inaccurate weather forecasts
 

I checked weather.com yesterday afternoon, and it said no rain today. Checked 6:30 this morning, said no rain.
Checked again at 8:30, said light showers at 9, cloudy 10-11, thunderstorm 12 then clear.

So I packed my bag and took out the bike, and was about to leave, and at 8:40 it was pouring down. Not light showers, full blown rain.

So I took the car, bummer.


Any advice on getting the most accurate weather predictions?

I feel the pain too. I know the weather can be hard to chase, but the accuracy is very bad. I have missed many good commuting days believing the forecast only to find it would have been beautiful. I have a very long commute and getting caught in something too nasty would not be good. I drove today due to the tornado watch. No sense risking that one.

I ride regardless of the weather and I just about always have gear with me to handle unexpected conditions. That said, I do keep an eye on the weather conditions. Recently I have been using Intellicast more that Weather.com. I like their radar map better. When I know precip is a possibility, the radar is what I look at as close as anything.

Our local forecasters totally suck at predicting rain. I understand that TV stations cover a broad area, but around here they tend to over-predict -- that is, they make it sound like the day is going to be a washout and we end up getting nothing or a few sprinkles. However, they sometimes blow it the other way as well, and we get rain when they are calling for clear weather. I don't know why they even bother with 5-day forecasts because they have enough problems just predicting the next day.

go here:

http://weatherspark.com

its never let me down, and is more detailed than any other service ive found

it gives you stats from multiple institutions as well

There is no such thing. My approach is something akin to "luck favors the prepared". Have the gear and the mindset to be able to handle nearly anything mother nature throws at you. Best way to achieve this is to sell your car, then you have to figure it out.

When have weather forecasts ever been accurate right down to the minute? If it might rain, and you don't want to ride in the rain, don't ride. If it might rain, and you don't mind riding in the rain, bring the gear you will need. That's just how it is.

I ride every day, regardless of weather, and either wear or carry full rain gear every day until summer. Basically that means rain pants and booties, rolled up in the bottom of my bag if not on my person. I'm already wearing the jacket, of course.

Use the weather radar

Weather.com even disagrees with itself. I have seen many times where their website is at odds with their smartphone app and not just a little off.

What's a little water? Just bring a towel and a change of clothes along. Plastic bags over the shoes do wonders.

I use the following:

http://www.wunderground.com/

http://www.intellicast.com/

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

http://www.weather.gov/

http://weatherspark.com/

I understand how much it sucks riding in the rain. Inclement weather is a large deterrent to commuting.

I check the weather forecast only to know wind speed and direction so I know when to leave for work. I ride in any conditions, winter, summer, rain or shine. The only thing that will force me in the car is if there's to much snow on the road, then the trip to work would take too long.

What burns me isn't that they're wrong, it's that they act like they were right all along! And WTF is a 10 day forecast for? It's ****ing useless. I want weatherman accountability! Stats! Rankings! Weathermen are on my scum of the earth list with parking cops, drug dealers and personal injury lawyers. They all brag about their amazing forecasting ablility, quad-doppler star wars technology radar, being first to report etc, when I can gather as much information by looking out my ****ing window and reading my barometer. **** weathermen.

/rant

Check multiple sites and apps, I figure the more sites that agree on something, the more accurate it must be. If there is a question of precip, I just pack a shell. Pretty easy to deal with really.

If it is pouring rain before I leave and looks like it will be set in for a while, I just drive if I have the car. If my bride needs it, I put on rain jacket and go get soaked. I put my clothes in a trash bag in my panniers and change up at the office. If it starts raining after I arrive at the office then all is fine, I don't care how wet I get going home.

the weather radar is your friend. forecasts can be, and often are, wrong. forecasting is a science, but it's also a best-guess at the same time.

the weather radar can also rarely have its own miscues as well, both false positives and false negatives (and those are almost exclusively when rain is very light and mostly inconsequential), but it's a profoundly better gauge of what's actually going on precipitation-wise compared to a forecast.





in general, i agree. however, i don't own a car, but i also live extremely close and work extremely close to train stations along the same line, and i don't own that train line, so i can't sell it or otherwise make it go away. there it is every morning when the weather is truly god-awful, like this mornings torrential storms, just begging me to take the easy way out, and so i do ;)

i checked the radar this morning when i woke up and saw a HUGE blob of red heading right for the city. choo-choo!

I step off the porch and see if I get Wet. :roflmao:

I can understand the OP's frustration...I check Weather.com and then check two of the local stations. I like mumonkan's Weatherspark suggestion, as it seems to pool several sources simultaneously. I think a lot of the frustration comes from knowing that people in cars are going to drive twice as bad in rainy conditions as they would in preferable conditions (at least they do here in SC), so the danger factor goes up a little and it makes one nervous. As many others have stated, it's better overall to simply be prepared for the weather contingency.

The darksky app for my iPhone is often accurate to the minute; it gives forecasts like: "Light rain starting in 20 minutes, stopping after 15 minutes." It really is amazing; it's something everyone should have.

The downside is that it only has that level of accuracy for the next hour - which is useful for biking to work, though, although less so for showing what's going to be happening at 3 in the afternoon.

Thanks, the weatherspark site looks useful.

I was ready for light rain, I have a softshell with good water resistance and softshell pants that dry quickly. If I really had to ride in the rain I have a poncho for that, but slippery roads and cars are not worth the risk. I am a fair-weather commuter, and part of that is a strong desire to stay alive despite the maniac drivers.

I like NOAA they are about the most accurate. Problem here in Pugetropolis is we have mountains to the west on the Olympic Peninsula and the weather systems will split and then converge somewhere over Puget sound. Normally it north of Seattle but it can be anywhere in the area. When that happens, well its a crapshoot. Might be raining cats and dogs in Seattle but Tacoma will see nothing. Our spring is notoriously fickle. I always have my rain gear so it doesn't matter if I get rained on. I would much rather ride home in the rain that ride to work. Since its cool here I can take a nice hot shower when I get home. NOAA.com and put in your zip code.

If its raining, I wear my waterproofs. if it is dry I carry my waterproofs.
The problem arises when the weather at the back of my house is different to that at the front. This happens more often than you might imagine and my old miniature dachshund was well aware of the phenomena. If it was raining at the front he would take another look to check at the back window.

That is too funny!