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A serious read, regarding COVID projections. Forbes

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A serious read, regarding COVID projections. Forbes

Old 04-19-20, 06:15 AM
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genec
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A serious read, regarding COVID projections. Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershsh...em-so-low/amp/

Look, it's long, it delves into quite a bit of stastical math, comparisons of death rates and projections... and essentially shows that social distancing is working, and SHOULD NOT BE RELAXED.
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Old 04-19-20, 06:47 AM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershsh...em-so-low/amp/

Look, it's long, it delves into quite a bit of stastical math, comparisons of death rates and projections... and essentially shows that social distancing is working, and SHOULD NOT BE RELAXED.
I'm in full agreement on the need to continue social distancing and the potential if rules are relaxed. But I have a problem with applying any analysis evenly throughout the country. There's a big difference between New York and Wyoming and there's nothing wrong with having different rules in each state as long as those rules are based on science first.
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Old 04-19-20, 07:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
I'm in full agreement on the need to continue social distancing and the potential if rules are relaxed. But I have a problem with applying any analysis evenly throughout the country. There's a big difference between New York and Wyoming and there's nothing wrong with having different rules in each state as long as those rules are based on science first.
I tend to agree... the reality of social distancing is "built in" in places like Wyoming, based on population density. When your nearest neighbor is 50 miles away, and you go into town once a month, the chances of catching COVID19 are small... as long as the folks from say, NYC don't come out your way.

But then Wyoming, West Texas, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska are not exactly the manufacturing powerhouses of the nation that will refloat the economy.

But yeah, I do tend to agree... so just what is it you want to change, about the otherwise normal "social distancing" lifestyle of those folks living in sparsely populated areas?
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Old 04-19-20, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
I tend to agree... the reality of social distancing is "built in" in places like Wyoming, based on population density. When your nearest neighbor is 50 miles away, and you go into town once a month, the chances of catching COVID19 are small... as long as the folks from say, NYC don't come out your way.

But then Wyoming, West Texas, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska are not exactly the manufacturing powerhouses of the nation that will refloat the economy.

But yeah, I do tend to agree... so just what is it you want to change, about the otherwise normal "social distancing" lifestyle of those folks living in sparsely populated areas?
I assume you're asking me. I have no particular view on changing anything in Wyoming. I do have issues in Florida, for example, where relaxing social distancing seems to be based on obviously political considerations.
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Old 04-19-20, 07:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
I assume you're asking me. I have no particular view on changing anything in Wyoming. I do have issues in Florida, for example, where relaxing social distancing seems to be based on obviously political considerations.
And again we agree.

My earlier response was based on your question of "rules throughout the country." We really don't have such rules, the governors of each state are pretty much in charge... the federal response has been pretty weak.
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Old 04-19-20, 07:58 AM
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Here in Australia we've done really good generally, even in our big cities. But we have had a couple of hiccups. We've had a couple of hospitals that had to be evacuated in a rural area because Covid-19 got into the staff, rural hospitals often share specialist staff so when it got into one it got into the next nearest too. They ended up sending in the army to staff the hospital because the entire staff had to be quarantined and the entire district was put into a hard lockdown with roadblocks to check travel really was essential. Seems to be working, that area is starting to show signs that the cluster is under control. Guess the point is there are still vulnerabilities in rural areas like hospitals and essential services and it literally only takes one person to shut things down.
What has also helped is that the government have gone hard with income support for workers so they are willing to stay home. If a company keeps on staff, even if they don't have work to do and are sitting at home, the government gives the company A$1500 per fornight per worker to pay to the worker (equivalent to our minimum wage) If the worker is unemployed they get a government benefit of $1100 per fortnight. Plus there have been some industry based schemes as well. There are also mortgage repayment suspensions and rental suspensions and nobody can be evicted for non payment for 6 months. The view is that it's bad enough without chucking people or businesses out on the street, nobody benefits long term, not even the banks.
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Old 04-19-20, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
What has also helped is that the government have gone hard with income support for workers so they are willing to stay home. If a company keeps on staff, even if they don't have work to do and are sitting at home, the government gives the company A$1500 per fornight per worker to pay to the worker (equivalent to our minimum wage) If the worker is unemployed they get a government benefit of $1100 per fortnight. Plus there have been some industry based schemes as well. There are also mortgage repayment suspensions and rental suspensions and nobody can be evicted for non payment for 6 months. The view is that it's bad enough without chucking people or businesses out on the street, nobody benefits long term, not even the banks.
We need that kind of attitude everywhere.

And we absolutely need to stay on top of this thing as far as socially distancing ourselves. As bad as things are here in NYC right now, and it is BAD, it would/could have been worse. Much, much worse.
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Old 04-19-20, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Rage View Post
We need that kind of attitude everywhere.

And we absolutely need to stay on top of this thing as far as socially distancing ourselves. As bad as things are here in NYC right now, and it is BAD, it would/could have been worse. Much, much worse.
The weird thing is our government is right wing at the moment!
And this is from David Gonski, the Managing Director of ANZ, one of our biggest banks:Mr Gonski, who has long argued against "short-termism" among investors, stressed the bank's board needed to balance the needs of shareholders with those of the wider community, staff, and customers.
"Now some might say that at the moment, with some of the actions we are taking, shareholders in the short term may have to bear the cost and it is my job to act in the interests of shareholders," Mr Gonski told ANZ website Bluenotes.

"But to act in the long term interests of shareholders and I stress long term we must act in the interest of other stakeholders, of staff, of the community.

"In my view, to take a short term view in a crisis like this would be very dangerous. It is difficult to balance these stakeholders in a crisis but we must. Everybody is paying, unfortunately," he said.
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Old 04-19-20, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
And again we agree.

My earlier response was based on your question of "rules throughout the country." We really don't have such rules, the governors of each state are pretty much in charge... the federal response has been pretty weak.
Not trying to be difficult here but you're putting words in quotes which suggests I said them which I didn't. In fact, my words were quite different:
analysis evenly throughout the country
and
different rules in each state
I'm wrong here all the time so I'm very protective of the few times I'm OK.
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Old 04-19-20, 09:03 AM
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Good article - thanks!

There seems to be a divide between "wanting get back to work" and "wanting to do as I please ". Reopening beaches would not be my first choice to get the economy restarted.

I'm in Chicago and my wife relies on public transportation to get to her job. Here's a typical commute pic:



This is going to be a huge challenge to social distancing and will need to be figured out. The CTA can't keep the cars clean even in the best of times, so how are they going to do it now?
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Old 04-19-20, 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
The weird thing is our government is right wing at the moment!
And this is from David Gonski, the Managing Director of ANZ, one of our biggest banks:Mr Gonski, who has long argued against "short-termism" among investors, stressed the bank's board needed to balance the needs of shareholders with those of the wider community, staff, and customers.
"Now some might say that at the moment, with some of the actions we are taking, shareholders in the short term may have to bear the cost and it is my job to act in the interests of shareholders," Mr Gonski told ANZ website Bluenotes.

"But to act in the long term interests of shareholders and I stress long term we must act in the interest of other stakeholders, of staff, of the community.

"In my view, to take a short term view in a crisis like this would be very dangerous. It is difficult to balance these stakeholders in a crisis but we must. Everybody is paying, unfortunately," he said.
At the risk of this thread being shoved over to P&R, I dare say it isn't conservatism or "right wing" that is calling the shots in America right now...
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Old 04-19-20, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by thinktubes View Post
Good article - thanks!

There seems to be a divide between "wanting get back to work" and "wanting to do as I please ". Reopening beaches would not be my first choice to get the economy restarted.

I'm in Chicago and my wife relies on public transportation to get to her job. Here's a typical commute pic:



This is going to be a huge challenge to social distancing and will need to be figured out. The CTA can't keep the cars clean even in the best of times, so how are they going to do it now?
Well honestly... how many of those folks in Chicago are white collar office workers? Is there really a need for them to commute if they work on a computer or phone? The new normal is going to HAVE to include telecommuting for those that can... and the BLS says nearly 1/3 of all workers can.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 29 percent of Americans can work from home, including one in 20 service workers and more than half of information workers.
https://www.fundera.com/resources/wo...ome-statistics

We waste an awful lot of time and natural resources moving people from one desk to another. Think how the roads and highways, and yes, MTA would look if there were 1/3 fewer commuters.
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Old 04-19-20, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
Not trying to be difficult here but you're putting words in quotes which suggests I said them which I didn't. In fact, my words were quite different:

and

I'm wrong here all the time so I'm very protective of the few times I'm OK.
You sir are correct, the words you used were "analysis evenly throughout the country" and then later referenced "rules" based on said analysis. I paraphrased it.

But bottom line, I WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREE WITH YOU.

There are areas, due to low population density, that are simply unlikely to spread the virus. But then, in spite of any rules, those areas are naturally practicing "social distancing."


Proper analysis should exclude those areas, based on the low probability of infection, and should instead focus on those areas with higher probability of infection.

We should focus on those counties shown in red, below, but also bear in mind that those counties shown in white, while appearing infection free, may simply have not had any testing done.

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Old 04-19-20, 09:34 AM
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Both my wife and I love telecommuting. I'm sure it will become much more common post-Covid. The downside is, we are no longer spending money at the retail and service business near our workplaces. If telecommuting becomes the new norm, I suspect a lot of service and retail jobs will disappear from metro areas.
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Old 04-19-20, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by thinktubes View Post
Both my wife and I love telecommuting. I'm sure it will become much more common post-Covid. The downside is, we are no longer spending money at the retail and service business near our workplaces. If telecommuting becomes the new norm, I suspect a lot of service and retail jobs will disappear from metro areas.
It might be healthier for us to decentralize... Less pollution; local vendors, shops you can walk to in your neighborhood... fewer Giant Box Stores. Hey, isn't this what America once was? This notion of commuting to a downtown core pretty much arose with the advent of the automobile... Maybe it is time to get back to local smaller clusters of shops and services.

Along with that, how about distributed power networks, based on local solar and wind... less prone to large scale outages like Southwest outage of 2011, or the Northeast outage of 2003.

Bottom line... SPREAD OUT... it's healthier for all of us.
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Old 04-19-20, 04:06 PM
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Based on the number of people who do not take social distancing seriously enough, I'm beginning to suspect that the effect of this pandemic will be like a tsunami. We are in the midst of the first wave but in a tsunami the second wave and the third wave are the more dangerous events. I don't see much in the behavior of the general public nor in the behavior of many political leaders that will lessen the risk. Just the opposite, the general belief is that we will soon reach a point of maximum infection rate together with an accompanying rate of death, then we will be over the hill, so to speak, and home free to continue our lives as before. Based on attitudes alone that second wave will catch many by surprise.
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Old 04-20-20, 06:09 AM
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Originally Posted by berner View Post
Based on the number of people who do not take social distancing seriously enough, I'm beginning to suspect that the effect of this pandemic will be like a tsunami. We are in the midst of the first wave but in a tsunami the second wave and the third wave are the more dangerous events. I don't see much in the behavior of the general public nor in the behavior of many political leaders that will lessen the risk. Just the opposite, the general belief is that we will soon reach a point of maximum infection rate together with an accompanying rate of death, then we will be over the hill, so to speak, and home free to continue our lives as before. Based on attitudes alone that second wave will catch many by surprise.
terrified this is actually the case sir... i see same attitudes in Texas
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Old 04-20-20, 07:03 AM
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Originally Posted by berner View Post
Based on the number of people who do not take social distancing seriously enough, I'm beginning to suspect that the effect of this pandemic will be like a tsunami. We are in the midst of the first wave but in a tsunami the second wave and the third wave are the more dangerous events. I don't see much in the behavior of the general public nor in the behavior of many political leaders that will lessen the risk. Just the opposite, the general belief is that we will soon reach a point of maximum infection rate together with an accompanying rate of death, then we will be over the hill, so to speak, and home free to continue our lives as before. Based on attitudes alone that second wave will catch many by surprise.
As dire as you post appears, it is possibly wishful thinking. According to Johns Hopkins (https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html) herd immunity is reached when 70% to 90% of the local population is infected. Reaching these levels would obviously result in death levels far above what we're seeing now.

Beyond that, though, it's likely but not proven that infection creates immunity. Or, how long or effective that immunity is remains to be seen.

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Old 05-04-20, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by sirjag View Post
terrified this is actually the case sir... i see same attitudes in Texas
There ARE places in Texas where one's nearest neighbor is a mile away... and if the folks stay on the ranch/farm, they are not likely to be exposed to the virus. On the other hand... Dallas, Houston and a few other locations are densely populated, and "attitudes" there can kill.

However, compare the map below, to the map in an earlier post... to see those infection free areas of Texas are becoming fewer and fewer.


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Old 05-04-20, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
There ARE places in Texas where one's nearest neighbor is a mile away... and if the folks stay on the ranch/farm, they are not likely to be exposed to the virus. On the other hand... Dallas, Houston and a few other locations are densely populated, and "attitudes" there can kill.
Yes agree, one size fits all is not the answer. But Texas politicians seem to be taking cues from Washington, and they dont have our interest in mind...only their own. I'm in Austin, and we are doing better than dallas and houston, and SA...but for how long....the roads were packed this AM heading to work.

Thankfully our executives here at my workplace already said nothing is changing and that "american politicians are ignorant" ....so that was nice to see and hear. I feel safer in work than anywhere else for the time being.

JAG
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Old 05-04-20, 04:12 PM
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No No No we keep saying.
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Old 05-04-20, 04:14 PM
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whatever the region, whatever the rules, the sociopaths that resent any authority, are revolting & authorities are caving
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Old 05-04-20, 04:29 PM
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It's one thing to lift social distance in a rural place like Wyoming, and it's another to do it in a rural place like upstate NY. As it was, where I live up here, folks are coming regularly from NYC and NJ. The trails are packed on weekends (not much riding as we still have snow on the mountains and sand on the shoulders). Folks have been flocking up here since this started. Some are moving into summer homes early. Some are looking at airbnbs as vacation time. I'm truly concerned about how this spreads up here. Heck, most folks are at least 45minutes to a hospital.
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Old 05-04-20, 05:18 PM
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Social distancing is OK with me. I hate people anyways
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Old 05-04-20, 06:41 PM
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I'm pretty sure people in rural areas get the flu. If they can get the flu they can get Covid-19... and when they do, the outcomes are much worse than in cities.
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