50PlusCycling

Things are taking a turn for the better here in Tokyo. Around Japan we are getting less than 100 cases per day, and Tokyo is seeing around 20 per day. Many prefectures have gone weeks without any cases.

Japan was supposed to remain under its state of emergency until the end of May, but it was lifted in most prefectures on Thursday. Though a state of emergency has been in place since early April, there were never any serious restrictions, all were voluntary. Stores, shops, and restaurants were asked to close, and people were asked to stay home as much as possible. However, there was no requirement that either be done, many places remained open, and people were free to come and go if they liked. Despite the laxity of restrictions, the virus never took off here. Indeed, since the state of emergency was enacted, suicides fell by some 20%, which means that the coronavirus outbreak actually caused a reduction overall deaths in Japan.

RubeRad

US population like 300M, Japan population like 100M: about 3x. US deaths close to 100,000, Japan deaths under 1,000; over 100x. They must be doing something right!

skookum

Agreed. But what?

50PlusCycling

One thing that increased during the emergency was the amount of people deciding to go out and exercise. There were far more people running in the park, and far more people out cycling than is normal for this time of year.

What has helped is that Japanese are not touchy-feely people. You seldom see people holding hands in public, people do not shake hands or hug, and I have never seen anyone kissing or making out in public. Since the swine flu outbreak back in 2009, Japanese schools, offices, and department stores have hand sanitizer at every entrance, and this is religiously used. Back in February their use was extended to pretty much all places of business.

Next, diabetes and obesity are uncommon in Japan. People in Japan are frugal and economical. They do not spend money unnecessarily, particularly on food. Most Japanese households have only one income earner, and despite earning less per household than Americans or Europeans, Japanese tend to have no debt, and save a large amount of their incomes. There is no "keeping up with the Joneses" here, families do not own multiple cars or televisions. Housing is small, and this limits how many things one can buy or own. And Japan is not an accessible country. There is nothing like the American Disability Act. Businesses are not required to have access for people who cannot walk or require a wheelchair. This means that many multi-floor businesses do not have escalators or elevators, and many train stations do not have elevators. When I first moved to Japan and lived outside the city, to get to the train platform I had to climb a tall flight of stairs which crossed the tracks, climb down the other side, pass through the station turnstiles, then climb a second set of stairs, cross the tracks again, and then descend the stairs again. If an old person or someone in a wheelchair need to get to the platform, the train station attendants would simply carry them over.

Workers in department stores in Japan are not allowed to use elevators or escalators, these are for the customers only. Factory workers in car or camera factories must do their work while standing. Office workers of course get to sit. In Akihabara there is a busy electronics store not far from the train station, it has an external staircase, and it looks like a tree near an anthill, there is a constant stream of store workers moving up and down carrying merchandise, coming to, or going home from work.

When I used to have to commute to work in Japan, I would leave my house, walk 15 minutes to the train station, navigate the stairs to get to the platform, take a 10 minute train ride to the next station. Then I would have to navigate more stairs to get to the next train platform. I then had a 30 minute ride to the city (always standing room only). Then I would get off the train, climb down the stairs, use the underground passage to get across the station, then climb two flights of stairs to get to the street. Then I had a 5 minute walk to my office, which was on the 3rd floor, and I had to climb the stairs to reach it. My return commute would be the opposite of the above. It is little wonder why obesity and diabetes are rare in Japan.

Yesterday there were 24 new COVID 19 cases in all of Japan, Osaka, Japan's second-largest city, had zero new cases.

RubeRad

A society that is generally more respectful of authority, and thorough compliance to social distancing, mask wearing, and probably other things like hand-washing.

The same point could be made about China (>3x population compared to the US, but way fewer cases/deaths) but who knows if they are honest about their statistics. I think with Japan there is no suspicion of fudging the numbers.

RubeRad

Here are many links I should have googled and included in the OP

Many hypotheses: https://www.embopress.org/doi/10.15252/emmm.202012481

Maybe they're just starting late? https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronav...ths-quarantine

Cultural factors? https://www.japantimes.co.jp/communi.../#.XsQEIsBlBEY

https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/covi...e-japan-model/

skookum

Very interesting reading.Thanks for posting.
I note that the surge predicted by Vox at the end of March, didn't happen. Or at least hasn't happened yet.

RubeRad

Thx, I didn't read thoroughly enough to notice the dates.

skookum

It was good to read anyway because it illustrates how uncertain things are and how poorly many predictions turn out. And it could still be proved true.

Although I am becoming less enamoured of Vox as time goes on.

RubeRad

yeah? I thought vox was pretty good. What aren't you liking about them?

skookum

Well there was this article How masks helped Hong Kong control the coronavirus .
It doesn't offer any actual evidence that wearing masks is what made the difference. I'm sort of agreeing with their general premise that wearing masks is good, but there is no way to prove that it was crucial.
Maybe its just their know it all tone that annoys me.

skookum

Bloomberg article on Japan lifting state of emergency. Again no clear reason for their success.

But...

Bloomberg

prairiepedaler

Here in Winnipeg (pop 780,000), 31 people die every day year in and year out from all causes. As of March, seven people have died attributed to Corona virus.

skookum

And in Montreal, a city of 1.7 million over 2000 deaths from Covid19. Some places get hit hard, others get away virtually unscathed.

prairiepedaler

67,000 people per year die in Quebec, day in day out; 183 per day.

The bulk of Quebecs' deaths attributed to Corona occured in nursing homes; 70%. Deaths in long-term care homes account for 81 percent of Canada's deaths.

https://www.lmtonline.com/news/artic...d-15290747.php

skookum

It is a great tragedy that we were unable to protect the vulnerable in our long term care homes. A nursing home manager in Connecticut tried a different approach.https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020...oronavirus-rvs

skookum

Poster describing Japanese methods to reduce spread of the virus.

CycleryNorth81

These people need to learn about the Three Cs.

More than 4,000 maskless fans pack the stands at a North Carolina raceway after sheriff refused to enforce state's coronavirus lockdown orders on the same day the state saw it's highest increase in infections
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...a-raceway.html

2cam16

Well done,NC.