Weather forecasts SUCK!
 

Especially weather.com. Maybe it's La Nina messing everything up, but every morning the weather channels say it's going to be scattered showers...60% chance of rain...etc etc...then by 10am it says sunny for a couple hours, then by 1pm it says evening showers...then it just never rains.

This morning, the weather said scattered thunderstorms a couple times during the day, so I opted not to ride to work. I have no problems with riding in the rain, but I didn't want my brand new bike sitting in a thunderstorm for most of the day...

It drizzled a little bit on my drive in, but now it's freakin' sunny and gorgeous outside! The thunderstorms won't hit until 10pm, but I'm sure by 10pm they'll have cancelled that prediction too....

Every time I look out the damn window, the bright blue sky is taunting me, as I'm sure it will when I have to hop in the damn car and DRIVE home...

UGH! I'm pissed! Does anyone else get screwed over by unreliable weather forecasts?

dude you live in chicago, you have to have learned by now!!! tom skilling needs a kick in the shins :(

that said, i skipped riding today as the weatherbug app told me i would have thunderstorms and 20mph winds NE. i dont mind the getting hit by lightning its the 20mph winds to work that had me sweating picturing it.
and guess what its sunny and beautiful :(

Same here. I didn't ride today due to an afterwork meeting, but I've gotten used to being able to change layers based on big changes in the weather.

These are the same guys who tell us that global warming is a big deal and what the weather is going to be like in 20 years.

J.

I usually just ride unless it's a heavy downpour when I'm ready to leave. The 'chance of' thing never stops me.

I use www.wunderground.com and have found them to be more accurate than some...

2009 was when I decided I wasn't going to pay any attention to weather forecasts. There were too many of these types of days where I regretted not riding. I actually kept track and I rode in the rain 15 time in 2009 and 10 times in 2010. I have yet to ride in the rain this year. Granted, I am not a daily rider, but I have gotten into a MWF schedule that I make, rain or shine from the middle of March through the end of November. I do also have indoor parking for my bike, so I don't care if it rains during the day. I decided that I was loosing too many days and I just needed to make a schedule and keep it. It has worked out pretty well so far.

Second the ride in the rain, and the recommendation for Weather Underground. Just go to the wundermap and you can pretty much figure out when you're going to get wet, how much you have to fight the wind, etc.

You have to learn to use web sites or apps with radar.

I live in Michigan, and I learned many years ago that forecasts are vague. Unless they're calling for 100% chance of torrential rain, it's just a guess. My first year commuting I'd drive if they said there was a chance for rain, but that meant I rode like one day a week, because in Michigan there's ALWAYS a chance of rain. So I gave up and just rode. Most days it was clear anyway, and when it rained, I got to like riding in the rain.

I was thinking the same thing. I didn't notice this last year, but this year, it seems to happen all the time. Especially for some reason, on Mondays. I missed like three mondays in a row before I decided to just ride. That's been three weeks now, including today & so far no rain. It is irritating to drive in to work & then watch the beautiful weather all day whielthinking about the drive home. Not sure what the deal is, but it definitely seems worse this year than normal.

what I don't get is how the percentages add up. It might say 30% chance of showers on monday, and then if you go to the detailed, it says something like 20% chance of showers in the morning and 20% chance of showers in the afternoon. And then if you go to the hourly it says 10% chance of showers every hour until 30% chance of showers in the afternoon. If you know how to add probabilities in series, it quickly becomes obvious that the hourly pops don't add up to the daily pop.

what I don't get is how the percentages add up. It might say 30% chance of showers on monday, and then if you go to the detailed, it says something like 20% chance of showers in the morning and 20% chance of showers in the afternoon. And then if you go to the hourly it says 10% chance of showers every hour until 30% chance of showers in the afternoon. If you know how to add probabilities in series, it quickly becomes obvious that the hourly pops don't add up to the daily pop.

I use a couple of online weather sites to get some idea of what to pull out for the next day's ride (I like to have everything ready to go for the morning to minimize stumbling around in the dark).
On occasion I will notice the actual conditions at 6-6:30 AM to be different than projected, and will make adjustments if need be.

Other than that, I try to ride every day regardless of weather (I have made some exceptions) unless I'm sick or have some other compelling reason to not ride.

Well it did rain briefly in Chicago-land... or it must have, since the ground was wet when I hit the road around 6am.

I'm pretty obsessive about checking weather forecasts mainly for wind direction, but I've learned that it's mostly pointless since there's almost ALWAYS a 5-10+ mph wind blowing from the SW in the AM and NW in the evening when I'm heading home...ahhh, Chicago "hills"... besides, the "pinch-indicator" around my mid-section tells me I'm riding regardless.

Just ride in all weather. I have a fair weather commuter and a "rain bike". The worst that happens is I err on the side of caution and ride the rain bike on a nice day. Still beats driving.

The weather forecasts here are pretty reliable, especially in the winter. They say it's going to rain, and it rains.

Seriously though, I use the forecast as a guide to tell me what gear to bring, not to tell me whether or not to ride, and I'm rarely disappointed.

I'm going to use this for the first time: HTFU.

I like this site
http://www.weathermodule.com/stat/LocalWx.aspx

Also, you're essentially expecting the weather people to predict the future, which is just absurd.

Over the past six months, I've realized "rain" on the East coast and "rain" on the West coast represents two entirely different weather phenomena. At home, "rain" usually equates to a big Pacific storm and it will be steady all day. Here "rain" encompasses any kind of precip ranging from drizzle to light showers to steady rain to downpours...usually drizzle/showers but people need their ginormous umbrellas regardless... Anyway. I usually just ride unless it's raining hard/steadily in the morning, and then I take the train only because getting to work with long completely wet hair is a bummer and I've yet to put a hair dryer in my desk, riding home in the rain I greatly enjoy...it cuts down on the number of clueless MUP users :)

I used to be a fair weather commuter until about 2-3 years ago. Now the only thing I rely on is looking out the window and checking the thermometer. I may also check the 5 day forecast to see if a specific day I need the rain gear, but I rarely do.

Ill commute in almost any weather. I have found a combination of weather underground and weather spark to be useful sites. Weather Underground gives the best current conditions, and Weather Spark is a good too for predictions.

I have Rain gear on hand all the time..

Weather underground is pretty good, I recommend them too. I rode home early last night after they were predicting big storms, and got home about a half hour before things got bad. I was glad I listened to the weather earlier, and really surprised at how accurate the predictions were for once.

Weather.com is about 50% accurate IMHO. Supposed to have severe thunderstorms today, 50% chance. Nothing happened. Once we had a 20% chance of showers, and it rained hard all day.

I think today's weathermen depend too much on computer models to predict what will happen.