Wow, so many interesting arguments in this thread that I no longer have the time/energy to assert my opinion! Vintage and modern bikes, cars, and Hi-Fi all in one thread? I've died and gone to heaven, (or hell). :) Just don't bring up musical instruments: analog vs. digital, or tube vs. solid state, unless you want an epistle for each of the above! :twitchy:

Carry on.

Anything that someone wants or admires NOW will be "classic" 30 years from now. Just a few examples:

In the late 40's and early 50's, Model A Fords were not "antiques" or "classics" yet, just "used cars"...but they became classics later, during the 60's, as their numbers shrank and they became infrequently seen. (Watch the movie "Dark Passage" from 1948 to see how a Model A touring car was viewed at the time).

During the late 60's and early 70's, the market was flooded with used British motorcycles, LOTS of Triumphs, BSA's, Norton's and Enfield's. They were high performance for the era, very troublesome to keep running properly, and depreciated quickly. Lots of them changed hands for $500 or less. NOW that they are seldom seen, people are all misty-eyed and nostalgic about them, and they command high dollars.

The status of "classic" grows more quickly with items of perceived higher quality or exclusivity. A 1959 Honda 250 was much slower to be viewed as a classic than was a 1959 BMW 250. Although the Honda offered vastly better performance, the BMW cost much more, and most people believed it would last much longer. (Difficult to say for certain if that is true, as owners tend to care for expensive items differently than inexpensive ones. Given identical care, they might have enjoyed similar lifespans).

Much the same thing happens with bicycles. Decent "utility" bicycles like the Raleigh 3 speed were admired by many who went to high school during the 50's and 60's, and so now such a bike is sought after. In the 70's, when 10 speeds became more popular, the dominant bicycle in US high schools was easily the Schwinn, with Varsity's, Collegiate's, and the like clogging the racks on campus across the country. Now those bikes are also sought after by many.

A Schwinn Paramount was expensive when new, viewed as very high quality, and carried a lot of prestige. I didn't even know ANYone who owned one when I was in high school (not sure if they would have ridden it to school, anyway). Such a bike would have attained "classic" status very quickly, and probably never lost it.

The bottom line is: WhatEVER you wanted and could not have, OR whatever you HAD but (one way or another) lost, will become your "classic".

What is a diesel Grand National? I worked as a mechanic at a GM dealer during those years and I have no idea what you talk of. Maybe you mean the Regal?
The GNX is rare but all Turbo Grand Nationals are collectable.
Although I hated the cars at the time I want one now...

ricohman, The diesel varients are fairly new. Stuff a Dura Max with a tune into a caged mid size GM body. Here's a Chevelle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhgXSlEFncw&NR=1
Brad

I meant a factory offering back in the mid 80's.

It seems these diesel-GNXs weren't originally Grand Nationals at all - they were other Buicks on to which a complete body had been swapped.

http://www.dieselpowermag.com/featur...gal/index.html

no kidding

I'll put my 2 cents in;

If I knew what would be classic and vintage in the future, I would be buying them up now.

My point is that we can only guess. My father was a jeweler and a watchmaker. I can not count the 1,000's of Submariners I sold for him at about 500 each!
Wow, I wish I had them now. Nobody wanted them then. A friend of mine about 20 years ago, bought all the Pateks he could find. He is now VERY wealthy.
Nobody wanted those old watches then.

The point is that NO ONE knows the market. The classics will be what they will be. Most here will not be around to see what those will be.

Interesting. I had a brand-new 1990 Mustang, and when it was stolen from me 4 years later, the only things wrong with it were things that I'd done to it. It had nearly 90,000 miles on it (the first 10,000 were put on it on the Autobahn in Germany), and was still as reliable as a hammer, and quicker than when I first bought it, due to a few minor performance upgrades. My brother has an '88 that was owned by our dad, that has a quarter of a million miles on it and yes, it's falling apart, but it's been well-used and not well-cared for.

But your original point is valid - modern bikes will someday be "classics".

In 1953.

That is at least partly why I've been tempted (but not yet done it) to get my hands on a 70s vintage Hasselblad.

As to bikes, I'd guess that some of today's "artisan" frame-builders are turning out what will be future classics--good quality hand-built bikes that people will value for a long time.

I thought of a craigslist ad (for a 2000 Trek 5200) when this was first posted, but couldn't find it at the time. I just stumbled across it again and here is the salient excerpt:

Wonder if the hobbyist will have the resources to deal with resin degradation the same way we deal with rust today.

They already do.
The surfers do. Ultra light and homebuilt aircraft enthusiasts do. What your dealing with is really no more complex than fiberglass in some respects.
Of course a completely broken CF tube is no more repairable than a folded steel tube.

Sure modern bikes will be classics someday. My choice is the Trek 5500


http://i553.photobucket.com/albums/j...s/lancebig.jpg

Trek made tons of them. But IMO they're still destined to be a future classic. For all you car guys out there remember Ford made more Mustangs between the 1964 1/2 model year and 1966 than any other car to date. Look at how much they're bringing now. Something doesn't have to limited in it's initial production to be valuable.

Lance made Trek in general and the 5500 in particular an instant sensation.

So will steel frames eventually go out of production? If so, eventually, our steel-bending skills will become obsolete. I built a wheel today and pondered whether that skill will become obsolete.

Two American brands likely to be future classics are Merlin (pre Saucony) and Seven Cycles.

Brad

PS I almost forgot... Independant Fabrication. I think there's a lot to entice someone twenty years from now to build a now current bike.

I'm thinking that made in the USA Cannondales will some day be collectible. They had a small price spike when Cannondale announced overseas production but things seem to have settled down. I believe they will achieve the "pre Trek Klein" status someday.

cs1, As a BIG fan of C'Dale I have to agree, I just didn't want to write a prejudiced post.

When Cannondale nearly went bankrupt following their motorcycle flop and later merged with two or three other bicycle brands, I wondered at the time if a switch to an overseas cheap labor country would be far off.

Brad

I would definitely say Merlins SHOULD be classics, but I'm not sure if they will be. I think the thing that might prevent it is the press-in BB...they'll be a pain in the arse to work with.

Than again, that hasn't stopped people from liking French stuff.

The fact that they all look PERFECT might also hurt their value...older bikes in good shape are incredibly valuable because most have patina. With titanium, there is no patina. They all look perfect.

French bikes weren't a pain to work on until parts to fit them became rare. You used to be able to get most parts in English, French, and Italian threads.

I once had a wheel with a French freewheel thread. Those were rare. It was my commuter bike. I was living in Boston. Snow fell, and I didn't ride for a few days. Stupidly, I left my bike locked up on the street in front of my building for a few nights. I came out one morning, and someone had taken bike tools to the bike to steal the cranks and freewheel. I was angry, but I got a little evil pleasure out of knowing that installing that freewheel would ruin the thief's wheel.

I was working in a bike shop, so replacing the stolen parts wasn't a big deal.

I think the flood of the interchangeable Chinese bikes ("ICBs") will limit collectability. But USA built Cannondales (+1), USA built Treks, Italian built just about anything, Ti road bikes, etc., will become very collectable.

Could you explain this? I don't follow.

I think he's saying that all of the Taiwan mass produced bikes have a sameness about them...like cookie cutter'ish...and that will limit their future collectibility. I understand what he's saying, but I'm not sure he's right...people once thought that way about Japanese bikes. When Taiwan's exchange rate improves, and the labor prices rise...we'll start building somewhere else and people might pine for the days of Taiwanese built bikes.

I think the difference is that during the Japanese period, there were other options...where as now nearly everything, even Japanese bikes, are Taiwan.

I would assume that he's referring to the Chinese manufactured "catalogue" bikes out there. The ones with the identical frames, but different paint etc. for different brands. Not too collectible, but often very functional bikes.

Kind of like the Norco/Nishiki's, etc. from Japan in the 80's - same frame, different branding.

edit: KAS types faster than I do! And I've heard that it's mainland China that does the best CF manufacturing these days - Taiwan's been left in the dust as the mainland invests in more modern manufacturing capabilities.

I just built up my early 90's Dean Colonel titanium mountain frame. Made in the USA is stamped on the BB shell. I'm not letting this one go :)