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-   -   The big Coronavirus question (https://www.bikeforums.net/coronavirus-covid-19/1196844-big-coronavirus-question.html)

alo 03-29-20 12:12 AM

The big Coronavirus question
 
With all that is being done about Coronavirus, it may be spreading to other people at a slower rate than it would if these measures weren't taken. But it does keep spreading, just at a slower rate.

I know some countries are claiming they have stopped it spreading. I question whether that is just clever propaganda.

Will the same number of people eventually be infected, with the precautions being taken just making it a slower process?

Will the same number of people die, just taking a little longer?

chewybrian 03-29-20 02:09 AM


Originally Posted by alo (Post 21388974)
Will the same number of people eventually be infected, with the precautions being taken just making it a slower process?

I think that is the idea, that we just slow the progress, but not really stop the end result of infections.


Originally Posted by alo (Post 21388974)
Will the same number of people die, just taking a little longer?

I think the theory is that by slowing down the process, we can keep the hospitals from overflowing. Perhaps we can keep people from dying for lack of access to a ventilator or an ICU bed. So, on that basis, it is possible that fewer people will die. Also, by stretching it out, it is possible that some people will not get it before a vaccine becomes available.

Stadjer 03-29-20 03:05 AM


Originally Posted by chewybrian (Post 21389012)
I think that is the idea, that we just slow the progress, but not really stop the end result of infections.

I think the theory is that by slowing down the process, we can keep the hospitals from overflowing. Perhaps we can keep people from dying for lack of access to a ventilator or an ICU bed. So, on that basis, it is possible that fewer people will die. Also, by stretching it out, it is possible that some people will not get it before a vaccine becomes available.

Yes, but there's a bit more to it. If the virus doesn't spread it will die, it needs to infect a person to stay alive. So after a time of social distancing there has to be very much less of the virus around. From that situation and with lots of tests beeing available you can target specific contagion spots and isolate the people connected to that spot or person. Managing the outbreak is extremely crude right now, if it gets much more precise it will be much less of burden to society and the economy. I assume that will have to be the long term strategy.

ahsposo 03-29-20 05:14 AM

God, this stuff is getting boring...

Tony P. 03-29-20 05:15 AM


Originally Posted by Stadjer (Post 21389031)
Yes, but there's a bit more to it. If the virus doesn't spread it will die, it needs to infect a person to stay alive. So after a time of social distancing there has to be very much less of the virus around..

I don't believe it's possible to eradicate almost any virus. For example, the poliovirus still exists although under 100 people get polio, worldwide. The reason Covid-19 can't be eradicated is that it is in nearly 200 countries and will travel around the world like the flu no matter what we do in the US. Rather, the approach is to find treatments to reduce the symptoms and a vaccine to protect people. However, like the flu Covid-19 is likely to change over time so outbreaks are likely to continue even with a vaccine.

Tony P. 03-29-20 05:21 AM


Originally Posted by ahsposo (Post 21389082)
God, this stuff is getting boring...

In case you didn't know, you don't have to click on a thread if you don't want to.

ahsposo 03-29-20 05:45 AM

But if I don't click on the thread, how will I know if it's boring or not?

Stadjer 03-29-20 07:56 AM


Originally Posted by Tony P. (Post 21389083)
I don't believe it's possible to eradicate almost any virus. For example, the poliovirus still exists although under 100 people get polio, worldwide. The reason Covid-19 can't be eradicated is that it is in nearly 200 countries and will travel around the world like the flu no matter what we do in the US. Rather, the approach is to find treatments to reduce the symptoms and a vaccine to protect people. However, like the flu Covid-19 is likely to change over time so outbreaks are likely to continue even with a vaccine.

What I meant is that individual Covid-19 virions (I had to look that up) can't survive for very long without a host, an infected person. So when social distancing is successful ther will be much less of the virus around, still some, but with a lot of testing you can identify where it's spreading again and stop it there. That means that life for most people can go back to normal again and only small pockets of people have to go in lock down and less and less when more people become immune.

genec 03-29-20 08:03 AM


Originally Posted by ahsposo (Post 21389106)
But if I don't click on the thread, how will I know if it's boring or not?

Read it, leave, never return. No comments required. Simple.

rm -rf 03-29-20 08:08 AM

Look at South Korea.
Massive testing, then tracing infected people's contacts with cell phone data, and following up with those people.
Face masks in public.
They got it under control.

We'll need way more testing, especially the quick result machines. Ramp up the medical facility beds, and get them the garments and masks that they need.
Seniors and people with compromised immune systems will still need to be extremely careful.

There will still be breakouts of virus infections, but we'll be able to stop it from exponential growth.


From the Washington Post. Link:

Our stepwise approach depends on our ability to aggregate and analyze data in real time. To strengthen our public-health surveillance system to account for the unprecedented spread of COVID-19, we need to harness the power of technology and drive additional resources to our state and local public-health departments, which are on the front lines of case identification and contact tracing. Finally, we must expand our investments in pharmaceutical research and development into COVID-19 and promote the rapid deployment of effective diagnostics, therapies, and eventually a vaccine.

Slow the Spread in Phase I. This is the current phase of response. The COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is currently growing, with community transmission occurring in every state. To slow the spread in this period,1 schools are closed across the country, workers are being asked to do their jobs from home when possible, community gathering spaces such as malls and gyms are closed, and restaurants are being asked to limit their services. These measures will need to be in place in each state until transmission has measurably slowed down and health infrastructure can be scaled up to safely manage the outbreak and care for the sick.

State-by-State Reopening in Phase II. Individual states can move to Phase II when they are able to safely diagnose, treat, and isolate COVID-19 cases and their contacts. During this phase, schools and businesses can reopen, and much of normal life can begin to resume in a phased approach. However, some physical distancing measures and limitations on gatherings will still need to be in place to prevent transmission from accelerating again. For older adults (those over age 60), those with underlying health conditions, and other populations at heightened risk from COVID-19, continuing to limit time in the community will be important.

Public hygiene will be sharply improved, and deep cleanings on shared spaces should become more routine. Shared surfaces will be more frequently sanitized, among other measures. In addition to case-based interventions that more actively identify and isolate people with the disease and their contacts, the public will initially be asked to limit gatherings, and people will initially be asked to wear fabric nonmedical face masks while in the community to reduce their risk of asymptomatic spread. Those who are sick will be asked to stay home and seek testing for COVID-19. Testing should become more widespread and routine as point-of-care diagnostics are fully deployed in doctors’ offices.

While we focus on state-by-state reopening of activities in a responsible manner and based on surveillance data, we note that states may move forward at a county or regional level if these conditions vary within the state and that coordination on reopening among states that share metropolitan regions will be necessary.

Establish Immune Protection and Lift Physical Distancing During Phase III. Physical distancing restrictions and other Phase II measures can be lifted when safe and effective tools for mitigating the risk of COVID-19 are available, including broad surveillance, therapeutics that can rescue patients with significant disease or prevent serious illness in those most at risk, or a safe and effective vaccine.

Hondo Gravel 03-29-20 09:48 AM

Trying to get facts from CNN, FOX, MSNBC is impossible.


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