Folsomjack

I have used this in the past and guessed at a time/value update but I don't know how accurate that would be. My 1970 Fiorelli/Coppi shows up at $600 with full NR then, but since there are fewer available as time passes and with inflation, what works as an adjustment? I guess add 5% per year. What do you think.

ridelikeaturtle

I'm thinking using ended eBay auctions' selling prices on a similar (or the same) bike as a guide. To me this indicates what someone is willing to pay for it, with the understanding that might be very far away from what it's actually worth, which can be a more subjective measure.

This also varies a lot by geography too. There are quite a lot of variables that can be considered in your formula.

wrk101

I don't think you can add a set amount. Some bikes have gone up a lot, some haven't gone up, some have gone down. Not sure how accurate his original data was anyway.

I do my own analysis of value. My local market I know well, prices are soft. The more desirable the bike, the more I am forced to go ebay, or accept a small fraction price wise to get the convenience of local sale. In my market, almost anything vintage wise for $300 or more does not sell. I've bought some pretty desirable bikes at or above that price level.

Charliekeet

The correct answer to this question should be that there is no appreciable increase in values since real wages have remained flat since that time.
/kidding-notkidding

bargainguy

Most of the bikes I refurb and sell are between $100 and $200. In my market, anything over $300 can be a tough sell. I think the reasoning is that for used bikes over $300, people think they can get a new one that will outperform an older one, even though a new $300 entry level bike is spec'd with really low-rent parts and a heavy frame. But if the perception is that a $300 new bike is a better deal than used, then that's the perception you have to deal with.

The closer you get to a highly urban area, the more useful a bike becomes, and so prices increase. Same for college towns, bikes are more useful, so prices increase. The farther you get from urban areas and college towns, the lower bike prices get.

T-Mar

That $600 price was a guideline for clean bicycles in original condition, Yours has been powder coated, has incomplete decals and is a frankenbike build. Those are all big deductions and the guideline is out the window.

Inflation adjusters suggest an ~50% increase in the last 20 years. However, in my experience, the used bicycle market has not reflected this rate, except for high end, completely original and excellent condition models.

big chainring 

I'll be Mr. Doom and Gloom. Not a high demand for vintage bikes. Economy sucks, less disopable income. The geezers that remember these bikes and have an interest and knowledge base are ageing and expiring. Unload your bikes NOW!

Folsomjack

I don't agree, my house has gone up a grand a month over that period of time and I just sold my 2008 Dodge 1500 for 1150 less than I paid for it in 2008 because the exact same new one has doubled.

Folsomjack

Frankenbike??? A $300 upgrade to 700C wheels with the NR hubs by Wheelsmith and the original NR groupo? ???

rccardr 

Jack, I understand your reaction, I really do. But the vintage bike market just really sucks, has for some time. Great time to buy (I've picked up three in the past two weeks myself) but an awful time to sell.

Anyone looking to pay over say $1,000 for a vintage bike can afford to be very picky, if only because there are so many out there and so few buyers. Yeah, your Coppi is very nice, but powder coat is not popular among the Italian bike crowd. Even a quality respray can turn some buyers off.

So you can sell your bike, but not for a premium price. And expecting it to appreciate? Not so much.

Charliekeet

Hi. We’re not talking about things like cars & houses which typically require financing, and thus we can look at loan rates and costs which are in some measure tied to inflation...

We’re talking about disposable income for a bike, and in particular classic & vintage bikes for collectors which are/were really subjective anyway.
I’m not saying stuff hasn’t gotten more expensive.

I’m making a dark joke about the fact that on the average, we don’t make more money than we did then. So bikes shouldn’t cost more, cause we can’t afford any more than we could then.

satbuilder 

Mike Kone's and Sheldon Brown's guide is quite dated, and can't really be used as much more than a basis of comparison between brands and values.

Guideline condition as described by the authors, is "very clean original condition".

The sections on pricing and condition at the beginning of the article are important to read and understand. Guideline condition is described as very clean original condition. Many buyers of higher end vintage road bikes have certain expectations. From what I've seen over the years, they either want original paint, with minimal scratches, chips, etc. (garage queen), or a completely restored bicycle with paint and decals from one of the known shops.

T-Mar is correct when he says the powder coat and lack of decals detracts from the value.

Here are two examples of bicycles I have purchased over the last two years. May this will give you some better insight to the world of the vintage higher end bike market. Please remember this is not meant to beat you up over the price, I'm just trying to give you an idea of what price you could expect to get for your bicycle.

First is a '73 Bianchi Specialissima/Team Bike. It was advertised in 2016 on a vintage bike facebook page. Seller did nothing to clean up the bike, it had original paint, but no decals, except the head tube decal. It had a mismatched set of tubular rims, one Fiamme, one Nisi. Seat post and saddle were not original to the bike. Brake shoes and pads had been swapped out for something newer. Everything else was original Campagnolo NR, down to the date codes on the locknuts on the hubs. I gave him $500 for it plus $100 shipping. I consider it a great deal. There aren't many of these early Bianchi's around, and I've always wanted one. It's currently being cleaned up.

Second is a bike I found locally on Craigslist. It is a Proteus. Built locally by a shop in College Park, MD. Very well built bikes. Full Campagnolo NR. Handlebars had been swapped out for uprights, and the brake levers were not original Campagnolo. I gave $300 for it.

I didn't haggle on either one of these, didn't feel it was necessary. I bought the Proteus, as I was in need of Campy parts for a Colnago I'm putting together.

If you need to move the bike, you're probably not going to get what you want for it. There have been a lot of high end bikes in recent days being advertised that are bargain priced. Heck, one guy here got a '73 DeRosa for a song. So you have some stiff competition.

I hope you find the answer you're looking for.

Charliekeet

Here’s a quote from Forbes on it, lest anyone think I’m getting info from a wrongly-slanted source. This is why it doesn’t matter that your house has increased in value and your truck hasn’t depreciated as much as it could have:


And that writer was talking about this paper, but there have been lots of studies:
Understanding the Historic Divergence Between Productivity and a Typical Worker?s Pay: Why It Matters and Why It?s Real | Economic Policy Institute

wrk101

Congratulations, find someone local to buy your stuff. Here, houses have gone up zero in the last several years except for the lowest priced stuff. I've looked at a couple of nice houses that actually have gone down about 10 to 20% during that time and still have not sold. The higher price stuff is not moving. CA is its own unique place. Here in fly over country, we are not seeing it. FWIW, I bought my five year old truck, with 12,000 miles on it, for half of what the seller paid for it new. Seller had it advertised for 3 or 4 weeks, so its not like I got some smoking' hot, luck out deal either.

There are few to no good jobs in my area. Either you are retired, or you are working three or four jobs to get by.

twodownzero

If real median wages have increased 9% since 1979, that means that after considering inflation, the median worker has 9% more value at in every paycheck.

Who wouldn't want a 9% raise? Your quote contradicts the point you made earlier, where you said there has been no growth in wages.

Inflation alone since 1979 requires the median worker to make $3.61 to be equal to the 1979 worker. Your paper says he makes $3.93.

A 9% raise for doing nothing but breathing for 30+ years sounds great! Sign me up.

Folsomjack

The first and last new car/truck I ever financed was a 1953 Main-line Ford sedan, $1255 out the door and
$ 50.50 a month for 24 months. The last house I financed was in 1978 and that was 7 houses ago. ( Remember I live in California where houses have paid for themselves for the last 40 years.) Most new bikes around here go on to the plastic so that is why most folks are drowning in debt.

T-Mar

The fact that you've confirmed a wheel upgrade, verifies and defines it as a frankenbike. Also, that Avocet saddle wouldn't be OEM on a 1970, as Avocet didn't even exist in the early 1970s, let alone the probability of an Italian manufacturer specifying one. At least a couple of the Campagnolo parts are much later too. And it doesn't appear to be full Nuovo Record based on the pictures but it's hard to tell much from a non-drive side photo. Then again, the frame itself appears to be later than the claimed 1970 date. If you've got a $500 offer, I'd advise you to take the money and run.

Folsomjack

I countered back saying I would probably price it between $850 and $1000 and just a while ago got an offer of $800 subject to an inspection. I think it will bring the $850 . I will probably then keep the RB-1 that came with it.

StarBiker

This. Pretty place but nothing is there job wise.

Folsomjack

This has been and is a very interesting thread. The knowledge of some of the participants is awesome. I love old bikes but I have made my living in finance, mostly real estate related since 1973. Before that I was a heavy truck sales engineer. Some of my specials are still out there working . The value of "any stuff" in current dollars is and has always been what a seller/buyer could agree on. I sold custom speck'ed trucks in 1968 for $18,000 that would cost a quarter mil today. Houses I bought and sold here in Folsom for 12,000 in 74 bring $350,000 here today and attract multiple offers as they are so scarce at the lowest end of our price range.---The quote above is clearly true. ---I think my Paramounts are worth much more than others do , so they sit unused because I cannot reach the few people that would pay what I want. Does the sales site here actually work? What % of listings sell? I guess to find out I will have to join in and post a few, right? Happy holidays to all,---- Folsomjack.

StarBiker

Anyway the market is really soft. If you are in a large metro it's still soft.
I will add younger buyers do like retro stuff a lot. But it really hinges on name recognition along with condition, components.
$300+ bikes are tough to flip even in a market like DC. I see people getting high prices in CA, but where else.