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Fatality rates in CA

 
Old 06-14-20, 05:01 PM
  #51  
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Geeze, how old are you? Are you still ambulatory?
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Old 06-14-20, 06:58 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Geeze, how old are you? Are you still ambulatory?
...who is this "Geeze" person ? Is that a slur ? Why walk when you can ride ?
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Old 06-14-20, 07:03 PM
  #53  
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.
...if you live through enough history, two things happen. One is that you start to understand what Santayana was saying.
The other is that nobody gets any of your witty cultural reference jokes any more.



After a while, you feel like you're always out on a date with a hot 25 year old chick, and you simply refuse to explain who Spiro Agnew is yet again.
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Old 06-14-20, 10:02 PM
  #54  
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Pay those nattering nabobs of negativism no heed.
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Old 06-15-20, 09:45 AM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
This is another fine mess you've gotten us into.
Now that rings a bell -- also Laurel & Hardy?
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Old 06-15-20, 09:52 AM
  #56  
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*sigh*

Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Now that rings a bell -- also Laurel & Hardy?
...yes. Are you really a hot, 25 year old coed with father issues ?
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Old 06-15-20, 10:01 AM
  #57  
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Not last time I checked, but nowdays I could probably self-identify as one if that's what you need from me

(ps a 25 year old coed sounds pretty dumb -- nowadays kids can finish college in only 6 years)
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Old 06-15-20, 10:16 AM
  #58  
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*sigh*

Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post

(ps a 25 year old coed sounds pretty dumb -- nowadays kids can finish college in only 6 years)
...you don't need to be smart if you're hot, man.
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Old 06-20-20, 11:57 PM
  #59  
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As of today, CA daily new cases continue to climb, but daily deaths are gently tailing off.




This must be because testing is expanding, so more people are getting counted that were slipping through the cracks before.


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Old 06-21-20, 07:42 AM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
As of today, CA daily new cases continue to climb, but daily deaths are gently tailing off.




This must be because testing is expanding, so more people are getting counted that were slipping through the cracks before.


https://blog.nature.org/science/file...R-1260x708.jpg

Doesn't the data contradict this, or are you being ironic?
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Old 06-21-20, 09:43 AM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Doesn't the data contradict this, or are you being ironic?
No I'm being serious, and the data behind those graphs supports it. Daily deaths are declining (slowly), even though Daily new cases are still climbing. The most logical explanation for this is increased testing is recording more cases that wouldn't have gotten recorded before, and indeed testing is up.

Are you aware of other data?
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Old 06-21-20, 10:04 AM
  #62  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
No I'm being serious, and the data behind those graphs supports it. Daily deaths are declining (slowly), even though Daily new cases are still climbing. The most logical explanation for this is increased testing is recording more cases that wouldn't have gotten recorded before, and indeed testing is up.
OK, I was thinking about the correlation between your graph #3 and graph #1 . I kind of buy what you are saying after about June 10th. The "new cases" have been (roughly) monotonically increasing since April 1st, according to graph #1 . The testing has also, but with a much more shallow slope.
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Old 06-21-20, 10:07 AM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
No I'm being serious, and the data behind those graphs supports it. Daily deaths are declining (slowly), even though Daily new cases are still climbing. The most logical explanation for this is increased testing is recording more cases that wouldn't have gotten recorded before, and indeed testing is up.

Are you aware of other data?
....I keep forgetting. Aren't you the professional statistician ? See, to a rank amateur with numbers like me, I look at that line in the daily death rates and it looks relatively flat, or at least flat enough that I would not call it in any way predictive of a continuing decline. But hey, I don't work with numbers, so what do I know ?
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Old 06-21-20, 10:09 AM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
OK, I was thinking about the correlation between your graph #3 and graph #1 . I kind of buy what you are saying after about June 10th. The "new cases" have been (roughly) monotonically increasing since April 1st, according to graph #1 . The testing has also, but with a much more shallow slope.
...are you buying the idea that ten days of data in the course of what promises to be a long event has predictive value ? I confess, I am not.
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Old 06-21-20, 10:10 AM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...you don't need to be smart if you're hot, man.
...BTW, before I got so damn old, I was considered hot.
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Old 06-21-20, 10:18 AM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
to a rank amateur with numbers like me, I look at that line in the daily death rates and it looks relatively flat, or at least flat enough
That fooled me too.

OK, I calculated the best-fit linear slopes for graph #3 and the corresponding time window for graph #1 . The slope for graph #3 (normalized for percentage increase since May 1) is actually steeper, so RubeRad is right.

Last edited by wgscott; 06-21-20 at 10:23 AM.
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Old 06-21-20, 10:20 AM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...are you buying the idea that ten days of data in the course of what promises to be a long event has predictive value ? I confess, I am not.
No. I also said it wrong. I was thinking in terms of comparing the dates on both graphs. (It turns out eyeballing the graphs is a terrible way to evaluate slopes.)

See later post directly above.
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Old 06-21-20, 10:44 AM
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Southern California seems to be the problem in CA. They typically make up 90 - 95% of the daily deaths, with LA County accounting for half to three-quarters of them.

We have a similar situation here in TX. Cases are increasing rapidly but daily deaths are relatively flat. Most of the deaths are coming out of Harris County (Houston). On the local front here in Austin, I watch new cases, hospitalizations, deaths and ventilators. For new cases, I look at "above 60" and "below 60" (I'm in the first group). A month ago, it was a 16/84 split...now it's a 15/85 split...which to me says us older folks are remaining cautious. On deaths, it's the inverse...85/15 skewed to the older group. Ventilators a month ago ran between 18 and 22 in use...now it's between 26 and 30.

As of tomorrow, masks are mandatory at business here in Austin, so hopefully we can slow things down a little as they've started talking about field hospitals again.
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Old 06-21-20, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
No I'm being serious, and the data behind those graphs supports it. Daily deaths are declining (slowly), even though Daily new cases are still climbing. The most logical explanation for this is increased testing is recording more cases that wouldn't have gotten recorded before, and indeed testing is up.

Are you aware of other data?
Hospital admissions (including ICU) are increasing so it's possible the overall number of cases is rising but treatment is improving so death rate is holding steady in spite of a rise in cases.
https://public.tableau.com/views/COV...showVizHome=no
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Old 06-21-20, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
OK, I was thinking about the correlation between your graph #3 and graph #1 . I kind of buy what you are saying after about June 10th. The "new cases" have been (roughly) monotonically increasing since April 1st, according to graph #1 . The testing has also, but with a much more shallow slope.
Well two linearly increasing graphs can be made to look as similar or dissimilar as you want by adjusting the vertical scale.

I'm not sure it's trivial to quantify the relationship between the curves, how much more testing is driven by more cases (people come down with symptoms and get tested)? vs how much of the case growth is due to increased testing of less-symptomatic or asymptomatic people? There are variables like, what's the shape of the curve for negative test results (I guess tests - cases)? What's the shape of the curve of #tests for asymptomatic people (are we even doing that?) Maybe even break down asymptomatic tests due to contact tracing, vs asymptomatic tests in an attempt to get well-randomized scientific samples; or because some people have X dollars burning a hole in their pocket and the CVS has a sign saying 'testing available here'.
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Old 06-21-20, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
....I keep forgetting. Aren't you the professional statistician ? See, to a rank amateur with numbers like me, I look at that line in the daily death rates and it looks relatively flat, or at least flat enough that I would not call it in any way predictive of a continuing decline. But hey, I don't work with numbers, so what do I know ?
Not exactly a statistician, but I have a PhD in a math-adjacent field that included requirements for graduate level Probability & Statistics.
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Old 06-21-20, 03:43 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
That fooled me too.

OK, I calculated the best-fit linear slopes for graph #3 and the corresponding time window for graph #1 . The slope for graph #3 (normalized for percentage increase since May 1) is actually steeper, so RubeRad is right.
I'd be interested to see what your numbers look like
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Old 06-21-20, 04:11 PM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Not exactly a statistician, but I have a PhD in a math-adjacent field that included requirements for graduate level Probability & Statistics.
...I only took the minimum to graduate in my field, which was not especially recognized as anything other than "Survey of Statistical methods for Dummies."
However, I do have a lot of practical experience with people spinning numbers, because I worked in a couple gubb'mint jobs. In the SSA, people literally live and die over numbers. Careers are made and lost.

The reason I ended up in California in the first place was because the people in the office I transferred to here were better at spinning numbers than the office I left in TN.


So it's not like I don't understand the principles of bending the truth using numbers and questionable interpretations of them.
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Old 06-21-20, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
No I'm being serious, and the data behind those graphs supports it. Daily deaths are declining (slowly), even though Daily new cases are still climbing. The most logical explanation for this is increased testing is recording more cases that wouldn't have gotten recorded before, and indeed testing is up.

Are you aware of other data?
...the other data, of course, would be increasing hospital admissions, and the 12 other states where this is happening. All those people in all those states are currently free to hop in the RV with the kids and granny, drive over to the interstate, and follow the yellow brick road straight to California. So I'm getting a tingle in my fallacy sense. California, as much as we might wish it, is not a separate island state, protected by a large wall. This is in addition to my general unease over your bolded statement.

Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Well two linearly increasing graphs can be made to look as similar or dissimilar as you want by adjusting the vertical scale.

I'm not sure it's trivial to quantify the relationship between the curves, how much more testing is driven by more cases (people come down with symptoms and get tested)? vs how much of the case growth is due to increased testing of less-symptomatic or asymptomatic people? There are variables like, what's the shape of the curve for negative test results (I guess tests - cases)? What's the shape of the curve of #tests for asymptomatic people (are we even doing that?) Maybe even break down asymptomatic tests due to contact tracing, vs asymptomatic tests in an attempt to get well-randomized scientific samples; or because some people have X dollars burning a hole in their pocket and the CVS has a sign saying 'testing available here'.
...so what's your position on testing, tracing, and isolating positive cases ? Horse has left the barn ? Too little, too late ? Are you still going with isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with our lives ? I recall that was at one time your position on this, and I find it somewhat offensive. Not that I'm easily offended, mind you. Once you've been "hot", it's pretty hard to take offense at much of anything.
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Old 06-21-20, 04:22 PM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I'd be interested to see what your numbers look like
I'm still not at all confident I am doing this right, but if you look at the last 50 days for both graphs 1 and 3, there is a roughly a 2.1-fold increase in cases, but a 2.4-fold increase in testing. I falsely thought 3 was much flatter than 1, but it is about the same (possibly slightly steeper slope).
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