Path Less Pedaled: Grant Peterson interview (The Future of Mechanical Components)
 

I didn't see any thread about this quite yet...so I thought I'd bring it to this forum's attention!

My initial thoughts...there have been legacy components created for decades now, but mostly because road bikes stayed much the same, despite threadless headsets and brifters, until about 10-15 years ago. There has been a clear break with 20th century bicycle design these days, at least in the higher end. Well, all the way down to Shimano 105 groupsets, actually, now that it's gone electric as well. I'm not sure if the doomsday scenario Grant predicts will come to pass, but I do wonder about the next 'keepers of the flame'. What happens when Jim from Soma/Merry Cycles retires? Grant? Who has the connections and the desire to carve out the mid/high end mechanical bicycle parts business?

As someone who is only 29 years old and in love with bikes that are at least that old, more often older, I do wonder about my ability to find parts in the more distant future (i.e. 20-30 years from now). I think friction shifting will be key. Stocking up on certain parts, like a few choice front/rear derailleurs. Perhaps chainrings, too. 9 speed chains? I've already started on freewheels, a bit...though probably safest to just grab a couple nice 126mm hyperglide cassette compatible hubs right now. Not relying on cartridge bearing hubs/bottom brackets/headsets/pedals/etc. Axles, external quick releases in certain lengths. The list goes on.

I don't mean to be a downer. In general, I'd say the outlook is optimistic in terms of being able to put together C&V bike using mechanical parts that are new and old. There is an amazing array of parts from the 60s-current that work on bicycles from the 70s/80s/90s that follow the usual standards. There ought to be a supply of parts available for a long while since most people of my generation and younger don't really care as much about vintage bikes given that steel was a thing of the past by the time we were grown, and demand probably will never be as high as it was these last 20 years. Most people my age seem to be embracing modern bike design without much worry.

What's your impression?

I have a big enough pile to keep me going to my foreseeable demise, be it literal or figurative.

Glad its not going to be a big concern for me with the way things are going, happy I have what I want and need to get me down the road.

Still sad for all the folks that won't get to experience what we have and truly understand and appreciate how we got here.

Threadless, cartridge, disposable, throwaway, profits at all cost, crap. :troll:

An hour+?

oh yeah, it's GP. :o

It is a subversive plot to increase the minimum orders Grant needs to make to purchase what he wants to sell.
there will continue to be mechanical shifting drive trains below the Shimano 105 series, will have to look at the best functioning parts that are part of the Walmart offerings.

I haven’t seen the vid yet (will soon), but hoping it ends in a prediction that a giant EMP will take out all the electronic shifters with all the antiquated bikes remaining untouched for the apocalypse?

With the availability of classic bikes and components , I think we are safe. As meziac stated , most of us have back ups to keep our beloved , old bikes going. I now have to buy most of my consumables online because it makes no sense for my LBS to stock 32mm stem tubes or 27" tires. I have mostly 700c , but a few still run 27" and I buy at least twice what I need when I buy. I still see $100 or less complete bikes out there that I buy occasionally to fill my bin with parts and donate or trade the frame. Grant is a good guy , but strongly opinionated and has been in it long enough (struggled) to see what's coming for most manufacturing of bikes. His opinions are based on a completely different set of standards than a small time collector/ rider. My daughter is 26 and still loves vintage steel bikes ( she has three) and she gets to sort through whatever I have when I am no longer here to enjoy them. There will be plenty to go around when us old guys go. I can remember in the sixties when every bike rack at school was loaded with ten speeds , it was too cool NOT to have one.

Great share, I will listen today !

My dad once said to me "people have been predicting the end of the world for a long time. Sooner or later somebody's going to be right".

to me its not so much "mechanical" as "repairable"

at it's core the bicycle is a simple machine that when integrated with your body enables you to travel long distances with great efficiency. The bike is a vehicle to an experience. words like freedom, exhilaration and fun come to mind.

but the modern "ultra race" bikes - all black, all carbon, electronic shifting, tubeless, ultra light

may work well in the Tour where you have factory mechanics to maintain them.

But they will not be around in 20 years? I wonder.

Don't get me wrong - I love my 11 speed DI2 ebike ! but there's still something special about the Masi I've owned since 78 that is tuned to perfection and never fails to bring a smile.

Some guy once wrote a book called "it's not about the bike" and I agree.

Most of my bikes are 20+ years old and they are plenty good enough for me. And, they are maintainable. By me.

/markp

It's funny how good ideas come back again: vinyl records, tube amplifiers, film cameras, banjos, craft beers, quilts, home-baked bread, bamboo fly rods...
I'm not too worried about the future of mechanical shifting and rim brakes.
Brent

I liked that video. Totally intended on ff thru parts of it knowing GP, but ended up listening to every word.

The greater the separation between current production and legacy, the more rare the legacy gear becomes.

That's how it goes.

The legacy gear becomes a hobby for collectors, as opposed to a cheap ride for the masses.

I worry about the consumables more than the metal - freewheels (120 mm not 126, not cassettes), chains, chain rings, brake hoods & pads, cables, tires, tubes,... because I actively ride my bike and these things get worn down.

The UCI will keep track racing on fixed gear mechanical bikes current technology. We are all good.

Why?

The parallelogram derailleur didn't hit its stride until 1951. Most my bikes predate that technology. And while it is not immediate satisfaction, I am patient, there isn't a part I haven't found. I can finf NOS from the 1930s.

Your "worries" are entirely misplaced.

I wonder if AI could reduce that hour+ to a couple of sentences?

On topic: I believe that the World's majority of bicycle riders use single speed or 3 or 5 speed bikes. China and India are the 2 largest countries by population, and probably cyclists. I believe the future of bicycles with 100% mechanical drivetrains is a sure bet, based on copies or slight improvements on what we have today. Maybe not from Shimano, SRAM or Campagnolo, if they drop the lowest profit margin products in the line-up.


Intel (back-in-the 'my days') used to make memory chips, but got out to make more expensive chips.

Don't know how watching YouTube videos works on phones, but I just watched a bunch of that video at 2x speed (click on the gear wheel under the video and adjust the speed) and scrolled the image upward so I didn't have to see that the host's grinning, eminently punchable face. Turn on the captions, and turn off the sound. Very easy to read, with all the stuttering and repetitions.

I haven't watched the video yet, but Grant has been predicting that electronic shifting will take over for a long time now. It might have even been in one of the Rivendell Readers.

The way I work, I have two categories of parts: vintage parts I need to dig into the second-hand market for, and then newly produced parts that are consumable and keep the bike on the road.

Finding second-hand vintage, durable parts requires patience, but eventually you find what you need usually. Sometimes it takes longer. But after 27 years of working on old bikes, I've found that if you just stay at it, you eventually locate what you need on the second-hand market. Sometimes it's expensive, but durable type parts (the kind you don't consume through regular us of the bike) eventually work out.

My bigger worry is that some form of consumable part that I need for a bike goes extinct, because it's then something I need on a recurring basis and which is no longer made. The best example I can think of are 597mm tires, which is the old British 26 x 1-1/4 club size and, in a little fatter form, the Schwinn S5/S6 type size. Tires are something you consume and wear out, and which you buy every so often. If those tires stop being made, everything becomes more difficult for my bikes that use that size. It means scouring second-hand tires or replacing rims, neither of which is what I want to do. As of now, there is only one supplier of these tires in one size that I can reliably locate. If they stop, life gets difficult. I see what happened to the old 599mm tires (the ancient US-based 26 x 1.375 decimal tires), and I don't want that to happen to 597s.

So I would be less worried about something like the derailleur not being made, and more worried that certain tires, or chains, or brake pads, stop being made because those parts you consume need to be refreshed every so often to just use the bike.

the basic assembly scheme for a road bike has endured for a long time.
‘things will get more difficult.
variety will suffer.
think 27” tires, still made but much fewer options.
700c clinchers that are not of tubeless ready/capable- one can see the future and it will have fewer options. The latest tubeless tires have a bead that does not play well with the
‘hooked’ bead rims of recent times. Newest bead shapes are more square in exterior profile, the rims with sections of a circle at the hook groove do not accept them always well.

segmentation will return to what can be made in viable qty.

Disk brakes = BLECH!

Got some in the basement, waiting for the frameset. I've never had any. I'm excited to give them a go.

Why did I feel like I was watching a Norm Macdonald skit? Had a chance to chat with Grant at his store and he was interested in the Waterford I was riding but you could see the gears in his head turning. Pretty sure he was holding his tongue on the DA shifters but did acknowledge the XT derailleur. Interesting point on how taxing business brought along the demise of the tooling.

AdventureManCO, you better get busy with the Allez, the Huffez, or whatever the hell crazy bike you're working on now, because we can't have this thread become the top of the forum for the next six weeks :lol:

Well, since you mentioned it...

V-brakes = BLECH!

Ok, back to the regularly scheduled GP whinefest :)

-Kurt

Yeah, I usually watch stuff like that at 1.5x.

If the Tour de France returned to the format where a racer started with one bike and that was the bike he had to race throughout, no time trial bikes, the bike better last as that ONE was the bike you had to complete on, race bikes would get more sensible, serviceable, durable.

^^^^^
This ^^^^

I agree, those of us who really want to maintain mechanical bikes, and avoid whatever the major OEM's are trying to push (for now) upon us, then we need to accept the following:

A) High-end race components from Shimano and SRAM (and really, even Campagnolo), are no longer something to worry about. They have moved onto a technology that is a form of cycling that we are not interested in.

B) Shimano lower end tech is actually a great value play, if what you want is a functional bike, built and with components that, brifters aside, is akin to a bike from 35 years ago.

C) If you want, three places to me, are where you can still try to do a modern build bike with traditional parts: (a) Rivendell Bikes, (b) Velo Orange, (c) Renee Herse, (d) Soma Fab or Crust or a Custom builder.


There will be part available to allow us to ride, but the real question is whether we will have access to parts from OEM's that traditionally correlated to the frame, and I am no longer sure this is the case going forward.

Grant's a funny guy, I stopped and bought a shirt on the way home from Eroica, he was all over the racks on the Merz, took a bunch of pics and didn't say a word to me.

I reached out after I got home and Will responded that Grant was very intrigued by them, find it hard to believe he'd never had a good look before.

Offered to share more info, pics, reach out to Jim, whatever, crickets. :twitchy: