This is an extremely difficult subject to pin down.

Will there be some finds, yes. I still see a good amount coming out of Italy and it's a small country (granted lots of builders). Tougher with time of course but values and cost are pretty stable so if you don't mind market or close you should be fine, though being vigilant goes a long way for a very good buy or find. The bubble was like housing, thinking all decent models will increase and buying things up, which inflates values short term. Also like the housing bubble that popped, many were buying as investment.

The group that rode in the 60s, 70's and 80's picked up or touted much of this as it's what they owned. Some are getting to an age where drop bars, harder ride (if they get on a carbon they may not come back), reaching for a shifter and not having the safest brakes are an inconvenience if they still ride. If they are collectors, or are just passionate about the history, that is another aspect. Also, starting to see more of the older generation liquidating their collection or bikes as well, so there may be some finds there as not everyone knows exactly what they have, or may offer a fair price just to get rid of. Especially for bulk buys. In addition, many do not like using Ebay and setting up and CL has it's fair share of flakes (and fn spammers!) so sellers burn out, etc. and just drop price.

FB and Instagram trend different and younger. I just got a message a couple days ago about a bike I posted. It was something like "that is a sweet whip!". And bikes that are collectible for the 90s are already starting to show a good following. Here a 90s is rarely mentioned. FB pages are still being added often for steel and the following of steel is large. Sales and finds are quite active.

The one thing that may prolong this era's life is that steel and change were abundant, so volume of available collectibility may be higher for some time. Also, the gears were sufficient to ride, as by the 70s most were at least 10 speeds so hills are fine unless you are serious about racing. This would be the aspect of which many have referenced classic cars. Muscle cars are slower than many production now, you have to roll down the windows, tune the carburetor, no A/C in the seats (what!) etc. But you get looks and status for the highly collectible ones. And some are trailer queens like wall hangers. Just a higher level and there are less of them with much more value when they are rare.

With all that said, and it potentially being off base, the nicer stuff will always be nice and has more of a chance of keeping value or increasing. In the 80s about 10m (also why it's tough to compare to cars, most people wouldn't know a dirty DeRosa from a clean Peugeot) per year were produced. Knowing what you have or want is a big part of how much you should spend, or how well you do on a purchase.

Hopefully forward and not downhill so much.

Just got interested in C&V bikes 3 years ago, and now you say the supply is dwindling?

Guess i'll stick with the low end bikes (Univegas, Raleigh Records, Schwinn World Sports)

Or else i'll start collecting Hot Wheels and Matchbox cars...

I ride retro roadie steel (10 or 11sp cassette stuff) in my club rides. Most of them become pretty aggressive rides. I give up maybe 2-4 lbs on the most expensive bikes in the group, but give up very little in terms of performance in most aspects. Interestingly, many of the newest expensive bikes showing up weigh pretty much the same as my lightest bikes due to their disc brakes (which are completely unnecessary for our group rides). If I didn't consider my retro roadie dujour as fast enough I would just buy a new bike. Most of my bikes are more interesting to me than anything I could pick up for under five grand. Not faster but more interesting...

For gravel I ride vintagish steel also. There the right gearing and tires matter more than any other factor IMO.

Off road there is no doubt that modern is faster. Although there is some upside having your local trail be challenging on a rigid bike instead of a yawn on a suspended rig.

All that said the market seems off as compared to a couple years ago. Bikes with brifters are now down in price and the midrange and lower end DT shifted bikes sit for months even at very reasonable prices. For that reason I have only been upgrading the quality of my bikes very carefully, trying not to n +1 on a net basis.

I actually think supply is increasing since it is easier to learn of a bike's location anywhere on the planet.

I think it depends on the new bike trends as well. Seems like it's either $800 for an LBS bike or $100 for department store. Price point vs the economic times we live in.
I compare bikes to craft beer. All of the sudden brewers found out people would pay a premium for craft beer and it exploded. I don't know how much higher they can push new bike prices before people start turning their backs. With no real budget options, people will continue to use the internet to find out quality C&V can be had for prices that are easier to swallow. I know I won't be spending $800 on a new bike any time soon, out of principal if nothing else. Then again, I'm in Wisconsin and a recreational rider.

The supply of vintage bicycles is dwindling! Absolutely! The supply is not and cannot increase, unless we invent a time machine, go back in time and build more bikes for us to find today. When I used to collect bicycles, this is what I would find, three times a week, just at the Dump. I salvaged all that I could, but how many did I miss...

http://www.mytenspeeds.com/My_TenSpe...ump_2011_1.jpg

And how many have fell prey to the metal crusher at all the other Dumps, around the world. The supply is dwindling!

Missed? One day, I saved this Raleigh Competition from the Dump...

http://www.bikeforums.net/attachment...3&d=1320526040

The next day, I watched this one being crushed right before my eyes...

http://bikeforums.net/attachment.php...hmentid=226984

Noglider brings up an interesting point, but not that supply is increasing. It is availability that has increased. Vintage bicycles today, compared to before Ebay and the internet, are easy to find. Incredibly easy, if you do the correct things to find them. And, lucky for me, I found this at the Dump, years ago, and took it out for a nice chilly ride yesterday...

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4187/...78793c83_c.jpg

But how many have I, we, missed?

Don't worry Schwinn's will always be available.

As far as trends in purchasing go, younger folks are all over the map. If I am to draw some sort of conclusion based on sales at our vintage goods booth we sell at over the summer, you never know WHAT the next group of buyers will like.

Big sellers for us? Pre-recorded Cassette tapes, vintage clothing with Sears, K-Mart, or JCPenney labels, "Bob Ross" style oil paintings, colorful figural ceramic planters, tacky textiles (especially table cloths and place mats).

So I guess that bikes could go anywhere.

To me its driven by what we remember from our youth, and just into the young adult years, as being things we either truly enjoyed using/riding, or we couldn't afford to purchase. No empirical evidence what so ever, purely based on observations and my own experiences. I now own examples of the type of bicycle that I wanted as a young teenager, and as newly minted "adult". My memory of bumming rides, just hanging out in the LBS in our area, or if I traveled I would seek out some shops just to look (and drool of course.)

I see some C&V riders that are seeking that one special bike that touched them somehow. Certainly there are collectors and those people that see a particular bicycle, then they are inclined to find one to satisfy the need that originated from their initial contact. If someone is looking at this as an investment means, as said multiple times previous to my reply, that is going to be a rude awakening for them. JMO.

Bill

Good steel, with good modern components, gives up nothing to carbon or aluminum. The stereotypical steel enthusiast might not up the cool factor for the young or pretentious hip. I guess the question is other than for those in the business how and why does it matter to us? I don't care to be fashionable..do you?
It is easily possible to build a 15lb steel racer but not with vintage, and not without funds. A perfectly serviceable vintage doesn't require real funds...but prestige does and always has.

We see trends with carbon as well. Not so long ago top end carbon frames were super stiff as well as superlight. Good for a racer but beat the cap out of a casual enthusiast. Now Im seeing seat stays lowered, a move back toward 27.2 and smaller seatposts, all for more vertical compliance..as well we have endurance bikes, gravel bikes, generally bikes with bigger tyre clearances and a more upright position with a 'supple' ride for the masses. Same with mtbs; when they were first introduced tomac raced on almost a road bike geometry...long, low and aggressive with narrow clearance so you could actually ride through a tight trail. Now trails are wide, mtbs are wide, and plush with an upright position so the masses can ride WITHOUT real skill...how many people can still do wheelies or bunnyhop? Even jumps and drops don't need any real skill other than a decent sense of balance. Why bother with skill...you can just BUY ability.
Anyway the point is bikes have evolved for the masses....just like everything else....but it does seem they've moved forward by moving back..just like mtb wheel diameters.

I like to woodwork and have put together a nice collection of OLD cast iron tools..built better, solid and reliable compared to anything at a decent price today. Even my Reno tools are the old Dewalt nicacd 18v xr stuff. It performs, and the batteries last longer than 2 years unlike the new fangled lithium stuff. New is not necessarily better...but old for olds sake seems kinda biased as well.
Take the best of both, and just ride. If you're in the market, enjoy being a contrarian.

Robots and plastics. In the future our robotic masters will ride us like bicycles. My age will make me "vintage", though not classic.

I'd warrant a guess that I'd be considered a younger person compared to others in the C&V community, and I'm by no means a collector, rather an enthusiast who values quality design at attainable prices. I can satisfy my desire to tinker with a very nice mid-range Japanese bicycle found on Craigslist for less than $200, enjoy the ride for a while, and sell it later to fund another project. I can't do that with modern bicycles, either due to the initial investment cost or the multitude of proprietary "standards" used in modern engineering. All of my "keepers" are V, although some have modern-ish drivetrains as those parts are more affordable and backwards-compatible. I can't foresee that changing at all, unless I get something custom-made. So I guess I can speak to the persistence of interest in C&V stuff in the younger demographic.

At a recent bike swap I met a guy who was buying bicycles in a way that I would describe as "indiscriminately." He bought one of mine, an early Univega mountainbike-turned gravel tourer, and he claimed that he was a collector of bicycles on a very large scale, as in hundreds. This guy was also younger, probably around 40. He said that he was diversifying his investment porfolio, as it were, by acquiring mountain bikes and hybrids as he was afraid that the C&V market was going to collapse due to the generational passing of the baby boomers, and that their collections of vintage goods were going to flood the market. It was an interesting conversation, as he seemed to approach bicycle collecting as a real investment. My bicycle, while pretty neat, was not at all what I would consider collectible or valuable, nor were most of the others he purchased that day. I suppose that when working with such numbers as he claimed to have there might be some marginal returns on each bicycle making the investment profitable. It seems untenable, though.

As said by others...bicycles are not an investment. Buy what you like to own, ride, collect...etc. Your bike may appreciate down the road, but it probably won't. The really top end stuff will likely keep its value.

Some of what might be getting confused here are the different types of value/market for different bikes all being thrown under the label C and V...a Japanese 105 bike that sells for $250 isn't a collector thing...it's being bought because it's a lot of bang for the buck as transportation. I think those bikes will continue to be valued in that capacity...though they may go up or down in value. I suspect older rigid MTBs will increasingly become popular as utility transportation.

As far as the high end road stuff...I think the 80s bikes will probably take some hit, but the higher end ones will still be desirable. The older ones...pre-boom particularly...will retain value based on scarcity. It doesn't take a huge market for demand...just a small number of people for a smaller number of bikes. Compared to most collector markets, bikes are cheap.

Unfortunately, the C&V market in my town is gone. Mainly because the interest in road biking is also gone. I talked to my friend who is a purchasing manager for a bike shop the other day and he said that last year he sold 2... that's right... 2 road bikes.

Admittedly he does work at one of the well known mountain bike shops in town, but they still stock plenty (20 or so) road bikes.

I think road biking itself is dwindling and mountain biking is taking over.

Road bikes are like rock n' roll...they'll never die, but they go through some lean times.

I live in Toronto. Bikes and cycling in general is booming. Even vintage, though mostly for commuting. I'm amazed at the quality of commuter bikes downtown.
If I were to open a bike shop it would strictly be for service. The ability to change a flat tire is a skill lost. Even basic gear tuning. Once upon my father's time a can of oil and a grease tube were standard fare in a garage...now not so much.

I think a lot of it is either what we really wanted as a youth, what we rode as a youth, or aesthetics that were popular at some key point in our development. As demographics change, what is relevant to the new demographic's youth will change as well.

I agree with your view completely, I should have clearly said that my thoughts were solely reflecting my own motivation, in the first portion of my reply. To try and use a blanket answer for the future direction our part of cycling will take is well beyond my abilities though.

The replies here seem to all have largely viable chances to bw what we see. But, we could well experience parts of each possible path, or something entirely unexpected will happen.

Bill

I'm from Southern Ontario. I think high end 1980s/90s bikes from prestige manufacturers (Pinarello, Colnago, Bianchi etc) will get more and more expensive. I find locally there's hardly any supply out there.

Asking prices for new listings of stuff are higher today than say, 2-3 years ago. They may not be selling through at those prices, but as more people get used to seeing these elevated prices, eventually the sell-through prices will climb as well.

I've sold a number of high end manufacturer bikes the last few years. I'd say 2/3 of the people who bought were under the age of 25, with a number of them in their teens. So there is a bit of a following among the younger generation for sure.

personally i don't care if the parts are new or 40 years old I just want the classic look, shiny chrome and aluminium.

Steel frames with 130 spacing at the rear and english bb will become more desirable while frames with 120mm and 126mm spacing at the rear and with french or italian bb will decrease in value. old tubular wheels will decrease in value.

They've got the Van Garderen blues up that way. He's an incredible talent for certain - just not quite the world-beater so many had hoped he'd be.

I really think that road cycling in general is doing pretty well - but obviously, most folks want new, whether they are commuting, riding for leisure, posing for status, or actually racing. We're a bit of an anachronistic fringe group, and I've seen peak interest here on Bike Forums shift from 70's bicycles to 80's in the 11 years I've been around. Peak demand seems to be sustained by 40 somethings and active 50 somethings for the most part.

my take is there will be less on vintage bikes and more classic look steel for a certain population

There are some people that don't care, but to me sloping top tube and threadless headset bikes, no matter what the material, are from a minimum awkward looking to simply ugly

A classic steel frame (vintage or not) with modern running gear is a wonder. I love my torpado, but as it is down with two dead wheelsets, I broke out my Miyata for commuting.....and was reminded how nice brifters and dual pivot brakes are.

the other problem/challenge to getting new C&V riders (and road) is that we have a whole generation who have never ridden drops and assume without evidence that they are uncomfortable.

People just dump bikes at a dump and you can sift through them and take them home?? :eek:
Somebody hold my beer!

The same way car collectors moved to muscle cars, C&V steel bikes are going to rapidly lose their value. Like a Model A, they are ubiquitous and not in any shape or form to be confused with real performance level bikes. Young kids and hipsters want Klein, Cannondale, Kestrel, Morgul-Bismark in the coming years.

To the cyclist that grew up on fast US aluminum and carbon any steel Colnago, Olmo, Ciocc, Masi is just lipstick on a steel pig.

Controversial view.

Almost certainly inaccurate, also.

Certainly no support for this in my local market. I base this evaluation, in part, on having conversed with many hundreds of local cyclists (including a great many young kids and hipsters) while working in a Vancouver, BC, LBS for the past year - and in part on my experience selling C&V steel to a similar demographic via CL, etc.

What leads you to make the assertions you do about the evolving tastes of "[y]oung kids and hipsters", anyways?

See, I think this is a terrible analogy because Colnago, Pinarello, Ciocc, Merckx, et al. are the Shelby Cobra, Mustang, Baracuda, Camaro, and GTO of their day. The aluminum and carbon are more like Porsche or something. Different kind of enthusiast, but room for both. Where you might be right is that some of the Raleighs and Swchinns from then and earlier will fade off into the background like the Model T. Something intricate like a Hetchins with its intricate lugwork might hold out like a 57 chevy or something with the big fins.

The value of aluminum bikes may be reinforced by the mere rarity of their survival. :innocent:

There will continue to be niche interests in vintage steel. The most prestigious marques/models will command higher prices than all but a handful of production equivalents. Your examples are absolutely ridiculous and delusional. Yes, the demand for mid-level steel bikes (the Fuji Sagres', most Schwinns, most Raleighs, etc.) will certainly drop off, but all the makes you mentioned, DeRosa's, Cinellis, Peugeot PX-10s, Schwinn Paramounts, Raleigh Team Professionals and the like, will have a more lingering demand, even if the prices will drop somewhat.

Another consideration is aesthetics. In general, steel racing bikes have a timeless elegance that even younger people seem to have some appreciation for. Contrast that to the fact that most of the aluminum and carbon frames of the 80's and much of the 90's is flat-out butt-ugly, and buzzy to ride.

Responding to the Mtnbk agenda is like arguing with a guy who has 10+ angry political bumper stickers on his SUV/pickup truck.

Hey at least he hasn't copy-pasted his rant about how Sheldon Brown was wrong about Olmo yet.