B. Carfree

As a general rule, I don't place much weight in the values given by the American Community Survey. However, I do think it is a good tool to measure trends in the use of bicycles in a fixed area, particularly for commuting purposes. That said, I have recently been to a public forum where the local city staff referred to our "increase" in the use of bikes for commuting to 7%. This was followed by an email referring me to a survey on bike parking needs/habits that contained the following gem:
So, what's my problem here? The claim of an increase in the use of bikes is contradicted by the ACS data. Here is the percentage of bicycle commuting according to the ACS:

2008: Eugene-8.0%, Eugene/Springfield Metro-3.9%
2009: Eugene-10.8%, Eugene/Springfield Metro-5.6%
2010: Eugene-8.3%, Eugene/Springfield Metro-5.6%
2011: Eugene-7.3%, Eugene/Springfield Metro-4.0%

So, we have a metropolitan area that saw its use of bicycles for commuting purposes peak during the worst of the Lesser Depression in 2009 at 5.6%, with the city proper peaking at 10.8%. This has been followed by a dramatic drop-off in cycling to 4.0% and 7.3% respectively.

What's with public officials making claims of new all-time highs? When one out of every three bike commuters from three years ago is now in a car one hardly has a new high. I think these folks, most of whom don't ride, are so used to spouting propaganda that they just refuse to deal with the fact that we are going backwards while the rest of the nation is going forwards (50% increase nationally from 2005-11).

Are these false claims of success happening everywhere, or is it an Oregon thing?

Myosmith

A recent survey showed that 87.4% of all statistics are made up on the spot to support the agenda of the speaker

Really though, statistics are very malleable things. The results of a survey are influenced by many factors including the structure of the questions, the "cross-section" of the public surveyed, the percentage of respondents, the interpretation of the data, etc. Sometimes variations in the results are because of legitimate variances in the focus of the surveys, sometimes because of poor structure/analysis, and sometimes because of intentional manipulation to support an agenda.

The difference here could be as simple as the definition of "commuter" in the question. If Survey A asked "Have you ever used a bicycle to commute to work, school, or commerce?" and Survey B asked "Do you commute to work by bicycle an average of three or more times a week?" the results are going to be different. Statistics are useless without context.

Another problem with surveys is the fallacy of the "random" cross section. There is no such thing as even the choice of distribution media will change the population of respondents. For example, phone surveys are becoming increasingly biased toward older populations as many only include fixed location residential phone numbers. The younger, more mobile, generation is increasingly opting against the traditional home phone in favor of cell phones, therefore if your "random" survey uses only residential land lines, you will miss that segment of the population. Likewise, time of day makes a difference. If the phone survey is conducted between the hours of 9 am and 5 pm and includes only residential numbers, most of your working commuters and students will be at work or school, not at home, and will not be available to respond. Your cross section will be biased toward the non-commuters who work at home, the retired and the unemployed.

Surveys by mail have similar problems. People are much more likely to respond if they have strong opinions for or against the subject matter. The majority of people in the middle will simply not respond. I hang up on a half dozen phone surveys and trash at least that many mail surveys every week.

So don't put too much stock in surveys, or get wound up about "false" claims based on varying collection and interpretation methods. It's just the nature of statistical data in an imperfect world.

rydabent

myosmith +1

rxmoore

What's the margin of error for this survey? The differences are probably statistically insignificant.

turbo1889

This Just In !!! - News Flash !!! - Breaking News !!!

EXTRA !!! - EXTRA !!!

= Politicians all lie no matter where they are from or what their political positions. More often then not in the form of half truths because they are easier to get the public to swallow. (Yes, I am being sarcastic as all h#ll)

irwin7638

Just about anybody relying on statistics will be glad to point out that anything contradicting their point of view was the result of a poorly executed study based on a flawed premise examining the wrong demographic.
Oh yeah...politicians lie also.

Marc

Kactus

The trouble is you give percentage of people riding, not actual numbers riding. It is very possible for numbers of commuting cyclists to increase while the percentage decreases.

The time frame showing the highest percentage of commuting cyclists was during the deepest point of the recession with the highest unemployment. I would hazard to guess that more government employees, professionals, professors, etc. bike to work while blue-collar workers tend to drive. Blue-collar jobs (construction, etc.) had a higher percentage of lay-offs than professionals. This could explain the percentage variation.

howsteepisit

I think it's more a case of the city staff lying to support their point of view than mis-application of statistics. Have you asked the writer of the email to clarify? As a Eugene resident i'd like to know

KonAaron Snake 

Or the average US voter is naive and ignorant, incapable of understanding complex issues and too stupid to know what they don't know. Politicians know this and their job is to tell people what they want to hear. We are a representative democracy, politicians DO respond to their constituents and our real problem is that people want to blame others and be told it's all the 1%'s fault, or the welfare mothers, etc.

We have the leaders that we elect and deserve.

buffalowings

Why is the world flat, why is eminem pissed, why is my dog still chubby, why do politicians lie..these are questions we may never know the answer to.

KonAaron Snake 

I have a better question:

Why do people in a representative democracy, the wealthiest and most successful society in history, continually whine ineffectually and make silly generalizations about complex issues?

RobertHurst

One thing's certain -- Eugene has one of the highest rates of bike commuting in the U.S. (if not the highest). For that the city deserves a lot of praise.

That said, I think you are correct to look more closely at claims that get tossed out by city PR depts. and planners. Too often the planner/bicycle coordinator/what-have-you in a city seems to feel a certain desperation to justify their salary/existence, and plays fast and loose with the facts toward that end. It's fair to ask them -- why has cycling participation appeared to decline for certain years in your city/cities while efforts to increase ridership have continued without pause? COULD IT BE that increasing ridership involves many factors and the effort of city planners and officials is only one? Hmmm...

B. Carfree

Yes, I did ask her to explain the difference between the numbers she CLAIMS to have gotten from the ACS and the actual values on the U.S. Census website. I didn't send the email to her until Friday, so I'll wait until Tuesday to follow up. I will post any response she makes.

As a side note to a fellow resident of Eugene, I was quite disappointed with the nature of her survey. It only allows participants to put an icon at the locations where they currently park their bike and where they would like to see more bike parking. I'm much more concerned with the quality of the bike parking. For instance, there is a world of difference between covered, secure (or at least visible from the store window) parking and some crappy rack out back. I suppose the car-bound staff of LTD haven't noticed we get a few days of rain hereabouts and we are annoying-theft central, especially now that we don't have a functioning jail.

B. Carfree

Well, yes and no. We're currently behind such cities as Berkeley, CA (where I grew up). Also, considering the fact that the entire county comes into Eugene on a daily basis (okay, slightly less, but we get many motorists commuting from neighboring counties as well) and those suburbanites all come by car. That effectively quadruples our population, so our actual percentage of cyclists is less than 2%. I also have my doubts about the honesty of the people who answer the ACS when it comes their way. I would expect a lot of the people hereabouts to claim to have ridden on trips they drove on because, "Well, if it wasn't raining, then I would have ridden my bike." I ride all over this city and the surrounding suburbs every day. If we even have 0.5% of our transportation being met by bicycle, then they must be riding in invisibility cloaks. Like I said in the OP, I think the ACS is much better for looking at trends within a region than for comparing values between regions.

I-Like-To-Bike

I agree with you about the importance of considering security and visibility of bike parking.

Providing bike parking "cover" for protection from rain should not be much of a commuting concern. Bikes, like cars, don't melt in the rain. And if a cyclist is so concerned about his bike getting wet, he won't ride in the rain either, so why should anyone else worry about this non issue?

delcrossv

You like having a wet butt?

I-Like-To-Bike

Whaa, Whaa! Put a plastic bag on the saddle when parking. Does the city have to provide that too?

I suppose covered parking should be provided for convertibles so entitled owners won't have to put the top up when parking.

myrridin

No covered parking for convertibles would be a waste of money since the owners of convertibles are evil operators of steel cages who obviously torture puppies. As opposed to cyclists who are warm, fuzzy, green, and care for the environment...

gcottay

The staffer certainly seems to have promulgated inaccurate data but there is no evidence presented of intent to deceive. The OP does himself and others a disservice by jumping to this conclusion.

B. Carfree

Perhaps, but I would like to know how she came to use a number from the ACS that doesn't exist for the year she referenced and why she wants to cite the 2009 survey when 2010 and 2011 are available. Had she referenced Eugene's 10.8% bike commute number from 2009 and cited it as a new peak, then the only question is why she ignored more recent data that is on the same site. That could be an honest, if strange, mistake. It is also possible she just did a cut-and-paste type of mistake where everyone in the Kool-Aid crowd assumes the rate of cycling is ever-increasing and someone just put the newest number in without noting its relationship to past years and she forgot to change the reference year. If that is the case, then she is not being willfully deceitful, she is just being incompetent and showing her bias.

By the way, the last time I was intimately involved with such an error, it involved a biomedical researcher from the University of California, San Diego. He published a paper that had a table with values identical to a prior paper (different experiments). When confronted regarding this mistake, which was assumed to be a simple organizational error, he reacted so strangely that his dean began to investigate. Long story short, the U.C. system found that he had faked most of his career and recommended a substantial change in the way faculty were evaluated. (Sadly, the recommendations weren't followed.) So, maybe I am a little quick to assume this is more than just someone being lazy or incompetent because of my own past experiences. Let's see how she responds to my request for an explanation.

B. Carfree

They do! We have more covered parking for cars in our downtown area provided by the city than current demand. These parking structures are well-patrolled by security guards provided at city expense and even have city-funded art-work in them. I wonder if the bike parking they put in will have some sort of art work, like maybe some music from the Soggy Bottom Boys?

irwin7638

You guys are a little behind the times. Here in Kalamazoo (yes it exists)

we have bike parking built into the city parking garages, as well as

several bike lockers available for rent.
Now we are working on

public repair stations.
Have a nice day!

Marc

howsteepisit

For me, a much more desirable parking solution to covered is secure. Having to carry a cable thick enough to use as cargo tie-down on a ocean going vessel is annoying. As b carfree noted, a post behind a building is not a decent parking solution.