personally i don't care if the parts are new or 40 years old I just want the classic look, shiny chrome and aluminium.

Steel frames with 130 spacing at the rear and english bb will become more desirable while frames with 120mm and 126mm spacing at the rear and with french or italian bb will decrease in value. old tubular wheels will decrease in value.

They've got the Van Garderen blues up that way. He's an incredible talent for certain - just not quite the world-beater so many had hoped he'd be.

I really think that road cycling in general is doing pretty well - but obviously, most folks want new, whether they are commuting, riding for leisure, posing for status, or actually racing. We're a bit of an anachronistic fringe group, and I've seen peak interest here on Bike Forums shift from 70's bicycles to 80's in the 11 years I've been around. Peak demand seems to be sustained by 40 somethings and active 50 somethings for the most part.

my take is there will be less on vintage bikes and more classic look steel for a certain population

There are some people that don't care, but to me sloping top tube and threadless headset bikes, no matter what the material, are from a minimum awkward looking to simply ugly

A classic steel frame (vintage or not) with modern running gear is a wonder. I love my torpado, but as it is down with two dead wheelsets, I broke out my Miyata for commuting.....and was reminded how nice brifters and dual pivot brakes are.

the other problem/challenge to getting new C&V riders (and road) is that we have a whole generation who have never ridden drops and assume without evidence that they are uncomfortable.

People just dump bikes at a dump and you can sift through them and take them home?? :eek:
Somebody hold my beer!

The same way car collectors moved to muscle cars, C&V steel bikes are going to rapidly lose their value. Like a Model A, they are ubiquitous and not in any shape or form to be confused with real performance level bikes. Young kids and hipsters want Klein, Cannondale, Kestrel, Morgul-Bismark in the coming years.

To the cyclist that grew up on fast US aluminum and carbon any steel Colnago, Olmo, Ciocc, Masi is just lipstick on a steel pig.

Controversial view.

Almost certainly inaccurate, also.

Certainly no support for this in my local market. I base this evaluation, in part, on having conversed with many hundreds of local cyclists (including a great many young kids and hipsters) while working in a Vancouver, BC, LBS for the past year - and in part on my experience selling C&V steel to a similar demographic via CL, etc.

What leads you to make the assertions you do about the evolving tastes of "[y]oung kids and hipsters", anyways?

See, I think this is a terrible analogy because Colnago, Pinarello, Ciocc, Merckx, et al. are the Shelby Cobra, Mustang, Baracuda, Camaro, and GTO of their day. The aluminum and carbon are more like Porsche or something. Different kind of enthusiast, but room for both. Where you might be right is that some of the Raleighs and Swchinns from then and earlier will fade off into the background like the Model T. Something intricate like a Hetchins with its intricate lugwork might hold out like a 57 chevy or something with the big fins.

The value of aluminum bikes may be reinforced by the mere rarity of their survival. :innocent:

There will continue to be niche interests in vintage steel. The most prestigious marques/models will command higher prices than all but a handful of production equivalents. Your examples are absolutely ridiculous and delusional. Yes, the demand for mid-level steel bikes (the Fuji Sagres', most Schwinns, most Raleighs, etc.) will certainly drop off, but all the makes you mentioned, DeRosa's, Cinellis, Peugeot PX-10s, Schwinn Paramounts, Raleigh Team Professionals and the like, will have a more lingering demand, even if the prices will drop somewhat.

Another consideration is aesthetics. In general, steel racing bikes have a timeless elegance that even younger people seem to have some appreciation for. Contrast that to the fact that most of the aluminum and carbon frames of the 80's and much of the 90's is flat-out butt-ugly, and buzzy to ride.

Responding to the Mtnbk agenda is like arguing with a guy who has 10+ angry political bumper stickers on his SUV/pickup truck.

Hey at least he hasn't copy-pasted his rant about how Sheldon Brown was wrong about Olmo yet.

<insert rant here>

The observation above that 130 spaced steel will continue to become more valuable while 120/126 drops makes sense.

Collectors like us will always be unloading at various times. I have more bikes than I need now and once my boys choose which they want as they grow into them, the rest are going up f/s, and not with a goal of profit.

Every once in a while, man made objects can blend form and function to a point where they earn a classic status. This usually happens over time starting with more clumsy, inefficient designs then reaching an aesthetic high point. There will always be people who appreciate and value high points in design. These objects stand on their own without the need of nostalgia. I could name a number of objects that fall into this category and I believe the kind of bikes C&V folks here enjoy are one of them. What monetary value they may have in the future is anybody's guess, but I do believe they will be appreciated by enthusiasts of the future the same as today.

It depends on the level of bike. A 126 spaced "I want to ride it because it's a good value" bike/buyer will go down in value. It won't affect the person looking particularly for an (original condition) collector bike - which is where the money is.

With TV such as the staged "American Pickers," "Pawn Stars," etc. and faster computers, the days of finding a score at a garage sale, barn, etc. are coming to an end. EVERYONE is getting on the net to see what they have and pricing accordingly (if not higher). Either way, prices for rare C&V models such as the Paramount, Krates, etc., are going to escalate. As supply wanes, well, we know the effect on prices.


Additionally, while it used to be commonplace to see kids playing baseball during the summer in just about every neighborhood in America, it's no longer the case. iPhones, XBoxes and the like have taken their place with one notable exception. Kids cant drive until they're 16 (at least the majority of them can't do it legally). They still ride bikes. When the time comes that they'll be able to cobble up a few bucks, they'll pony up for a classic to add to their stable just as we've all done. I'm not exactly sure what tomorrow's "classic" is but the market will roll with the changes.

Every bike that I have sold(Tempo, Super Sport, PFN10, Gitane Super Corsa, Davidson Impulse, Alpina 5.5, etc.)has been bought by a young man in his twenties. I think their will continue to be a good market for vintage steel with a slow gradual rise in prices for rider grade bikes.

Collector grade bikes may tend to reach a plateau. When they go over $1,000 they compete with a lot of other toys. They may keep pace with inflation.

27 here...I'm a big fan of vintage steel frames with modern drivetrain. Granted I like a lot of old things and a minority in that thought.

I live in an area where there are a lot of affluent riders who MUST have the latest and greatest. Now that Campagnolo has announced their hydraulic disc road brakes I am looking forward to the day when I can purchase a top quality carbon bike (with rim brakes) for dimes on the dollar and find out what the carbon excitement is all about.

Oh, and it will have mechanical shifting since that too will become passe in a couple years if it hasn't already.

Brent

I think there will be increasing, not decreasing, value for mid-level, steel bicycles made in the US and Britain from the 1940s-70s. The fading away of those countries as old-line manufacturing powers, and perhaps eventual sinking to second-rate power status, will eventually yield a nostalgia for the products that came out of the height of those former industries. Don't necessarily hold your breath about a 1970 Schwinn Varsity, but a Super Sport, Sports Tourer, or something with a little hand-made cachet will do well.

Makes sense.

I don't know much about spreading the rear as I have no need. Barring any limitations, if one is willing to add a new group to an old bike wouldn't they also have minimal concern with cold setting?

Also, it does appears 80s-90s are more sought after by younger since they appear more modern in ways and have more options for gearing and styles. I prefer a good amount of the 80s myself. But collectors of multiple bikes that are not just wanting to ride an old bike will still be out there.

I wrote earlier in this thread that my interest mainly is within the 60ies to late 80ies high end racing bikes. I am in that generation. I do however find myself more and more drifting into the 90ies. I have tried to analyze why this has happened. I guess my original thought was that they were good users as in saving my more vintage bikes from rain and mud – but still being built in steel. I have no interest in alu or carbon frames. I like things that can last forever if being maintained properly.

Over time I have found myself more and more often actually seeking them up – these 90ies steel frames. The last hooray of steel in the pro peloton. And not looking for the older stuff any longer (I do have a sh-t load of them already – and that might also be a reason).

I have noticed that the competition for these 90ies bikes has become fiercer. In the beginning of my “drift” I could get a Merckx MXL for peanuts and MAX bikes of other makes were not very expensive either.

Today when I search the net for these the picture is different. Prices are going up rapidly. But I am still there looking and occasionally buying. Does this mean I will not use them in bad weather – because they are suddenly becoming collector material? I have not reached that point yet and I hope I never will.

https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3784/8...8a06d2db_k.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/359/31...77dc69f0_b.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/420/31...4afe2c19_b.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7117/8...9072b9b7_b.jpg
http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/b...bowWarrior.jpg
http://i208.photobucket.com/albums/b...pshfs2x2zv.jpg

We have similar preferences...

My favorite bikes to ride are the crazy 90s steel bikes. The MXL, EL OS, etc. I think they really got the feel and stiffness perfected.

As far as Sunday bikes/collector pieces, I really dig the 60s and early 70s stuff. It had personality. I love the ride/versatility of that period's Italians.

Most of the 80s is a bit too cookie cutter and/or stupid obnoxious paint for me. The 80s are somewhat of a transitional period, and, while certainly important, it has some of the worst of both worlds. It still depends on the bike of course.

I would love a few of those myself, but supply in 63-65 cm frames is limited and my budget is even more so.

This is a great make sense post and nice bikes. Popular bikes like Merckx and Colnago are hot items. Modern enough to ride with fast groups, reasonable enough price compared to new, steel and from the last century. The 90's will have their place. I have no idea on the carbon age.