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-   -   Polar vortex (https://www.bikeforums.net/commuting/980565-polar-vortex.html)

JohnJ80 11-10-14 10:16 AM


Originally Posted by noglider (Post 17292638)
One of these days, I'd like to visit Minnesota. Maybe in January, to get the full experience. The winteriest place I've been so far is Vermont.

If you like winter, it's pretty great. 9 months of winter followed by 3 months of road construction.

Vermont gets there too.

J.

alan s 11-10-14 10:23 AM


Originally Posted by tjspiel (Post 17292923)
Well, we've nearly managed to completely drain the Aral Sea which was once the 4th largest lake in the world. We've created a huge dead zone (the size of Connecticut) where the Mississippi empties into the Gulf of Mexico. And if you take a look around you during your day today, you probably will not see anything that hasn't been shaped or touched in some way by humankind except for the stars in the sky. Even the wilderness areas in our country are "managed" and exist only because we allow them to.

We've been so disruptive to the environment for so long, we don't even notice it anymore.

Think of the global impact of plants and insects on the planet. Why are you singling out human beings? Everywhere I look, plants and insects have taken over!!!

And anyway, the topic was the climate, not the oceans, lakes and wilderness areas.

tjspiel 11-10-14 10:37 AM


Originally Posted by alan s (Post 17293049)
Think of the global impact of plants and insects on the planet. Why are you singling out human beings? Everywhere I look, plants and insects have taken over!!!

I agree. Take away the plants and the climate would be much different.


Originally Posted by alan s (Post 17293049)
And anyway, the topic was the climate, not the oceans, lakes and wilderness areas.

You stated the idea that our actions could alter climate was preposterous. My point was to take a look at the very visible impacts we've already had on the environment and maybe it wouldn't be so hard to believe we've made substantial impacts that are less visible.

lostarchitect 11-10-14 10:39 AM

Wow. A lot of people think they know better than 97% of scientists. We really need better public education in this country.

tjspiel 11-10-14 10:39 AM


Originally Posted by JohnJ80 (Post 17293017)
If you like winter, it's pretty great. 9 months of winter followed by 3 months of road construction.

Vermont gets there too.

J.

Modern technology has allowed us to enjoy road construction nearly year round.

alan s 11-10-14 10:51 AM


Originally Posted by lostarchitect (Post 17293107)
Wow. A lot of people think they know better than 97% of scientists. We really need better public education in this country.

97% of the scientists used to think the world was flat.

lostarchitect 11-10-14 10:59 AM


Originally Posted by alan s (Post 17293159)
97% of the scientists used to think the world was flat.

Not really, no. Perhaps long, long before "scientist" was a word, a majority of "learned men" thought so, but it has been known by the majority of said "learned men" since around the 3rd century BCE. Some unlearned people didn't understand the concept until much more recently, I suppose. It's probably a lot more like climate change than we'd suspect, in that way.

tjspiel 11-10-14 11:50 AM

Back to the original question:

Yes I did ride this morning but this afternoon is going to be a game time decision. I left for work later than usual because I had to drop my daughter off at school and even by that time the trails/roads were slushy and icy. It's supposed to keep snowing into tomorrow. As for the duration of the vortex I expect to ride on most days barring another large snow event.

I will confess to being caught a little flat footed. I did a cursory cleanup of my winter bike last spring but since it was my first year using ATF inside my Alfine, I wanted to pull the hub apart to make sure all was OK before riding on it anymore. So the bike sat all summer and there was quite a bit of work to be done to get it ready in time for this morning. I did manage, but I'm a little sad that I didn't get a few weeks of riding on it before the studs went on. Plus I still have some brake work to do.

Looking at the forecast for the next 10 days, it looks like winter is here to stay. By the time the effects of the vortex move off, it will be about the time I'd normally start riding the winter bike anyway.

kickstart 11-10-14 11:56 AM

Yes, the climate is changing, its always been changing.

Its the the conjecture about how our actions affect those changes, and its consequences that are in question, not that there's change.

TransitBiker 11-10-14 01:34 PM


Originally Posted by kickstart (Post 17293384)
Yes, the climate is changing, its always been changing.

Its the the conjecture about how our actions affect those changes, and its consequences that are in question, not that there's change.

They are only "in question" to the fossil fuel, petro-distillates & automobile industry, because they depend on doubt to avoid obsolescence & big change. Literally, its not a debate, its not a mystery, its not a puzzle. We are causing warming due to carbon dioxide & methane emissions. It's scientific fact. You can -believe- whatever you want to, but belief is not fact.

Look, I can go on and on forever with facts and just have a grand old time doing it, but if you choose to ignore the facts, then i can't help you. It sucks what is going on, it's costing human lives every day. If you think we are better off lubricating our own slide into oblivion with the lives of those lost from a storm or wildfire that may not have been otherwise, then not only can i not help you, you should feel ashamed.

WATCH: Marshallese poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner speaking at the Climate Summit - UN Climate Summit 2014

Things will change regardless of your fact refusing beliefs, and you will benefit from those changes, as will your children and their children. I will fight this fight all day and all night long, even if you think me a fool for doing so. I ask myself this often, and perhaps you might want to start: what do YOU care about? Why? Will it make a difference to improve something? Am i being the change i want to see happen in the world?

- Andy

lostarchitect 11-10-14 01:49 PM

Andy,
They will change their minds soon enough. Even now you see Fox and the GOP starting to soften their stances. Previously it was a liberal conspiracy, now it's "I'm not a scientist." Pretty soon it will be recognized, and the propaganda will change, easing the doubters into it, and people like the ones you're talking to in this thread will forget they ever denied that climate change was real. Why the delay on the right wing? I don't know. Maybe the existing power companies wanted time to develop green tech? Wish I knew.

alan s 11-10-14 01:52 PM


Originally Posted by TransitBiker (Post 17293826)
We are causing warming due to carbon dioxide & methane emissions.

Hey, many of have elevated CO2 and methane emissions when riding our bikes to work, but it's not fair to put so much blame on bike commuters.

kickstart 11-10-14 01:59 PM


Originally Posted by TransitBiker (Post 17293826)
They are only "in question" to the fossil fuel, petro-distillates & automobile industry, because they depend on doubt to avoid obsolescence & big change. Literally, its not a debate, its not a mystery, its not a puzzle. We are causing warming due to carbon dioxide & methane emissions. It's scientific fact. You can -believe- whatever you want to, but belief is not fact.

Look, I can go on and on forever with facts and just have a grand old time doing it, but if you choose to ignore the facts, then i can't help you. It sucks what is going on, it's costing human lives every day. If you think we are better off lubricating our own slide into oblivion with the lives of those lost from a storm or wildfire that may not have been otherwise, then not only can i not help you, you should feel ashamed.

WATCH: Marshallese poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner speaking at the Climate Summit - UN Climate Summit 2014

Things will change regardless of your fact refusing beliefs, and you will benefit from those changes, as will your children and their children. I will fight this fight all day and all night long, even if you think me a fool for doing so. I ask myself this often, and perhaps you might want to start: what do YOU care about? Why? Will it make a difference to improve something? Am i being the change i want to see happen in the world?

- Andy

That's the problem with this issue, those who question the extreme points of view that is all a hoax, or that its the imminent end of life as we know it are faced with the your're-with-us-or-against-us mentality, and accused of lacking intelligence or morality.

velocity 11-10-14 02:04 PM

Supposed to dip doen into the high 20's for one day here. I will ride in it because it will be dry. Cold yes but then I layer like a slayer...
V

achoo 11-10-14 02:16 PM


Originally Posted by TransitBiker (Post 17292716)
Terrified to live a full life, no, terrified to think about not having things like reliable running water.... yes.




Ah, but millions of years of records and proven connection between carbon gas in the atmosphere and atmospheric temperature is not at all conjecture. In fact, carbon dioxide being a known "greenhouse" gas for many, any years plus more than has ever been in the atmosphere ever at one time since humans have been here = warming. It's really not rocket science. :)

- ANdy

Indeed.

http://www.biocab.org/Geological_Timescale.jpg

Amazing. Today's CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a bit under 400 ppm. Which is about as low as it's EVER been - CO2 concentrations have been as high as 7,000 ppm in the past.

Here's another:

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Pa...s/image277.gif

NB that temperatures have little to do with atmospheric CO2 concentration.

achoo 11-10-14 02:20 PM

Also note that the average temperature of the planet today is something like 12C. The "average average" is probably about 20C or higher, with the most common average temperature about 25C.

In geological time frames, the Earth doesn't have polar icecaps.

noglider 11-10-14 02:21 PM


Originally Posted by alan s (Post 17293159)
97% of the scientists used to think the world was flat.

Therefore, what? Scientists are full of more bunk than the average person? Maybe I don't get your point, but on the face of it, it's distrusting education and praising ignorance.

achoo 11-10-14 02:22 PM

And now...

:popcorn

no motor? 11-10-14 02:26 PM


Originally Posted by achoo (Post 17293979)
And now...

:popcorn

Quick, someone mention helmets use, which type of chain lube is the best, guns and Wallyworld.

Fishmonger 11-10-14 02:38 PM

I don't ride my bike to save the world. I do it because I enjoy it.

If the world is a little healthier because of me - awesome!

If I'm not making an ounce of difference because global warming is a hoax - awesome!

Shut up and ride! That's the only thing we can agree on, so go keep the peace. Ride.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go idle my car for 20 minutes so that my neighbors don't think I'm a weirdo.

achoo 11-10-14 02:45 PM


Originally Posted by lostarchitect (Post 17293107)
Wow. A lot of people think they know better than 97% of scientists. We really need better public education in this country.

Nobel Prize-winning scientist Ivar Giaever:


On 13 September 2011, though honored as a Fellow, Giaever resigned from the American Physical Society over its official position noting: "In the APS it is ok to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?"
Climatologist and member of the 2007 Nobel Prize-winning IPCC John Christy:


The warming numbers most commonly advanced are created by climate computer models built almost entirely by scientists who believe in catastrophic global warming. The rate of warming forecast by these models depends on many assumptions and engineering to replicate a complex world in tractable terms, such as how water vapor and clouds will react to the direct heat added by carbon dioxide or the rate of heat uptake, or absorption, by the oceans.

We might forgive these modelers if their forecasts had not been so consistently and spectacularly wrong. From the beginning of climate modeling in the 1980s, these forecasts have, on average, always overstated the degree to which the Earth is warming compared with what we see in the real climate.

For instance, in 1994 we published an article in the journal Nature showing that the actual global temperature trend was "one-quarter of the magnitude of climate model results." As the nearby graph shows, the disparity between the predicted temperature increases and real-world evidence has only grown in the past 20 years.
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0220095703.jpg

:popcorn:popcorn:popcorn

PaulRivers 11-10-14 02:48 PM


Originally Posted by achoo (Post 17287665)
Of course, just a few weeks ago there was this:

Feds: Don't expect winter to be polar vortex redux

This was hilarious. "NOAA didn't predict last winter's extremes in last year's winter forecast."

The local weather here in Minnesota has these predictions for the rest of the week:
Tues: 27 / 8
Wed: 25 / 13
Thur: 25 / 6
Friday: 23 / 6
Sat: 24 / 4
Sun: 18 / 4
Mon: 16 / 2
Tues: 17 / 6
Wed: 17 / 7

Apparently the average high / low here -
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx?location=USMN0503

Is 43 / 27.

The record lows are all around 0 degrees - 3, -1, -4, 0, 0, 1, -2, -5, -4...

So basically they're predicting temps right around the record setting coldest possible. Sigh.

achoo 11-10-14 02:52 PM

Renowned scientist Freeman Dyson:


I simply find that a lot of these claims that experts are making are absurd. Not that I know better, but I know a few things. My objections to the global warming propaganda are not so much over the technical facts, about which I do not know much, but it’s rather against the way those people behave and the kind of intolerance to criticism that a lot of them have.
:popcorn

tjspiel 11-10-14 02:53 PM


Originally Posted by achoo (Post 17293951)
Indeed.

http://www.biocab.org/Geological_Timescale.jpg

Amazing. Today's CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a bit under 400 ppm. Which is about as low as it's EVER been - CO2 concentrations have been as high as 7,000 ppm in the past.

Here's another:

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Pa...s/image277.gif

NB that temperatures have little to do with atmospheric CO2 concentration.

You might want to do a little research on Nasif Nahle before you take the above charts too seriously.

alan s 11-10-14 03:02 PM


Originally Posted by noglider (Post 17293972)
Therefore, what? Scientists are full of more bunk than the average person? Maybe I don't get your point, but on the face of it, it's distrusting education and praising ignorance.

Therefore, the general consensus can be wrong.

No one can prove there is global warming, global cooling or climate change taking place right now. Furthermore, even if you could prove it, no one can prove that human activity is the cause of it. Even if you could prove human activity is the cause of climate change, no one can prove that anything meaningful can be done to change it. To conclude, yes, the "chicken little scientists" are more full of bunk than the average person.


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