I think we've hit the ceiling on a lot of them, remember, that $5,000 bike only cost $750 when it was new.

when will the speculative vintage bike bubble pop? any of you guys dealing in c&v credit default swaps?

Mavic C&V components definitely went up to almost double in the last couple or three years.....Only thing I can think of that didn't were their 1st gen clipless pedals made by Look, which never really held up well finish-wise and were boat anchors compared to even their Look cousins.

Chombi

My wife figured this out a while ago and never bugs me about my little buy/sell/help hobby, anymore. And though not solid gold, this gold plated CCM Flyer comes pretty close, in my opinion...

http://www.bikeforums.net/attachment...4&d=1354057948

On the other hand, I just love riding my old "lumps of coal".....

Chombi

You'll never make it thru Detroit. Better to take them thru Buffalo.

All this is why I'm buying my pretty Kleins now, rather than 10-15 years from now :)

I wonder if a future Klien Kollaspse would be as devastating as the Beany Baby Bubble Bust of '99?

I think pre-Trek Kleins, while already discovered, are a terrific investment, particularly any model with the way cool paint job (I had one that was very surprisingly VERY plain).

Kleins are one of those few brands that I will pick up any style (MTB, road bike, whatever), in any size, and will come up on the price, if the paint is pristine.

Do a search on ebay, sort by highest price first, and see what some of their nicer MTBs are going for.

Only read the first page of comments before adding my own, but it's not just the vintage bikes that have driven everything up. There's halo bikes that cost $12K to $15K and make other high prices more plausible. There's also the fact that everything in general has gone up. I got an aluminum Ultrgra Bianchi in 1999 for $1700 ($1900 msrp) and now an Ultegra bike is minimally 3k.

I think so long as cycling becomes more popular as a whole, there will be a greater number of people looking back at its history and looking to purchase classic bikes of all styles and eras. I cordially disagree with Miamijim; as the sport becomes more main stream, there will be a greater number of people, including well heeled people, competing for our Cinellis. Additionally, adjusting for inflation, that $750 bike cost quite a bit and few people were buying them.

Things like 80s Japanese bikes, Raleigh Competitions and other relatively common, high quality bikes, are going to increase in value based on their comparative value to current steel bikes. In other words, those $300 Shimano 600 level bikes may very well increase to $400 - $450 (and they already are creeping) because that is still such a good value when compared to a base level $800 bike purchased new.

The more high dollar bikes are going to continue to creep up as an expanding base equates to more interest. I don't think the Confentes and Rene Herse level bikes have peaked.

This thread is kind of depressing.

I agree - we should meet up for a beer this weekend to cheer you up (and coincidentally exchange the tire).

I appreciate your objection, and I expected that someone would come out and slice through my rhetoric. Specifics can cut through rhetoric like a hot saw through snow.

I wanted make the point that someday we interested parties may have to make do with erzatz stuff ... or wannabe-custom-made steel bicycle frames. The market will simply eliminate most of us on this forum. It will not happen this week ... nor next month. But, it could happen by increments.

Yes ... I've seen Shelby Cobra repos. And most laughably ... phony plastic Ferraris. Yes, I do appreciate the difference: to me, even Shelby Cobras do not hold the mystique of the AC Bristol, which was the basis of the original Shelby. So I get your point exactly and agree with you

Again point taken. But AFAIK the culture is much more diversified than most people take it to be. Although their written kanji is consistent throughout the nation, the massive population does not evenly share the same language — although Mandarin has steadily become more pervasive. As for what they have had in their culture, and what they may do vis a vis importing culture in the future ... one might only have to look no further than their current preoccupation and consumption of vintage wines. Specific to bicycles, my last glance at the subject revealed that groups of people were meeting on the weekends to regard and admire each other's lightweight sports/transport bikes such as the Raleighs. Today, this may be a weekend feature in Beijing, but one would expect that soon it will also be happening in Shanghai and then in cities all across China.

I've not been to China myself, but colleagues of mine here in Japan have. I'm astonished in regards to what they tell me about how fast things are changing there. If C&V velo becomes a fad among the Chinese, I believe some interesting things will develop.

I have been urged to re-coat, re-decal, then build and market Ironman bikes with nice used modern components. It was not worth considering 2 years ago, and seems worth a thought now. Perhaps in two years, it will be something I should have done, instead of "did." I'll probably start with 4-5 and see how it goes. I'm sure if it works out, then my supply will increase in value/cost. At that point, I may have to stop the experiment, but you never know. I just don't know how other, lesser-known models would sell, or even if the Ironman bikes will, but it's certainly worth a try.

It only seems worth a try given current trends. I simply think a re-done Ironman with mid-level components will be a better bike than the entry-level steel bike, or even the retro steel bikes that are out there in the price range I'm hoping for.

I'm not thinking of $2000 C&V bikes. I'm thinking of $1000 re-done C&V bikes with modern components. Then taking them to Toronto, maybe through Buffalo.

There really appear to be a couple different C&V markets.

There is the high end 98% condition bikes of a high pedigree sporting the best components of a certain time. These are the roadie collector bikes. These people probably have other riders, and these are for show or hanging on the wall. This value will probably continue to increase as the boomers slow down and want to "appreciate things".

There is the functional C&V market, where the bikes are appreciated in terms of performance and value on those terms only. This is the fuel for the retro roadies with shimergo/STI/etc. An extra 2 lbs in the frame, while keeping an awesome steel ride, and modern wheels and shifters, is a worthy endeavor. The touring side of things is also a participant in this C&V market, not many new tourers (in terms of selection) vs old

Not sure what that means, but supply has sure slowed down lately. Prices for mid level bikes are increasing, from what I can tell.

Certainly not for all of them......
There has been a drastic drop in value of Peugeot mid level bikes in the last year or so. PSN, PSV and PGNs have seen their selling prices go down by about a hundred bucks since two years ago. PSVs used to be snatched up quickly at ebay will now tend to languish and sell for dropped reserved prices after a few auction tries by the sellers.
I have not noticed it, but which brands/models have been rising in value lately??

Chombi

This is were I am surprised things have not really taken off. I prefer the ride qualities and aesthetics of lugged steel, but can't justify spending $2000-3000 bucks on a new custom frame. When weighting price and quality, vintage frames seem like the obvious choice to me. Classic old steel frames and modern components is the best of both worlds.

Put one of these on my wish list - $1400.00 but pretty pretty, in my opinion...

http://www.hilltop-tw.net/htcomimage...2011-Brown.jpg

all you have to do is price a new comparable bike, and you'll have your answer.

For sport touring, I agree. For loaded touring I do not.

This makes me feel old.... and kind of teary-eyed.

All of this talk about the $2000 threshold. How many C&Vers have crossed it? Or come close? How about a survey? Sounds like a good idea for a new thread. Any volunteers?

Gone past the $2000 mark? I could afford to, maybe, but the divorce would mean that I would have to sell the big bucks bike right away, anyway:-(

One other thing I might interject is that the small modern steel builders are getting more attention than they used to. Guys like Kirk, Zanconado, Sachs, IF, Winter bikes, Fast Boy Cycles, Strong are getting more press through NAHBS and with the huge surge in popularity in cyclocross. People want their bikes but I'm sure many are unable to pony up $3k for a frame or a place in the queue for a Sachs for example.
So they educate themselves further and turn more towards the vintage market. Then there's the simple fact that all this newish attention on steel bikes just increases demand for all steel bikes.