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Posting some info from another member re Coronovirus

 
Old 03-19-20, 07:30 PM
  #101  
Paul Barnard
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
I am thinking of starting a thread asking whether disc brakes or rim brakes are better for combating the virus.
It doesn't stick to titanium.
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Old 03-20-20, 06:50 AM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by wphamilton View Post
CDC is saying that. WHO and others don't go that far. It often comes down to: the Hospitals need the masks so don't hoard them, and you're probably not using it right anyway.

I'm not wearing one, but I have considerable doubt that it's true that masks won't help people at all who are not infected.
I don't doubt the masks might help prevent a healthy person from getting the virus a little bit, but they're not 100% effective against the virus. Sure, if you're in a crowded space and someone is coughing the mask might prevent their infected secretions from landing on your face, but I have a feeling people who were buying up and wearing the masks more likely have a false sense of security than they are protected against the virus. Your eyes are still exposed and viruses can get in through your tear ducts. You're far better off with the social distancing we're practicing plus frequent hand washing, because as you point out medical professionals desperately need the masks.

My sister, who owns a fabric store, has decided to start sewing masks and donating them to whoever actually needs them.
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Old 03-20-20, 06:54 AM
  #103  
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Originally Posted by Happy Feet View Post
What I am learning is that some people have their own internal scripts that can't be easily changed by facts. They want to believe, or not believe a certain thing and no amount of evidence will change that. When presented with facts they simply say they don't trust the source.

Why? I do not know.
Dunning-Kruger effect.
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Old 03-20-20, 07:02 AM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
I am seeing a stark contrast between Asia attitude and Western attitude. The Chinese people here in this part of Asia are all wearing simple surgerical mask when outside, because the govt here say it helps reduce the spread of disease and chance of catching it themselfs. We have been very effective in containing the virus so far. Same story in other East and Southeast Asia...where they effectively containing the virus. Because we took it seriously from the very beginning, and we do everything we can like have enough mask for everyone. We also have alot ofWesterners here, and I see alotof them refusing to wear mask in public and hanging out at bars for long period of time like its business as usual. very worrying.

The mask we the average citizen wear is the normal surgerical variety....not the N95 style. The govt here has been telling people they dont need N95 for day to day. N95 is reserved for medical professionals.

The conventionla wisdom here in Asia is that even a simple cloth mask is much better than nothing. it will stop you from touch your face with your hands, which is a huge way to transmit it.
Studies shown that people touching their own face every 3 minutes, and not even realize it.

If you buy a box of normal surgerical mask, you are not depriving medical workers of his or her mask.
because the type they use, the N95, is not the same as yours.

The situation in your country is quite different from ours. There is very clearly an acute shortage of all types of masks in the US.
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Old 03-20-20, 07:49 AM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by Milton Keynes View Post
I don't doubt the masks might help prevent a healthy person from getting the virus a little bit, but they're not 100% effective against the virus. Sure, if you're in a crowded space and someone is coughing the mask might prevent their infected secretions from landing on your face, but I have a feeling people who were buying up and wearing the masks more likely have a false sense of security than they are protected against the virus. Your eyes are still exposed and viruses can get in through your tear ducts. You're far better off with the social distancing we're practicing plus frequent hand washing, because as you point out medical professionals desperately need the masks.

My sister, who owns a fabric store, has decided to start sewing masks and donating them to whoever actually needs them.
Right, but that's not what the CDC and even some medical professionals are putting out. Sure, if you parse their message closely enough they stop short of actually declaring that masks are completely useless, but when they say "masks don't help you" and "no reason to wear them" everyone takes it that way. I know about the reasons why they do that. Regardless of those reasons, it is misguided and harmful to the public to spread false medical information. The more that correct facts are generally understood, the better off the public is.
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Old 03-20-20, 12:52 PM
  #106  
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Here's where it gets too far.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ace-masks.html

https://images.app.goo.gl/sWEQvy76WJ5Ewqcb9
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Old 03-20-20, 01:37 PM
  #107  
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I think this opinion piece in the NYT sums up pretty well the problems with the messaging around masks:

Why Telling People They Donít Need Masks Backfired

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Old 03-20-20, 02:12 PM
  #108  
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This is just my personal opinion ...I am beginning to wonder if all the governments around the world have gone way overboard with their extreme draconian response to this coronavirus. You can't just lock down an entire city or an entire country, some countries have gone so far as to impose a martial law... It seems that this virus is only deadly to older people with weak immune systems and people who already have serious health issues...For most people the symptoms of this virus are just like a very bad flu, they feel weak and miserable for 2-3 weeks and then they recover from it. Most people who get it don't die from it.
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Old 03-20-20, 02:52 PM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
This is just my personal opinion ...I am beginning to wonder if all the governments around the world have gone way overboard with their extreme draconian response to this coronavirus. You can't just lock down an entire city or an entire country, some countries have gone so far as to impose a martial law... It seems that this virus is only deadly to older people with weak immune systems and people who already have serious health issues...For most people the symptoms of this virus are just like a very bad flu, they feel weak and miserable for 2-3 weeks and then they recover from it. Most people who get it don't die from it.
That older person could be your mother. If you're not careful, you could catch it from some other young person who didn't care that much.
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Old 03-20-20, 02:58 PM
  #110  
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Four members of one NJ family have died and a couple others are in critical condition.
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Old 03-20-20, 03:58 PM
  #111  
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Italy banned jogging and all outdoor activities, here in USA some states and cities are issuing orders to lockdown...This is getting a little extreme, is martial law next ??
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Old 03-20-20, 05:39 PM
  #112  
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Short term pain. If this follows the 1918 trajectory it's at least 50 million dead with 5000 million infected. That's over just 2 years. Currently we are only seeing the tip of a potential iceberg unless it can be tamped down.

Italy had a 2019 population of 60.5 million. The same year USA had 329.5 million.
Italy has 4000 dead today with 47,000 infected. That equals a potential 21785 US dead for 255,600 infected if the rate stays the same.
And, once it's that wide spread the lids off.
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Old 03-20-20, 05:58 PM
  #113  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
It seems that this virus is only deadly to older people with weak immune systems and people who already have serious health issues...For most people the symptoms of this virus are just like a very bad flu, they feel weak and miserable for 2-3 weeks and then they recover from it. Most people who get it don't die from it.
The covid-19 virus is at least ten times more likely to kill you than the influenza virus, and just as contagious as influenza. The reason we do the social distancing and self-quarantine is to slow the rate of spread of the infection, so that the relatively small percentage of people who require intensive medical support do not hit our health care system all at once and overwhelm our ability to treat them.

Every year, there is an extensive campaign for people to get the influenza vaccine. This "flattens the curve" of influenza infections to a point where our health care system can handle it without running out of hospital beds or healthcare providers to treat patients. We have no such vaccination for covid-19. Social distancing and self-quarantine are difficult, and the effect on the economy is unfortunate. But they are currently the only tools we have to keep the number of serious cases to a level our health care system can accommodate.
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Old 03-20-20, 06:19 PM
  #114  
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Originally Posted by JohnDThompson View Post
The covid-19 virus is at least ten times more likely to kill you than the influenza virus, and just as contagious as influenza. The reason we do the social distancing and self-quarantine is to slow the rate of spread of the infection, so that the relatively small percentage of people who require intensive medical support do not hit our health care system all at once and overwhelm our ability to treat them.

Every year, there is an extensive campaign for people to get the influenza vaccine. This "flattens the curve" of influenza infections to a point where our health care system can handle it without running out of hospital beds or healthcare providers to treat patients. We have no such vaccination for covid-19. Social distancing and self-quarantine are difficult, and the effect on the economy is unfortunate. But they are currently the only tools we have to keep the number of serious cases to a level our health care system can accommodate.
Social distancing and self isolation is common sense and I practise both of them, no need for experts to tell me to stay home....My issue is with governments imposing draconian laws which put thousands of people out of work, destroy small businesses and prevent people from going out and living their normal lives....During the 2017-2018 flu season over 40 000 000 people got the flu and over 60 000 people died, why was there no hysteria and panic about it . Coronavirus is a very particular strain of virus that just happens to be a little tougher to fight but most people who get it don't die from it....Globally over 80 000 people have recovered from this coronavirus so far.
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Old 03-20-20, 06:20 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
This is just my personal opinion ...I am beginning to wonder if all the governments around the world have gone way overboard with their extreme draconian response to this coronavirus. You can't just lock down an entire city or an entire country, some countries have gone so far as to impose a martial law... It seems that this virus is only deadly to older people with weak immune systems and people who already have serious health issues...For most people the symptoms of this virus are just like a very bad flu, they feel weak and miserable for 2-3 weeks and then they recover from it. Most people who get it don't die from it.
Current estimates of the death toll in the US in the absence of strict mitigation measures is 1.1 to 2.2 million. Perhaps you don't think 2.2 million Americans dropping dead is a big deal as long as they are mostly older and weaker?

Older people and those with underlying health conditions can read. People need to think about that before they write that they are expendable. BTW, it kills MOSTLY the older and weaker, not ONLY the older and weaker, so you might lose some people that you think actually matter.

Yes you CAN lock down a city. China did it and they are the only ones in the world that appear to be actually winning against this.

Take a look at Italy: You cool with that happening where you are? And that is WITH the country as locked down as anyone in the Western world.
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Old 03-20-20, 06:25 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Social distancing and self isolation is common sense and I practise both of them, no need for experts to tell me to stay home....My issue is with governments imposing draconian laws which put thousands of people out of work, destroy small businesses and prevent people from going out and living their normal lives....During the 2017-2018 flu season over 40 000 000 people got the flu and over 60 000 people died, why was there no hysteria and panic about it . Coronavirus is a very particular strain of virus that just happens to be a little tougher to fight but most people who get it don't die from it....Globally over 80 000 people have recovered from this coronavirus so far.
We will be very lucky if only 60K people die from Covid-19 this year, even with the disruptive measures. We will be lucky of only 4 times that number die. Covid-19 is about 10 times as deadly as the seasonal flu under the best condition (functional healthcare system), about 30-40 times as deadly if the healthcare system is overwhelmed (which it will almost certainly be).
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Old 03-20-20, 06:47 PM
  #117  
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Originally Posted by Kapusta View Post

Yes you CAN lock down a city. China did it and they are the only ones in the world that appear to be actually winning against this.
Well, South Korea has done pretty well without locking anybody down.
Its test, test, test, track and isolate.
Too late to test like that now and that kind of tracking is a huge invasion of privacy.

Trade-offs.

Or you can just let people die.
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Old 03-20-20, 07:30 PM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Social distancing and self isolation is common sense and I practise both of them, no need for experts to tell me to stay home....My issue is with governments imposing draconian laws which put thousands of people out of work, destroy small businesses and prevent people from going out and living their normal lives....During the 2017-2018 flu season over 40 000 000 people got the flu and over 60 000 people died, why was there no hysteria and panic about it . Coronavirus is a very particular strain of virus that just happens to be a little tougher to fight but most people who get it don't die from it....Globally over 80 000 people have recovered from this coronavirus so far.
I'll just say this.

It's better if you don't get it, at least officially. (databases have a nasty habit of getting hacked)

I'm in agreement about the draconian aspects, its going to be a major disruption for anyone who isn't prepared.




Last edited by SHBR; 03-20-20 at 07:48 PM.
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Old 03-20-20, 08:01 PM
  #119  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Social distancing and self isolation is common sense and I practise both of them, no need for experts to tell me to stay home....My issue is with governments imposing draconian laws which put thousands of people out of work, destroy small businesses and prevent people from going out and living their normal lives....During the 2017-2018 flu season over 40 000 000 people got the flu and over 60 000 people died, why was there no hysteria and panic about it .
The government edicts are necessary because not everybody is as sensible as you. E.g. look at the crowds on the Florida beaches until the government closed them. And as I pointed out in my previous post, we have an established mechanism for "flattening the curve" with influenza to keep the infection rate within what our health care system can handle; we don't have that for covid-19, and that's why we must enforce social distancing and self-quarantine.

Even if only 3.4% of covid-19 infections are fatal, as our Senator Ron Johnson seems to think is acceptable, given our current population of about 330 million, that works out to nearly 10 million fatalities.

Last edited by JohnDThompson; 03-20-20 at 08:08 PM.
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Old 03-20-20, 09:07 PM
  #120  
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Johnny D,
My wife was in the pharmacy tonight and the bright yellow x's on the floor were for social distancing. So, if I am infected with something like sars or mers or some other viral infection should six feet be a safe distance? What happens when I sneeze in the six foot parameter? There is way to much over thinking going on here. I will practice safe distancing, but the going overboard is a bit much in my mind. Smiles, MH
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Old 03-20-20, 11:20 PM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
OK, I'll bite. Any actual virologists on this thread?
I've published on Coronaviruses, and I married a virologist. Does that count?
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Old 03-21-20, 04:20 AM
  #122  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I've published on Coronaviruses, and I married a virologist. Does that count?

I should've qualified that--are any of the people who are telling us whether or not it's aerosol virologists?

My guess is you know enough to know that making certainty statements while the data collection is still in its infancy is probably a really bad idea.


​​​I kind of feel like virologists and medical personnel are the RAF in the Battle of Britain right now. My best to your spouse.
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Old 03-21-20, 06:47 AM
  #123  
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It amazes me that this far in, people are still selfish and unthoughtful enough to still be complaining about "disruption."

I'd say losing 10 million Americans could be slightly disruptive. I bet the ones complaining are the ones who will get behind every funeral procession and honk and shout obscenities because they are being held up by a dead person.

The other really positive thing about those folks is their continuing insistence that it is just fine if people over 40 and people with health issues all die, because they are 35 and healthy---Yeah, screw everyone else, so long as I keep getting mine. So .... go kill your parents and grandparents, right? They are too old anyway. And if any of your kids have health issues? Kill them now, they are breathing air healthy people could be breathing.

This virus has really highlighted the lack of community and the lack of morality of some people.

This is the cartoon where people in one end of the lifeboat are feeling fine because the other end of the lifeboat is sinking first----just a total inability to grasp any picture bigger than their own immediate desires.

Hey, geniuses .... most doctors are over 40. So after they all die---which is fine, they are old---and this pandemic passes---and it will---and five years from now, when you are forty and need some medical attention which you cannot get ..... maybe Then you will realize that being a richard is an option, but not a good option?

This is a clear case of we all stand together or we all fall alone, and some people apparently think gravity is a scam.

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Old 03-21-20, 07:12 AM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post


This virus has really highlighted the lack of community and the lack of morality of some people.

This statement applies to all people who are hoarding insane amounts of food, hand sanitizers, toilet paper and over the counter cold/flu medication and pain relievers which will expire before they even have a chance to use them. These hoarders are stripping our grocery shelves bare, buying way more than they will ever need and preventing people with real needs from getting what they need. Another disturbing trend that I noticed which seems to happen mostly in the USA is the huge increase in the sales of ammo, firearms and weapons. It just shows the herd mentality of our society. If people are willing to use a weapon to decide who gets the last box of toilet paper from wall mart, then I am starting to loose faith in humanity.
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Old 03-21-20, 07:20 AM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Social distancing and self isolation is common sense and I practise both of them, no need for experts to tell me to stay home....My issue is with governments imposing draconian laws which put thousands of people out of work, destroy small businesses and prevent people from going out and living their normal lives....During the 2017-2018 flu season over 40 000 000 people got the flu and over 60 000 people died, why was there no hysteria and panic about it . Coronavirus is a very particular strain of virus that just happens to be a little tougher to fight but most people who get it don't die from it....Globally over 80 000 people have recovered from this coronavirus so far.
Well here's the thing.
Have you looked at what is happening in Italy? Hospitals in certain regions are completely overrun. There are not enough beds or ventilators to help every infected person requiring assistance. This means that people who could normally be treated are dying due to lack of care.
And that's also kinda the difficulty with the covid-19. It's serious enough to cause serious symptoms to an alarmingly high portion of the population and it's as infectious as the the flu if not more so. If the infection rates get our of control like in Italy, the healthcare system gets overrun and when that happens the rate that used to be the hospitalization rate suddenly becomes the new death rate as new patients cannot be admitted or old patients need to be taken off ventilators. Now even the hospitalization rate is still unkown, but it's a lot higher than the argued death rate.

The overstressing of the healthcare system also drains resourses from other areas of healthcare. Surgeries need to be postponed. Non essential care needs to be postponed which can result in complications. Even essential care might need be postponed as resources are going towards treating the epidemic.

So while you might not get the serious version (though it seems to be a bit of russian roulette with young folks who gets it bad and who doesn't), you better hope you also don't need any other type of care while the healthcare system is unavailable.
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