77Univega

--- Given that bicycling advocacy is becoming politically influential, and given that by 2010 the general motoring public will have (finally) accepted the inevitability of Peak Oil, what changes do you expect will occur in YOUR bicycling experience?

I expect:

slvoid

No change.
In fact, as gas prices soar, drivers become increasingly irritated and more irrational; making the claim that since they're paying more than ever, they're entitled to the road more than ever too; making them less and less tolerant to anything else on the road.

Boston Commuter

I like your optimistic predictions. But just for contrast, here are some less optimistic possibilities. I hope your predictions turn out to be truer than these:

1. More cars jury-rigged to run on nonstandard fuels (coal, wood, fryer oil) without regard for the amount of pollution produced
2. Rise in the cost of bicycles and components, increase in bike theft
3. Increasing numbers of abandoned Walmarts and similar big-box stores
4. Some suburbs losing value and beginning to transform into the new slums
5. More wars over oil and other resources

Travelinguyrt

More wars, chaos and bombings.

US economy non existant, armed neighborhoods

Army patroling Wash. DC and the rest of the country has to protect itself cause the Nat'l guard refuses to mobilize and the Army hasn't the trrops needed, kids refuse to enlist to shoot neighbors

Remember the movie Mad Max??

georgiaboy

HAL-9000: What is going to happen?
Dave: Something wonderful.
HAL-9000: I'm afraid.
Dave: Don't be. We'll be together.
HAL-9000: Where will we be?
Dave: Where I am now

galen_52657

No change in overall land use patterns - people will continue to migrate from cities/ring suburbs to exurbs.

Longer and longer commutes to work will be viewed as the price of employment.

Gasoline powered internal combustion engines will be slowly phased out and replaced by hybrid gas/electric, diesel/electric and hydrogen power for vehicles. Hopefully, this will result in reduced greenhouse gas emissions, but may be offset by increased population and more miles drive per capita.

Current trend of lopsided division of wealth will continue unabated, with rich getting richer and poor getting poorer. Middle class will continue its downward spiral. Rich will reside in private neighborhoods behind high fences with locked gates and armed guards. Rich people’s children will attend private schools and rich people will have private health care facilities unavailable to the middle class and poor. Average life span of rich will continue to increase while life span of poor and middle class continue to decrease. Infant mortality rate of poor will continue to rival 3rd world countries.

The USA will de-evolve into a feudal state run by and for the rich to continue their dominance over the rest of the population. Eventually, the middle class (whom have fancied themselves on the way to joining the rich, but never quite make it) will eventually see that the rich are able to maintain their dominance on the backs of middle class/poor’s labor. Middle class and poor will finally come together and overthrow the rich, reestablishing estate taxes, progressive income taxes and property taxes to pay for schools and infrastructure and universal health care. A progressive politician will be elected President and establish a $5 per gallon tax on auto fuel as well as a $5,000 per thousand pound tax on autos and trucks that weigh over one ton used for personal transportation.

These taxes will be used to condemn, purchase and recapture unused rail and trolley rights-of-ways through metropolitan areas and reconstruction of rail and bus mass transit systems.

Revitalization of urban mass transit systems will be the flashpoint for the revitalization of cities as the populace revolts against the 2 hour commute and return to living close to employment centers.

Exurb 7,000 square foot houses built in large-lot subdivisions will be abandoned, demolished, plowed over and the land used once again for agriculture.

Big Tommy C

Hmmm. Paranoid much?

For the record, fuel-cell vehicles are currently terrible for the environment.

cruentus

The USA will devolve into Balkan-like warring factions based on ethnic/racial lines. The most popular male child's name will be Slobodan.

1) The Southwest/California will become Nueva-Mexico.
2) The Northwest will become New China.
3) The Southeast will become New Africa.
4) The Midwest will become Red-Neck/Christian Yahoo land.
5) The Northeast, with no dominant ethnic/racial group, will be fought over for years and eventually destroyed in a nuclear holocaust.

oboeguy

Galen's predictions are scary but probably fairly accurate.

Edit: Forgot to add my own. If somehow we do get lots more bike commuters, it will suck. The infrastructure will take forever to catch-up and those of us who are used to zipping along at high speed will get stuck in what feels like bike traffic with all the no0bs going 10-12mph.

galen_52657

I live in Maryland...would that be North or Southeast********** I wanna live!

cruentus

Maryland will be part of New Africa, you will live................ if you're black.

slvoid

I'm surprised no one's brought up John Titor yet.

zaphodbeeblebro

2006 - In effort to keep the internal combustion engine a viable tool for transportation, Auto industry lobbies persuade U.S. to invade Iran (public reason: WMD's, oppressive regime, terrorist ties...see media from 2003). In effort to 'help the military mission' gas tax is imposed, tax is $.005 per gallon, proceeds go to help pay for better armor for our troops, money dissapears into Haliburton's coffers, troops receive left-over armor from first Gulf war. Dick Cheney has massive stroke, Jeb Bush and Saudi Arabian King are installed as acting board of directors at Haliburton. Every single day CNN runs a cover story about how gas pricesare setting a new Record. Bush returns from vacation briefly to introduce the new vice president excerpt from the speech: "ladies and gentlemen, now is the time for action, look around you, is someone being unamerican? have you seen osama Bin Laden lately? he's about 6'4", long beard, says stuff like 'america must die'...no...ok anyways, here's the new assistant president; Mr. Strom Thurmond...wait, sorry bout that I guess he's dead, ladies and gentlemen Tony Blair will be assuming the vice presidents job via teleconference from Europe...." he goes on to talk about the time he "kicked lance's ass" on his ranch, fails to mention he made lance ride a unicycle.
Ivan Basso wins tour, America wonders why Lance changed his name to Ivan Basso

2007 - War fails, U.S. Military is severely injured, in order to rebuild the military, governement taxes lower clases some more, cuts most public health care, and cuts all alternetive transportation funding (in other news, Toyota-Daimler-Benz Motor Company gets around import laws and manufactures a cheap internal combustion sedan in Mississippi and sells it for $2000 new. Ford and GM see their sales plummet and both file for bankruptcy in November. in the year dubbed as the "Year Jack arrived with his Beanstalk" Walmart also files for bankruptcy after waging a war with the CHinese government for the better part of 2 years. Target executives celebrate by throwing multi million dollar party for their executives...details of the party would emerge in 2008 and executives are all convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to 12 years each. Polish policeman in Milwuakee convicted of beating to death two cyclists in a fit of road rage is given 3 years probation and put on unpaid leave for 1 month. Police union appeals and leave is changed to "paid administrative leave" Red Sox break the 2-year curse of Manny and win world series. Boston is destroyed in the riot that follows, Harvard moves to New Hampshire so they can escape public scrutiny after firing all of their female as well as their black professors. Congress passes a new transportation bill that puts forth the acceptable width of bike lanes as "8 inches". Bill also bans abortion within 10 miles of a federally funded road. Eddie Merckx wins tour amid accusations that he is taking some sort of "performance enhancing drug. In reponse to these allegations Eddie rips his bicycles in half and proclaims "hulk smash!!!" he then eats Thor Hushovd. Bush still on vacation

2008 - Oil discovered in North Korea, U.S. launches a air war against N. Korea in order to secure access to the world last bastion of cheap crude oil (public reason: see 2006/2003) U.S. military destroyed once again. Still waiting on new armor from Haliburton.
Trek buys Ontario, renames it Wisconsin 2, still makes crappy mtn bikes. U.S. in effort to mitigate huge trade gap, decides best course of action is to ban all aluminium imports from east asia. Bicycle manufacturers move their production to South America, suffer huge losses due to inferior quality metals. Jeb Bush wins election with an unprecendented 100% of the popular votes in what he refers to as "the confederacy and Ohio". Democrats crying foul are deported under a new patriot act that allows U.S. to deport someone to their "ancestors" land. Ancestor's are defined as "your direct family 7 generations back". Boston is deported to Ireland and Italy. In a suprising turn of events Former president George W. Bush wins the Tour de France on a trek mtn bike. UCI governing board commit suicide, Fausto Coppi spins in his grave.

2009 - California bombed, LA, SF, SD all wiped off of map, unliveable for thousands of years. U.S. roads falling into disrepari because all U.S. funds going towards paving Florida (remember who is president) and invading Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, Panama, Columbia, Israel, Nepal (couldnt get to China), and Vietnam (hell we did it once, let's do it again!). Reasons given for massive global military action "These countries are filled with people who are unamerican, and all have legitimate ties to the Al Queda". Al Queda buys Oklahoma, invites the Taliban over for a party. They start a new political party in the U.S. called "extreme Islamic liberation party" Capture the Oklahoma house and pass laws dictating that anyone without a p*nis must be whipped three times every morning, just for the hell of it.
Tour de France suspended pending allegations that every cyclist in the peloton is more drugged up than a crack-***** beef cow.

2010 - England reclaims New England, imposes taxation without representation. New Englanders ask if they will now have to change the name of their football team from the patriots to the Tories. England replies, we already have a football team, its called Manchester United.
Massachusetts (under leadership of Duke Curt Schilling) proposes that Maine be given to the IRA in exchange for the 10th cease fire. King William consents and asks Tom Brady if he can sleep with Bridget Moynahan. Tom Brady says, "sure", Bridget says "what?" Bicycles are outlawed in the "New Confederacy" being deemed "tools of foreign subversion"

Alaska, bans cars on the roads allows only horses and bicycles, population of Alaska quadruples in 1 month. White House declares bankruptcy in June, Jeb Bush is on Vacation on the Moon. New York City converts its entire road system into a bumper car game, cabby named Nahish who speaks english is crowned champion bumper carrer by Mayor Bill Clinton. Bill plays his saxophone at the awards ceremony. Hilary Clinton, still sore from her loss in the '08 election kills Nahish and then spanks Bill on live TV.
Gas is now $15 a litre, whats left of America thinks gas prices have gone down since it used to be $20 a gallon. Hybrid cars are driven everywhere in the world except for America. Countries that refuse to support American oil International (with holdings in N. Korea, Russia, South America, Saudi Arabia, iran, Iraq, and Venezuela) are labeled "terrorist nations" and trade sanctions are imposed. Trad sanctions have no effect because America no longer exports anything.
Those who ordered Eisentraut and Vanilla Bicycles in 2005 receive their frames this year. Most popular question on Bikeforums.net? Campagnolo-Miche, Sram, or Suntour-Shimano.
I'll still be riding my Campagnolo equipped DEAN steel.

galen_52657

Dayum zaph,

Your job must be boring too.....

zaphodbeeblebro

IT security, just finished patching...its friday and servers are coming down this weekend...that means that I have 7 hrs to sit in front of my computer...

dobber

Probably much like the past, humanity continues to move forward despite all the nay-sayers and chicken-littles.

aadhils

You might be dead by then....

timmhaan

i don't expect too much visible change. well, maybe more hybrids. but, seeing as how i still see cars on the road from the 70's i highly doubt the SUVs and trucks of today are going anywhere soon.

honestly, i only see people paying more for gas and modifying their spending habits so they can still buy it. may be a few more car pools at people's work but that's about it.

skookum

Good one zaphod

I predict..

A bush will be in the white House

People will still be driving cars

top subjects on bike forums...

bike lanes, helmets, campy vs shimano, chain lube, steel vs aluminum vs titanium vs carbon...

Platy

By 2010, inflation caused by high oil prices will be seen by the Federal Reserve as a good thing because the interest on the massive national debt can be serviced with cheaper dollars.

Ganesha

1. Gas costs over $5/gal in most US cities.
2. Bicycle fatality rate remains unchanged.
3. Drunk drivers are still free to driving again and again.
4. US is still in Iraq, proving security.
5. Foxnews still offers daily reports from Aruba.

Primevci

lol i was thinking that reading threw these post but you brought him up lol

slvoid

Well I might as well put this in then hehe..

1. The US will go to war with Iraq over claims that the latter has nuclear weapons. These claims would prove to be false.
2. There will be civil unrest during or shortly following the U.S. Presidential election of 2004 that would gradually escalate into civil war in 2005.
3. The civil war as it emerges will pit rural against urban areas, as the government will be able to secure control of the cities, but not the countryside.
4. Around 2008, the population will come to realize that the previous situation in the United States will not be restored.
5. At some time during this period, there will be nuclear war between Middle Eastern powers, apparently between Israel and Islamic powers. A wavering in western support for Israel will precipitate this.
6. Korea, Taiwan, and Japan will all be conquered by China.
7. In the early 2000's, work at the CERN laboratory will lay the foundations for time travel.
8. CJD (mad-cow disease) would grow to become a very serious health issue.
9. In 2015, Russia will nuke the United States, China, and Europe. Nearly 3 billion people will die. The entire world will be damaged.
10. The genetic modification of food to create hybrid seeds will have deleterious effects. The common American diet of commercially-prepared food has serious health risks that are currently unrecognized.
11. The many-worlds interpretation (the Everett-Wheeler model) of quantum physics is correct.
12. The IBM 5100, a portable computer from the early 1970's, can read IBM code written before the use of APL and Basic. This, Titor claims, is an undocumented feature.
13. The future will judge the present harshly.

Cyclaholic

and it shows


BTW, Vanilla frames delivered by 2010? I was buying it up untill this prediction

Cyclaholic

The saddest thing that will happen it 2010 is my children asking me "daddy, why did your generation allow this to happen to the world? you knew it was coming and you could have prevented it"

I have no idea how to answer that one