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Hooda Thunk it- Sturgis

Old 09-08-20, 03:50 PM
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Hooda Thunk it- Sturgis

Responsible for 260,000 cases (including secondary infections) according to modelling https://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf
Pity health authorities can't ask the question when people get tested "have you, or anybody you know been to Sturgis recently?" But South Dakota did coincidentally did get a massive spike in cases afterwards.
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Old 09-08-20, 11:36 PM
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Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is responsible for 260,000 new cases of coronavirus and will cost $12.2 billion in health care to treat those whose infections can be tied back to the South Dakota event, new study claims

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said the study was 'fiction' on Tuesday, and she criticized journalists who reported on it, while defending rally attendees

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...2-billion.html
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Old 09-09-20, 12:14 AM
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take the money and run...hoo hoo hoo.. should have been roadblocks for the applicable days (locals only-id required) and social media posts (along with newspaper/teevee drops) cancelling this event at least two weeks in advance.

waiting for the nfl season to be cancelled/truncated. then maybe diphthongs will finally "get it."
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Old 09-09-20, 04:42 AM
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Wait for the figures of the latest trump rallies come in.
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Old 09-10-20, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is responsible for 260,000 new cases of coronavirus and will cost $12.2 billion in health care to treat those whose infections can be tied back to the South Dakota event, new study claims

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said the study was 'fiction' on Tuesday, and she criticized journalists who reported on it, while defending rally attendees

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...2-billion.html
In other words, the study is credible.
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Old 09-11-20, 11:16 PM
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Quite a stretch to claim that >200,000 infections were caused by Sturgis, given its based only on cellphone data ... which we’ve been told is not adequate for contact tracing purposes.

I’ll wait for real data, thankyouverymuch.
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Old 09-12-20, 02:26 AM
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is responsible for 260,000 new cases of coronavirus and will cost $12.2 billion in health care to treat those whose infections can be tied back to the South Dakota event, new study claims

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said the study was 'fiction' on Tuesday, and she criticized journalists who reported on it, while defending rally attendees

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...2-billion.html
as long as everyone had their usual, buzzy good time, i'm sure everything was safe, by the book and above reproach. what could possibly happen in this golden age of personal responsibility
in a lowest, common denominator area? nice to know sd is good, budget-wise, to be able to cover potential ficticious-said health care. oh wait...

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Old 09-12-20, 03:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Quite a stretch to claim that >200,000 infections were caused by Sturgis, given its based only on cellphone data ... which we’ve been told is not adequate for contact tracing purposes.

I’ll wait for real data, thankyouverymuch.
You'll be waiting a long time then, if you think there will be a special survey done specifically asking about Sturgis, but SD definitely had a good old spike post Sturgis https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html as have surrounding states.
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Old 09-12-20, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
You'll be waiting a long time then, if you think there will be a special survey done specifically asking about Sturgis, but SD definitely had a good old spike post Sturgis https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html as have surrounding states.
i have read that so far, they’ve traced perhaps 200 cases to Sturgis. And those spikes also followed other events which likely contributed to the spikes.

i have no doubt that Sturgis we’ll result in significantly more cases. But the methodology and assumptions of that study are shaky at best.
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Old 09-12-20, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
i have read that so far, they’ve traced perhaps 200 cases to Sturgis. And those spikes also followed other events which likely contributed to the spikes.

i have no doubt that Sturgis we’ll result in significantly more cases. But the methodology and assumptions of that study are shaky at best.
It's not rocket science to think that getting 400000 people together from disparate places to get drunk and party from in the midst of a pandemic will be a disaster. It's magical thinking to think that it won't be. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...0,000/12658432
Incidentally US excess deaths passed 200,000 weeks ago. Slowing testing and counting can't hide dead people.
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Old 09-12-20, 11:09 PM
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I wonder if covid death victims can harvest their organs? I ordered a kidney and a liver that got delivered in an Igloo cooler. But I sent it back because it contained COVID-19. Bad for business.
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Old 09-13-20, 12:39 AM
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As this Twitter thread by Dr. Ashish Jha notes, the worst case scenario posited for Sturgis seems very unlikely. Harmless, no. But the speculation of a 250k super spreader event, also no. Probably. Still not the kind of place or people I'd hang out with.
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Old 09-15-20, 10:44 PM
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I also found the estimate of 260K new infections not very real. Nonetheless, someone did reportedly die in Minnesota and they have a few dozen known cases. Still, it only took a couple of dozen. maybe a hundred spreaders back in January coming to NYC and look what happened... 200K dead.
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Old 09-16-20, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
It's not rocket science to think that getting 400000 people together from disparate places to get drunk and party from in the midst of a pandemic will be a disaster. It's magical thinking to think that it won't be. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...0,000/12658432
Incidentally US excess deaths passed 200,000 weeks ago. Slowing testing and counting can't hide dead people.
​​​
This pretty much explains it. The numbers posited were waaaay out of whack, and they should and did set off a lot of people's BS meters.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/09...ion-paper.html
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Old 09-17-20, 12:39 PM
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thx, that's a good article from Slate. This is the key right here I think:

They use a “difference-in-difference” approach, calculating whether the change in case trends for a county that sent many people to Sturgis was larger compared with a county that sent none. They looked at how cumulative case numbers changed between June 6 and Sept. 2.While this approach may sound sensible, it relies on strong assumptions that rarely hold in the real world. For one thing, there are many other differences between counties full of bike rally fans versus those with none
The number of bikers a particular county 'sent' to Sturgis is going to be strongly correlated with the number of bikers in a county, and it seems a pretty easy stereotype that the number of bikers would be strongly correlated with the number of anti-authority types who would eschew masks and flout social distancing restrictions. So the statistical uptick in all the home counties of the Sturgians is probably mostly caused by similar-attitude neighbors who stayed at home to do the work of superspreadin'

Interesting also, the end of the Slate article links two other studies by the same authors, who appear to be saying that BLM protests and Trump's Tulsa rally, did NOT cause infectious breakouts. Looks like they're saying in both cases, offsetting factors were more significant: when there's controversial protests or rallies going on, everybody that's not participating are more likely to hunker down at home.
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Old 09-17-20, 12:55 PM
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Seems to me that all this is saying is that social distancing, masks, hand washing, ie all this stuff we are supposed to do, really does make a real difference. I saw far more masks and distance at the protests. I suspect they did the same or better when they got home.
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Old 09-17-20, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
Seems to me that all this is saying is that social distancing, masks, hand washing, ie all this stuff we are supposed to do, really does make a real difference. I saw far more masks and distance at the protests. I suspect they did the same or better when they got home.
Yup. I found myself recently going through all the smoke and crap driving home from Seattle last week. I was shocked at how many people were OK with eating indoors in restaurants with people relatively close by. Most of them were in an at-risk demographic too (weight, age, etc.)
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Old 09-17-20, 01:07 PM
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The number is based on modeling and "published" as a working paper (i.e. not peer reviewed) by an economist. Modeling is only as good as the assumptions made on the input parameters so we should take this prediction with some skepticism. There can be no doubt that the event lead to many more cases; however the true toll will likely never be known. The media slobbers over this sort of story, though, because they know that it attracts viewers. I consider economists to be pretty shrewd people, having worked with a few, but I see this sort of "publish to the press" trend as being a bit unethical. The the more significant issue IMO is the dilution of public respect for the scientific approach.
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Old 09-17-20, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Moe Zhoost View Post
The number is based on modeling and "published" as a working paper (i.e. not peer reviewed) by an economist. Modeling is only as good as the assumptions made on the input parameters so we should take this prediction with some skepticism. There can be no doubt that the event lead to many more cases; however the true toll will likely never be known. The media slobbers over this sort of story, though, because they know that it attracts viewers. I consider economists to be pretty shrewd people, having worked with a few, but I see this sort of "publish to the press" trend as being a bit unethical. The the more significant issue IMO is the dilution of public respect for the scientific approach.
​​​​​​ Well stated.
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Old 09-17-20, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Moe Zhoost View Post
The number is based on modeling and "published" as a working paper (i.e. not peer reviewed) by an economist. Modeling is only as good as the assumptions made on the input parameters so we should take this prediction with some skepticism. There can be no doubt that the event lead to many more cases; however the true toll will likely never be known. The media slobbers over this sort of story, though, because they know that it attracts viewers. I consider economists to be pretty shrewd people, having worked with a few, but I see this sort of "publish to the press" trend as being a bit unethical. The the more significant issue IMO is the dilution of public respect for the scientific approach.
I agree.



My assumption on that models' input is: not enough ice cream

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Old 09-17-20, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Yup. I found myself recently going through all the smoke and crap driving home from Seattle last week. I was shocked at how many people were OK with eating indoors in restaurants with people relatively close by. Most of them were in an at-risk demographic too (weight, age, etc.)
I've now seen twice the statement that half of recent COVID positives had eaten out in the previous 2 weeks. Spending extended time in close quarters, indoors and with nearly all masks off while placing food that has potentially been touched or in the vicinity of a "super spreader in my mouth just doesn't pass my "is this smart?" test.
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Old 09-17-20, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Moe Zhoost View Post
The number is based on modeling and "published" as a working paper (i.e. not peer reviewed) by an economist. Modeling is only as good as the assumptions made on the input parameters so we should take this prediction with some skepticism. There can be no doubt that the event lead to many more cases; however the true toll will likely never be known. The media slobbers over this sort of story, though, because they know that it attracts viewers. I consider economists to be pretty shrewd people, having worked with a few, but I see this sort of "publish to the press" trend as being a bit unethical. The the more significant issue IMO is the dilution of public respect for the scientific approach.
A hundred times YES.

It perturbs me when I see memes purporting to present something like "This is the best road trip across the US according to science" and the like. Anyone with a lick of scientific training recognizes it for the BS that it is (a lot of opinions and guesses fed into an algorigthm of dubious validity), but those without scientific training or a skeptical eye eat it up. Then they all complain about how no one in the country trusts "science" as much as they do anymore.
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Old 09-17-20, 04:39 PM
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No, a THOUSAND times YES

In the rush to denounce/mock the anti-science crowd, it is all to easy to succumb to the temptation to swallow bad science in the other direction, which just ends up giving the anti-science crowd more reasons to anti-science
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Old 09-17-20, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
I've now seen twice the statement that half of recent COVID positives had eaten out in the previous 2 weeks. Spending extended time in close quarters, indoors and with nearly all masks off while placing food that has potentially been touched or in the vicinity of a "super spreader in my mouth just doesn't pass my "is this smart?" test.
I've read data with the same conclusions. I think some of what I read is a little sketchy, as it was based on statistics rather than contact tracing. But that contact tracing study of the retaurant in China with the visitor from Wuhan (I'm sure you have seen it) is evidence enough for me to stay away from eating indoors. Nothankyouverymuch.
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Old 09-17-20, 04:57 PM
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it's not about eating indoors, it's about breathing indoors
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