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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

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Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?

Old 03-12-18, 05:29 PM
  #1926  
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
I'm no expert in AI, but I know enough to recognize nonsense when I see it. That letter is nonsense. But of the signatories, perhaps my favorite is the President of the Truck Safety Coalition, which survives from truck crashes (by representing truck crash victims and their families). Gee, I wonder why they're against AVs.
Well, praise the lord and pass the ammunition, we have [a] self-elected bicycle expert[s] amongst us.

-mr. bill

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Old 03-12-18, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick


Eager as some of them may be, I think you underestimate the amount of details that must be worked out before full driverless auto legislation can be approved. Cali’s been at it since 2006 and still isn’t there. Has the federal government even started?
They're legal in Florida. The legislature didn't really worry about details. They were going to go back and add a few details this session, but I don't believe they ultimately brought the bill to the floor.
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Old 03-12-18, 06:52 PM
  #1928  
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Well, praise the lord and pass the amunition, we have [a] self-elected bicycle expert[s] amongst us.

-mr. bill
OK, I'm not saying he is 100% right... BUT, when electricity first came about, how many people were electrocuted...? I would say many people were afraid they would be, and a few were, I am certain... Then things worked out, amazing how that happens over and over, with new technologies...
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Old 03-12-18, 08:37 PM
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As California prepares for companies to begin testing driverless vehicles without backup drivers in April, data offers a glimpse at where the autonomous functions have been disengaged during tests so far.
When Are AVs Turning Over Control to Human Drivers?

I've been wondering who, besides the AV companies, sees the AV disengagement data. As a non-expert (one of the few here? ) I learned a few things from this article and found it quite informative. I hope ILTB can open it.

Interestingly, one of the "recurring issues" experienced by many of these companies’ vehicles" (causing disengagement) was cyclists.

On the other hand, one AV "saw" 188 cyclists in a 30 minute San Fran drive. Didn't hit a single one.

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Old 03-12-18, 09:02 PM
  #1930  
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Your reference has much the same skepticism/warnings about the value/integrity of the reporting methods of the promoters that I previously referenced at https://theconversation.com/are-auto...-drivers-90202.

Which our esteemed parrot of the good news PR from Google, poo-pooed as "swill" and "click bait", confirming once again his willingness to act as an unpaid (I assume) shill for them just as he appears to be the same for a specific cycling course.
"So what do these “disengagement reports” show? We decided to have a look.

First, from Car and Driver magazine, a caveat about these statistics that purportedly show how many close calls various car companies have had with their autonomous fleets. As writer Pete Bigelow explained in a story earlier this month, “the annual reports on autonomous testing in California required by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles are far from a perfect measure of any company’s self-driving competence.”

While they do provide a few new details on what led to the self-driving system being shut off by a concerned human operator, the reports provide a somewhat flawed picture when trying to compare one company’s track record with another’s.

The problem, says Bigelow, is that it’s apples and oranges: 'One company’s low number of disengagements may occur during testing on empty highways, while another company’s high number may have occurred during testing in busy urban areas.'"
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Old 03-14-18, 05:45 AM
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Originally Posted by berner
Auto pilots have been used in aircraft for decades, Not merely to hold a course, but to takeoff and land. In an aircraft though, the environment is fairly predictable barring mechanical emergencies.
More to the point, autopilot is continuously monitored by two extremely highly trained humans on any large commercial flight and doesn't do any complex decision making at all. (IIRC, some will automatically make a pre-programmed course adjustment in response to a TCAS alert, but that's about as "fully automated" as the little light in the refrigerator coming on all by itself.)

And, of course, ATC is still done by humans.
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Old 03-14-18, 05:50 AM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
So you're just haggling over the time frame?
Time frame matters; nobody's claiming personal teleporters will never be practical, but I don't know anyone holding their breath for the release date.

And besides, even the Enterprise has a helmsman. Or do you think Data is going to be in mass production as a chauffeur soon?
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Old 03-14-18, 05:53 AM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
OK, I'm not saying he is 100% right... BUT, when electricity first came about, how many people were electrocuted...?
Probably not many, since I'm fairly certain they were a few geological eras away from existing at that point.

Haven't seen billions of cycles worth of automation blasting down from the clouds at random, though.
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Old 03-14-18, 06:14 AM
  #1934  
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Originally Posted by KD5NRH
Time frame matters; nobody's claiming personal teleporters will never be practical, but I don't know anyone holding their breath for the release date.
Except in this case we're talking about technology that actually exists.
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Old 03-14-18, 08:57 AM
  #1935  
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Trucks banned from "test tracks."

-mr. bill

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Old 03-14-18, 10:18 AM
  #1936  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Your reference has much the same skepticism/warnings about the value/integrity of the reporting methods of the promoters that I previously referenced at https://theconversation.com/are-auto...-drivers-90202.

Which our esteemed parrot of the good news PR from Google, poo-pooed as "swill" and "click bait", confirming once again his willingness to act as an unpaid (I assume) shill for them just as he appears to be the same for a specific cycling course.
"So what do these “disengagement reports” show? We decided to have a look.

First, from Car and Driver magazine, a caveat about these statistics that purportedly show how many close calls various car companies have had with their autonomous fleets. As writer Pete Bigelow explained in a story earlier this month, “the annual reports on autonomous testing in California required by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles are far from a perfect measure of any company’s self-driving competence.”

While they do provide a few new details on what led to the self-driving system being shut off by a concerned human operator, the reports provide a somewhat flawed picture when trying to compare one company’s track record with another’s.

The problem, says Bigelow, is that it’s apples and oranges: 'One company’s low number of disengagements may occur during testing on empty highways, while another company’s high number may have occurred during testing in busy urban areas.'"
Hey bud, it's me, your reality check, again. Since you brought up Google, allow me to shatter your world view once more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.21d391e3f359

In case you suffer another convenient browser issue, I've pasted the relevant paragraphs for you:

"Fiat Chrysler Automobiles USA recently announced an agreement to supply thousands of Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans to Waymo (Google's self driving car brand) to support the launch of the world’s first driverless ride-hailing service.

Waymo has been testing its fleet of autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans in Phoenix for years, but the vehicles have been ferrying the public around portions of town without a backup driver since November. The company, which has a 600-vehicle fleet in Phoenix, says its testing is “picking up speed” and recently announced plans to order thousands more Pacificas as it expands into other cities.

Waymo has released a video showing early riders in the company’s pilot program in Phoenix as they adapt to their first self-driving car experience, moving from anxious excitement to giddiness to anti-climactic sleepiness in the space of a single ride.

Consider it the three stages of autonomous vehicle acceptance.

Some passengers in the videomarvel at the car’s steering wheel turning on its own and laugh when other drivers notice they’re sharing the road with an autonomous vehicle. But then something else happens: Passengers begin texting on their phones, calmly staring out the windows and eventually becoming drowsy."



Look at you, getting more educated every day. You're welcome.

Last edited by Yan; 03-14-18 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 03-14-18, 12:23 PM
  #1937  
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Originally Posted by Yan
Hey bud, it's me, your reality check, again. Since you brought up Google, allow me to shatter your world view once more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.21d391e3f359

In case you suffer another convenient browser issue, I've pasted the relevant paragraphs for you:

"Fiat Chrysler Automobiles USA recently announced an agreement to supply thousands of Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans to Waymo (Google's self driving car brand) to support the launch of the world’s first driverless ride-hailing service.

Waymo has been testing its fleet of autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans in Phoenix for years, but the vehicles have been ferrying the public around portions of town without a backup driver since November. The company, which has a 600-vehicle fleet in Phoenix, says its testing is “picking up speed” and recently announced plans to order thousands more Pacificas as it expands into other cities.

Waymo has released a video showing early riders in the company’s pilot program in Phoenix as they adapt to their first self-driving car experience, moving from anxious excitement to giddiness to anti-climactic sleepiness in the space of a single ride.

Consider it the three stages of autonomous vehicle acceptance.

Some passengers in the videomarvel at the car’s steering wheel turning on its own and laugh when other drivers notice they’re sharing the road with an autonomous vehicle. But then something else happens: Passengers begin texting on their phones, calmly staring out the windows and eventually becoming drowsy."



Look at you, getting more educated every day. You're welcome.
. Just another highly edited fluff piece from Waymo without any pertinent detail such as route. Did the volunteers hail the AV from home or anywhere else convenient and go anywhere in the geo-fenced area (which was what/where exactly) or did they only just board at the place designated by Waymo and get off where designated by Waymo and only on a route and time selected by Waymo to match Google's mapping/ and software requirements? Did the passengers have any flexibility to go to destinations or locations not predetermined by Waymo? Was the ride with or without a Google/Waymo employee on board?

BTW, has anyone figured out who is going to pay for constant mapping/remapping updates of every street and route where these hailed taxis are supposed to safely transport paying passengers? Or will these AV taxis be restricted to drive only on routes that have a "current" 3-D map that never is updated when road conditions change? How current will be considered current? Perhaps in Phoenix roads never change and the sun is always shining but that will not be the case when they exit their Phoenix test track.
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Old 03-14-18, 01:05 PM
  #1938  
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Freaking hilarious. "Well, they all need human drivers!" Well, actually, they haven't, for months. "Well, then something else!"

"It's flat. Look, you can see the horizon. It's Flat! Flat, flat, flat!"
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Old 03-14-18, 02:42 PM
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I do share [MENTION=20232]I-Like-To-Bike[/MENTION]'s skepticism if applied specifically to Uber, Tesla, VW, GM Cruise, etc. That is, almost everyone except for Waymo. I think anyone working with Aurora Innovation is probably in good hands too.

Here's an article outlining some serious problems the Cruise cars are having in San Francisco.This suggests there might be fundamental problems with their approach.

"Cruise cars frequently swerve and hesitate," Efrati reports. "They sometimes slow down or stop if they see a bush on the side of a street or a lane-dividing pole, mistaking it for an object in their path." In one case, Efrati says, Cruise employees trimmed a bush ahead of a demonstration for journalists to make sure the car wouldn't swerve while driving past it.
...
[Cruise] self-driving car rides are often slower than a ride in a human vehicle—sometimes as much as 10 to 20 minutes slower. A big reason for that: "some San Francisco intersections and streets are 'blacklisted,' in some cases temporarily, and the cars must take circuitous routes around them."

An intersection might be blacklisted because its traffic light is too faint, because it has a complex roundabout, or because it requires a difficult lane merge.


https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03...-driving-cars/

These problems don't sound like minor glitches, but, rather, serious deficiencies that should have been addressed in simulations in the lab before the cars are even let loose on real roads. I mean, being freaked out by a bush?

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Old 03-14-18, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
I do share [MENTION=20232]I-Like-To-Bike[/MENTION]'s skepticism if applied specifically to Uber, Tesla, VW, GM Cruise, etc.
Ummmm .... you need to read the posts of that guy Ninety5rpm.

He explains how those problems will eventually be overcome.

More seriously ... do read the stuff you post.

Cruise and others are rushing to get into the market before Waymo locks it up (or most of it) and they are playing catch-up, but do you think that Waymo got every expert on the planet? more likely they started sooner and tested better, and the new cars are being rushed onto the street with less testing ... but they will go through the same process, just more publicly. They will err and falter, techs will rewrite and rewire, they will improve, they will learn from error ... all the stuff you have been talking about lo, these long ages ... (well, it seems like forever.)

Seriously, read your posts. You explained all this to yourself.
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Old 03-14-18, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Ummmm .... you need to read the posts of that guy Ninety5rpm.

He explains how those problems will eventually be overcome.

More seriously ... do read the stuff you post.

Cruise and others are rushing to get into the market before Waymo locks it up (or most of it) and they are playing catch-up, but do you think that Waymo got every expert on the planet? more likely they started sooner and tested better, and the new cars are being rushed onto the street with less testing ... but they will go through the same process, just more publicly. They will err and falter, techs will rewrite and rewire, they will improve, they will learn from error ... all the stuff you have been talking about lo, these long ages ... (well, it seems like forever.)

Seriously, read your posts. You explained all this to yourself.
The bush confusion thing is really disturbing. Apparently they can't even drive by a bush a few times and teach the car that it's not a hazard. They need to physically prune it! Blacklisted intersections? That's exactly the kind of bull excrement ILTB has been predicting.

I've seen no evidence that Tesla is doing anything significant beyond their moronic Level 2 systems.

Not sure about Uber, but I get the sense they're likely to have the same issues as Cruise.

The current head of Waymo had a speech recently in which the theme was something like when you're 90% done you've only done 10% of the work. All these other companies appear to be a long way from figuring it out.
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Old 03-14-18, 04:50 PM
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Don't give up now, 95!

Maybe they can include hedge trimmers with the cars.
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Old 03-14-18, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
Don't give up now, 95! Maybe they can include hedge trimmers with the cars.
Excellent.

Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
Not sure about Uber, but I get the sense they're likely to have the same issues as Cruise.
Bogus.

You “get the sense”? You mean, “I just made up some total out of my fundament waste material because I somehow believed it would strengthen my point if I lied”?

You have some Facts about Uber? Or just “sensations ….”?

In any case … whatever.

It seems like the only sensible people posting top this thread are the ones trying to post nonsense, and the ones thinking they are posting for real are beating everyone with the nonsense posts.

Most of your posts have been about how people overcome technological problems … and now you are adamant that it is impossible that those people will ever overcome those technical problems.

Bless your heart …..
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Old 03-14-18, 05:04 PM
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Oh, I'm not giving up. It's just my impression that Waymo has been doing this carefully for years without any particular hurry, getting it right. All these other guys are behind the curve and panicking. I know the stark difference in software quality that results from these two types of approaches.

If they can't recognize a frickin' bush to be a bush, how are they going to accurately identify bicyclists???
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Old 03-14-18, 05:29 PM
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Woah ... Dude ... Differences of Opinion?

Do they do that around here?

Radical.
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Old 03-14-18, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick
Don't give up now, 95!

Maybe they can include hedge trimmers with the cars.
Or get better press agents and/or run tests only in locations with lax oversight to assure that only good news/positive news gets released to the public or regulatory agencies (if there is any regulation at all).
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Old 03-14-18, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Or get better press agents and/or run tests only in locations with lax oversight to assure that only good news/positive news gets released to the public or regulatory agencies (if there is any regulation at all).
Let's hope not.
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Old 03-15-18, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Ninety5rpm
The bush confusion thing is really disturbing. Apparently they can't even drive by a bush a few times and teach the car that it's not a hazard. They need to physically prune it! Blacklisted intersections? That's exactly the kind of bull excrement ILTB has been predicting.

I've seen no evidence that Tesla is doing anything significant beyond their moronic Level 2 systems.

Not sure about Uber, but I get the sense they're likely to have the same issues as Cruise.

The current head of Waymo had a speech recently in which the theme was something like when you're 90% done you've only done 10% of the work. All these other companies appear to be a long way from figuring it out.
Relevant to the promotion of a revolutionary AV industry/products based on promises of future success and lots of money invested in it (AKA fake-it-until-you-make-it-culture), see https://www.wired.com/story/theranos...ke-it-culture/

Extract:
More significant than the news is the message it’s meant to send to all Silicon Valley startups—not just those whose photogenic CEOs land on magazine covers.

“The Theranos story is an important lesson for Silicon Valley,” said Jina Choi, director of the SEC’s San Francisco Regional Office, in a statement. “Innovators who seek to revolutionize and disrupt an industry must tell investors the truth about what their technology can do today, not just what they hope it might do someday.

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Old 03-15-18, 09:19 AM
  #1949  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Relevant to the promotion of a revolutionary AV industry/products based on promises of future success and lots of money invested in it (AKA fake-it-until-you-make-it-culture), see https://www.wired.com/story/theranos...ke-it-culture/

Extract:
More significant than the news is the message it’s meant to send to all Silicon Valley startups—not just those whose photogenic CEOs land on magazine covers.

“The Theranos story is an important lesson for Silicon Valley,” said Jina Choi, director of the SEC’s San Francisco Regional Office, in a statement. “Innovators who seek to revolutionize and disrupt an industry must tell investors the truth about what their technology can do today, not just what they hope it might do someday.

Very striking example mr ILTB... but also note that it was one company, trying to pull off this “fake tech.”

Unlike the AV tech approach, which is being driven by dozens of companies, with combined and independent approaches. Sure, perhaps any one of those latter companies may fail, may not deliver, based on their “promises,” but it is highly unlikely that an entire tech sector is somehow trying to pull the wool over our eyes.
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Old 03-15-18, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
Very striking example mr ILTB... but also note that it was one company, trying to pull off this “fake tech.”

Unlike the AV tech approach, which is being driven by dozens of companies, with combined and independent approaches. Sure, perhaps any one of those latter companies may fail, may not deliver, based on their “promises,” but it is highly unlikely that an entire tech sector is somehow trying to pull the wool over our eyes.
Well said. However, I realize that it's possible that everyone but Waymo is underestimating the effort to get from Level 3 to Level 4 - Waymo has been at this since 2009, and has been very conservative from what I can tell. And yet they're ordering thousands of minivans to be outfitted with what appears to be genuine Level 4 tech.
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