Cheap gas
 

Maybe this thread should be called, "cheap driving."

It's been said before. But I have to wonder seriously how long
Americans will be able to drive cheaply, as they do now.

Driving is the overwhelmingly preferred method of getting anywhere in the U.S. There are many places where any other means of getting around are impractical or almost impossible.

The old saying goes, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." Another saying, coined by Andrew Carnegie, the 19th century Scottish-American immigrant self-made millionaire (billionaire?) who made his money in railroads and steel, goes like this: "Put all your eggs in one basket, then guard that basket!" It seems like this is what America has chosen to do concerning transportation by putting all her eggs in the automobile basket.

But I'm not convinced it will last. We will have cars for a long time to come, but I think perhaps fewer and fewer people will be able to afford them. This is, of course, exactly the opposite of the idea Henry Ford had. His idea was to make the car so cheap that millions could afford to drive one, whereas before his time, only the rich drove cars made painstakingly by hand.

Anyway, if driving continues to become more expensive, and the high cost of housing close to jobs continues to climb, I'll be ready.

:)

I recently saw an analysis that showed that worldwide oil/gas production would top out about 2010-2012, then start dropping off pretty rapidly.

Further, this same analysis then went on the show worldwide production per capita, which given the exponentially expanding population, topped out about right now! However, since most of this population growth is in poor 3rd world countries, the industrialized nations will probably not see any evidence of shrinking gas supplies for the next few years at least. (Too bad IMHO).

Of course, we can argue about the data til the cows come home, but one thing is for certain. We will eventually tap out the world's supply of oil. About that, there is not debate. The only question is when.

Dave

For a shorter-term potential problem, read the cover article in the May Atlantic Monthly magazine about the living comic opera called the Saudi royal family.
We will almost certainly lose access to cheap Saudi oil in the next few years regardless of what else happens.

Well,

I just get sad that we have all but dismantled our train infrastructure.

Almost all goods move by truck now, we move ourselves by car. If there ever is a big gas shortage EVERYTHING will be more expensive.

Even if we don't drive we have to pay for the fuel cost on stuff (e.g. food medicine consumer goods etc.) that is trucked in from elsewhere.

I went to europe last year, they have the public transport DOWN there. Very impressive. Rather than head that way we keep trying to put all our eggs in the car/airplane basket.

I think someday we will wish we hadn't made all the railroads into recreational bike paths. (not that there is anything wrong with bikepaths.) By dismantling our railroad infrastructure we have been throwing away something that was bought with the money and blood of those that came before us.

On the bright side, once cars are too expensive for most everyone, the roads will be clearer for busses?

take care,

Jester

A few things to remember: fuel is taxed at a much lower rate per unit in the US then Europe and the tax is mandated to be for road building and repair only. Fuel is really no more expensive in Europe, just taxed heavily.

I've said this before; Americans do not know the true cost of their fuel. All they see is the pump price but have no idea how much is spent on the military to secure oil sources and routes of transport, that is a subject not considered or discussed. Perhaps Europe's fuel price reflects a more realistic cost. Kinda like people think the cost of their transportation is in fuel consumption only, never mind depreciation, insurance, financing, maintainence, licensing and parking. And then you have people who think the gas tax pays for roads......

The cost of driving is much more than the cost of fuel and a car.

If bicycle were used as the transportation, it would reduce the ilness absence. Economy loses billions and billions due to the illness absence. Besides strong enrgetic people can produce better goods.

Fuel can and should be taxed to build infrastracture for mass cycling: trails that lead to offices, parking lots for bikes, office showers, etc.

It seems to me that the car exhaust damages environment much more than tobacco smoke. So why can the pack of cigarettes be taxed up to 5 unit of currency and one gallon of gas can not cost 5 units of currency?

Funny coincidence (?), long ago I saw a TV special about the old Aztec calendars and how they're supposed to be sort of an almanac to the past and future...and they predicted the end of an age around 2011. Maybe it's the end of the Petroleum age?

Although they may have dismantled the railroad system, they have made apoint of keeping the right-of-way, and it's likely that the rails will be rebuilt at some point, perhaps in a more modern form. In which case, removing the antiquated rails is a good head start.

In the U.S., gasoline taxes cover only about 1/3 of the cost of building and maintaining roads. An immediate trebling of the gasoline tax would therefore not seem unreasonable.

A couple of points here:

1. Cheap subsidised fuel isn't going to go away any time soon. Most people simply do not have the basic intelligence to think about 50 minutes into the future, never mind 50 years. And most people are happy to become communists when it suits them.

2. More expensive fuel would not necessarily increase cycling or even reduce driving. My honest opinion is that most people would quite happily sell their own children into slavery if it meant they could put fuel in their car for another week.

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1. Cheap subsidised fuel isn't going to go away any time soon. Most people simply do not have the basic intelligence to think about 50 minutes into the future, never mind 50 years. And most people are happy to become communists when it suits them.

Especially Polticiansl

Watching Blair and Straw on a tv prog`e. They are still lying to us about W of M D...
When will they come clean. It was all about freeing up the oil in Iraq...

As someone posted, several of the oil corporations are predicting oil peaking in 10/15 years time with a fall off on production at 3% a year after this.... So fuel prices can only eventually go one way to conserve stocks.

Bear in mind that most of the people in charge of the oil companies and in various governments are at least 50 years old. I'm not so sure the assumption that they are actually interested in conserving stocks is an overly valid one.

Think about it, the oil companies don't care. Whatever price they charge is (to an extent) absorbed by government subsidies. They don't need to conserve anything. By the time the oil runs out, they'll have enough dough to simply buy into some other industry.

The governments? Well, anyone who scraps the fuel subsidies now is dead meat at the next election anyway. As I said before, subsidised fuel is here to stay.

Roadbed and ties are at least as much of the expense of railroad right-of-way construction as are the actual rail. In most cases the rail removed from a right of way is installed in a lower class of track. The current track and road system is quite modern, even though it may appear to the uninitiated not to be much different from its older predecessors. Further, one of the most significant recent developments is the Gage Restraint Measurement System, which measures actual defletion of the rails under load, enabling railroads to be muh more effective in their tie replacement programs. Technology is not always about having something new, sometimes it is about doing something new with existing infrastructure.

Another issue is using the existing infrastructure more efficiently. The railroads, through improved operating practices and through mergers which reduce redundancy, have made the rail network amazingly efficient. We move as much freight in a day in this country as Europe does in a year. The more dismal news is that while the amount of freight carried by railroads continues to grow each year, it is not growing as fast as the amount of freight moved by motor carriers, so that now only approximately 5% of the surface freight in the US is moved by rail.

I think I'm getting an education.

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