gugie 

Because somebody had to do it...maybe afraid to jinx it? My anti-jinx is to come right out and write, "what could possibly go wrong?" Plan is for me and some friends is to do a "training ride" from Bay Area to Cambria - but that's a separate thread TBD. Right now I just want to shed the bad mojo and start a fresh thread. Keep positive, folks.

As of this typing the Eroica peoples have chosen September 12 for this year's version. If you paid for the 2020 ride, you're in. If you paid for the 2020 ride, but can't make it, they're allowing transfer to someone else. If you haven't paid for 2020, and want in, right now I don't see registration being open. I'm sure that as soon as it is, someone will post here and let us all know.

Folks, time to start training! Our bikes won't walk ride themselves up the steep climbs!

jackbombay

I will be there! And I will not walk my bike!

Kabuki12

Well I get my second dose on Tuesday for the Pfizer Vaccine and been riding quite a bit this winter due to the nice weather and reduced hours at work. I feel I am as ready as ever and will look into reservations at San Simeon State Park for a space for our motor home. I am thinking of getting there a day early and staying through Monday . I will most probably ride the Colnago and bring the Medici to ride on Saturday as transportation to town and back. Maybe a pre ride for those who don’t do the trek down the coast with team gugie?

mgopack42 

I am in, and all paid up. Looking forward to the weekend. I got cracking on the training plan, have better gearing on the Masi, than I had on the Ciocc (read old guy gears).



My wife has been making noises about the short route for the Nova Eroica too. I think that I signed up for that one too (long time has passed), since they gave a special deal after all of the complaints after the 2019 version. Also hoping to make it an epic week, with the ride with Gugie from SF to Cambria! such grandiose plans! I may be old, but not too old to dream!

Spaghetti Legs 

Undecided right now. I’d like to ride Cino, which is a couple of weeks before this and two trips out West in this time frame might be a stretch as I annoyingly still have to earn a paycheck. I do have my 2020 Eroica credit AFAIK. If Eroica sells out and there is a roaring 20’s post pandemic frenzy of fun, I could auction of my registration for some “mad stacks”!

rccardr 

If things continue as they have been and progress has been made on Pando stuff, I'll be there.

mech986 

Hey Gugie, I just saw your posts and this thread, you beat me to it!

I still hold a registration from 2020 so technically I'm still in for Sept. 2021. I literally hadn't ridden for a year until last Saturday and surprisingly, I didn't feel bad on the bike again at all. Lots of stuff going on that occupied me last year. Just got my first Moderna shot so end of March will get 2nd. If California pushes on with vaccination, trying to get could have maybe 50% vaccinated (20 million) by late summer? Currently in phase 1A and 1B, that would be ~15M total but not clear where we are with that. Opening up March 15 to Age 16-64 with high risks. Would that be enough by September, sure beats not progressing to that goal so hopefully California continues its vaccine progress..

Currently in California 10.7M vaccine shots given out, suggesting about 5.4M equivalent people are fully vaccinated. That's only about 13% of all Californians but that doesn't take into account most children and young adults aren't likely to need vaccination for a some time.

Will decide in coming months if going based on safety and training. Hope to.

Bart

Thalia949

Since my registration rolled over, I am planning to ride if the event occurs. I would suspect (and hope), that CA gets more vaccinated by the summer months and it allows for mass participation events such as Eroica.

Given that I've had no business travel for a full year, I've traded the time that used to be for work travel to riding more, so fitness is good.

I've also got a reservation for Eroica Gaiole which is in the first week of October, so if the world is healthy, it could be an epic month.

bikingshearer 

I registered for 2020, so I'm registered for 2021 and plan to be there, assuming all goes well on the vaccination/Covid front. I will likely do the short route again. Since I am a spring chicken of 63 without what enough risk factors, I have no idea when I will be able to get my shot(s).

I hope this comes off, if for no other reason that it would mean that things are getting better.

gugie 

Last month I was cautiously optimistic. Based on the vaccination run rates and latest CDC recommendations, I'm now pretty optimistic.

In a few months anybody over the age of 16 that wants to get vaccinated will be given the opportunity. I obsessively look at COVID data daily. For vaccinations, as of today:


from NY Times, 3/11/2021

Herd immunity could occur significantly sooner than the end of August, as millions of Americans have had COVID-19 and recovered or were asymptomatic.


from NY Times, 3/11/2021

The wild card is the potential emergence of variants that are more contagious, more deadly, or signficantly more resistent to current vaccines.

New data changes these predictions on a nearly daily basis.

Kabuki12

Yes, gugie , this is good information. I think that a lot of us have had it and did not even know, or at the very least , been exposed. I am not saying we should throw caution to the wind but with vaccinations and anti bodies there is a certain level of herd immunity. It still is an unknown and I am not going to be foolish. I still wear a mask and stay clear of other people. This last weekend I did a fairly long ride(for me) and felt great. I did notice quite a few cyclists out and about and actually one group of riders. I am not ready for that , but two weeks after my second dose on Tuesday I will feel a lot more secure. I have a great immune system but my wife , not so much, and she is two weeks behind me on vaccination. I still need to be very cautious for the next month or so. I think we can be reasonably optimistic and I do want to support this event in any way possible. I know they have taken a huge financial hit having to delay the event so long . I am hoping we show up in force and prove that this event is better than ever. I know I am ready!

gaucho777 

I'm very likely to attend in September, though still not 100%. I am due to get my 2nd Pfizer dose tomorrow. Benefit of being a school teacher. I still have to convince my wife that some things are more important than anniversary celebrations. Or maybe my angle should be: "Wouldn't Cambria be a romantic place to spend our anniversary?" I did register for 2020, so I have my rollover registration for September. The date is not as convenient for me as April, though that will give me a few more months to get back in shape (my mileage is way down this year).

@gugie, I'm also becoming more optimistic about vaccination numbers. However, those graphs you posted are based on the mistaken assumption that the trendlines will follow through the whole population, and everyone who can get vaccinated will. A recent poll indicates there will be some holdouts...

davester

I'm completely vaccinated and ready to roll. Assuming that the rate of vaccination outpaces the virus's ability to evolve immunity to it, I'll be rolling down the coast with Gugie and friends.

merziac

And these people are not simply holdouts, they are defiant, delusional, miscreants that will count for more than just not likely but potential superspreaders that think they are smarter than the virus, science and all else.

Hopefully the herd immunity will override their misguided thinking.

iab

That didn't take long.

Classtime 

I WONDER IF IT WILL RAIN THAT WEEKEND!?

I've since hung up my Gatorskins GP4 wheel set to save that little diamond tread. The Sedis chain and and Sachs 13/24 don't skip and if my new chain shows up soon for my RS, I can save the old grease and grime on my Medici for Sept. 12.

Eroica ready.

gugie 

I started this thread to be a positive one, let's keep it that way. If you feel the need to vent, please do it somewhere else.

A lot of people have their own reason for not wanting to get a vaccine right now. Looking at data coming out of Israel, for example, your odds of becoming seriously ill or dying from the virus are drastically reduced after your jab(s) and a few weeks are drastically reduced. Once what I expect to be overwhelming data from the US is broadcast over the next few months show the same, I'll bet a lot of those people change their mind.

Regardless, I'm excited about doing some long rides with my vaccinated friends.

gugie 

Lessee, is SLO County considered Southern California, or is it close enough?

gugie 

Modeling shows that if we completely get rid of all safeguards, more people will get sick and die, but perversely, we'll get to herd immunity more quickly. So we'll get to herd immunity via vaccine + infections.

gaucho777 

^Good point. Obviously better to reach herd immunity via vaccination rather than vaccination + infection, mutation, death, and long-term effects.

Regarding SLO question, if I had to pick North versus South, I’d say Southern California. However, as a CA native, I’ve always considered SLO Central California. It’s not far from Santa Barbara, which is SoCal, but culturally it’s different.

Classtime 

Farmer's Almanac says it will be pretty stormy in early Sept. and again from mid Sept. to Oct. The 11th and 12th are not early but they could be mid.

gugie 

I was born in SoCal, moved to the Central Valley when I was in 4th grade (which is definitely not NorCal or SoCal in the way I think of it), but considered SLO Central Coast. Culturally it's different than them all.

Still, doesn't rain much at all, especially after I've acclimated to the PNW over the past 7 years.

mech986 

I think that's the specific approach that will work, with a bike ride or two thrown in. Plenty of AirBnB or VRBO homes that would be excellent places to stay with ocean views. Question is though how long could you stay to make her feel special while riding Eroica and recovering from the ride. Its got to be more about her than the ride. Also, probably wouldn't recommend suggesting the pre-race dinner counts as a date.

Agree, SLO/Cambria plus Paso Robles really is Central Coast, areas with distinct charm, weather, and character all their own. As for rain, nothing is as much as Portland / PNW rain weather, you guys measure in 35-45" of rain annually, Cambria only about 20, which is still more than the 14" or so SoCal gets. Between 2011-2017, we had single digit rainfall totals.

73StellaSX76

I’ll be back for another round and looking forward to it. Look for me on my blue Stella. Regarding the possibility of rain, I wouldn’t mind it in September, I’d almost welcome some light showers, much preferred over early April rain.

Spaghetti Legs 

Never listen to rain estimates from a PNW'er