Two Per Cent of US Road Deaths Are Cyclists
02-23-14, 05:02 PM
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I have no idea how to think about this. On the one hand, 2% is a small number, but we don't know if it reflects low exposure or low risk. OTOH with increased participation it's likely that the percentage will rise, especially as auto driver and passenger safety devices (ie. airbags) improve. So more deathe might be a positive indicator of more participation which would be a good thing. (sort of).
Ideally, we'd all like to see greater numbers of cyclist miles, and at the same time, fewer injuries and deaths, but we'll also like to win the powerball lottery, neither of which is likely.
Ideally, we'd all like to see greater numbers of cyclist miles, and at the same time, fewer injuries and deaths, but we'll also like to win the powerball lottery, neither of which is likely.
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02-23-14, 06:31 PM
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with 67% killed in non-intersection road accidents.
And then there is this...
“a recent Federal Highway Administration study found that 70 percent of bicycle injury events in emergency rooms did not involve a motor vehicle and 31 percent of bicyclists were injured in non-roadway locations."
But still, it all comes down to this...
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) “estimates that about 112,000 deaths are associated with obesity each year in the United States.” and even shows a cyclist on the cover of their 2011 PDF document: Obesity - Halting the epidemic by making health easier .
It is better to ride a bike for your long term well being, than not to.
It is better to ride a bike for your long term well being, than not to.
02-23-14, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Wait a minute... I thought intersections were the big problem...
And then there is this...
Sounds like off roading is a bit tougher on the cyclist than some may think. (personally, just about every time I go off road on my mountain bike, I take a tumble somewhere.)
But still, it all comes down to this...
Well golly, if the CDC features cycling on their front cover and cycling is such a good thing, seems to me the government ought to be promoting cycling a whole lot more... but I suppose that's just anti-motoring thinking, eh.
And then there is this...
Sounds like off roading is a bit tougher on the cyclist than some may think. (personally, just about every time I go off road on my mountain bike, I take a tumble somewhere.)
But still, it all comes down to this...
Well golly, if the CDC features cycling on their front cover and cycling is such a good thing, seems to me the government ought to be promoting cycling a whole lot more... but I suppose that's just anti-motoring thinking, eh.
02-23-14, 08:41 PM
#6
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Now 2% may seem low... But really? I don't know the "actual" numbers but suspect that there is more than millions of miles "driven" annually as compared to "ridden" annually by MILLIONS more PEOPLE so 2% may actually be quite high compared to use... JMO
02-24-14, 10:56 AM
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Considering the number of cyclists vs the number of motorists and cycling miles vs driving miles, 2% seems huge to me, or in other words, cycling is more deadly than driving, which isn't at all surprising to me.
02-24-14, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Looigi
Considering the number of cyclists vs the number of motorists and cycling miles vs driving miles, 2% seems huge to me, or in other words, cycling is more deadly than driving, which isn't at all surprising to me.
His comments on cyclist safety can be viewed at this URL: https://www.phred.org/~alex/kenkifer/...alth/risks.htm
Below he explains the danger difference when one examines travel miles by bike or car.
Now personally I find this very important as when I bike commute I am substituting car miles with bike miles directly... as it still takes the same distance for me to get to the office... in fact it is actually further for me to bike than to drive, due to the automobile-centric nature of our American cities.
So based on the below distance information... if I bike the same miles as I would drive, it is 2.4 times more dangerous for me to travel by bike. And oddly, since I have to bike further than I would have to drive, my exposure to this danger also increases.
Even though calculations based on exposure make more sense, as I have just explained, many vastly prefer statistics based on miles. However, data based on miles creates a bias. Consider a comparison between travel by jet with travel by car. Since the jet is 20 times faster, a comparison based on miles makes the jet look 20 times safer. Of course, if we are assuming the same distance will be covered, comparison by miles is quite fair, but bicycles and cars do not travel the same distance, as I just pointed out. Even a car-free cyclist is going to ride far below the 11,600 miles of the average motor vehicle.
Fatalities Per Mile
Motor Vehicle Travel....................Bicycle Travel
42,000 killed..............................813 killed
2.56 trillion miles.......................21 billion miles
0.016 fatalities per million mile....0.039 fatalities per million miles
Data from Traffic Safety Facts 1997 and The Environmental Benefits of Cycling and Walking
Thus, while the risk of a fatal injury per mile is nearly 2˝ times greater for the cyclist, since cyclists travel shorter distances, the total risk is going to be less. Using these figures and 12,000 miles per year, there is a chance of 1/69 of being killed in or of killing someone else with a motor vehicle during a lifetime; for the occupants alone, the risk is 1/83. The lifetime risk for riding a bicycle will be given below.
Whichever set of figures we use, we discover a very low danger from cycling. Let's say the a cyclist rides 250 hours per year, say 3,000 miles, somewhat higher than the amount for a regular cyclist. And we'll say that this person rides 60 out of the normal 75 years of life, or 15,000 hours and 180,000 miles total. Using the Failure Associates figures, this person is going to have to have a 1/256 chance of getting killed while cycling during his lifetime.
Fatalities Per Mile
Motor Vehicle Travel....................Bicycle Travel
42,000 killed..............................813 killed
2.56 trillion miles.......................21 billion miles
0.016 fatalities per million mile....0.039 fatalities per million miles
Data from Traffic Safety Facts 1997 and The Environmental Benefits of Cycling and Walking
Thus, while the risk of a fatal injury per mile is nearly 2˝ times greater for the cyclist, since cyclists travel shorter distances, the total risk is going to be less. Using these figures and 12,000 miles per year, there is a chance of 1/69 of being killed in or of killing someone else with a motor vehicle during a lifetime; for the occupants alone, the risk is 1/83. The lifetime risk for riding a bicycle will be given below.
Whichever set of figures we use, we discover a very low danger from cycling. Let's say the a cyclist rides 250 hours per year, say 3,000 miles, somewhat higher than the amount for a regular cyclist. And we'll say that this person rides 60 out of the normal 75 years of life, or 15,000 hours and 180,000 miles total. Using the Failure Associates figures, this person is going to have to have a 1/256 chance of getting killed while cycling during his lifetime.
Now granted, by cycling, I do then exercise, so my general health is going to be better if I bike vice drive... but that health factor does not dismiss the danger of exposure to automobile traffic.
Last edited by genec; 02-24-14 at 01:57 PM.
02-24-14, 03:31 PM
#10
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What do you think of this guy's reasoning?
https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/...ransportation/
When I bike commute, I'm replacing about a hundred miles of driving (usually motorcycle!) with about 20 miles of bicycling and 80 miles of bus riding.
https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/...ransportation/
When I bike commute, I'm replacing about a hundred miles of driving (usually motorcycle!) with about 20 miles of bicycling and 80 miles of bus riding.
Last edited by enigmaT120; 02-24-14 at 03:32 PM. Reason: adding
02-24-14, 03:44 PM
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The math they used is just a tad fuzzy isn't it. Children are a fractional part of automobile deaths (since kids don't drive).... yet I thought kids make up nearly half of all bicycle deaths. And... if children are discounted from the drinking cycling numbers.... alcohol impaired cycling deaths approach 50 percent (instead of 24%). And... if alcohol impaired motorist are included in the stats........ it becomes abundantly apparent where the cycling death risks really are.
02-24-14, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Notice the part I highlighted in red above... The assumption is that cyclists are going to travel fewer miles by bike than by car... but again, if you are replacing commuting miles by bike that you would travel in a car, that assumption is false... and in my personal situation, I have to go further by bike than by car to reach many of the destinations to which I normally travel. (that may also be the situation for others... as again our highway and road system is designed for the automobile, and sometimes to get there by bike, you have to detour around things like freeways)
That is, the risk that is characteristic of you as an individual might be very different than the risk that is characteristic of a population.
It seems that quite a large fraction of cyclists killed were riding at night without lights. Many of them were been drunk too.
If you ride with lights at night, or only ride during daylight, and don't ride drunk, your risk is likely to be much lower than the average.
02-24-14, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter
Children are a fractional part of automobile deaths (since kids don't drive).... yet I thought kids make up nearly half of all bicycle deaths. And... if children are discounted from the drinking cycling numbers.... alcohol impaired cycling deaths approach 50 percent (instead of 24%).
02-24-14, 04:19 PM
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I guess they should build bikes with roll bars, air bags, and seat belts.
02-24-14, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by njkayaker
The numbers in the link are deaths reported as "traffic fatalities". It isn't all cyclist deaths (it doesn't include any deaths due to mountain biking on trails).
It would seem the that the best way for a cyclist to increase his (there is a sexual component in the numbers) chances for a fatal ride would be to drink in public (like a bar) till closing time. Then... fight the traffic with a like-minded crowd of motorist. Other stats I've seen would suggest that not wearing a helmet would help increase the risk levels.
Of course... it might seem reasonable to assume that NOT participating in the riskiest behavior might reduce the general risk. But that doesn't mean it would reduce individual risk.
02-24-14, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by genec
Now granted, by cycling, I do then exercise, so my general health is going to be better if I bike vice drive... but that health factor does not dismiss the danger of exposure to automobile traffic.
02-24-14, 05:34 PM
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While there' something to be gleaned in statistical data form a public policy point of view, there's little to be gained from an individual POV. Yes, good data might make some specific risky conduct show out, but there's usually not good enough baseline data to make serious inferences for an individual.
The thing to remember is that statistics aren't destiny. Once can make their own destiny to a large extent through choices, and managing factors within control. For example drunk driving plays a large role in highway death rates (drivers, passengers & 3rd parties) so one simple adjustment, might be to cut to a minimum the time spent on roads late Friday and Saturday night when drunk driving is most common. That one action alone creates a large shift in the odds of highway death.
Broad based statistical data assumes all players are equal and share the same odds. That's not true in the real world, where accidents and injuries associated with them are not at all evenly distributed. Some people have greatly more than the average number of incidents, pushing up the numbers, and the rest have less than the average. Some, who are more than normally careful have far less than the average number of accidents or injuries.
So look at the breakdown, and if you're not a child, and aren't out weekend nights, things suddenly seem much safer.
The thing to remember is that statistics aren't destiny. Once can make their own destiny to a large extent through choices, and managing factors within control. For example drunk driving plays a large role in highway death rates (drivers, passengers & 3rd parties) so one simple adjustment, might be to cut to a minimum the time spent on roads late Friday and Saturday night when drunk driving is most common. That one action alone creates a large shift in the odds of highway death.
Broad based statistical data assumes all players are equal and share the same odds. That's not true in the real world, where accidents and injuries associated with them are not at all evenly distributed. Some people have greatly more than the average number of incidents, pushing up the numbers, and the rest have less than the average. Some, who are more than normally careful have far less than the average number of accidents or injuries.
So look at the breakdown, and if you're not a child, and aren't out weekend nights, things suddenly seem much safer.
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WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
02-24-14, 05:44 PM
#18
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It seems to me that there is less than 1% of the population riding as compared to people driving or traveling in cars... It also seems to me that there is less than 1% of milage done by riding as compared to the milage done driving in cars... So, 2% of deaths seems way higher (more dangerous 2X more dangerous?) riding than driving... JMO 
02-24-14, 06:02 PM
#19
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
It seems to me that there is less than 1% of the population riding as compared to people driving or traveling in cars... It also seems to me that there is less than 1% of milage done by riding as compared to the milage done driving in cars... So, 2% of deaths seems way higher (more dangerous 2X more dangerous?) riding than driving... JMO
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02-24-14, 06:09 PM
#20
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Originally Posted by Darth Lefty
2x a very small chance is still a very small chance. Millions of people die in this country every year, about 40,000 of them in cars, less than 1000 on bicycles.
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02-24-14, 06:15 PM
#21
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
It seems to me that there is less than 1% of the population riding as compared to people driving or traveling in cars... It also seems to me that there is less than 1% of milage done by riding as compared to the milage done driving in cars... So, 2% of deaths seems way higher (more dangerous 2X more dangerous?) riding than driving... JMO
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FB
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“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
02-24-14, 06:24 PM
#22
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Originally Posted by FBinNY
Forgeting the numbers for the moment, compare riding exposed on 2 wheels, to driving in a 4 wheeled steel crash cage with airbags. That said, take children out of the numbers and cycling does better than I would have expected.
02-24-14, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
Yes I agree with you, statistics are general and don't apply equally to everyone. BUT, in general my point is that riding is not necessarily safer than driving...
It doesn't seem (by rough estimations) that the risks are that different (it doesn't seem likely that there's a 10 fold difference in risk). (See genec's post at 9 above).
If the risks are comparable, would you rather be riding or driving?
Last edited by njkayaker; 02-24-14 at 06:37 PM.
02-24-14, 06:38 PM
#24
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Originally Posted by njkayaker
It would be very difficult to determine that cycling was more or less safe than driving on a per-hour basis. It doesn't seem (by rough estimations) that the risks are that different (it doesn't seem likely that there's a 10 fold difference in risk).
Would you rather be riding or driving?
Would you rather be riding or driving?
02-24-14, 06:49 PM
#25
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Originally Posted by 350htrr
Yes I agree with you, statistics are general and don't apply equally to everyone. BUT, in general my point is that riding is not necessarily safer than driving...
But that has nothing to do with anything. I do many things less safe than driving, and folks drive all over the country despite statistical evidence that flying is safer (deaths per 100,000 miles). I personally don't rank cycling as dangerous, and have in good faith promoted cycling to friends and acquaintances as a safe activity.
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“Never argue with an idiot. He will only bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.”, George Carlin
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
“Never argue with an idiot. He will only bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.”, George Carlin
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
