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Fatality rates in CA

 
Old 06-08-20, 07:37 PM
  #26  
wgscott
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The SF Comical has this resource I have been following: https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
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Old 06-08-20, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
The SF Comical has this resource I have been following: https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
Wow, first time in my life I click on a sfchronicle.com link (that I can remember) and it says 'you have reached your free article limit!'
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Old 06-08-20, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by skidder View Post
Maybe look at the CA stats on a county-by-county basis, and by population (deaths/population ratio)? Los Angeles county, with 10 million residents, has half the state's deaths (2000). Neighboring Orange County has 3.3 million people, but only 170 deaths. Riverside County (3 million) has 2X as many deaths as Orange County, but still way below L.A. on a deaths/population ratio. Not sure about the Bay area counties , but I've heard they're lower than L.A. County, too.
Interesting point, I hadn't thought about county-by-county differences.

Here's a screenshot from the LA Times right now:



Huge variation in Per Capita stats. Bizarre, Imperial County over 2x cases per capita compared to L.A, but 2/3 the deaths per capita. I bet that's due to a prison or two, with near-complete infection rate and low death rate for prisoners who are younger and stronger than the general demographic.

Fatality rates from those top few rows:
LA 4.2%
Riverside 4.0%
San Diego 3.5%
Orange 2.4%
San Bern 3.6%
Alameda 2.7%
Santa Clara 5.0% !
San Fran 1.6% !
Imperial 1.3%
Kern 1.8%
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Old 06-08-20, 09:17 PM
  #29  
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Testing rates vary so much, I think the more relevant statistics are hospitalizations and deaths.Trends can be indicative too, but of course if they are ramping up testing or cutting down, that will affect trends. Looking at deaths per 100 000, it doesnt look that bad compared to other jurisdictions. I'd say they have done fairly well. Lets hope it stays that way.
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Old 06-08-20, 10:52 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Wow, first time in my life I click on a sfchronicle.com link (that I can remember) and it says 'you have reached your free article limit!'
Ironically, if you use an ad blocker, there is no issue accessing it.
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Old 06-09-20, 10:18 AM
  #31  
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Here is essentially the same thing on CNN's website: https://www.cnn.com/resources/corona...ormation/94086

(You have to give it a zip code, so I gave it a CA one.)
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Old 06-09-20, 11:06 AM
  #32  
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Thx, but that has way less info than the LA Times page. Nothing about age or race demographics, for instance, or any breakdowns finer than county. A good tool for nationwide overview I guess
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Old 06-09-20, 11:29 AM
  #33  
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Another thing that's missing from the LAT page is active and/or recovered cases, since all they show is cumulative cases and new cases. Recovered would be something like cumulative cases from 2 weeks ago - cumulative deaths today.

Although I guess the hospitalization tracker is kind of a proxy for active cases.
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Old 06-09-20, 06:45 PM
  #34  
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Here in Orange County I like the hospitalization rate ("COVID-19 Cases Hospitalized" in the attachment). It shows the total number of persons in the hospital on that day, regardless of when they were admitted. Its currently starting to flatten out, but I figure when it starts going down that'll mean less spread and some 'heard immunity' build-up.

https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc
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Old 06-09-20, 07:26 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by skidder View Post
Here in Orange County I like the hospitalization rate ("COVID-19 Cases Hospitalized" in the attachment). It shows the total number of persons in the hospital on that day, regardless of when they were admitted. Its currently starting to flatten out, but I figure when it starts going down that'll mean less spread and some 'heard immunity' build-up.


https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc

I was watching a videocast with Erin Bromage, the infectious disease researcher who has been writing a popular blog on the pandemic,
where he said an important indicator was the percentage of positive tests. Looks like it was 7.5% for Orange County (93/1236). Bromage said when it was 5% or less it was good, because it shows they are testing enough to be able to trace the contacts, and community transmission is dropping.

So it could be be a bit better and it looks like infections are still increasing. Nice to have all that info in one place, and all those graphs, nice presentation

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Old 06-10-20, 08:01 AM
  #36  
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Orange county...

After several intense weeks spent defending her countywide mask order, Orange County’s chief health officer resigned Monday. Some residents and elected officials challenged the need for the widespread use of masks as businesses reopened — despite an uptick in cases — and the O.C. Sheriff’s Department had to provide her with a security detail after she received what officials deemed to be a death threat.
https://www.latimes.com/science/news...onavirus-today
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Old 06-12-20, 11:22 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Wow, first time in my life I click on a sfchronicle.com link (that I can remember) and it says 'you have reached your free article limit!'
...they know when you are living in Southern California, man. Don't expect to be received with open arms up here in NorCal when everyone knows you are after our precious liquids.
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Old 06-12-20, 11:25 AM
  #38  
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...if not necessarily dying 'from' the virus, dying of a co-morbidity 'with' the virus.
...I'm surprised that this is still going around. I had hoped we would have reached herd immunity on this one by now.
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Old 06-12-20, 11:42 AM
  #39  
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.
...I've been absentmindedly paying attention to some of the news on infection and hospitalization rates in some of the more rural enclaves where we (in less perilous times) would spend some weeks out of town. Like up in the Sierra and around Lake Tahoe, for example. The numbers are much sketchier there, because the spread has been slow but steady into places like Alpine County.

Here's a report from May 12. Things are looking rosy.

Here's the current status report from Alpine county health dept.

Which sounds still pretty rosy, until you consider that they've been pretty much shut down to tourism from down here in the Valley and the Bay Area since March.
I get it, the entire economy up there runs on tourist money. And all those people with vacation homes up there are not gonna be happy staying down here.

Still, I wonder what happens when they start clocking significant case numbers in Alpine County, and they start getting locals sick enough to require hospitalization? It's a great place to be if you need x-rays or orthopedic surgery. Not so good if you need a Pulmonologist or an ICU bed.
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Old 06-12-20, 03:42 PM
  #40  
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Case in point: I was shaking my head when I found out one of my cousins just drove up from SoCal to Tahoe and is headed home today. Bringing with him all those germs from high-numbered SoCal to spread in Tahoe.
Why can't people wait? Take it more seriously?
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Old 06-12-20, 04:43 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by 2cam16 View Post
Case in point: I was shaking my head when I found out one of my cousins just drove up from SoCal to Tahoe and is headed home today. Bringing with him all those germs from high-numbered SoCal to spread in Tahoe.
Why can't people wait? Take it more seriously?
...your cousin probably got a killer deal on a vacation rental, couldn't afford to pass on it.
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Old 06-13-20, 12:50 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...I'm surprised that this is still going around. I had hoped we would have reached herd immunity on this one by now.
See the first dozen or so posts in the thread, I'm not saying what you think I'm saying
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Old 06-13-20, 05:22 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
As of today, CA is 4633/130930=3.54%, NY is 30374/378097=8.03%

But I have no idea to what extent those statistics are uncomparable because of different testing rates, counting methodology, etc.

The analogous NY Times page is way less informative than LA Times page, so no way to tell whether demographics are comparable in NY or not. Anybody know of data from other sources?
To some extent looking at the case fatality rate and the case hospitalization rate (not as often published), one can estimate the true number of cases.

Nursing homes will throw the numbers around a bit, so a bunch of people might die in a large nursing home outbreak.

But, for the general public, somewhere around 1% mortality.

So, if the state is showing 148,000 cases, 5010 deaths, and a mortality rate of about 3.4%, then the true number of cases is likely at least 3x that, or somewhere around 450,000 cases. Perhaps even significantly more than that.

As testing protocols have changed significantly over time, it might also be worthwhile to look at cases since say May 15, and mortality since May 15



Ok, for California numbers,
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/CO...19_time_series

I think they have:
69,966 new cases since May 15.
1,842 dead since May 15.


I think that drops your mortality rate down to about 2.6%.

Quite a bit lower than considering the full year, but still indicative of quite a few missed cases.

Let's try the same for Oregon.
1836 new cases since May 15.
36 new deaths since May 15.

So the recent mortality rate in Oregon is down to about 2%, whereas the overall mortality rate is: 173/5377 = 3.2%.

Still, likely quite a few undiagnosed cases.
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Old 06-13-20, 07:13 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
See the first dozen or so posts in the thread, I'm not saying what you think I'm saying
...well I certainly hope so Ollie.
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Old 06-14-20, 05:46 AM
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...well I certainly hope so Ollie.
Who's Ollie?
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Old 06-14-20, 05:51 AM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
As testing protocols have changed significantly over time, it might also be worthwhile to look at cases since say May 15, and mortality since May 15
Wouldn't you also want like a 2-week lag? Mortality since May 15 is due to cases since May 1. That would lower your percentages a little bit, but not much since with exponential growth, not as many cases were added 2 weeks earlier.

Anyways, the mortality rate is so radically different for different age groups, it's counterproductive to distill it into just one number.
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Old 06-14-20, 06:10 AM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Wouldn't you also want like a 2-week lag? Mortality since May 15 is due to cases since May 1. That would lower your percentages a little bit, but not much since with exponential growth, not as many cases were added 2 weeks earlier.

Anyways, the mortality rate is so radically different for different age groups, it's counterproductive to distill it into just one number.
Good idea.

But, perhaps a 2 week shift in data.

So, for 30 days of data, cases from 1st to 31st & mortality from 15th to 15th.

Of course some are DOA at hospital, while others have a period of deterioration.
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Old 06-14-20, 11:22 AM
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*sigh*

Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Who's Ollie?

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Old 06-14-20, 02:34 PM
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ok now that I know who Ollie is, I still don't get the joke (? reference? slur?). But that's OK. I've come to terms with my ignorance.
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Old 06-14-20, 04:55 PM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
ok now that I know who Ollie is, I still don't get the joke (? reference? slur?). But that's OK. I've come to terms with my ignorance.
...in many Laurel and Hardy movies, there is the line, "Well I certainly hope so Ollie. "(or Stanley, I might have it backwards).
When people start imagining slurs coming from Laurel and Hardy movies, we are in some very deep ****.


This is another fine mess you've gotten us into.
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