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Corona and Kids

Old 08-13-20, 02:36 PM
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berner
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Corona and Kids

Recently Trump, and likely other masterminds, claimed that children are nearly immune to infection. In a study by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Childrens Hospital Association found that about 997,000 children tested positive in the last few weeks. Today's NY times reports that in one school district that opened early in Georgia, 1193 kids are quarantined. I am baffled that supposedly intelligent people don't seem to grasp the concept that one infected person can then infect a room full of people who in turn can infect many others. Just the realization that Covid-19 began in one city in China and subsequently, within weeks, spread to every corner of the globe ought to be an important clue. I suppose this means we have clueless leadership and that means the problem is bigger than imagined. I'd better double that order of TP and Ramen noodles.
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Old 08-13-20, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by berner View Post
I suppose this means we have clueless leadership and that means the problem is bigger than imagined. I'd better double that order of TP and Ramen noodles.
Clueless and dishonest. We’re all going to have a hard, long time of it. Whether we believe it or not. Bars and schools make an awful lot of super spreading environments. Not to mention all the big social gatherings scattered around.
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Old 08-13-20, 03:44 PM
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This administration knows what it's doing. It isn't ignorant. But it is manipulating the ignorance of its base. They know kids and healthy young adults will be asymptomatic carriers or, at worst, recover from a brief illness.

But they also know it'll kill a significant number of older and disabled people who are already borderline ill with comorbidities. That's the whole point. Same as the GOP's gradual, incessant encroachment into every part of the social safety net. The point is to either wean people off dependence or let them die, mostly through benign or indirect neglect.

And it's working. I read the comments on our local mayor's posts almost every day, along with local news reports related to the pandemic. A significant number of people in my community are perfectly and knowingly willing to "let the weak ones die," so the young and strong can resume normal life. This isn't ignorance. It's malice.

That's the danger of turning a blind eye toward demonizing our fellow citizens and marginalizing and alienating anyone and everyone who isn't in lock step with our personal pet ideology. It makes it easier to let others die of neglect or malice after we've dehumanized them for years.
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Old 08-14-20, 02:15 AM
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Originally Posted by berner View Post
Recently Trump, and likely other masterminds, claimed that children are nearly immune to infection. In a study by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Childrens Hospital Association found that about 997,000 children tested positive in the last few weeks.
I think you have too many 9's in there. And, the dates are off.

At least 97,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus during the last two weeks of July,according to a new review of state-level data by the American Academy of Pediatrics and Children's Hospital Association.

And the 8/6 updated report

Still, quite a few potentially infectious children being sent back to schools.
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Old 08-14-20, 03:11 AM
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The data above shows a total of 380,174 children in the USA have been infected (note, the number of cases early in the year were likely estimated very low)

A total of 94 children have died (they seem to have skipped a couple of states including Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and West Virginia)
The dataset above also seems to list NYC, but not New York state. See below. Added 3 additional deaths for NY State outside of NYC.

Approximately 37 to 187 children die of the flu every year. Of course, ignoring the short year of COVID so far and social distancing effects. Meaning we would certainly have several hundred deaths due to COVID if allowed to run its course.

Edit:
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov...&%3Atoolbar=no

13 pediatric deaths above for NYC
5 deaths ages 0 to 9, NY State
11 deaths ages 10 to 19, NY state
Total 0 to 19, NY state: 16 (updated total).

Last edited by CliffordK; 08-14-20 at 03:35 AM.
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Old 08-16-20, 05:26 AM
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Originally Posted by peugeot mongrel View Post
Clueless and dishonest. We’re all going to have a hard, long time of it. Whether we believe it or not. Bars and schools make an awful lot of super spreading environments. Not to mention all the big social gatherings scattered around.
How could anyone not believe in it?
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Old 08-16-20, 09:19 AM
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Whoops. You're right. too many 9s. Wouldn't want to spread misinformation.
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Old 08-16-20, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by berner View Post
Whoops. You're right. too many 9s. Wouldn't want to spread misinformation.
We open schools in the 9th month and in about 99 days we should have that extra 9 back where you put in in the first post.
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Old 08-16-20, 11:42 AM
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Even if kids and younger people don't have bad outcomes personally, they can spread it to people who might. I'm unable to fathom how some people don't understand this, but they really don't. They're all "Oh so what if these young people are partying, if they get it, it'll be no more than a cold, so who cares?"

By that line of thinking, it was cool for Typhoid Mary to just jaunt anywhere, because she wasn't going to have a bad outcome...

Why do some people not even remotely grasp that none of us live in a bubble? That that older person "who should just stay home if they're so worried" can't seal themself off from the world: at the least they will need groceries and medication delivered, etc. and hope the person who delivers it to them doesn't bring the virus as well (hence why it's in our best interest to ensure that person stays healthy by not passing this thing around like Pokemon cards)? (This aside from concerns of creating a cohort of second-class citizen expected to stay locked away from the world in ways other people don't want to/think they're above, merely because they were audacious enough to age or have an illness... are there really people out there advocating for what amounts to modern-day leper colonies, except instead of people who are infected, it should be the people who really ought not to be infected??)
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Old 08-16-20, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Wileyone View Post
How could anyone not believe in it?
Certainly with kids, there are those that "believe" in COVID, but don't believe they're the problem.

My brother is dealiing with my 16 1/2 year old niece. He wants her to account for 100% of her time. She wants some "private time". Nobody knows how much care she is taking. And, of course, a trip to town could mean putting my brother and the rest of the family at risk. Also his small business and his customers. And, potentially spreading elsewhere too.

Nonetheless, somehow they need to come up with a compromise plan.
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Old 08-16-20, 03:26 PM
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In an era when many believe the earth is flat, that humans never landed on the moon and any number of ridiculous beliefs of the sort we would expect, say, during the dark ages, I'm unable to fathom why. The only thing that might apply is that the public has been lied to so often little is believed. We all remember "weapons of mass destruction". What Bush managed to destroy is trust although that process was underway with the rise of American Oligarchs with multi-million dollar year end bonuses while the incomes of the middle class went the other way and loss of jobs.
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Old 08-22-20, 03:38 AM
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Living in Japan, I find it hard to believe how Americans are able to politicize every possible thing, particularly the COVID 19 outbreak. But then fear and hate are the greatest of all political tools, and people prefer to hate and fear things than to live together in peace. They would much rather be lied to and to be manipulated than hear truth or be required to formulate their own opinions.

Schools reopened in Japan in June, and so far there has been no increase in cases among children. Cases in Japan have increased overall, but this increase is occurring not because the disease is spreading, but because more people are being tested. Back during the early days of the outbreak (and when most people in Japan died from the disease) there were only a few hundred tests performed every day (in a country of nearly 130 million). Now tens of thousands of people are being tested every day, and, guess what? More cases are being found. Nearly all the new cases are among working people between 20 and 30. More than 70% of fatalities in Japan are people over 80, 25% more were between 70 and 80, nearly all the rest occurred in people over 60.

Germany and Switzerland carefully monitored students when schools were reopened, and though they found lots of positive cases, nearly all the cases were caught from a parent or adult family member. So far they have had difficulty in finding cases where children have infected other children or adults. Denmark reopened schools before Germany or Switzerland, and did not see a resulting increase in cases. Despite a second wave of infections hitting Europe and other places, schools are not responsible for this wave.

There have been COVID 19 fatalities among children, but they are very rare, and most fatalities occurred in children with other health conditions. Italy has done the most research, as it was the first country to suffer heavy COVID 19 casualties. In Italy, 75% of children were asymptomatic to having mild symptoms. Most fatalities among children were to those who had congenital heart or lung problems, or had type 2 diabetes.
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Old 08-22-20, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
This administration knows what it's doing. It isn't ignorant. But it is manipulating the ignorance of its base. They know kids and healthy young adults will be asymptomatic carriers or, at worst, recover from a brief illness.

But they also know it'll kill a significant number of older and disabled people who are already borderline ill with comorbidities. That's the whole point. Same as the GOP's gradual, incessant encroachment into every part of the social safety net. The point is to either wean people off dependence or let them die, mostly through benign or indirect neglect.

And it's working. I read the comments on our local mayor's posts almost every day, along with local news reports related to the pandemic. A significant number of people in my community are perfectly and knowingly willing to "let the weak ones die," so the young and strong can resume normal life. This isn't ignorance. It's malice.

That's the danger of turning a blind eye toward demonizing our fellow citizens and marginalizing and alienating anyone and everyone who isn't in lock step with our personal pet ideology. It makes it easier to let others die of neglect or malice after we've dehumanized them for years.
Not being an attorney, I should probably shut up. Never stopped me before though.
I've felt for sometime that certain "decision makers" should be charged with at least, involuntary manslaughter. I've read several source definitions, it seems to fit.

I'll just add it to my list of wishes for Nov 4.
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Old 08-22-20, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by 50PlusCycling View Post
Living in Japan, I find it hard to believe how Americans are able to politicize every possible thing, particularly the COVID 19 outbreak. But then fear and hate are the greatest of all political tools, and people prefer to hate and fear things than to live together in peace. They would much rather be lied to and to be manipulated than hear truth or be required to formulate their own opinions.

Schools reopened in Japan in June, and so far there has been no increase in cases among children. Cases in Japan have increased overall, but this increase is occurring not because the disease is spreading, but because more people are being tested. Back during the early days of the outbreak (and when most people in Japan died from the disease) there were only a few hundred tests performed every day (in a country of nearly 130 million). Now tens of thousands of people are being tested every day, and, guess what? More cases are being found. Nearly all the new cases are among working people between 20 and 30. More than 70% of fatalities in Japan are people over 80, 25% more were between 70 and 80, nearly all the rest occurred in people over 60.

Germany and Switzerland carefully monitored students when schools were reopened, and though they found lots of positive cases, nearly all the cases were caught from a parent or adult family member. So far they have had difficulty in finding cases where children have infected other children or adults. Denmark reopened schools before Germany or Switzerland, and did not see a resulting increase in cases. Despite a second wave of infections hitting Europe and other places, schools are not responsible for this wave.

There have been COVID 19 fatalities among children, but they are very rare, and most fatalities occurred in children with other health conditions. Italy has done the most research, as it was the first country to suffer heavy COVID 19 casualties. In Italy, 75% of children were asymptomatic to having mild symptoms. Most fatalities among children were to those who had congenital heart or lung problems, or had type 2 diabetes.
I cannot imagine where an infectious disease the transmission is in one direction only (adult to child).
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Old 08-22-20, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by 50PlusCycling View Post
Living in Japan, I find it hard to believe how Americans are able to politicize every possible thing, particularly the COVID 19 outbreak.
The problem is the numbers in the USA just look bad, and everyone is looking for a scapegoat.
And, ultimately if we had a lethargic start to the COVID response, and a president that is echoing "reopen" rallies without first formulating a plan... then it all gets reflected back on the leader.

Plus, of course, we were in a very deeply divided election season even before COVID.
Originally Posted by 50PlusCycling View Post
Cases in Japan have increased overall, but this increase is occurring not because the disease is spreading, but because more people are being tested.
Looking at the infection curves in Japan, the mortality curve very much mirrors the daily case curve (about 1 in 100).

The difference, of course, is that Japan, a country with 126 million people has daily infections far below the USA.
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Old 08-22-20, 04:34 PM
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As far as kids spreading the disease. One thing I heard on the radio yesterday (can't find the article).

COVID has a few things that make it unique from the cold and flu. Apparently most people don't pass the disease on (I don't think numbers were specified).

However, there are a lot of super spreader events.
COVID has a lot of super-spreader events, where one individual, often either pre-symptomatic, or just as symptoms pop up, will infect a bunch of people, generally in a closed environment.

Studies with kids are ambiguous, but at least some studies indicate that some children fall into that super spreader category., and are able to pass on the disease early while asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic.
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Old 08-22-20, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
As far as kids spreading the disease. One thing I heard on the radio yesterday (can't find the article).

COVID has a few things that make it unique from the cold and flu. Apparently most people don't pass the disease on (I don't think numbers were specified).

However, there are a lot of super spreader events.
COVID has a lot of super-spreader events, where one individual, often either pre-symptomatic, or just as symptoms pop up, will infect a bunch of people, generally in a closed environment.

Studies with kids are ambiguous, but at least some studies indicate that some children fall into that super spreader category., and are able to pass on the disease early while asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic.
Looking at the situation in Australia, I think you've hit the nail on the head. Most people maybe only spread it to their immediate family in the home or maybe in a workplace where close contact is inevitable. But there are the occasional superspreaders who are virus factories pumping it out on an industrial scale and being capable of spreading it to many people. Unfortunately you can't pick them, so quarantine/lock down has to be designed for them. We were doing quite well in Australia until one of the security guards in the international quarantine system got it, turned out to be a superspreader and nailed half the country in one go, so two states went back into lockdown. (genomic testing pretty well confirmed a single source for the outbreak, from a quarantine hotel). We have some outbreaks in schools here in Australia, so kids can definitely get it and spread it.
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Old 08-22-20, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
Looking at the situation in Australia, I think you've hit the nail on the head. Most people maybe only spread it to their immediate family in the home or maybe in a workplace where close contact is inevitable. But there are the occasional superspreaders who are virus factories pumping it out on an industrial scale and being capable of spreading it to many people. Unfortunately you can't pick them, so quarantine/lock down has to be designed for them. We were doing quite well in Australia until one of the security guards in the international quarantine system got it, turned out to be a superspreader and nailed half the country in one go, so two states went back into lockdown. (genomic testing pretty well confirmed a single source for the outbreak, from a quarantine hotel). We have some outbreaks in schools here in Australia, so kids can definitely get it and spread it.
Back in January/February/March we had the big repatriation quarantines, and there were notes that the virus likely jumped the quarantine.

Fortunately there don't seem to be any "Typhoid Mary" types, and the disease seems to be limited to a couple of weeks, at least in those that are still able to walk.

It is beyond me why they don't have rigorous testing for everybody that crosses the quarantine lines. What would it be to test a few hundred government employees multiple times vs testing millions of citizens?

There is a lot of talk about the NBA "Bubble" here in the USA. We'll see how well it lasts, but everything indicates extremely rigorous guidelines to keep the virus out including quarantines, daily virus tests, daily temperature and pulse-ox tests, etc. These players, many of whom are millionaires just have to give up 3/4 of their lives to get to play.
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Old 08-22-20, 07:27 PM
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So a little more "fun with numbers". I haven't done this yet so I don't know where it goes. Say 100 positive in a sample of 100,000; a number I see touted as the OK to open school. Suburban high school close to a big city. 1000 students, 200 staff and faculty. 100 in 100,000 is one in a thousand so at any given time, one positive student unless he has quarantined. Say 30 weeks in a school year. Over the school year, what? 40-60 positives? One in 20 is a superspreader. (I see this for adults; are kids different?) So 2-3 superspreaders a year. Each superspreader infects 15 kids. (If they are in school, that sure sounds to me like a "superspreader event".) Those 15 infect 2 others each, so 30 people. Say that is 20 at home, 10 at school. Say 5 of those at home are siblings who go to different schools. They infect 5 more in other schools. Two "COVID generations" later, those schools get another superspreader.

So, now we have 15 sick at this school, 20 sick in students homes so probably a death or two and superspreaders at say two other schools. Al because one 1000 student high school opened. And that is a school year with just one superspreader. Getting 15 sick, the odds are that one of those 15 is a superspreader. Now if all the other schools in town do the same thing and send sick siblings to this school; I'm sorry but best intentions, temperatures taken, lectures on COVID health measures, testing and tracing simply aren't going to cut the mustard.

I won't do the exercise but raising the bar to 10 in 100,000 will make a big difference. (1 in 10,000)

I hope no one dreams of opening schools with 100 positives per 100,000.

Ben
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Old 08-22-20, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
So a little more "fun with numbers". I haven't done this yet so I don't know where it goes. Say 100 positive in a sample of 100,000; a number I see touted as the OK to open school. Suburban high school close to a big city. 1000 students, 200 staff and faculty. 100 in 100,000 is one in a thousand so at any given time, one positive student unless he has quarantined. Say 30 weeks in a school year. Over the school year, what? 40-60 positives? One in 20 is a superspreader. (I see this for adults; are kids different?) So 2-3 superspreaders a year. Each superspreader infects 15 kids. (If they are in school, that sure sounds to me like a "superspreader event".) Those 15 infect 2 others each, so 30 people. Say that is 20 at home, 10 at school. Say 5 of those at home are siblings who go to different schools. They infect 5 more in other schools. Two "COVID generations" later, those schools get another superspreader.

So, now we have 15 sick at this school, 20 sick in students homes so probably a death or two and superspreaders at say two other schools. Al because one 1000 student high school opened. And that is a school year with just one superspreader. Getting 15 sick, the odds are that one of those 15 is a superspreader. Now if all the other schools in town do the same thing and send sick siblings to this school; I'm sorry but best intentions, temperatures taken, lectures on COVID health measures, testing and tracing simply aren't going to cut the mustard.

I won't do the exercise but raising the bar to 10 in 100,000 will make a big difference. (1 in 10,000)

I hope no one dreams of opening schools with 100 positives per 100,000.

Ben
Oooooh stop it with your logic and sciencey stuff and scarey numbers. Everybody knows the only thing that counts is what feels right...
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