mr_bill

What is the source of your "data?"

Sadly FARS has a new query system that currently doesn't allow you to query much. (But it finally is giving us visibility into estimated road injuries.)

However, from the summary tables for bike fatalities 2018:

Total: 857
Under the influence: 53, 6.2%
No lights when required: 9, 1.1%
Not visible (dark clothing, no lighting, etc.): 85, 9.9%
Wrong-way riding: 36, 4.2%
Children under 20: 102, 11.9%


NC has had an accessable query system for some time, which used to allow deep dives, INCLUDING injuries. But alas, they too are updating, so some of the details (such as bicycle lights) are not currently available.

From NC 2014-2018 inclusive (most recent five years) bike fatalities:

Total: 104
Bicyclist alcohol use: 17, 16.3% (defined as ANY detectable alcohol)
No lights: currently unavailable
Biking against traffic: 8, 7.7%
Children 20 and under: 16, 15.4%
Children 18 and under: 14, 13.5%

-mr. bill

JeffreyD

Millions of people ride on the roads and less than 1000 are killed while riding and the numbers of bicyclists and pedestrians killed and injured has been on the increase the last few years because of distracted driving and increased speeds and the penalties favor car and truck drivers. We can increase our odds of survival by practice safe driving, take a traffic skills class, wear bright clothing, have lights front and back and wear a helmet ... and maybe prayer. If you don’t feel safe biking on a road with large vehicles often exceeding the posted speed limit and not respecting your right to be there then bike on trails only because your lack of skills and confidence makes us all less safe.

1989Pre

If you think autos are coming too close to you on passes, then you didn't grow up in the city. I don't care how someone passes me, as long as they do. It's the one who fails to pass, and the one I'll never see, who is the one that will be most consequential. Though most of us try to minimize the risk, the inherent danger of the sport is a large part of what makes cycling fun. Let's face it, guys, we have a lot of nerve. See you on the other side

merlinextraligh

The 30% for alcohol impairment is cited all over the place. Just one example: https://bayareabicyclelaw.com/safety-laws/bike-stats/

Ken Keifer's data is getting a bit dated, but its still illustrative: Is Cycling Dangerous? -- The Risk of Bicycle Use -- Accidents, Fatalities, Injuries, and Benefits

JoeyBike

Just about any activity is safe, until you are the one represented by a ghost bike. The issue is binary in nature. 0 = no catastrophe, 1 = DEAD. So a year of successful cycling would look like: 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Expressed as a binary listing, you can see how many chances you would have to earn a "1". Cycling for 30 years? Here ya go:

0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000
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0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
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0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Enjoy your next ride! Gunna be either a 1 or a 0. Cheers!

Leisesturm

Now we are getting silly. The fatalism is bad enough but the ridiculously binary "no catastrophe" or "dead" is just over the top. There are myriad consequential outcomes resulting from an unwanted collision with an automobile. Broken bones, concussions, lacerations, internal and external injuries of all kinds that while not fatal require medical attention, maybe even hospitalization. And, as long as I have this thread open again ... trails may be free from motor traffic but that doesn't mean a cyclist can't hit a tree or other fixed object. A cyclist could collide with another cyclist or pedestrian. A cyclist riding in the street with all due caution can be safer than one who is riding the trails smug and secure that ...

livedarklions

I'll be damned if I understand why you think that illustrated anything but your inability to understand probability. Literally every activity humans engage in from getting out of bed to walking into a burning building could be expressed in that manner. It tells you absolutely nothing about your odds of getting killed every time you engage in that activity.

Macster

Well, he had fun doing it, so there’s that. lol

lapola

a pickup at a intersection. Not the first time someone has died during goba. My girlfriend rides too, and the thought of losing scares me

whitecat

The problem is, living on Earth. When one is living on Earth, he/she runs the risk of being hit by a.... meteor. It is even worse if said meteor hits you while you are riding your bike, and if it hurts as it burns a clear hole in your leg or arm trough a bone, it might cause you to crash when your muscles burn aways where it hits. So how are you going to mitigate this risk?

JoeyBike

Tulane University environmental sciences professor Stephen A. Nelson has calculated the odds of getting killed by a meteorite at about 1 in 250,000.

According to Dr. Nelson's statistics, murder (1 in 185), tornado (1 in 60,000), flood (1 in 27,000), and airplane crash (1 in 30,000) are much more likely killers. By comparison, the chances of winning the PowerBall lottery are 1 in more than 195 million. LINK

The odds of being in a bicycle accident: 1 in 4,717 LINK

Smoking related deaths are 1 in 9, just for perspective.

What are the odds of being bitten by a shark if you never swim in open waters? ZERO. What are the odds of getting in a bicycle accident if you quit riding your bike? Yep. ZERO.

Pretty simple really.

livedarklions

Actually, you're wrong. You can be hit by a bicycle if you're a pedestrian.

But more to the point, if you do the 0 and 1 method of illustrating the probabilities day to day, the odds of getting hit by a meteorite in any given day would look the same as the illustration you produced for bicycling--a long series of zeros.

Even more to the point, if you want to say anything meaningful about comparative probabilities, you should be comparing probabilities for the activities one is engaging in instead of cycling.

JoeyBike

Agreed, but the presumption is that a person giving up cycling around auto traffic because they perceive that as too dangerous would substitute something with fewer risks or scenarios out of their direct control. Cycling in traffic is putting your life into SOMEONE ELSE'S hands. Free climbing El Capitan (for example) puts all the risk into the participant's hands. I would bet a paycheck there are multitudes of athletes participating in "extreme" sports who wouldn't risk cycling around motorists. I trust my skills, not every Joe-Blow stoned out of their gourd motoring up behind me. This is my point.

alo

I avoid busy roads most of the time. On rare occasions there may not be other options. Where busy roads have side walks, I often ride on the side walks, particularly when they have little or no pedestrians. It is legal where I live. If it wasn't, I would probably do it anyway. That way, I should live long enough to do it again. On roads with little traffic, I often ride on the roads.

I think cyclists need to do what they can to minimize risks. Accidents sometimes occur because drivers don't see cyclists, or don't see them soon enough.

I know different people are in different situations. Some may not have the same options.

livedarklions

If you think driving in traffic isn't at the mercy and care of other drivers, you really know nothing about driving. If you think walking around traffic isn't at the mercy and care of drivers, or skateboarding or whatever around traffic, I want what you're smoking.

I get that you are too nervous to ride anymore, but I don't get why you feel a need to try to convince people to catch your phobia. Your probability arguments are complete nonsense.

livedarklions

There's a fair amount of data indicating that sidewalk riding is actually more dangerous because of driveways and the position you're in at intersections actually makes it harder to be seen by drivers.

Even where it's legal, I almost never do it. I don't know your local conditions, but be careful of a false sense of security.

I-Like-To-Bike

I've seen quite a lot of "expert" advice and explanations posted about the reasons why sidewalk riding is thought to be more dangerous than riding in the adjacent street or road, but I can't recall seeing any credible data for adult riders indicating the same.

livedarklions

bike.cornell.edu/pdfs/Sidewalk_biking_FAQ.pdf

bicyclinglife.com/Library/Accident-Study.pdf

alo

A lot of it is common sense. There are too many situations you can be in to describe them all. I keep my eye on cars in driveways when the driver starts the motor. Mostly drivers look. But if they don't see me, I stop. Sometimes I go on to the road when approaching intersections. Sometimes I stay on the side walk, and give way to all traffic.

I am still alive to talk about it.

livedarklions

Yeah, I always defer to people to know what's appropriate for their local conditions. I find there's a lot of blind "intersection" situations with driveways due to shrubs, garages, etc. that shield the view from both the driver and the rider so I avoid it even where it's legal.

JoeyBike

Not certain why you are directing this at me. ANYTHING that puts me elbow to elbow with motorized traffic brings substantial risks. And most road users don't get killed by motor vehicles, the get killed by idiot or incompetent motorists. I don't smoke.

A fellow human being came here and started this thread because he was concerned about risks regarding traffic. Unlike some cable TV 'news' channels and popular radio hosts, I don't just tell you what you WANT TO HEAR, I tell you what you NEED TO KNOW. From personal experience, and from the heart.

livedarklions

And there's the point, most people don't have the opportunity to segregate themselves from traffic, so it's really a matter of whether they're being exposed to it as a pedestrian, a rider or a driver.

You aren't telling people anything they need to know, you're making bogus probability arguments trying to convince them not to ride. Frankly, going repeatedly to a cycling forum to do that is pretty weird behavior. I

​​​​Seriously, when you found yourself typing hundreds of zeroes, didn't any part of you notice it didn't make any sense?

Guess what, your probability of dying at some point is identical to mine-- 1 chance in 1. I have a slightly higher chance than you of doing so on a bike, but it's still a very low probability event. I'm sure you have a slightly higher chance of getting killed on a skateboard than I do, but there's literally dozens of other causes besides skateboarding and cycling that are far more likely to take either of us down.

rumrunn6

yup

Leisesturm

Are you guys still at it? Recent threads seem to indicate that a cyclists only risk on the road is distracted drivers. This is FALSE! 50% of cyclist fatalities do not involve a car! The cyclist collided with a fixed object or lost control due to a road surface irregularity or slick condition. Smoking is a bad idea but non-smokers living in big cities shouldn't be smug about it. A New Yorker 'smokes' the equivalent of four or five cigarettes every day because the air is so bad. L.A. is very similar. A city like Portland or Chicago is way less polluted but still measurable. And finally, riding on sidewalks is not a best practice. It just isn't. Done right you will be traveling at 1/2 the speed you would normally travel at on the road. Most cities of any size don't allow adults to do it. Portland does but I don't take them up on it very often. When and if I do it is for a specific and limited set of circumstances.

bobwysiwyg