Will this Era be Vintage & Collectable?
#26
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My bets on future collectability are as follows:
Kestrel's early monocoque bikes, these were there in the beginning of the era.
Lugged carbon bikes, everything from relatively common Epics to Colnago c-59's.
Calfee's bikes, USA-made and with their unique build style (I own Carbonframes #20 ).
Bikes/frames that were the first to feature (or popularize) a particular feature, such as a tapered steerer, extended seat tube or modern disc brakes.
1st-year models with identifiable functional or cosmetic features which led to marketing success (Roubaix/Zertz for example)
Frames/bikes from companies that are small, but which go on to become highly successful.
Bikes that are particularly good-riding tend to be highly regarded, and also tend to get "used up" so become rarer to find in top condition.
1st 650B production mtb. Good luck naming it. This wheel size may take over!
Limited-production bikes (which of course tend to be of upper-end quality), rarity counts.
Bikes on which a top racing team was particularly successful, or on which a particular sprinter, climber, etc. was particularly successful/famous.
Over the last 65 years, we've moved toward bikes that are a bit lighter, have a greater number of gears, have integrated shifters and slightly more advanced everything else.
Dedicated self-powered bikes may become a much-smaller share of the market, sold as either sports competition models or as entry-level transportation, while bikes equipped to accept some degree of electric assist may become predominant, with suspension to handle higher speeds.
The first few versions of electric-shifted bikes were cool, but not as cool as the first bikes to completely hide all brake hoses and wiring.
I can also see bikes with on-the-fly cockpit adjustability perhaps becoming more common, as well as safety features that likely would seem extravagant from today's perspective.
One thing for sure is that as long as I'm wrenching and riding, I'll be keeping an eye out for good newer bikes with severely-depreciated used-bike prices attached.
The 1997 Calfee and 2004 Orbea I've bought recently are perfect examples.
These bikes both have extremely strong frames/forks that are not going to go "soft" in my lifetime.
This 2015 LOOK would be a really nice garage-sale find in 20years. Looks like an attacking cat/animal!
I had to wait 30 years to score this one for a good price:
And this one was had cheap after only about 12 years of depreciation:
Kestrel's early monocoque bikes, these were there in the beginning of the era.
Lugged carbon bikes, everything from relatively common Epics to Colnago c-59's.
Calfee's bikes, USA-made and with their unique build style (I own Carbonframes #20 ).
Bikes/frames that were the first to feature (or popularize) a particular feature, such as a tapered steerer, extended seat tube or modern disc brakes.
1st-year models with identifiable functional or cosmetic features which led to marketing success (Roubaix/Zertz for example)
Frames/bikes from companies that are small, but which go on to become highly successful.
Bikes that are particularly good-riding tend to be highly regarded, and also tend to get "used up" so become rarer to find in top condition.
1st 650B production mtb. Good luck naming it. This wheel size may take over!
Limited-production bikes (which of course tend to be of upper-end quality), rarity counts.
Bikes on which a top racing team was particularly successful, or on which a particular sprinter, climber, etc. was particularly successful/famous.
Over the last 65 years, we've moved toward bikes that are a bit lighter, have a greater number of gears, have integrated shifters and slightly more advanced everything else.
Dedicated self-powered bikes may become a much-smaller share of the market, sold as either sports competition models or as entry-level transportation, while bikes equipped to accept some degree of electric assist may become predominant, with suspension to handle higher speeds.
The first few versions of electric-shifted bikes were cool, but not as cool as the first bikes to completely hide all brake hoses and wiring.
I can also see bikes with on-the-fly cockpit adjustability perhaps becoming more common, as well as safety features that likely would seem extravagant from today's perspective.
One thing for sure is that as long as I'm wrenching and riding, I'll be keeping an eye out for good newer bikes with severely-depreciated used-bike prices attached.
The 1997 Calfee and 2004 Orbea I've bought recently are perfect examples.
These bikes both have extremely strong frames/forks that are not going to go "soft" in my lifetime.
This 2015 LOOK would be a really nice garage-sale find in 20years. Looks like an attacking cat/animal!
I had to wait 30 years to score this one for a good price:
And this one was had cheap after only about 12 years of depreciation:
Last edited by dddd; 08-29-14 at 06:26 PM.
#27
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Maybe not.
But who wouldn't want one of these beasts in twenty years?
I know I would, provided I can still ride at the age of 76.
A Moots IMBA trail bike with room for your chain saw and beer.
Everyone knows beer and chainsaws are a great mix.
But who wouldn't want one of these beasts in twenty years?
I know I would, provided I can still ride at the age of 76.
A Moots IMBA trail bike with room for your chain saw and beer.
Everyone knows beer and chainsaws are a great mix.
#28
Bicyclerider4life
Almost no bikes will ever be worth more than they were new adjusting for inflation, and fewer still would represent even a modest 4% annual return over 40 years. If you are looking at a new bike as an investment I suggest you change strategies. Valuable bikes were costly new as well. I can think of almost no bikes worth more now then new. Only a small few, like Confente, are more valued now.
Buy a bike because you like it...not for its possible value in 2030. If you want an investment I'd look at a ROTH IRA, not a bike.
Buy a bike because you like it...not for its possible value in 2030. If you want an investment I'd look at a ROTH IRA, not a bike.
All these 'cruiser' type and "kid's bikes" are selling for MUCH more than they did when new. Maybe the ones to buy as an "investment" are the 29'er cruiser bikes? and aluminum cantilever frame Schwinn cruisers?
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#29
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Schwinn Stingray (originals; not the OTC Stingray) Stingray knock-offs like the Huffy Rail, and what ever it was Raleigh called their muscle bike, Any original "tank" bike - Schwinn, Huffy (especially the "Radio Bicycle), Hawthorn, ... I forget who made it, but the "Space Liner" fiberglass framed 'cruiser' of the late 50's/early 60's is another rare and sought after bike.
All these 'cruiser' type and "kid's bikes" are selling for MUCH more than they did when new. Maybe the ones to buy as an "investment" are the 29'er cruiser bikes? and aluminum cantilever frame Schwinn cruisers?
All these 'cruiser' type and "kid's bikes" are selling for MUCH more than they did when new. Maybe the ones to buy as an "investment" are the 29'er cruiser bikes? and aluminum cantilever frame Schwinn cruisers?
In 1969 a Schwinn Stingray was $87. I'm not THAT familiar with their selling prices (as opposed to asking prices, which I think are rarely achieved), but let's call it around $1000. That's under a 6% annual return. Not terrible...but as one of the few examples of a bike worth more than new, it's still hardly a great investment. Factor in sales tax and it drops further.
Inflation on $87 in 69' means it's close to $600 today. Not that far off of their value. Again, ignoring sales tax.
i actually would consider these more toys than bikes, and I think their market is more along the lines of toy collectors. If you were investing in toys, many others would have been better choices.
The Bowden Spaceliner has is obviously one of the rare nostalgia appreciators. I am not sure those tank bikes are going to hold value in the future...I don't think people my age care about them.
My pick for future classics -
Ti Merlins...at some point people are going to want the best of the era. That's the ti Merlin.
Later 80s higher end production rigid MTBs...the Apex, 970s, etc.
Later Waterford Paramounts...the 753s.
pre-trek Lemonds
trek y foils
Klein mantra
serotta dks
Last edited by KonAaron Snake; 08-29-14 at 10:33 PM.
#30
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In terms of "investment", it's not the MSRP price at the new-retail level that should be considered imo.
The investment opportunity with these old bikes is buying them when they are being sold used, for a small fraction of their original price, then holding them until they go back up in price, perhaps as high or higher than their original price.
The key pieces of information we have to guess at is 1) when will the price be lowest, and 2) which bikes are then likely to escalate in value within what we consider as a reasonable amount of time, with respect to competing investment opportunities.
The investment opportunity with these old bikes is buying them when they are being sold used, for a small fraction of their original price, then holding them until they go back up in price, perhaps as high or higher than their original price.
The key pieces of information we have to guess at is 1) when will the price be lowest, and 2) which bikes are then likely to escalate in value within what we consider as a reasonable amount of time, with respect to competing investment opportunities.
#33
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In terms of "investment", it's not the MSRP price at the new-retail level that should be considered imo.
The investment opportunity with these old bikes is buying them when they are being sold used, for a small fraction of their original price, then holding them until they go back up in price, perhaps as high or higher than their original price.
The key pieces of information we have to guess at is 1) when will the price be lowest, and 2) which bikes are then likely to escalate in value within what we consider as a reasonable amount of time, with respect to competing investment opportunities.
The investment opportunity with these old bikes is buying them when they are being sold used, for a small fraction of their original price, then holding them until they go back up in price, perhaps as high or higher than their original price.
The key pieces of information we have to guess at is 1) when will the price be lowest, and 2) which bikes are then likely to escalate in value within what we consider as a reasonable amount of time, with respect to competing investment opportunities.
Guessing which bikes are future classics is fun, but I draw the line at thinking about it as an investment. Bikes are something to be enjoyed...the gains and losses are so relatively small that you just buy what you like.
#34
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I don't think that many understand the concept of this thread.
What bikes will be remembered from these times in the industry, and will they be looked upon as desirable due to their representation of the time (how bikes were in the 2010's). It seems late 70's and early 80's bikes are what people like as classic rides these days because of their lugged construction and fine Reynolds or Columbus steels. Most 90's bikes don't seem to have that desire.
Perhaps the Cannondale SuperSIX will be what people want because kevlar-glass bikes of the future don't give a 'ride' like carbon bikes of this decade. I doubt Giant Defys will be something ridden as a sexy restored roadie.
What bikes will be remembered from these times in the industry, and will they be looked upon as desirable due to their representation of the time (how bikes were in the 2010's). It seems late 70's and early 80's bikes are what people like as classic rides these days because of their lugged construction and fine Reynolds or Columbus steels. Most 90's bikes don't seem to have that desire.
Perhaps the Cannondale SuperSIX will be what people want because kevlar-glass bikes of the future don't give a 'ride' like carbon bikes of this decade. I doubt Giant Defys will be something ridden as a sexy restored roadie.
I personally think Soma, Surly, Rivendell are producing bikes that many folks will consider collectable in the future. Not to mention the large number of smaller custom builders. In the road bike realm, I think of Litespeed, Waterford, and of course Serotta. And yes, even some of the carbon wonders of today will surly be desired
#35
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Kind of an odd question to ask on a forum devoted to bikes that are pretty much already 20 years old and older.
Perhaps, if I was the kind of guy checking out kindergarteners for my future wife, I could answer that.
I'm already seeing a slight trend toward the early Kestrels as "classic" carbon, mainly because the genre is still being established.
Some early Trek OCLV's will be hot, already are. Where there's a niche, there's a market.
Chris Klein's frames are starting to gain some steam for older aluminum, and the Cannondale fans have always been around.
I'm pretty sure what's collectible now will still be collectible in 20-40 years, since we'll die and the bikes will not.
I'd buy what's collectible now, and hope your market doesn't die with the present fans. Or get a Wraith Fabrications frameset.
Current young cyclists did not grow up wanting the Pin' that Big Mig rode. They are more impressed with performance than art.
There are exceptions, but I think we represent a larger fraction of the past market than younger cyclists now who favor steel.
Fine craftsmanship in metal is a whole different animal than quality control processes in modern carbon.
As the frame and components tend towards artistry, I think the collectable nature may increase.
As everyone knows, art is in the eye of the beholder, or the lemmings if a certain beholder has a following.
I highly doubt the Tarmacs and Madones of today will be treated any differently than the myriad of alumi-carbon models made available from about 1995 until now...
As an example, my brother-in-law bought a 1953 Corvette in 1963, with only half a nod towards "investment." Then he bought a '57, and then a '63. When the values went through the roof, he "predicted" that the 1982 model, the last of the body style of that era, would be a good investment, and he sold his '72 big block to buy a new one. It didn't work out very well.
Plus, who knows if ISIS will let us ride bikes?
Perhaps, if I was the kind of guy checking out kindergarteners for my future wife, I could answer that.
I'm already seeing a slight trend toward the early Kestrels as "classic" carbon, mainly because the genre is still being established.
Some early Trek OCLV's will be hot, already are. Where there's a niche, there's a market.
Chris Klein's frames are starting to gain some steam for older aluminum, and the Cannondale fans have always been around.
I'm pretty sure what's collectible now will still be collectible in 20-40 years, since we'll die and the bikes will not.
I'd buy what's collectible now, and hope your market doesn't die with the present fans. Or get a Wraith Fabrications frameset.
Current young cyclists did not grow up wanting the Pin' that Big Mig rode. They are more impressed with performance than art.
There are exceptions, but I think we represent a larger fraction of the past market than younger cyclists now who favor steel.
Fine craftsmanship in metal is a whole different animal than quality control processes in modern carbon.
As the frame and components tend towards artistry, I think the collectable nature may increase.
As everyone knows, art is in the eye of the beholder, or the lemmings if a certain beholder has a following.
I highly doubt the Tarmacs and Madones of today will be treated any differently than the myriad of alumi-carbon models made available from about 1995 until now...
As an example, my brother-in-law bought a 1953 Corvette in 1963, with only half a nod towards "investment." Then he bought a '57, and then a '63. When the values went through the roof, he "predicted" that the 1982 model, the last of the body style of that era, would be a good investment, and he sold his '72 big block to buy a new one. It didn't work out very well.
Plus, who knows if ISIS will let us ride bikes?
Last edited by RobbieTunes; 08-30-14 at 09:06 AM.
#36
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Depends on what bikes you consider classic / vintage. If you want to talk strictly road bikes, that's ok, it's your thread, but there's more to classic & vintage bikes than the classic road racing machines of yesteryear...and there's more to current production bikes than Trek Madones and Specialized Tarmacs.
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.... they only dip into the realm of investment conversation when the better half questions why I've amassed so many of them. "You can only ride one of them at a time", she likes to remind me.
#38
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You'd need to add a g*n rack to make it perfect.
Last edited by dweenk; 08-30-14 at 09:42 AM. Reason: spelling
#41
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#42
~>~
Some people will look back with fondness on the old "production line" machines of this era before bespoke bicycles were made to order for each rider based on body scans, performance data downloads and individual nuance'.
Imagine riding a bike that wasn't actually made specifically for you in every particular?
How quaint........
-Bandera
Imagine riding a bike that wasn't actually made specifically for you in every particular?
How quaint........
-Bandera
#43
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I guess I'm missing it, but for something to be vintage and collectible, does it need to be worth a bunch of money and be an investment?
I guess my idea of something being vintage and collectible is something that is old tech and still desired by many to be used and ridden. I don't really think of bikes as a monetary investment...more like an investment in your health and well being.
I guess my idea of something being vintage and collectible is something that is old tech and still desired by many to be used and ridden. I don't really think of bikes as a monetary investment...more like an investment in your health and well being.
#44
Senior Member
The trouble with forecasting future collectables is that as soon as someone makes that prediction, everyone will buy one and put it away. Thirty years from now there will lots of mint condition whatevers available and the market for them will be zero. You see so many things, gunz, dolls, toys, etc. that are marketed as "collectors editions" that are basically worthless in the future.
Find something of top quality but not rare that will be well used/abused by most people; in the future if you keep it in top condition it may become collectable.
Find something of top quality but not rare that will be well used/abused by most people; in the future if you keep it in top condition it may become collectable.
#45
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I think you'll find that there's a relationship between the ages of the bikes and those of the owners. We generally tend to want the stuff that we remember fondly from our youth. Come back in twenty years to find that bike from the late nineties and early noughties are really popular.
#46
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I don't think that theory works. There has to be someone to want them. For kids twenty years older than me, the Schwinn Stingray was really cool, and then a few years later those kids drove the bike boom. For me, born in '77, anything with a banana seat reads "girl bike" and BMX and skateboards were cool. On the adult bike side, the average US citizen today probably owns a mountain bike. His perception of racing is all about Lance and doping. They might remember Lemond or the Olympic team and their funny bikes. The carbon fiber bikes are astonishingly expensive making them seem like a terrible value, and the extensive market segmentation means there is no marquee. Who will be nostalgic for them?
#47
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I don't think that theory works. There has to be someone to want them. For kids twenty years older than me, the Schwinn Stingray was really cool, and then a few years later those kids drove the bike boom. For me, born in '77, anything with a banana seat reads "girl bike" and BMX and skateboards were cool. On the adult bike side, the average US citizen today probably owns a mountain bike. His perception of racing is all about Lance and doping. They might remember Lemond or the Olympic team and their funny bikes. The carbon fiber bikes are astonishingly expensive making them seem like a terrible value, and the extensive market segmentation means there is no marquee. Who will be nostalgic for them?
Second, anything that is "collectable" based on nostalgia is going to crap one day and I would never call it collectable. Maybe a fad at best. Real collectables are desirable because of great design and and innovation. "Recapturing" youth is fleeting at best, sad in many cases.
#48
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#49
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Fifty years from now we will all be riding Flying Pigeons. A lucky man has a new bike but most will be old and worn out. There will be no cars on the roads, except for those owned by the political elite and uber-wealthy. Still, the roads will be grid-locked with bike riders.
#50
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I will just keep riding my Puch!
I have seen so many carbon frames go sour after 4 years, the ones that survive will be rare!
I have seen so many carbon frames go sour after 4 years, the ones that survive will be rare!