Getting out while the getting is good
 

It looks like the used bike market is starting to collapse around here. It's not just road bikes, it's all bikes. I've been staring down this fact for awhile now, and think now might be a good time to exit. To that end, I stopped buying awhile ago and started selling off remaining stock. Thought I'd share a few thoughts.

I'm not sure what led to the collapse of the used bike market here, but I suspect two main forces: bikeshare and uber/lyft. We might be able to sustain a hit from one of those, but not both. A third factor might be the glut of cheap new bikes from mass marketers, but in my mind it's a distant third.

How people get around now, especially young people, is radically different than when I was growing up. I didn't have bikeshare or uber/lyft. Would I have grown up differently if I didn't have to rely on a bike to get around? Can't say for sure, but there would have been less incentive to own and maintain a bike if someone or something else could have served all my transportation needs.

The end result is that bikes, at least in urban areas, are becoming less attractive to own and more attractive to rent. Bikeshare solves the storage problem big time, especially in crowded apartment buildings. You can go crosstown without having to return the bike to the same spot you took it. That makes a lot of interesting one-way trips possible if you're using another method to get home.

And if all you're using is uber/lyft, why even hop on a bike at all? Like the old saying goes, why walk if someone will carry you?

Lately, I've been seeing a lot more no-shows and more aggressive buyers, and a general decline in prices from just a year or two ago. That's when I decided, let's put a stop to this and see what comes next. Who knows, the market may come back someday, but I wouldn't count on it.

In the meantime, I'm selling out piecemeal. Not even sure I'll keep most of my tools, might keep a core supply and sell off everything else. So I'm not planning on a market return. If it happens, great. If it doesn't, also great. I'm good either way. I've had my fun.

There are several thousand better (and easier) ways to make money than flipping stuff.

...on an hourly wage basis, you'd probably make more driving for Uber. And they hardly pay those guys a living wage.

For c&v, the Seattle market seems to have declined quite a bit as well. I think Portland is a lot better.

I can sell bikes for $200 all day, but the days of getting full value ($400ish) for a fully overhauled, mid-level bike may be behind me.

I know. It was never about the money, it was about a way to work on bikes and get a little pocket change to buy more bikes and parts. But the money had to be a consideration at some point, otherwise I'd be running a charity, and that is something I'm not prepared for right now.

People are willing to buy here in Los Angeles but at the same time sellers have to be willing to sell. Both parties must adjust to the softening market here.

affordable urban apartments are tiny these days, bike storage is tough in such cramped quarters.

large-ish urban apartments are so expensive, those residents likely don't use bike transport.

suburbia has historically been the haven of young riders, who knows if all the digital entertainment will suppress future bike riders. Hope not, but maybe.

Will the market for "previously-owned" high end bikes also collapse? If so, I look forward to that day.

Boys and girls, can you spell Masi? M-A-S-I

Can you spell Colnago? C-O-L-N-A-G-O

Can you spell Professional? R-A-L-E-I-G-H

I'm definitely seeing it as well. The privately owned LBS I frequent keeps saying business is good.
C&V is not new
C&V is not fat tire
C&V is not fixie
C&V is downtube - which nobody wants (much less know how to use)
First generation brifter bikes are dropping into C&V price range

I've seen it here, but for everything, not even C&V. A decent bike-shop level 700C hybrid won't get any nibbles at $75, IGH or otherwise. A $450 MTB is a $75 bike, if you're lucky. Something along the lines of a Raleigh Grand Prix as a frameset won't get a nibble for $35, and be prepared to sit on any 3-speeds at $50 or higher.

Even something equipped with NR or an '80s Campagnolo group - when halfway-decently priced - won't move. (The problem is, nobody is ever selling one of these. N+1=N! :P )

-Kurt

Hmmm.

Fortunately most of us who have bikes now own them for the joy of riding them.

It's a great time to be a collector, a terrible time to be a seller.

How is it down by you ? I used to browse ads down there but I think that one guy owns the market - LOL. And his prices are high IMO

Yes, the market has pretty much tanked on C&V bikes. I don't think we will see prices of C&V bikes like we did just six, seven years ago, for the foreseeable future.
As C&Vers we will just have to adjust our thinking, life haven't already, that the real value of our bikes is not what we might get selling them, but the joy of owning and riding these great classics that many of us never had a chance to do so in the past.......
Prices are now low enough that what we considered unobtanium becsuse of price, a few years ago might be affordable enough these days.... so, good for us!!

I don't flip or buy and sell. The last time I attempted to sell a nice bike on CL I kept getting lowballed.

Because I've got most of what I'm after- I don't check too often anymore. If its that one guy on the East side- with the pix of the cinder block of the basement, the whitish siding and the PVC exhaust pipe... That guy must've been selling an unreal amount of bikes. There was the guy on Greenfield over here- the whole yard/driveway area was covered in bikes...

The market, for vintage road bicycles has softened for the entry to mid level offerings. Those bikes are forced to compete with stuff like this...
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...7bf20dd7db.jpg

...and in an uninformed market, that above Fixie/SS, is affordable, easy to find and trusted. Trusted? Yup, simply because it is new and sold through stores or professional appearing outlets. And the retro industry offers just about anything you can want. With that in mind, why would the newbie, guy or gal seeking a cool looking vintage bike, go to the trouble of finding one, refurbishing it and the rest of the "get it on the road" gambit, when a satisfactory new bike is sitting right there, in WallyMart, ready to go and with a money back guarantee?

My guess is that that newbie would just buy new. And such sales have and will continue to dramatically impact lesser vintage steeds selling prices, thanks to the old age law of supply and demand.

The high end vintage road bicycles, the more collectible ones, are going up in value, or so it seems. This is the only vintage bicycle that I kept when I sold out, two weeks ago. Yup, let it all go except for one bike, my 1968 Legnano Grand Premio and one project bike, my 1958 Rabeneick 120d. I am pretty sure that both of those old steeds will continue to appreciate in value.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...adf055160e.jpg

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...c5f46d9222.jpg


But, believe it or not, $$$ no longer fits into my vintage bicycle interest. I just want to ride my Leggy, build the 120d and hope something interesting and for little or no cash outlay, falls into my grasp. I would not turn my nose up at a Legnano Roma, if one were to come my way.

East side guy gets some nice stuff, from where I don't know, but IMHO is overpriced.

The Fair park guy is quantity over quality

If I flip something it's because someone is cleaning out stuff and gave it to me because I'm " A bike guy" and it doesn't need much in consumable part $$. A lot of times I just strip parts and donate the rest to dream bikes.

I grew up in the neighborhood across from the guy on Greenfield and 124th. Bought from him but back in those days I knew nothing about bikes and only rode them as tools. I was just developing a desire to ride for the sake of riding. Ironically, currently staying at the Embassy Suites in Brookfield.

Like other said in this thread: The quality vintage stuff doesn not go down in price but is still going up. You see the same in the art world. When the economy is bad you see art drop in price .. most art but not the real quality pieces .. those always go up. If you have a mint 1970's DeRosa with original parts it will still go up in value. A 1980's Univega .. no don't expect that to go up much. As pointed out here .. most of us still get joy from owning and riding some nice bikes. If you don't have to sell don't sell now ..wait and see if the market turns.

I never got into this as a financial consideration. Sure, I try to be thrifty, but what's happening was bound to happen. It's supply and demand. Fewer around who are looking to acquire the bicycles of their youth. After my latest round of acquirings, I am at saturation. Sure, it would be nice to have a spicy Italian hot rod or a French constructeur - and who knows, in a few years I may do some shuffling around.

I do have to say I'm glad I never was into bmx. If I were, I'd be collecting bikes I can't comfortably ride, and paying high prices for them.

My observation is a smaller vintage market of which follows less demand, lowered price. Not always the rule as it only takes one wild for that special bike, eventually and willing step up. Probably why we see a bike listed on Craigs for a few years... Lol.

I know of a few 'real storefront bike dealers' (not jippers or un-official bike biz) taking in older Dura Ace equipped trades as actual cash valuation $100. No hard feelings but they have to run a business with overhead. To compete with hobbyist flippers on Craigslist doesn't help either.

As for new, there's now many segments and a bike for specialized use. Manufacturers can rapidly design to produce efficiently and cheaply. The idea that a buyer at a bike shop will not be a one time buyer, but expect near future and add a fat tire or perhaps e-bike, gravel grinder, adventure, etc..

One dealer I know is part of an indy network and carry many top brands. The highest priced and premium race, tri bikes are a pretty good market and selling but drastically discounted, especially new stock that's one model year old.

No trades but offers the customer to consign their older bike. But those too are higher end and he won't allow common cheaper bikes to be consigned. Its a tiered arrangement so as the bike sits beyond 30-60-90 days, the percentage to the dealer increases. This keeps the floor fresh and turning.

Buyers out there might be pleasantly surprised by some real storefront dealers. That used $400 priced Dura Ace bike just might be had for a fraction of that.

The dirty and surface corrosion, tubular tire, down tube shifter bikes get tossed to the back. For those vintage treasure seekers, ALWAYS ask the dealer what 'JUNK' they might have.

Hey, at least that means I don't have to work my butt off to acquire this stuff in carloads :)

-Kurt

P.S.: Please send my $25 Colnago FOB, Miami.

I guess I was inadvertently wise to stop looking at stem shifiter/suicide brake road bikes about 18 months ago my experience with that market is eventhough I could find the bike for cheap after parts and refurb I was barely breaking even and I had no desire to keep any of them.


I do still have probably 3 road bikes that I would like to sell this summer, nice mid tier but nothing super special. I have had a late 80s LeTour, refurbished sitting on CL for about 2 weeks with zero bites, fortunately I got it cheap and stuck to a basic refurb (bearings, cables, chain and FW, the tires and wrap were ok so I left them alone) so I have some wiggle room to keep dropping the price.

My other rule is buying stuff that fits me so I guess if I can't sell it at least I can ride it :lol:.

I don't disagree that the market has softened up but that doesn't stop people asking $200 and up for their musty dusty unrestored entry level road bikes, not that they are getting sold....

Yup, the new stuff sells a lot more easily. Brifters, disc brakes, 10- or 11-speed. Over the weekend I sold a disc CAAD bike for an appropriate sum (most expensive sell price of a bike of mine by 2x) with just a bit of margin for all my troubles to get that thing built and running. Thought it would languish online for a while, but it was only up a week. Big frame, too.

The early millennium bikes with brifters (road, primarily) are now in their "outdated bikes" phase on their way quickly to "just old bikes" (1990s, 1980s). Those bikes, if refurbished, 'sit' on a brifter-ized '80s bike price-wise, so around the $400-600 range it's a bit packed. And low level new / few years old entry level road stuff is also quite near in price. Lots of compression. I suppose my accidentally-advantageous differentiator is the fact that my tall bikes fit properly tall people and aren't some "XL 58cm" fake-stretched up to 64cm or something, as was the case of a lot of bikes from the mid-'90s through ~2010 it seems. What a desert for us tall people, especially the '90s. So back to the '80s and '70s I happily go!