If you cycle or walk in America, the fatality stats are not just your imagination.
12-26-22, 03:19 PM
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If you cycle or walk in America, the fatality stats are not just your imagination.
The Exceptionally American Problem of Rising Roadway Deaths
Ms. Langenkamp was, improbably, the third foreign service officer at the State Department to die while walking or biking in the Washington area this year. She was killed in August in suburban Bethesda, Md. Another died in July while biking in Foggy Bottom. The third, a retired foreign service officer working on contract, was walking near the agency’s headquarters in August. That is more foreign service officers killed by vehicles at home than have died overseas this year, noted Dan Langenkamp, Ms. Langenkamp’s husband and a foreign service officer himself.
“It’s infuriating to me as a U.S. diplomat,” he told the rally in her honor, “to be a person that goes around the world bragging about our record, trying to get people to think like us — to know that we are such failures on this issue.”
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That assessment has become increasingly true. The U.S. has diverged over the past decade from other comparably developed countries, where traffic fatalities have been falling. This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021.
“It’s infuriating to me as a U.S. diplomat,” he told the rally in her honor, “to be a person that goes around the world bragging about our record, trying to get people to think like us — to know that we are such failures on this issue.”
.
That assessment has become increasingly true. The U.S. has diverged over the past decade from other comparably developed countries, where traffic fatalities have been falling. This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021.
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12-26-22, 04:05 PM
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The road deaths didn't go down because the US wasn't on the kind of lockdown Europe was, and everyone started road tripping and cycling. Commuter traffic decreased, but a whole bunch of people were out on the road in campers and bikes that weren't used to either.
I'll bet hiking deaths went up, too.
I'll bet hiking deaths went up, too.
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12-26-22, 04:11 PM
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The road deaths didn't go down because the US wasn't on the kind of lockdown Europe was, and everyone started road tripping and cycling. Commuter traffic decreased, but a whole bunch of people were out on the road in campers and bikes that weren't used to either.
I'll bet hiking deaths went up, too.
I'll bet hiking deaths went up, too.
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12-26-22, 08:42 PM
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A TXDOT study cites speed:
“Why did we see a decrease in pedestrian and bicycle crashes, but an increase in fatalities in 2020?
The unique circumstances caused by the pandemic in 2020 had a profound effect on traffic safety. There was less traffic delay on Texas roadways in 2020 than in 2019 (TTI, 2021) and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) decreased by 13.2 percent across the U.S. during 2020 (NHTSA, 2021). American roadway infrastructure is designed for speed, and speed is a decisive factor in crash severity (Bolotnikova, 2021). Therefore, higher speeds due to lower traffic volumes equals more fatal crashes. This is especially concerning for pedestrians and bicyclists who already have a lower likelihood of surviving a crash involving a motor vehicle at higher speeds.“
My narrow vision of Texas is consistent with this conclusion. Motorists in my area sped up during the lockdown and have not yet slowed much.
(Reference: https://www.walkbikesafetexas.org/wp...rev.pdf#page40)
“Why did we see a decrease in pedestrian and bicycle crashes, but an increase in fatalities in 2020?
The unique circumstances caused by the pandemic in 2020 had a profound effect on traffic safety. There was less traffic delay on Texas roadways in 2020 than in 2019 (TTI, 2021) and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) decreased by 13.2 percent across the U.S. during 2020 (NHTSA, 2021). American roadway infrastructure is designed for speed, and speed is a decisive factor in crash severity (Bolotnikova, 2021). Therefore, higher speeds due to lower traffic volumes equals more fatal crashes. This is especially concerning for pedestrians and bicyclists who already have a lower likelihood of surviving a crash involving a motor vehicle at higher speeds.“
My narrow vision of Texas is consistent with this conclusion. Motorists in my area sped up during the lockdown and have not yet slowed much.
(Reference: https://www.walkbikesafetexas.org/wp...rev.pdf#page40)
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12-26-22, 09:26 PM
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The road deaths didn't go down because the US wasn't on the kind of lockdown Europe was, and everyone started road tripping and cycling. Commuter traffic decreased, but a whole bunch of people were out on the road in campers and bikes that weren't used to either.
I'll bet hiking deaths went up, too.
I'll bet hiking deaths went up, too.
...a revolution in car safety brought more seatbelt usage, standard-issue airbags and safer car frames, said Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute.
Fatalities fell as a result, in the U.S. and internationally. But as cars grew safer for the people inside them, the U.S. didn’t progress as other countries did to prioritizing the safety of people outside them.
“Other countries started to take seriously pedestrian and cyclist injuries in the 2000s — and started making that a priority in both vehicle design and street design — in a way that has never been committed to in the United States,” Mr. Freemark said.
Other developed countries lowered speed limits and built more protected bike lanes. They moved faster in making standard in-vehicle technology like automatic braking systems that detect pedestrians, and vehicle hoods that are less deadly to them. They designed roundabouts that reduce the danger at intersections, where fatalities disproportionately occur.
In the U.S. in the past two decades, by contrast, vehicles have grown significantly bigger and thus deadlier to the people they hit. Many states curb the ability of local governments to set lower speed limits. The five-star federal safety rating that consumers can look for when buying a car today doesn’t take into consideration what that car might do to pedestrians.
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These diverging histories mean that while the U.S. and France had similar per capita fatality rates in the 1990s, Americans today are three times as likely to die in a traffic crash, according to Mr. Freemark’s research.
Fatalities fell as a result, in the U.S. and internationally. But as cars grew safer for the people inside them, the U.S. didn’t progress as other countries did to prioritizing the safety of people outside them.
“Other countries started to take seriously pedestrian and cyclist injuries in the 2000s — and started making that a priority in both vehicle design and street design — in a way that has never been committed to in the United States,” Mr. Freemark said.
Other developed countries lowered speed limits and built more protected bike lanes. They moved faster in making standard in-vehicle technology like automatic braking systems that detect pedestrians, and vehicle hoods that are less deadly to them. They designed roundabouts that reduce the danger at intersections, where fatalities disproportionately occur.
In the U.S. in the past two decades, by contrast, vehicles have grown significantly bigger and thus deadlier to the people they hit. Many states curb the ability of local governments to set lower speed limits. The five-star federal safety rating that consumers can look for when buying a car today doesn’t take into consideration what that car might do to pedestrians.
.
These diverging histories mean that while the U.S. and France had similar per capita fatality rates in the 1990s, Americans today are three times as likely to die in a traffic crash, according to Mr. Freemark’s research.
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12-26-22, 09:42 PM
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New estimates from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) show that nearly 43,000 people died in crashes in 2021, an 11% jump from 2020. Fatalities and serious injuries among pedestrians and cyclists, in particular, have skyrocketed by more than 50% in the past decade, dramatically outpacing overall roadway deaths.
Data confirms the role of vehicle design in exacerbating the safety emergency unfolding on our nation’s streets, with studies from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and Consumer Reports documenting direct links between increased vehicle size and weight, reduced visibility from the driver’s seat and rising traffic fatalities.
Data confirms the role of vehicle design in exacerbating the safety emergency unfolding on our nation’s streets, with studies from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and Consumer Reports documenting direct links between increased vehicle size and weight, reduced visibility from the driver’s seat and rising traffic fatalities.
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12-26-22, 10:32 PM
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Youtube just recommended this video to me. It's 3 years old and I have no idea what region or country it represents. I'm assuming the world.
Probability of death
Bicycle 1:4050
Pedestrian by car crash: 1: 556
car crash: 1:113
Probability of death
Bicycle 1:4050
Pedestrian by car crash: 1: 556
car crash: 1:113
12-26-22, 10:39 PM
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...imagination, is funny. It makes a cloudy day sunny.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/u...x_guide_recirc
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/u...x_guide_recirc
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12-27-22, 09:23 AM
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If you're going to blame this long term difference in trends to just one thing that only affected a few months, that's kind of a silly argument.
I was riding around during the height of the shut-down in the U.S. and what I saw was that the traffic was down to delivery trucks and a few people who were driving like there weren't any speed limits. Traffic was light, but it was like watching the Road Warrior movies. Different countries in Europe had varying degrees of lock-down. If you really want to prove your assertions, you'll need to compare them for bicycle/pedestrian fatality trends.
12-27-22, 09:26 AM
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Nuh-uh. The OP was only in part about 2020 and since. Read a little more carefully:
"That assessment has become increasingly true. The U.S. has diverged over the past decade from other comparably developed countries, where traffic fatalities have been falling. This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021."
There's nothing in there to suggest that what's happened since 2020 was not part of a longer-term trend.
12-27-22, 10:36 AM
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12-27-22, 01:13 PM
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Ah, yup:
This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021.
This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021.
12-27-22, 01:28 PM
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Ah, yup:
This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021.
This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Preliminary federal data suggests road fatalities rose again in 2021.
So no, I'm not introducing anything new in the argument. What I am doing is to stop responding to you.
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12-27-22, 02:17 PM
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...if you read my second post, the extended quote in it is from the original referenced article in the Times. It's longer than the first quote, but so is the article, if you choose to read it. In the next post, that quote is from a link that is referenced in the original Times piece. I can only give you the references, I can't make you read them.
So no, I'm not introducing anything new in the argument. What I am doing is to stop responding to you.
So no, I'm not introducing anything new in the argument. What I am doing is to stop responding to you.
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12-27-22, 05:02 PM
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Whenever I see stat reports like this, I remind myself of the story of the statistician who drowned in a river with an average depth of 3 feet.
While number do tell a story, it's easy to misunderstand the story they tell. There are all sorts of factors which can affect the numbers, so any effort to draw conclusions must include a careful analysis to see the story behind the story.
I remember the reports of declining murder rates in major US cities many decades back. It looked like great news until it was noted that the attempted murder rates went up over the same period. Turns out that emergency response and treatment improved so the odds of survival improved.
In any case, we don't individually live or die based on statistics. What matters is what we each do to in our daily lives.
While number do tell a story, it's easy to misunderstand the story they tell. There are all sorts of factors which can affect the numbers, so any effort to draw conclusions must include a careful analysis to see the story behind the story.
I remember the reports of declining murder rates in major US cities many decades back. It looked like great news until it was noted that the attempted murder rates went up over the same period. Turns out that emergency response and treatment improved so the odds of survival improved.
In any case, we don't individually live or die based on statistics. What matters is what we each do to in our daily lives.
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12-27-22, 05:53 PM
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Whenever I see stat reports like this, I remind myself of the story of the statistician who drowned in a river with an average depth of 3 feet.
While number do tell a story, it's easy to misunderstand the story they tell. There are all sorts of factors which can affect the numbers, so any effort to draw conclusions must include a careful analysis to see the story behind the story.
I remember the reports of declining murder rates in major US cities many decades back. It looked like great news until it was noted that the attempted murder rates went up over the same period. Turns out that emergency response and treatment improved so the odds of survival improved.
In any case, we don't individually live or die based on statistics. What matters is what we each do to in our daily lives.
While number do tell a story, it's easy to misunderstand the story they tell. There are all sorts of factors which can affect the numbers, so any effort to draw conclusions must include a careful analysis to see the story behind the story.
I remember the reports of declining murder rates in major US cities many decades back. It looked like great news until it was noted that the attempted murder rates went up over the same period. Turns out that emergency response and treatment improved so the odds of survival improved.
In any case, we don't individually live or die based on statistics. What matters is what we each do to in our daily lives.
Note also that in general, claiming that you didn't see someone you kill on a bicycle while driving, is a successful defense against any legal ramifications.
Then read this.
The numbers (over the longer term) are pretty clear on this. Talk about lies, damn lies, and statistics simply distracts from the things we could do as a nation to reduce these fatalities.
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12-27-22, 06:06 PM
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...note that the original posted link mentions the state department employee who was crushed because "she was riding in the blind spot" of a truck.
Note also that in general, claiming that you didn't see someone you kill on a bicycle while driving, is a successful defense against any legal ramifications.
Then read this.
The numbers (over the longer term) are pretty clear on this. Talk about lies, damn lies, and statistics simply distracts from the things we could do as a nation to reduce these fatalities.
Note also that in general, claiming that you didn't see someone you kill on a bicycle while driving, is a successful defense against any legal ramifications.
Then read this.
The numbers (over the longer term) are pretty clear on this. Talk about lies, damn lies, and statistics simply distracts from the things we could do as a nation to reduce these fatalities.
However, we do seem to have very different worldviews. You, like many here focus on improving safety through institutional changes. OTOH - I prefer to try to improve safety by teaching folks how to stay safe.
Using the case tou cited as an example, you're focused on blaming a driver for hooking a cyclist that he might not have seen (not accepting the excuse, just citing the factual possibility). I'm more interested in teaching about the very specific hazard of being in blind spots at intersections
So, we're in agreement about the goal, but have different opinions on how best to get there. However, they're not mutually exclusive, and both are important.
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12-27-22, 07:54 PM
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You and I usually agree, and this isn't really an exception.
However, we do seem to have very different worldviews. You, like many here focus on improving safety through institutional changes. OTOH - I prefer to try to improve safety by teaching folks how to stay safe.
Using the case tou cited as an example, you're focused on blaming a driver for hooking a cyclist that he might not have seen (not accepting the excuse, just citing the factual possibility). I'm more interested in teaching about the very specific hazard of being in blind spots at intersections
So, we're in agreement about the goal, but have different opinions on how best to get there. However, they're not mutually exclusive, and both are important.
However, we do seem to have very different worldviews. You, like many here focus on improving safety through institutional changes. OTOH - I prefer to try to improve safety by teaching folks how to stay safe.
Using the case tou cited as an example, you're focused on blaming a driver for hooking a cyclist that he might not have seen (not accepting the excuse, just citing the factual possibility). I'm more interested in teaching about the very specific hazard of being in blind spots at intersections
So, we're in agreement about the goal, but have different opinions on how best to get there. However, they're not mutually exclusive, and both are important.
I just don't think anyone will spend the money on these things unless they are mandated and required.
It's not that I don't understand the hazards of driving stuff that is big and unwieldy. I just find it unacceptable that these side scanning techo-thingies are not currently mandated by law. And car designs that willingly impose visual limitations to the rear and sides, with the hope that a backup camera will somehow remedy the situation are just wrong from the getgo. In essence, we have said to the vehicle manufacturing industry that anything goes in terms of clear visibility. Those cars and trucks will still be on the road for another 20-30 years. It needs to change, if we are to have any hope of moving in a better direction on pedestrian and bicycle fatalities.
That way, even the people you are not able to teach have a better chance of survival. Remember the idea that if we just get enough cyclists on the road, drivers will start paying more attention to them ? That ship has sailed.
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12-27-22, 10:18 PM
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...I'm just tired of being told that my failure to make myself as visible as is humanly possible on a bicycle, (which I try to do), is a legit excuse ...
. I drove big, articulated fire trucks for many years.....
Those cars and trucks will still be on the road for another 20-30 years. .....
Remember the idea that if we just get enough cyclists on the road, drivers will start paying more attention to them ?.....
. I drove big, articulated fire trucks for many years.....
Those cars and trucks will still be on the road for another 20-30 years. .....
Remember the idea that if we just get enough cyclists on the road, drivers will start paying more attention to them ?.....
Since you drove a long vehicle, you know how low turning speeds are in the city. Timing things out supports the notion that hooked bicycles are likely to have been behind the truck, and cycled into the kill zone AFTER the truck started its turn. Of course, we don't know if they signaled it. So, while not excusing drivers, I feel obligated to remind cyclists about not contributing to their own demise.....
As you point out, even with Improved designs and various safety mandates, the existing fleet will outlive me, and many here. .....
Lastly, I guess I'm just stubborn, but I never bought into the idea that more bikes on the road would magically make us safer.
Last edited by FBinNY; 12-27-22 at 10:27 PM.
12-27-22, 10:33 PM
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It seemed so logical. "They have a lot of bikes on the road in the Netherlands, and cyclists are statistically much safer there. Once we get significant numbers of cyclists on the roads In America, our country will follow suit. Recruit more cyclists." Now I feel stupid for believing it.
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12-27-22, 10:51 PM
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....I fell for that line. It seemed so logical. "They have a lot of bikes on the road in the Netherlands, and cyclists are statistically much safer there. Once we get significant numbers of cyclists on the roads In America, our country will follow suit. Recruit more cyclists." Now I feel stupid for believing it.
It seemed so logical. "They have a lot of bikes on the road in the Netherlands, and cyclists are statistically much safer there. Once we get significant numbers of cyclists on the roads In America, our country will follow suit. Recruit more cyclists." Now I feel stupid for believing it.This forum reflects that. Many here firmly believe that our issues can only be solved by others changing. Outliers like me believe that change begins at home.
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“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
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12-28-22, 06:45 AM
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People keep trying to compare the USA to some other country. It never works for various reasons. IMO, one of the key differences that works against us is cultural. We're a society obsessed with "RIGHTS", while our counterparts are more interested in how to work together toward goals.
This forum reflects that. Many here firmly believe that our issues can only be solved by others changing. Outliers like me believe that change begins at home.
This forum reflects that. Many here firmly believe that our issues can only be solved by others changing. Outliers like me believe that change begins at home.
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12-28-22, 07:49 AM
#23
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We also have vehicles and higher speeds, so more fatalities would be expected. Although that doesn't really explain the relative change in rates.
12-28-22, 09:29 AM
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12-28-22, 11:39 AM
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People keep trying to compare the USA to some other country. It never works for various reasons. IMO, one of the key differences that works against us is cultural. We're a society obsessed with "RIGHTS", while our counterparts are more interested in how to work together toward goals.
If I say any more, this probably goes to P+R. But my personal opinion is that you are mistaking a dearth of leadership for a national mindset.
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