Darren

...ok, not entirely bike related, but kind of sort of is...(advocacy related maybe!?) I was flipping channels the other day and saw an ad for a television show on one of the networks on the impending oil crisis but now can't find when it will air... Anyone see when it was and what channel it was coming on? Thanks!

NZLcyclist

what impending oil crisis? They just opened that damn big ass pipe didn't they?

btw I don't care, I say bring on the day when it allll runs out

Darren

Well, I *sort of* agree with you... I look forward to the decrease of traffic on the roads and the return of the smaller self supporting communities that will have to redevelop from it (one day), but not to the other things, such as increasing costs of everything else! I think it's good that a television show will air about this subject...might make people think a little more, might convert a few more bicycle commuters, etc.. nah, what am I thinking, it'll never happen in our fat lazy culture...

In any case, anyone seen the commercial I was talking about and happen to remember the time and station it was on (in the U.S., btw). Thanks!

lilHinault

Yeah they just opened up some bigg azz pipe all right, saw a write-up about it on www.urbansurvival.com it's called the Caspian thing, I call it a prime terrorism target.

I saw something about the Made For TV Special movie about the crisis of gas going to $5 a gallon, it's going to show in June sometime. I think I saw something about it on www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com but you can probably Google it.

If this all comes true, all Wally's will be able to sell as they die off is bikes!

nycm'er

There is a crazy multi show doc on PBS, I believe, called Big Oil, about oil and all the societal ills, war, pollution and environmental damage getting it to the pump.

lilHinault

OK don 't click on ANY links I give, instead, sneak up on 'em by using Google to search for, for instance, "life after the oil crash" since every time I post a link, it seems to go to some hacker kid's bedroom instead of the site I'm talking about.

mmmKay?

cyclezealot

NZ.. YOu live in a more survivable country , where life can still be community dependent...Locals have not lost their ability to perform basic functions for themselves..I suspect..Not so for the suburban/exurban US...It will not be fun...Employees can't get to work...Company profits shrink as energy costs sky rocket...I hope it will not be another 1929...and no mass transit to fill in the void.
and we were told when the oil shocks hit us 30 years ago...The oil dependency was a National security crisis..Did anyone listen...Solutions were offered, programs devised and abandoned when we were told, the oil companies would take care of us and develop the new technologies...
well, they didn't ...a 30 year lead wasted , on a national security crisis...better luck in New Zealand....well, in the movies- Australia/New Zealand were last to survive a nuclear world.......Hope you do better, than I fear we will...

Stacey

To answer your question Darren, it's called Oil Storm, showing on FX... Sunday June 5th, 8 o'clock Eastern.

https://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/orig...torm/main.html

operator

Oil crisis? Lol. If you're talking about a artificially created oil crisis then yeah.

Yoshi

Oil is finite so eventually there will be an oil "crisis" although perhaps we will be fortunate enough to have replaced oil with something either renewable or at least long lasting by then.

But we will run out of oil that is economically feasible to pump.

slagjumper

We really need some distructive technology to come along and make oil use for transportation a thing of the past. As it looks now the planets thirst for oil will double in the next 10 years. The longer we are dependant on oil the more in a hole we will go.

https://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_ec...il_prices.html
https://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/internat...leu.html#Gross

how much is a gal of gas in other contries:
https://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1108.html

Good oil stats:
https://www.iags.org/costofoil.html
see pdfs

scarry

In the SF Bay area, Channel 5 aired a segment on their 11pm news about "peak oil". They featured a prominent oil geologist who predicted the peak world production date as Thanksgiving day 2005.

JohnBrooking

Most of what I've read places the predicted peak somewhere in this decade, maybe already past, maybe not. Most also say we won't know for sure until it has already happened.

To my mind, running out of oil per se is not the issue, since it will be gradual, it is the indirect effects of rising demand coupled with decreasing supply (or at least diminishing rate of increase), which will cause economic and political instability. As with any other crisis, it will be a gradual effect, and will most negatively impact the poor and otherwise politically unrepresented. Those with connections and money will, as usual, find a way to get by. They're already jockeying for it.

dobber

That oughta be good. Is Alec Baldwinn in it?

pedex

define gradual..............

One of Bush/Cheney LLC's energy advisors has been saying for quite sometime that Ghawar is likely to die a quick death and that the Saudi's are lying about how much they have left, its already in decline, world oil production has very very little spare capacity at this time, and wont be able to keep up with increasing demand, in other words, oil production has peaked right now.Ghawar has about a 30-40% water cut right now and thats increasing, and history has shown that this method when done to the extreme means the field will crash very hard.From here on out it declines, or at best, the ROI drops drastically as the oil companies spend megabucks going after the heavier crude and hard to get to places,which they just started doing in earnest, as well as merging and deflating their overinflated reserve #'s.The age of OIL is in its end game.

Looking at world consumption increases of more than 5% annually,and production declines of that or more, from here on out, it will mean military force in order to have a steady supply.........hmm, thats already being done.

I think gasoline here in the US hits $3/gallon average by december, drops a bit briefly after that, then starts a definite climb towards some very scary numbers after that.Once the reality of the situation hits the mainstream the REAL price of oil will come into play, Im guessing $100-$150/barrel, maybe more.In a few years it could easily hit $300/barrel.

many jump to the conclusion that transportation is the hardest issue, nope, not even close........its food, for every calorie you eat, it costs 10-20calories worth of petroleum in the US

not the end of the world by any means, want to see what the end result looks like, look at Cuba, theyve dealt with it quite well, their fuel suply got cut off abruptly when the USSR fell apart

cyclezealot

what is a crime...we had every chance to be ready for this shortage...The US will get through it , but our stubborness to wean our way to alternatives and addiction to our single passenger auto and lack of alternative transportation will make the transition the most painful in the industrial world...couple that to our housing patterns.
I might look forward to the oil crisis' effects..Maybe bike lanes will become what had been a whole lane used solely by autos..?
to those who say it is manufactured...and not real....
I say it is real but manipulated.

Darren

Thanks Stacey for that info, that's the one I was looking for...much appreciated!

...and thanks everyone else for the interesting discussion!

Marge

hey if you like to read try, "Out of Gas:The End of the Age of Oil by David Goodstein.
It's a short pithy read 128 pages you can get it from your local library. At heart, Goodstein is a
Caltech professor who explains why the days of oil are done and gone. And the consequences for the
the West. Interesting read.

Darren

Hi Marge, I saw that Goodstein had a book out on the subject. That guy's great, I used to use a lot of his Mechanical Universe tapes in the college physics classes I taught, and his text on condensed matter physics is great. He's a good author and teacher! Thanks for the reminder about his new book.

lilHinault

Gas is artificially priced low in the US anyway, oil will not stop, but cheap oil will.

And yes it will be gradual, although since the "non-negotiable" American lifestyle seems to require declaring war on most of the world, we could easily end up with WWII type gas rationing. There was certainly no shortage of oil at that time, and the US had tons, but there was a war against a good portion of the other world powers on at that time, too.

I'll have to look up that Goodstein book, I've heard about Mechanical Universe and that it's great.

socalrider

I think the show may be related to an article from about a month ago called "Peak Oil"

The theory goes that the world is currently pulling oil at the maximum rate and is being consumed as fast as it comes out of the ground.. If the oil production slows and comsumption remains the same or grows slightly there will be huge jumps in oil prices..

3.00 - 4.00 per gallon would be the norm for the United States under this scenario..

Stacey

You're welcome Darren. It looks like more of the "Let's scare the crap outta the masses" hyperbole. But it looks like fun as well


Alec who?

smurfy

My prediction is that sometime in the future the blue Northeast states will split off from the rest of the USA (well maybe not COMPLETETLY, more like a nation-state-within-a-nation somewhat like Singapore or something like that) and will embrace public transportation, cycling, alternative energy, anti-sprawl etc. while the red staters from the Biblebelt will fight wars for oil on thier own and will continue to deny peak oil and global warming is happening.

The foundation for this senario is already happening since the Bush administration is closing many military bases primarily in the Northeast and is rewarding the South with more base jobs. I think there will be a massive migration of people moving to these different areas of the country much like the black migration from the South in the mid-thirties to the early seventies.

cyclezealot

Smurfy...Much of the solar power is generated/or will be- in the south and west...
from what I am told...Nevadians and Washtonians so hate Californians- they might push us out to sea....not sure about Arizonians...
I understand...California plates..Don't speed in Washington State? well, we already have lots of solar panels...
personally..If it is all true..I think it jealousy.

Primevci

hmm weird i live in oregon and there gonan close a airforce base up here... and we are a blue state also very intresting...