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As predicted :States with serious coronavirus problems need to consider shutting down

Old 07-09-20, 08:23 AM
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3alarmer
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As predicted :States with serious coronavirus problems need to consider shutting down

...
A second shutdown might be the best move for states struggling with burgeoning coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, one of the nation's top infectious disease experts says.

"I think any state that is having a serious problem, that state should seriously look at shutting down," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the Wall Street Journal in a podcast Wednesday.

Fauci's comment comes as the country and some states are setting records for average daily officially reported cases, ICUs in hot spots are reaching capacity, and most states are seeing spikes, recalling the uncertainty of months ago when the virus first broke out.

Fauci stressed shutting down certain states' economies' "wasn't for me to say because each state is different." But another health expert echoed his overarching opinion about second shutdowns Thursday morning."If you're not doing the ... things we've talked about in the past to get this outbreak under control, starting with test and trace ... your only option is to shut down," Dr. Ali Khan, former director of the CDC's public health preparedness office, told CNN's "New Day" Thursday.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/healt...day/index.html


...this is not rocket science. We have plenty of history from the Spanish Flu pandemic, and studies and economic analyses of that event. And so it goes.
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Old 07-09-20, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...

We have plenty of history from the Spanish Flu pandemic
Yep. Despite the pandemic, Philadelphia held a large parade to promote bonds to raise money for WWI. Thousands became infected, and the city eventually became the hardest hit in the entire country.
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Old 07-09-20, 08:54 AM
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Old 07-09-20, 09:18 AM
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The second wave for the Spanish Flu was primarily because the virus had mutated from the first wave into a much more virulent form. It wasn't because social distancing from the first wave was relaxed (it was not thought necessary). Serious attempts to stop the pandemic by shutting down venues and the like didn't happen until the second wave, and for most, like Philadelphia, it was too little too late.
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Old 07-09-20, 09:31 AM
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No amount of shutting down will force the dumb out of people. Two out of three aren't wearing masks properly (if at all,) and half of the people in masks think it can perform magic and will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with you. They can ask for masks or 6 feet, but apparently not both. As with everything else, the people who follow the rules get to suffer at the hands of those who don't. I bear no responsibility for the first shutdown, and will bear none for any subsequent shutdowns.

I think the joke on Twitter about rewarding the cities/counties/states with the fewest daily cases (the Pizza Party Principle) could actually work. People are only motivated by getting stuff, preferably for free. Having stuff taken away just makes them act out. They told the people of LA they couldn't have fireworks, and look how that turned out.
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Old 07-09-20, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
No amount of shutting down will force the dumb out of people. Two out of three aren't wearing masks properly (if at all,) and half of the people in masks think it can perform magic and will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with you. They can ask for masks or 6 feet, but apparently not both. As with everything else, the people who follow the rules get to suffer at the hands of those who don't. I bear no responsibility for the first shutdown, and will bear none for any subsequent shutdowns.

I think the joke on Twitter about rewarding the cities/counties/states with the fewest daily cases (the Pizza Party Principle) could actually work. People are only motivated by getting stuff, preferably for free. Having stuff taken away just makes them act out. They told the people of LA they couldn't have fireworks, and look how that turned out.
I'm feeling the same disappointment with the general public. Mirroring their thoughts about politics, they really don't seem to be able to see the grays between black and white, and use reasonable judgment and good information to make good decisions.

Tell people that they are relatively safe outdoors, and soon enough, they interpret that to mean they no longer have to keep their distance or wear masks. All bets are off and now we are having group picnics with people spending hours together in close proximity. So the beaches then get closed to everyone, even the ones laying out in the sand a good distance from anyone and with their own intimates.

Tell them bars are open (never understood that one ... a bar is the last place I would go today), and people think ... well, the government says it's OK, lets drink! The older I get, the more I realize that although the world isn't black and white by any means, you have to create policies for people who see it that way.

I've seen the problem, and it is us.
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Old 07-09-20, 01:32 PM
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I live in a tourist area in upstate NY. We're flooded with plates from all over the country. Every fifth car at the farmers market on sunday is actually from NY.

Yesterday Iím at the library downloading something.
This woman comes up, she finds a mask and puts it on. It isnít covering her nose.
Iím sitting outside the library leaning against the wall under the book drop (I think). I ask which way sheís going so I can move.
She says inside.
I say theyíre closed.
Oh because of construction?
Pretty sure because of covid, and that mask needs to cover your nose.
She covers and then lowers it again to talk.
I can hear you, you really need to cover your nose.
Where are you from. Uncovers nose to answer.
Out of town.
Yeah, you really need to cover your nose. Theyíre closed. Have been, under covid orders.
Oh, Iíll try and find it somewhere else.
Out of state plates drive away.

There's no where for the numbers to go but up.
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Old 07-09-20, 02:42 PM
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Iím so bored right now waiting for nighttime when I ride my bike to avoid the heat. Watching Karen and Kyle meltdown videos for entertainment Texas needs to do more and if we have to shut down for awhile so be it. I wear my mask and when I see people that donít I walk the other way or go down another aisle. Especially if the person is purposely looking for confrontation. You can tell by the body language of the Bubba and Bubettes they are not that clever. Iím self isolating as much as possible now since this virus is out of control because I feel the risk just going to the grocery store.
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Old 07-09-20, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
Iím so bored right now waiting for nighttime when I ride my bike to avoid the heat. Watching Karen and Kyle meltdown videos for entertainment Texas needs to do more less and if we have to shut down for awhile so be it. I wear my mask and when I see people that donít I walk the other way or go down another aisle. Especially if the person is purposely looking for confrontation. You can tell by the body language of the Bubba and Bubettes they are not that clever. Iím self isolating as much as possible now since this virus is out of control because I feel the risk just going to the grocery store.
"Texas needs to do more" is what's getting you into this mess.
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Old 07-09-20, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...



...this is not rocket science. We have plenty of history from the Spanish Flu pandemic, and studies and economic analyses of that event. And so it goes.
We have plenty of evidence from two months ago. As a Texan I am seeing everything happen now that I was reading about happening in NYC in May. We saw it coming and opened up anyway. Thanks, ****tt.
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Old 07-09-20, 03:01 PM
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I'm taking my own advice now since you can't believe everything the news publishes. It's been working really well for me.
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Old 07-09-20, 03:14 PM
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IMHO, The idea that we can distance and trace our way out is a pipe dream. The media that plays it like you will die if you catch it is fear mongering you to an early grave for political motives. The idea that it only spread from states opening up early and none of the recent protests is ludicrous. The fact that people do not know how to use a mask is a damning statement of our education system and I'm not sure which is worse, the mask issue or the inability to think critically. The armchair quarterbacks that incessantly complain that it is spreading because people don't use masks is again, ludicrous. It's a virus people and it is here to stay and the only thing I am sure about is that we know next to nothing about it. Anything else is speculation/opinion, not fact.
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Old 07-09-20, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
"Texas needs to do more" is what's getting you into this mess.
I think I found the answer
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Old 07-09-20, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
The second wave for the Spanish Flu was primarily because the virus had mutated from the first wave into a much more virulent form. It wasn't because social distancing from the first wave was relaxed (it was not thought necessary). Serious attempts to stop the pandemic by shutting down venues and the like didn't happen until the second wave, and for most, like Philadelphia, it was too little too late.
So it was a coincidence that, shortly after the parade, infections skyrocketed? When was the mutation vis-a-vis the date of the parade? (Rhetorical questions.) And from what I have read, many health officials did object to the parade. And can you definitively provide ii no proof of your last sentence? (Of course not.)

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Old 07-09-20, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
Iím so bored right now waiting for nighttime when I ride my bike to avoid the heat. Watching Karen and Kyle meltdown videos for entertainment Texas needs to do more and if we have to shut down for awhile so be it. I wear my mask and when I see people that donít I walk the other way or go down another aisle. Especially if the person is purposely looking for confrontation. You can tell by the body language of the Bubba and Bubettes they are not that clever. Iím self isolating as much as possible now since this virus is out of control because I feel the risk just going to the grocery store.
We need a compiled Karen and Kyle Kovid melt down thread... some place where all these can be easily viewed...
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Old 07-09-20, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by canopus View Post
IMHO, The idea that we can distance and trace our way out is a pipe dream. The media that plays it like you will die if you catch it is fear mongering you to an early grave for political motives. The idea that it only spread from states opening up early and none of the recent protests is ludicrous. The fact that people do not know how to use a mask is a damning statement of our education system and I'm not sure which is worse, the mask issue or the inability to think critically. The armchair quarterbacks that incessantly complain that it is spreading because people don't use masks is again, ludicrous. It's a virus people and it is here to stay and the only thing I am sure about is that we know next to nothing about it. Anything else is speculation/opinion, not fact.
And yet, other countries ARE managing just fine... Odd eh? So there must be some reason...
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Old 07-09-20, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
So it was a coincidence that, shortly after the parade, infections skyrocketed? When was the mutation vis-a-vis the date of the parade? (Rhetorical questions.) And from what I have read, many health officials did object to the parade.
I think you misunderstood. Lots of people are trying to analogize a second wave of COVID with the second wave of the Spanish Flu ... the argument being that when you stop social distancing and the like, you're likely to get a second wave and an even bigger one than the first.

It is my understanding that that is not what happened with the Spanish Flu. The first wave came and was fairly moderate. It really didn't even set off the alarms it should have because they were more worried about a serious measles epidemic at the time. In any case, social distancing policies were not put in place. Off went the soldiers to Europe to spread it in the trenches to other soldiers (under the best conditions possible for transmission).

In Europe, the virus mutated to a much more virulent form. And soldiers coming back brought that with them. THAT was the second wave. It was much larger than the first, not because they stopped social distancing after the first wave (that really didn't happen during the first wave to any significant extent), but because the virus had mutated to a more virulent form. Philadelphia was particularly hard hit because it was already in the general population, and they had a huge parade and other festivities that involved a LOT of people coming together at one time. I was recently listening to a podcast about Philadelphia's decision to go forward with the parade. A lot came from President Wilson's mandate, and there was some kind of minor good news about the virulence of the antigen that convinced them to go forward with the parade. A true clusterf*ck.

Interesting also is that Wilson himself caught the flu while he was negotiating the peace terms for WWI. It tore him up pretty good and was at least partially credited with his giving in to the demanded harsh terms imposed on post war Germany, which of course, helped along WWII. Interesting stuff.
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Old 07-09-20, 05:26 PM
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A bit short of a shutdown:

Gov. Ducey limits restaurant dine-in capacity to 50% as COVID-19 spreads
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Old 07-09-20, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
And yet, other countries ARE managing just fine... Odd eh? So there must be some reason...
other countries arenít us and we arenít them. and are they? based on what? because honestly i donít trust anyones numbers. and without numbers, itís all just propaganda.
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Old 07-09-20, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by some guy who is on my ignore list for good reason
The second wave for the Spanish Flu was primarily because the virus had mutated from the first wave into a much more virulent form. It wasn't because social distancing from the first wave was relaxed (it was not thought necessary). Serious attempts to stop the pandemic by shutting down venues and the like didn't happen until the second wave, and for most, like Philadelphia, it was too little too late.
...where in hell do you get this stuff ? In 1918, virology was just a fantasy in some science fiction story. The ability to see and study viruses didn't come around until the invention and perfection of the electron microscope. Nobody knew what a virus was in 1918, and they certainly weren't tracking mutations. There's little science from that pandemic, and most of it was wrong. But there is a lot of historical accounts and some informed conjecture. Which speculation on mutation of that virus form is not.
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Old 07-09-20, 06:07 PM
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Originally Posted by canopus View Post
IMHO, The idea that we can distance and trace our way out is a pipe dream. The media that plays it like you will die if you catch it is fear mongering you to an early grave for political motives. The idea that it only spread from states opening up early and none of the recent protests is ludicrous. The fact that people do not know how to use a mask is a damning statement of our education system and I'm not sure which is worse, the mask issue or the inability to think critically. The armchair quarterbacks that incessantly complain that it is spreading because people don't use masks is again, ludicrous. It's a virus people and it is here to stay and the only thing I am sure about is that we know next to nothing about it. Anything else is speculation/opinion, not fact.
...yeah. Look, we already know a lot more about it than we knew about viruses in 1918. More to the point, how in heaven's name do you explain away the results in countries that have actually done the work to control, test, trace, and isolate cases ? Don't bother to respond, I'm putting you on ignore after I post this. You complaining about people lacking the ability to think critically is funny, but not funny enough to keep reading what you write.
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Old 07-09-20, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by canopus View Post
other countries arenít us and we arenít them. and are they? based on what? because honestly i donít trust anyones numbers. and without numbers, itís all just propaganda.
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Old 07-09-20, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...where in hell do you get this stuff ? In 1918, virology was just a fantasy in some science fiction story. The ability to see and study viruses didn't come around until the invention and perfection of the electron microscope. Nobody knew what a virus was in 1918, and they certainly weren't tracking mutations. There's little science from that pandemic, and most of it was wrong. But there is a lot of historical accounts and some informed conjecture. Which speculation on mutation of that virus form is not.
I get it from books and documentaries on the subject. A lot more is known about that virus than was known before. They've gone into permafrost to find some of the different strains of the virus. It's been studied extensively to find out where it originated (still some dispute about that) and why it was so virulent.

Edit to add: This is but one example from 2005 ... a little Googling and you'll find all manner of intersting stuff about the Spanish Flu ... it has been extensively studied:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/
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Old 07-09-20, 07:56 PM
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the SEC is planning to play football. the NBA is setting up a league in a bubble. cardboard people are being created to fill the stands. the shut downers have lost. it's work til you drop for the fatherland or motherland or disneyland but in all cases the government message is go to work and be careful. if a state(s) shut down now it would be a blanket admission that our government wasted $3 T R I L L I O N. enjoy the remnants of yesterday while you can because there will be no good news.
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Old 07-09-20, 08:04 PM
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... It is possible that a mutation or reassortment occurred in the late summer of 1918, resulting in significantly enhanced virulence.
It is unclear what gave the 1918 virus this unusual ability to generate repeated waves of illness. Perhaps the surface proteins of the virus drifted more rapidly than other influenza virus strains, or perhaps the virus had an unusually effective mechanism for evading the human immune system.
...do you understand the meanings of "it is possible", "it is unclear", and "perhaps" ? No, probably not. *sigh*
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