... As the world rushes to roll out a vaccine to billions of people today, what might we learn from the ill-fated events of 1976?

It began at a US Army training base in New Jersey. In February 1976, several soldiers at Fort Dix fell ill with a previously unrecognised swine flu. None had been in contact with pigs, so human transmission was assumed. Testing revealed that the virus had spread to more than 200 recruits.

The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 were still fresh in the memory, and fears soon escalated of another 1918-like influenza pandemic, which had killed tens of millions. Further investigation found that people under 50 years old had no antibodies to this new strain.

Urgent decisions were needed. Public health officials realised it might be possible to get a vaccine to the public by the end of the year if they acted fast. The pharmaceutical industry had just finished manufacturing vaccines for the normal flu seasons. They also had an animal advantage: roosters. Back then, influenza vaccine was produced in fertilised hen’s eggs. That season’s roosters were due for slaughter, so a slow decision would add a delay of several months to vaccine manufacture.

In March, President Ford announced a $137m (£67.5m in 1976) effort to produce a vaccine by the autumn. “Its goal was to immunise every man, woman and child in the US, and thus was the largest and most ambitious immunisation program ever undertaken in the United States,” wrote Imperato in a 2015 paper reflecting on the events.

With hindsight, it’s easy to see that the fears of the time were unfounded. The swine flu strain spotted at Fort Dix was not dangerous, and there would be no pandemic. Later, researchers discovered that benign swine flu strains had been circulating in the US population long before this one was identified at the military base. And scientists who feared another Spanish flu did not know that the 1918 influenza was avian, not swine. Researchers at the time also suffered from a form of recency bias: based on experience from the 1950s and 60s, they assumed major influenza pandemics happened on an 11-year cycle, when they are actually more irregular.

So, as has happened throughout the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, the scientists could only give the best advice they could based on incomplete knowledge. Many public health officials were sceptical and uncertain too, including Imperato in New York. “I think all of us were in agreement that yes, it's probably unlikely but we can't be absolutely sure,” he recalls.

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(CNN) A spin studio that public health officials say followed all Covid-19 protocols is now reporting 61 positive cases of Covid-19, and as many as 100 staff, clients and family members may have been exposed.

SPINCO, in Hamilton, Ontario, just reopened in July and had all of the right protocols in place, including screening of staff and attendees, tracking all those in attendance at each class, masking before and after classes, laundering towels and cleaning the rooms within 30 minutes of a complete class, said Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, Hamilton's medical officer of health, in a statement.

But it still wasn't enough.

Public health officials are very concerned about the number of cases and the size of the outbreak, especially because the city is not currently a hotspot and the facility was not ignoring health protocols, they said in a statement to CNN.

"They have also supported public health services in our investigation by sharing the messaging with all their members," said Richardson.
There are currently 44 confirmed positive primary cases associated with SPINCO and 17 confirmed secondary cases. Exposure was linked to several classes held from September 28 to October 4.

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