic lights, stop signs are there to navigate through with other aircraft in the immediate proximity while in flight?

How many human road traffic controllers are guiding or providing instructions about other vehicles to prevent potential collisions to ground based vehicles?
WOW. You really think these are hard problems for AI to deal with. That explains much.
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Old 03-09-18, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
WOW. You really think these are hard problems for AI to deal with. That explains much.
You're serious aren't you? That explains much about your various predictions on this list.
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Old 03-09-18, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
You're serious aren't you? That explains much about your various predictions on this list.
Look at your list.

Google/Waymo was doing left/right turns, countless stops and starts and handling "changes in speed are due to traffic conditions" since 2010. This is trivial.

Handling unpredictable traffic is more challenging but they have encountered so many different scenarios from which they have honed general principles to apply to any other situation that arises that it's highly unlikely they'll encounter anything they can't handle. And even if they do, they err on the side of caution and stop.

I don't know how well they recognize and respond to human road traffic controllers, but I know they handle bicyclist signals, as @noisebeam has noted, which are less predictable and harder.
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Old 03-09-18, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Of course it is in its infancy. Despite what some soothsayers are predicting, successful fielding of a practical driver less vehicle suitable for personal or commercial use is not right around the corner, nor is such success inevitable or guaranteed, no matter how much money is thrown at the project.
This is old news now, I'm surprised you haven't seen it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/12/b...rless-car.html

Two months ago, General Motors requested permission from the Department of Transportation, to allow it to begin mass manufacturing its self driving, steering wheel less, pedal less Chevy Bolt. They want to begin putting the car in the streets on a mass scale starting in 2019.

The first few thousand vehicles will be used in a ride sharing service GM is starting.

I guess I just shattered your entire world view. My apologies.
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Old 03-09-18, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Look at your list.
Like Duh, man. You totally missed the point of my response to jefnvk who asked about what the exact difference might be between flying in air traffic vice driving in road traffic. Like you, he seems to think that air traffic and hands off flying software/hardware solutions are virtually interchangeable with road traffic and driver free hardware/software issues.
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Old 03-09-18, 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Yan
This is old news now, I'm surprised you haven't seen it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/12/b...rless-car.html

Two months ago, General Motors requested permission from the Department of Transportation, to allow it to begin mass manufacturing its self driving, steering wheel less, pedal less Chevy Bolt. They want to begin putting the car in the streets on a mass scale starting in 2019.

The first few thousand vehicles will be used in a ride sharing service GM is starting.

I guess I just shattered your entire world view. My apologies.
We'll see if GM's dreamy press releases about their future projects come any closer to timely fruition than Elon Musk's.
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Old 03-10-18, 03:58 AM
  #1883  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
We'll see if GM's dreamy press releases about their future projects come any closer to timely fruition than Elon Musk's.
Did you read the article? It's not a 'future' project. It's done.

The only thing holding it back now is permission from the DoT. It's going to hit the mass production lines later this year.

Elon Musk's project has succeeded as well. Amazing to see:


You sound like the people in the late 1700s telling everyone the newly discovered electricity was useless.
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Old 03-10-18, 07:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Yan
Did you read the article? It's not a 'future' project. It's done.

The only thing holding it back now is permission from the DoT. It's going to hit the mass production lines later this year.

Elon Musk's project has succeeded as well. Amazing to see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k

You sound like the people in the late 1700s telling everyone the newly discovered electricity was useless.
Right, the press release about a future project is "done". Mass manufacturing of practical driver less, self driving cars is not "done" let alone bringing such vehicles to the market place for the public to use for transportation.

Right, developing a rocket to launch into outer space and recovering the boosters on a deserted launch pad is the same thing as bringing practical driver less, self driving cars to the market place.

Right, discovering electricity is the same thing as bringing practical driver less, self driving cars to the market place.

Sounds just like more bogus b-b-b-but no one expected the Smartphone phenomenon analogies.
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Old 03-10-18, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Right, the press release about a future project is "done". Mass manufacturing of practical driver less, self driving cars is not "done" let alone bringing such vehicles to the market place for the public to use for transportation.

Right, developing a rocket to launch into outer space and recovering the boosters on a deserted launch pad is the same thing as bringing practical driver less, self driving cars to the market place.

Right, discovering electricity is the same thing as bringing practical driver less, self driving cars to the market place.

Sounds just like more bogus b-b-b-but no one expected the Smartphone phenomenon analogies.
It takes several years to design a vehicle. If they are asking for government permission to start manufacturing later this year, it means the technology is complete. They have designed the vehicle, completed prototype testing, and constructed the production line. Driverless vehicles are a reality, whether you like it or not. I'm not sure why you are inviting public ridicule on yourself with such an adamant troglodyte attitude about the topic. Maybe you're a taxi driver?

Recovering rocket boosters is infinitely more difficult than designing a self driving car. The boosters also don't have to come down on land. Space X has successfully recovered the boosters onto robotic, human-less ship platforms. Plenty of videos online. Again, fairly old news now. You really should catch up.

I mentioned electricity to highlight your anti technology attitude. Nobody is saying discovering electricity is the same as designing automobiles. Discovering electricity was much harder, given the state of human knowledge at that time.

Lost me on the smartphone thing. No idea what you're trying to say.

For all the time you have spent in this thread, you seem to know very little about the topics being discussed. I would suggest you take a break from arguing with people online, and from posting about your personal beliefs, conjectures, and claims. You should go do some research online, catch up on the latest technological breakthroughs of the last five years. You will be surprised by now much news you have missed.
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Old 03-10-18, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Yan
It takes several years to design a vehicle. If they are asking for government permission to start manufacturing later this year, it means the technology is complete. They have designed the vehicle, completed prototype testing, and constructed the production line. Driverless vehicles are a reality, whether you like it or not. I'm not sure why you are inviting public ridicule on yourself with such an adamant troglodyte attitude about the topic. Maybe you're a taxi driver?

Recovering rocket boosters is infinitely more difficult than designing a self driving car. The boosters also don't have to come down on land. Space X has successfully recovered the boosters onto robotic, human-less ship platforms. Plenty of videos online. Again, fairly old news now. You really should catch up.

I mentioned electricity to highlight your anti technology attitude. Nobody is saying discovering electricity is the same as designing automobiles. Discovering electricity was much harder, given the state of human knowledge at that time.

Lost me on the smartphone thing. No idea what you're trying to say.

For all the time you have spent in this thread, you seem to know very little about the topics being discussed. I would suggest you take a break from arguing with people online, and from posting about your personal beliefs, conjectures, and claims. You should go do some research online, catch up on the latest technological breakthroughs of the last five years. You will be surprised by now much news you have missed.
WOW dude, well said. The smart phone thing was probably what I said awhile back, about how fast it all happened and the same could/would happed to AV in the next few years...

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Old 03-10-18, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Yan
...Recovering rocket boosters is infinitely more difficult than designing a self driving car...
I agree with most of what you're saying Yan but not this statement. A self-driving car in real world traffic is more of a challenge than landing the SpaceX rockets on the seagoing drone platform.

But to keep things in perspective, much less money has been applied to self-landing rocket boosters than self-driving cars.
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Old 03-10-18, 06:05 PM
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The difference with AV's is that any failures or bugs could easily kill people. Smart phones and remote rockets, not so much.

And one reason they are asking governments for permission early is because governments take time to work out the rules and laws. Like years. Many, no most, areas have not even started to look into this. I'm not saying AV's becoming a big thing will never happen, just that it'll take much longer than some in this thread are dreaming it will... and a couple of high profile crashes will push it back even more.

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Old 03-10-18, 06:13 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
I'm not saying AV's becoming a big thing will never happen, just that it'll take much longer than some in this thread are dreaming it will... and a couple of high profile crashes will push it back a bunch.
Nobody has said that AV's becoming a big thing will never happen, that is just a strawman (along with ad hominem)argument for those who apparently can't discern the difference between the problems of designing a practical self driving, driver less vehicle capable of operating safely on public roads amongst numerous other vehicles not under the control of the AV vehicle, and space travel, piloting commercial aircraft in flight, and/or smartphones.
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Old 03-10-18, 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Nobody has said that AV's becoming a big thing will never happen...

Ok, we're making progress.
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Old 03-10-18, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
Ok, we're making progress.
Really...? I bet he means something like in 50 years, and only taxis or busses, not most vehicles...
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Old 03-10-18, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Nobody has said that AV's becoming a big thing will never happen, that is just a strawman (along with ad hominem)argument for those who apparently can't discern the difference between the problems of designing a practical self driving, driver less vehicle capable of operating safely on public roads amongst numerous other vehicles not under the control of the AV vehicle, and space travel, piloting commercial aircraft in flight, and/or smartphones.
My comments were neither strawman nor ad hominem. My guess is that Yans post stung and you are just lashing out in defense. This is what a strawman comment looks like:

Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Do you believe the future safety record of bicyclists can be determined from observing/"testing" toddlers on bikes with training wheels, with a parent running alongside, in an empty parking lot or similar location selected to avoid problems?
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Old 03-10-18, 10:30 PM
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https://www.wired.com/story/californ...ving-car-laws/
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Old 03-10-18, 11:40 PM
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This is interesting:

The new rules do require a remote operator be able to control the vehicle—so expect to hear more about the quietly booming field of teleoperations.
In a sense, you'll still be paying for a driver, you'll just be paying less for a driver. But it won't be a "driver", it will be a "remote transportation experience representative", or if you're lucky it will be a "senior remote transportation experience representative". If you have enough money you can get a "executive transportation experience senior representative". But that's nothing - VIP members can get the highest rated transportation experience management professionals the city of Las Vegas can offer...
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Old 03-11-18, 12:50 AM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
The difference with AV's is that any failures or bugs could easily kill people. Smart phones and remote rockets, not so much.
Rockets definitely can...then again, that's why they have several real live, trained people with destruct buttons closely monitoring them at all times from ignition to final shutdown. If AVs have that, it sort of defeats the purpose of automating them in the first place.
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Old 03-11-18, 01:21 AM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
How many left/right turns does an airplane need to make while in flight?
Quite a few, actually, but given that TCAS is focused on maintaining miles of separation from any other traffic, they just turn when they're programmed to. Not exactly realistic to space cars out ~30-45 seconds apart in all directions. (And standard TCAS only avoids other aircraft with the proper transponder installed and functioning properly.)

How much unpredictable traffic is in the immediate vicinity of airplanes while in flight that may require an immediate correction to avoid a collision?
Only Harrison Ford.
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Old 03-11-18, 07:10 AM
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Rockets definitely can...then again, that's why they have several real live, trained people with destruct buttons closely monitoring them at all times from ignition to final shutdown. If AVs have that, it sort of defeats the purpose of automating them in the first place.
Yes, rockets can kill people too, but their maneuvers are performed far away from people, (cyclists included) not right alongside them like AV's will be required to do. I'd say the chance of a rocket killing innocent humans is quite rare.
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Old 03-11-18, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted by tyrion
This is interesting:



In a sense, you'll still be paying for a driver, you'll just be paying less for a driver. But it won't be a "driver", it will be a "remote transportation experience representative", or if you're lucky it will be a "senior remote transportation experience representative". If you have enough money you can get a "executive transportation experience senior representative". But that's nothing - VIP members can get the highest rated transportation experience management professionals the city of Las Vegas can offer...
I found this interesting, especially considering that one of the biggest proponents of AV's on this thread asked another poster if he saw an AV without a driver in his area.

But all these vehicles, however capable, have a decidedly un-futuristic feature: There’s a human in the driver's seat, ready to grab control in case the robot goes rogue. It's not just common sense, it's the law.
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Old 03-11-18, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
My comments were neither strawman nor ad hominem. My guess is that Yans post stung and you are just lashing out in defense. This is what a strawman comment looks like:
Your guess is incorrect; my response to Yan's post and others who display similar lapses in rational thought on this topic is amusement at best, usually just dismay at such babble. I have no need to defend myself from foolish ad hominem and strawman arguments.

The analogy I used was right on target to the argument that the relatively "baby step" testing of a product in tightly restricted (and monitored by humans) conditions or in simulations (where the test results are not released to anyone not paid by the promoters) somehow provides sufficient relevant data for posters to predict about a future safety when the product will be used under entirely different scenarios with far more unexpected variables and more difficult situations than used in the testing mode.

IOW in the real world, self-driving driver-less "AVs" will no longer have the "training wheels" of riding only in preferred "safer" test locations, routes and weather conditions, and will no longer have daddy running alongside the vehicle (AKA human oversight of the operation) in case something unexpected happens.
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Old 03-11-18, 08:11 AM
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Clicking this URL on Firefox browser returns:
"Corrupted Content Error

The site at https://www.wired.com/story/californ...ving-car-laws/ has experienced a network protocol violation that cannot be repaired.

The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because an error in the data transmission was detected.

Please contact the website owners to inform them of this problem."

The site does work on the Chrome browser.

Most relevant fact:
"The new rules do require a remote operator be able to control the vehicle"

Advantage for the vehicle owner or the user of using a remote operator service over a regular taxi with a paid driver, other than, at least so far, the test operators cannot charge anything for the ride, let alone what it really costs?

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