Are C&V values falling (quickly) or summer doldrums?
 

Noticing that the prices (eBay) on '80's era steel Treks has...... fallen dramatically, and stuff isn't moving.

Is that just because it is summer riding season and folks have their ride for the year, or are people seeing a change in the C&V marketplace. Economy is chugging along, are people just buying new (like I did with that Salsa Marrakesh last month :) ).

Even the Trek 520's aren't pulling what they used to.

:popcorn :beer:

It's probably just the plain old economic supply and demand thing. There's literally millions of old bikes out there and, not that many people are really interested in owning one. Heck, I was just given three more free vintage bikes from friends & nieghbors recently. I've got a whole garage full of the stuff. Probably going to take a Fuji Special Road Racer, Schwinn World, & a Raleigh something or rather to Goodwill or the Co-op soon. Want to get the collection down to about 1/2 dozen of the best ones. Or, maybe 10 of the best ones. Oh my.

Just a guess, but around here BabyBoomers are:
A. Getting out of sports and selling off equipment cheap
B. Getting out of large hi-maintenance houses and moving into apartments, townhouses, etc. and selling off decades of accumulated stuff.
Supply is up, demand is down.

hmmm

Probably worse things in the world than having to keep the '87s around....

Yup, the bubble popped last summer but you're seeing the effects now. it won't be as drastic as the track/fixie bubble because C&V bikes at least can be used on a daily basis.

All those changes because they live - Beyond Hope! :foo: (wherever -plural- that may be)

I see 5 colleges in Cedar Rapids, so one might expect a coming demand at the affordable end of the spectrum. But they look like smaller institutions so campus size may negate anticipated demand.

The Seattle CL is packed with listings, I bought a bunch of bikes last year, bring them West.
The price of nice Zeus stuff is high, as well as Campy.

Or maybe the l'Eroica bubble has been satisfied.
The new stuff is easier; ours only gets older, harder to maintain, difficult to obtain in excellent condition. And appeals to an aging segment - granted we DO live longer lives.

The money is in old mountain bikes and versatile camping/ off road touring builds now. Bridgestones of any flavor, early lugged Stumpjumpers, lugged Trek 9xx series are bringing big money in the bigger, cooler cities.

No one wants another mid range generic Japanese road bike or even a nicer 531 Trek these days. Late 80s/early 90s are a little more desirable for retro roadie conversions.

However, I am surprised to see the same value drop in traditional touring bikes. They're doing a little better than roadies, and the RB-T and Specialized Sequoia/Expedition are going up, but smaller names have gone down. Probably the limited tire clearance and 27" wheels. Even with a 700c conversion, most will only fit a 32 or mayybe a 35 with fenders, which isn't very big these days.

I think it is mostly because demand had fallen quite a bit since the retro bike fad had faded in the past couple of years, plus a lot of C&Vers (Like me) have pretty much got the bikes of their dreams and are not looking for another bike as much as they were, a few years ago, when the C&V market had a boom.

I think stuff comes and goes a bit. One week one might see a shifter set at $100, and the next week, $200.

The other thing is there may well be a flipping bubble as flipper snatch up the good deals, double the prices and toss them back up on E-Bay and Craigslist and just sit on them.

Then, of course, pressure from the new market as manufacturers are churning out more and more carbon fiber and aluminum frames... And newer and newer groupsets.

While a 2018 CF bike may not exactly compete with a 1970 steel road bike... it does some, as people are getting more confidence in the CF, and prices are falling to the point where they are becoming affordable.

There really are 2 markets for the vintage bikes. The serious collector who wants something to hang on the wall, and the cyclist that just likes something nice to ride.

That second group of riders may well start looking at the newer versions. Brifters, brifter conversions, tig welded, touring specific, etc.

Could we also be seeing a point where cyclists from the 70's and 80's are either kicking the bucket, or moving on to something new, and bikes hidden away for decades are popping up on the market.

Hope, British Columbia - A regional joke, Coastal vs Interior

If everyone C&V just keeps on bashing toeclips, traditional cable routing, downtube shifters, friction shifting, rim brakes, steel, and everything else that makes C&V what it was, you may succeed in driving prices to zero. In some cases you have. The parts are in the recycling bin.

Most bikes are purchased by young people. There's a whole generation that doesn't even know what downtube shifters are. And they have been taught to be terrified of anything even slightly different than what they think of as normal. Anything out of the 2018 norm is sure to make you crash, leave you paralyzed or dead. Old people have all the bikes they need.

I've noticed here in Florida alot of retirees selling their high end bikes from the 70s -80s as they are getting too old to ride. Great time to buy those high end collectable bikes if you happen upon them. Those millions of mid range bikes will still be cheap due to seed supply and demand. Good time to buy...not so much to sell

Yes and no. Supply is up, not really. There will never be more vintage bicycles than there are right now. However, manufacturers are now supplying retro bikes intended to bite off their share of the vintage market. So, supply is up. Now demand...

Simply put, if demand was down, the big manufacturers would not tool up to make retro bikes. It is the retro bikes that does capture a large part of the market interested in vintage bicycles. So, in my opinion, both supply and demand are up. That said...

That said, prices on lesser vintage steeds will drop and, as noted, have dropped. But take a look at the prices of the higher end stuff. I am amazed, myself, at how much people will pay me for bikes, these days. And even more amazed at what people are paying for the top dogs of just about any well known kennel.

Just an opinion, but this is a perfect example of why entry to mid level vintage bikes are down in value...
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...067ac8a6a3.jpg

Joe (or Jodie) Blow (not the pump) buyer can get one of these cheaply made brand new pieces of eye candy and avoid the hassle of finding a bike, finding the components and then building it up themselves. Bought for a modest price at a yard sale and sold it for more than I have ever got for a Single Speed that I built up myself...
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...6727027baf.jpg

The same stuff is pretty much all I see on the local CL. The asking prices are at ridiculous "peak" levels, and it is mostly for junk. Personally, I am glad that things have cooled off a bit. It makes me think twice before I make a purchase. I can only ride one bike at a time, and probably only need one. Since it isn't so easy to get rid of something you put a few hundred bucks into, unless you give it away or donate it, you have to be select. I also see newer road bikes in the $2,000 +/- range that were probably just a bad fit. Good luck on dumping those. Good, inexpensive bikes (under $100) that are in good overall shape seem to disappear quickly.

Prices seem to be down here which has been bad on 2 counts. I have been trying to reduce the fleet this year. I took a huge hit on the 2 I finally sold but bought another 2 weeks ago because it was super clean, my size and VERY affordable. I'm stopping after work today to more than likely buy what appears to be a near mint 1985 Scwinn Voyaguer in my size that is priced way too low IMO. I've been passively looking for one for 3 or 4 years. I had the misfortune to check CL last night and BOOM....... there it was. Guy is firm on the price but he's also already quite low.

Flipping bikes didn't take that much skill ten years ago.

We would buy ten to fifteen bikes at garage sales, give them a quick tune, post a flyer at the beginning of college in the fall and they'd be gone in a weekend.

There are so many new/inexpensive bikes in the market at this point, that this easy cash market disappeared.

As far as the high end market goes, a used Weigle still goes for a decent amount of cash.

I had been looking for a clean example for five years and recently a Paceline forum member found one for me on the east coast.

A new 650b Weigle frameset pretty much is unobtanium, so I broke my no new bike rule and coughed up the cash.

I certainly don't regret it.

There seems never to be a definitive answer to this, and values seem to ebb and flow.

It takes longer to sell.
People are too busy FaceBooking or Instagraming to do much else; many seem to have ADHD as well.
Theft still happens. I sold a Schwinn Tempo frame set 3 years ago to a LA resident, who just had it stolen.
So why pay big $$$ if your bike gets stolen.
Even though bike lanes and trails increase, road surfaces get more rugged, making MTBs more desirable.

No discernable pattern, but it seems prices have dropped.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...71d1a2b5be.png

I have ADHD. It doesn't stop me from buying bikes. :p

Someone once remarked that vintage bike values are going down because you can get a decent new bike so cheap now. I think $600 was the figure quoted. That used to be Bikes Direct territory. Now Giant has a road bike that retails for $620. Sure, it has Claris components, but those are pretty good these days. That definitely cuts into the "value hunters" segment of the market.

The other thing that I think hurts among the hoi polloi buyers is the big market shift toward gravel/adventure bikes. Yeah, we all know that a vintage Trek is an outstanding option for gravel rides, but the people who have bought into the current marketing won't see that. They "need" disc brakes, thru axles and really huge cassettes for a 1x13 drivetrain. You can't give away a cyclocross bike with cantilever brakes these days. What hope does that leave for a bike with single pivot calipers or center pulls?

So that leaves just the people who are actually looking for a C&V bike, and we all know what cheapskates those guys are.

Hey, man. I STRONGLY resemble that remark. :notamused:

I think initially many were happy to get a cool old bike and mid range was popular. Also the older group valued them as they were childhood bikes. But now many just want high quality or recognized top names in good condition.

And, so many mid range Italian and other bikes became available from overseas on FaceBook. Steel is Real was kinda like here, people showing cool bikes or finds. Now it seems to be a for sale page. Rarely any new content and everyone sees everything all the time. The magic of mid range and less suffered.

Too many variables, genres, markets and niches to quantify easily. I'm having no trouble getting my asking prices, which I think are reasonable but definitely not cheap, on Ebay. I focus on pretty high end European (Italian, Spanish, AngloItalian (Masi)) bikes though and that segment may be a bit special.

I think that we have always overvalued the bikes in our hobby and as we have acquired the ones that we lusted after there are far fewer out there that are willing to pay those "high" prices.
It is the same with any collectible, at first you can have your pick as the movement continues its upsweep prices rise but not to a level to keep those new to the hobby from jumping in..it reaches its zenith before we realize it and prices start to fall.
There will always be those that will pay a price to fill a hole in their collection but that number is dwindling.
We here that certain marques sold for xyz..that was before, I am not saying it won't pick up again but it may be awhile.
Buy it if you find it.
JM2C's, Ben