CB HI

So now we are back to the old claim that only those that live in a city can discuss the LAB (based in Washington DC by the way) claims. Especially claims they try to use nation wide.

CB HI

So you like being the dull axe in the shed.

mikeybikes

Who appointed you moderator of discussion? A debate on the flaws of statistics is a healthy debate.

RobertHurst

Well, that's just not true. Lawful, visible and predictable cyclists "following best practices" are overlooked all the time by drivers, and they get hit all the time. It is not rare in absolute terms or in relative terms compared to other types of car-bike crashes.


A more realistic scenario is encountering say five or six cyclists on a trip instead of three or four. The extra two cyclists make the driver significantly more aware? Yes, according to S. i. N. theory.

Captain Blight

Debate is fine. Academic discussion over which statistical method produces better prediction/interpretation of real-world results is fine. Ignoring intel from the men at the coal-face is just stupid. Plus, internet sissyfighting gets no one anywhere.

Who appointed me moderator? I did. Somebody has to step up and be Hank Hill.

CB, I would like that to be the last time you call me names. That's kinda uncalled-for.

unterhausen

My guess is that there are two factors. If a motorist is used to passing at least one cyclist on a given trip, they get used to doing it and not panic so much when they see a cyclist. If they see many cyclists, they will be a lot more likely to expect to see a cyclist. Finally, if they see even more cyclists than that, they realize that it's a normal mode of travel and nothing to get obnoxious about.

Even though there are a fair number of cyclists around here, I make plenty of trips by car when I don't see even one.

I-Like-To-Bike

How are "predictable cyclists following best practices" defined for crash reporting statistics? What are the personality or cycling characteristics/metrics that allows predictable cyclists following best practices to be distinguished from any other cyclist involved in an accident? Is it they happened to be cycling in accordance with the law at the moment of the accident or something else? Do cyclists who cycle (or not cycle) in available bike lanes qualify for this description?

Never knew that predictable cyclists following best practices (by any definition) was ever a recordable entry in any accident report or credible statistical study.

CB HI

You seriously call that name calling. Your total failure to recognize a little joke is uncalled-for.

But now that ILTB is back, you will get to see real name calling and insults.

Bekologist

Robert,

I am not trying to ascribe too much worth to the Jacobsean effect, the reported, replicated increase in cyclists counts and nearly flat collision rates in cities that have seen faint booms in ridership in the last five years or so.

Transportation engineering allows traffic counts to be indexed to collision rates. There are widespread and irrefutable increases in the numbers of cyclists - commuter counts, american community survey numbers, and widespread anecdotal reports all indicate a boom in cycling in a number of american cities. A number of these cities are also reporting nearly flat reported numbers of collisions and crashes concurrent with these recorded increases in the numbers of cyclists.

I believe this is, bluntly, the result of more motorists becoming more accustomed to seeing more cyclists more frequently and interacting to a greater level of consideration and safety around bicycle traffic.

Calling it 'safety in numbers' may do this reported and repeated phenomenon a disservice, but the trend is clear - more cyclists, about the same number or even decreasing numbers of crashes. Minneapolis recorded a 20 percent decline in serious reported crashes as ridership boomed.

This trend isn't likely a result of the topology of riders getting more road savvy, or less kids cycling. New York rider counts swelled from 100,000 to 180,000 in just 4 years - there's going to be plenty of ninja, salmoning, drunken and relatively inexperienced cycling going on with that level of uptake in NYC. That's a huge sway in ridership that's not related to less kids bicycling. 90 percent of the riders in US communities are considered by the FHWA to be basic or beginner cyclists.

I understand your belief that the data is too murky to contribute anything useful, but the trend is clear in city after city keeping track - there's more people biking, and the crash rates aren't going up.

CB HI

Now we are back to Bek repeating himself without offering a complete validated study.
Just more of Bek's "I believe".

Bekologist

the studies are there, my friend.

That's what the recent news update at the League of American Bicyclists was all about - another city - Minneapolis, wasn't it? reporting increased numbers of cyclists concurrent with nearly flat crash rates - a decline in the indexed crash rate for bicyclists in a number of cities - over the last few years of recorded commuter counts.

crhilton

RobertHurst,

Eventually there are too few kids left riding, at the start, for them to make much impact on the statistics either way. While commuting cyclists went up by 80% did the kids slow down their riding enough to offset that?

Besides, the most obvious and provable thing is that this coincides with Lance's post cancer success. I think we should all send him a nice thank you and tell congress that we don't mind if he doped, cause the hillbillies remember we're people now that he "showed up d'em der frenchies."


On a more serious note. The League really likes commuters, but I'm guessing MN has a more impressive rise in cyclists involved in the sport of it. Somebody go find out what the changes are in USAC licenses in the area...

CB HI

Once again, so YOU (Bek) say without providing any that meet any type of scientific methodology.

Just more of 'but the article says so'.

AlmostTrick

Ok, but much less so than kids, drunks, ninjas and inexperienced riders.

AlmostTrick

Which as we all know can be quite dangerous. Well, at least until we somehow figure out a way to increase the number of axe grinders anyway.

Bekologist

the more axe grinders, the more people will know they're there, man. better watch out.

Occam's razor.

CB HI

Sounds like a great idea for a safety article.

Bekologist

or a study.

Cities could compile annual counts of axe grinders, and compare them to the numbers of axe accidents.

RobertHurst

I agree that's kind of how it works. The question is to what degree does this show up in the stats, compared to other things which are probably a lot more important to overall accident rates.

RobertHurst

It's not. It's one of those things that means something different for every individual. There is no 'best practice' that will come close to eliminating looked-but-failed-to-see errors, as AlmostTrick claimed.

Bekologist

yeah, that's it.....factors like safer intersection interactions as a result of motorists being more accustomed to more bicycle traffic.

what degree does this show up in the stats- let's see......

yep, looks like there's more cycling going on in minneapolis, and less crashes. a declining trend in the bicyclist crash rate, indexed to ridership.

It's arguable that this could be a result of the greater normalization of cycling as a road activity. Ever growing numbers of cyclists lending itself to observable, positive safety trends from a 'critical mass' of bicyclists.

Much less convincing is the hypothesis of a corn-fed super race of intuitively competent Minnesotan bike commuters springing out of the raw cloth of erstwhile suburban prairie schooner captains.

earth2pete

i think this is true. in fact, i've discovered that by riding my bike on the same commute route everyday, the motorists who also ride my route at that time learn to expect me and how to maneuver around me more easily.

it's the ones who have no experience with cyclists that like to think that 'get on the sidewalk' is actually going to change the way i ride.

billdsd

I've been wondering about this. For the last three years I've been riding the same route and I seem to be getting less harassment than I used to. It's still non-zero, but less than it was a couple of years ago. One street, India St, used to be very bad and now it's actually pretty rare for me to get harassed there. I recently went almost 3 months without harassment there. It used to be pretty much every week. I suppose it's possible that the people who regularly drive there when I ride there have gotten used to seeing me there.

earth2pete

interesting, billdsd. if true, it would make us more hesitant to engage in middle-finger pointing at motorists, which would be counterproductive. not that i'm innocent you understand...

I-Like-To-Bike

AlmostTrick, What exactly are those "best practices", besides cycling legally? And who measured the so-called "crash rate" of those unidentified cyclists who allegedly use these "practices"?

BTW what is the significance of any so-called "crash rate " statistics/metrics that does not take into account the various severity level of the injuries (if any) that are the product of the "crashes."