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I wonder how many K-12 teachers will become infected

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I wonder how many K-12 teachers will become infected

 
Old 07-17-20, 08:25 PM
  #26  
DeadGrandpa
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
​​​​​​Are those our only two choices? We can't drive down infection rates while we await a vaccine? A lot of other countries did, so it's possible ... why aren't we up to the task?
I agree that driving down the infection rate is a laudable goal. I think the difficulty stems from an inherent resistance (in the US) to being told what to do. Sociologically, I don't think we are a very compliant population. Not in this country, anyway. If I wasn't riding so much lately, I'm sure things would get mental around here pretty quick. Strange how a 40 mile ride can help you sort things out.
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Old 07-17-20, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
Thank you for the most reasoned reply I believe I've ever read here on BF. I don't know if "herd immunity" applies in this situation, but I've heard that the (Covid) mortality rate in the K-12 age group is many times less than the mortality rate for the regular flu. We don't close schools because of the flu. Maybe we should.
​​​​​​

Ok found some data comparing different disease deaths:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...nd-S/9bhg-hcku

There were several children that died of COVID, but up to about age 14, the influenza deaths slightly exceeded COVID deaths.

Then after the age of 15, the COVID death numbers began to dwarf the influeza deaths.

How many of those influenza deaths would have been preventable with more vaccination?

Nonetheless, from February to July, there were a total of 6,519 influenza deaths, and 121,374 COVID deaths.

Do we know the number of influenza illnesses?
Here is from a few years ago:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

44 million "symptomatic" influenza illnesses during the entire annual flu season.

It is hard to estimate the number of COVID cases we've had. We've had about 3.6 million documented COVID cases in the USA so far. But, my belief is that we've had closer to 14 million cases (100x the number of deaths). We're only talking about a fraction of the influenza season though.


COVID Mortality does seem to mirror closely Pneumonia mortality, without better definition of the causes.

But, if we've had around 14 million cases out 328 million US Population, there are a lot of people susceptible to the disease. Say, without controls, 50% of the population would eventually get the disease in the first few years, then that would mean potentially millions of dead, far exceeding other diseases.

Brazil and India may eventually provide us examples of the uncontrolled disease tearing through the population.
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Old 07-17-20, 08:58 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
I agree that driving down the infection rate is a laudable goal. I think the difficulty stems from an inherent resistance (in the US) to being told what to do. Sociologically, I don't think we are a very compliant population. Not in this country, anyway. If I wasn't riding so much lately, I'm sure things would get mental around here pretty quick. Strange how a 40 mile ride can help you sort things out.
Around here, the infection rates (and number of deaths) are low. I see a lot of people wearing masks while in stores, and even walking down the street.

We'll see if we can drop back to pre-Memorial Day numbers shortly... hopefully. A case or two a day?

Still, a couple of end of school year parties (teenagers and twenty-somethings) made our numbers go bonkers... so I can imagine what next school year will bring.
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Old 07-17-20, 09:32 PM
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Schools all shut down early in this pandemic and have not opened. Younger kids have not been in large groups so no data to show up yet. Kids at school will be a lot like 20s - 30s at bars & parties as far as infectious environment goes. Complex plans that can’t really be carried out won’t help very much.
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Old 07-17-20, 10:28 PM
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The only way I see any plan working is if people will do it with free will. Getting 300 million people to comply is impossible.
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Old 07-18-20, 08:49 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
​​​​​​Are those our only two choices? We can't drive down infection rates while we await a vaccine? A lot of other countries did, so it's possible ... why aren't we up to the task?
>>> because 25-35% of ameriKa hold that they are entitled to THEIR LIFE & THEIR LIBERTY & THEIR HAPPINESS as they so define it and no amount of public service announcements or community peer pressure will dent this segment as i posted elsewhere the catholic diocese of beaumont is reopening schools with no mask mandate & no social distancing ALL because some parent complaints about masks ... chances are the schools won't open anyway but...
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Old 07-18-20, 03:45 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
​​​​​​Are those our only two choices? We can't drive down infection rates while we await a vaccine? A lot of other countries did, so it's possible ... why aren't we up to the task?
because American is stupid. we are way too divided and trump has made it political instead of what it is a medical emergency. hell he wants to cut spending on testing and tracing. we are this way because of politics and stupidity.
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Old 07-18-20, 03:50 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by peugeot mongrel View Post
I wonder how many K-12 teachers will become infected before they start to quit in significant numbers?

https://www.sltrib.com/news/educatio...-meeting-utah/
I'm assuming a very high percentage, if not all (as determined by an antibodies test).

Schools being what they are, a solid percentage of kids won't cope with being told to use iron-clad PPE procedures, and so it'll spread. Educators being in the classroom as they are, it's inevitable many (probably most) will become exposed to it.

JMO
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Old 07-18-20, 05:53 PM
  #34  
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Old 07-18-20, 08:38 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Yup. Science can say what it will but all of us who grew up in large families and went to the usual schools know that cartoon is right on. The only thing different is the cooties those kids bring home. We parents (well, I"m not a parent) grew up in worlds without those cooties.
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Old 07-18-20, 11:42 PM
  #36  
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Older children spread the coronavirus just as much as adults, study finds

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coron...ed~curatedpage
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Old 07-19-20, 06:59 AM
  #37  
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Judging from our local Facebook page, parents here seem to be in no hurry to send their kids back to school. Though the page is filled with rants about having to wear a mask in Walmart, there must be some Darwinian reluctance to Guinea Pig their children.
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Old 07-23-20, 07:13 AM
  #38  
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A good perspective from a high school dropout & all-around good guy Dave Grohl. His Mom's a retired teacher and she didn't raise no dummy,
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Old 07-26-20, 06:51 AM
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Here’s what dozens of educators across Illinois say about schools reopening: ‘I’m scared. I want to do my job, but I don’t want to die.’

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coron...ed~curatedpage
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Old 07-31-20, 07:29 PM
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We’ll see how this works out pretty soon.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...ing/index.html
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Old 07-31-20, 08:57 PM
  #41  
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Old 08-01-20, 09:00 AM
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Children and staff at Georgia overnight camp test positive for coronavirus, CDC says

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chil...201651044.html
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Old 08-01-20, 10:53 AM
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"What happens when someone comes to school infected?"

As More Schools Stay Online, One That Opened Now Has a Virus Problem

https://news.yahoo.com/more-schools-...140501853.html
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Old 08-02-20, 12:20 AM
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Texas has a crazy policy they will only close the school if there is a major spike by then it’s too late! I’m going to stand in a fire ant bed and only move after 90% of my body gets stung.

Last edited by Hondo Gravel; 08-02-20 at 12:22 AM. Reason: The ants are starting to sting lol.
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Old 08-02-20, 07:56 PM
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catholic schools will be opening before public schools in parts of texas. if they have to shut down it will be a sure sign that the public schools will rethink opening. most catholic schools have many fewer students are white & cost $10K+ a year meaning that if the "nuns" can't do it forget about the inner city dreg school house pulling it off. the chances of a school staying open is very very slim. logic would seem to mandate that in 2020 K-12 education home schooling if possible and if not some sort of small group (4 or less) schooling with teachers remotely assisting the home schooled. this would be a paradigm shift in how to educate but these are paradigm times
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Old 08-02-20, 08:33 PM
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With each school a super spreader environment the outcome is pretty predictable.
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Old 08-03-20, 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

Older children spread the coronavirus just as much as adults, study finds

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coron...ed~curatedpage

Unhinged Wisconsin Teachers Plant Fake Tombstones to Represent Kids Dying if Schools Are Re-Opened — In a State with ZERO COVID DEATHS Under Age 19

.6 tenths of % of America lives in nursing homes. 45% of the deaths are in nursing homes.
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Old 08-03-20, 05:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Pouhana View Post

Unhinged Wisconsin Teachers Plant Fake Tombstones to Represent Kids Dying if Schools Are Re-Opened — In a State with ZERO COVID DEATHS Under Age 19

.6 tenths of % of America lives in nursing homes. 45% of the deaths are in nursing homes.

260 employees in Georgia's largest school district test positive for COVID-19 or are exposed

https://news.yahoo.com/260-employees...152354063.html
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Old 08-03-20, 11:08 PM
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Texas is letting each school district decide what to do. A large urban school will have different issues than a small remote school out in west Texas. Being a large and diverse plot of real estate one policy won’t fit all. There isn’t an easy answer.
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Old 08-04-20, 03:39 AM
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Policy may have to be changed following this research.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/?fbclid=IwAR12hctsx5FEHfbwwGuFG8uiPaBMvuPr_xopHNuBlhbBA6SiJJynOjv6Nms
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