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Some say the end is near

Old 10-18-20, 10:07 AM
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Seattle Forrest
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Some say the end is near

https://scitechdaily.com/johns-hopki...-19-infection/

I hope so, anyway. Would love to hear thoughts from people who understand this. 🙂

While the world waits eagerly for a safe and effective vaccine to prevent infections from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers also are focusing on better understanding how SARS-CoV-2 attacks the body in the search for other means of stopping its devastating impact. The key to one possibility blocking a protein that enables the virus to turn the immune system against healthy cells has been identified in a recent study by a team of Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers.

Based on their findings, the researchers believe that inhibiting the protein, known as factor D, also will curtail the potentially deadly inflammatory reactions that many patients have to the virus.

Making the discovery even more exciting is that there may already be drugs in development and testing for other diseases that can do the required blocking.
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Old 10-18-20, 05:44 PM
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The video the world has longed to see... Covid vaccines rolling off the Pfizer production line in thousands of tiny bottles as professor claims Oxford-Astra Zeneca shot will be rolled out by DECEMBER

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tion-line.html
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Old 10-18-20, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

The video the world has longed to see... Covid vaccines rolling off the Pfizer production line in thousands of tiny bottles as professor claims Oxford-Astra Zeneca shot will be rolled out by DECEMBER

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tion-line.html
Lets hope the Pfizer vaccine has the efficacy and safety data to be approved in November. Doesnt matter how many doses they have manufactured if it doesnt get approval.
As far as I know the Astra Zeneca trial is still on hold in the UK, so it might be a wee bit optimistic to predict a December rollout.
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Old 10-18-20, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Lets hope the Pfizer vaccine has the efficacy and safety data to be approved in November. Doesnt matter how many doses they have manufactured if it doesnt get approval.
As far as I know the Astra Zeneca trial is still on hold in the UK, so it might be a wee bit optimistic to predict a December rollout.
It's on hold in the US but I believe they only paused for a week in the UK.
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Old 10-18-20, 07:28 PM
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.....wait, are we quoting Tool lyrics in here?
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Old 10-18-20, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
It's on hold in the US but I believe they only paused for a week in the UK.
You are right, its on hold in the US not the UK.

This CNN article explains some of what is going on.
(CNN)AstraZeneca, whose Phase 3 coronavirus vaccine clinical trial has been on hold for more than a month, did not get critical safety data to the US Food and Drug Administration until last week, according to a source familiar with the trial.

The FDA is considering whether to allow AstraZeneca to restart its trial after a participant became ill. At issue is whether the illness was a fluke, or if it may have been related to the vaccine.
The source said the root of the delay is that the participant was in the United Kingdom, and the European Medicines Agency and the FDA store data differently.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/healt...ial/index.html
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Old 10-18-20, 08:33 PM
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I thought you were referring to this:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1014082754.htm
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Old 10-18-20, 09:09 PM
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Originally Posted by SalsaShark View Post
.....wait, are we quoting Tool lyrics in here?
Yup, I would go fishing in Arizona Bay ....
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Old 10-18-20, 10:21 PM
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Old 10-19-20, 01:21 AM
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It might be the end for remdesivir as a treatment for covid.

Remdesivir has little effect on COVID-19 survival, WHO says

https://nypost.com/2020/10/16/remdes...ival-who-says/
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Old 10-19-20, 02:45 AM
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Some say the end is near
~40M known infections to-date, and ~7.8B people on the planet. I don't think the end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is anywhere near.


Whether the "end" comes through a special inhibiting factor being understood and gotten to everyone, or a pill, injection, "herd" immunity, or a bolt from above, two things are almost impossible to get with completeness and surety: acquiring a 100% solution; and getting it (even if one could exist) to 100% of the people.

Even if the ultimate, 100%-effective solution is found, it'll take a very long time to get it to everyone and to strike down all potential vectors out there (cats and dogs, monkeys, ...?)

And, fact is, since the thing's airborne and apparently can hang out for days while maintaining its efficacy, who can say how easily it'll move on air currents from spot to spot, just like dust from storms or volcanoes, just like industrial crap from Asia to the Americas, continuing to find its way to the least little village in the middle of nowhere.

JMO. Whatever scientific breakthroughs might come.
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Old 10-19-20, 02:49 AM
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"May" means the same thing as "May not." You "may" get hit by a car while riding your bike next week, you "might" win the lottery if you buy a ticket tomorrow, you "could" be a millionaire if you won. If you eliminate ever COVID story which includes the words "may" or "might" or "could," we would have at least 90% fewer news articles.
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Old 10-19-20, 09:18 AM
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I was listening in on a city meeting re: Covid. One of the speakers was pointing out even if there is an effective vaccine soon it is still going to take awhile to get it manufactured and distributed. Also, initial doses are going to go to first responders and front line health workers, then trickledown to us common folk. He stated it might be well into 2022 before vaccines are fully out to the public.
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Old 10-19-20, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by bikecrate View Post
I was listening in on a city meeting re: Covid. One of the speakers was pointing out even if there is an effective vaccine soon it is still going to take awhile to get it manufactured and distributed. Also, initial doses are going to go to first responders and front line health workers, then trickledown to us common folk. He stated it might be well into 2022 before vaccines are fully out to the public.
They are taking the step of preparing production in parallel with the approval process. The estimates I've read have a (and there may be more than one) generally available in early 2021. The question is how effective it will be (CDC is willing to accept 50%) and how many people will take it.
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Old 10-19-20, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
They are taking the step of preparing production in parallel with the approval process. The estimates I've read have a (and there may be more than one) generally available in early 2021. The question is how effective it will be (CDC is willing to accept 50%) and how many people will take it.
There's talk in governments about making the taking of it required. Even forcible.

We'll see.
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Old 10-19-20, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
~40M known infections to-date, and ~7.8B people on the planet. I don't think the end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is anywhere near.


Whether the "end" comes through a special inhibiting factor being understood and gotten to everyone, or a pill, injection, "herd" immunity, or a bolt from above, two things are almost impossible to get with completeness and surety: acquiring a 100% solution; and getting it (even if one could exist) to 100% of the people.

Even if the ultimate, 100%-effective solution is found, it'll take a very long time to get it to everyone and to strike down all potential vectors out there (cats and dogs, monkeys, ...?)

And, fact is, since the thing's airborne and apparently can hang out for days while maintaining its efficacy, who can say how easily it'll move on air currents from spot to spot, just like dust from storms or volcanoes, just like industrial crap from Asia to the Americas, continuing to find its way to the least little village in the middle of nowhere.

JMO. Whatever scientific breakthroughs might come.
That is nonsense. The virus can remain detectable for a considerable time in laboratory conditions. There is no evidence that infectious doses can be transmitted long distances by air like dust from volcanoes. There is enough false information about this pandemic being promoted without adding more.
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Old 10-19-20, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
There's talk in governments about making the taking of it required. Even forcible.

We'll see.
I can't see that happening anywhere in North America.
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Old 10-19-20, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
I can't see that happening anywhere in North America.
Me neither. But this is pretty much on all fours.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobs...%20the%20state.
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Old 10-19-20, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
There's talk in governments about making the taking of it required. Even forcible.

We'll see.
Originally Posted by skookum View Post
I can't see that happening anywhere in North America.
I doubt the vaccine would be enforced for adults, but there is significant precedence to enforce it for school kids (who are the least affected by COVID, but are very good at spreading germs).

@Biker395 points out the eventual Smallpox eradication, and perhaps the continuing Polio eradication efforts. Plus other vaccines.

It might, or might not apply. If the COVID vaccine only has moderate efficacy, then a very widespread vaccination program will help protect everyone.

We also need evidence of minimal harm from the vaccine, less severe disease post-vaccination, and even the potential for repeated vaccinations without severe reactions.

It is possible with the right vaccination efforts, as well as only moderate genetic drift, COVID-19 could be globally eradicated. But, it would take a lot of effort.
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Old 10-19-20, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
I doubt the vaccine would be enforced for adults, but there is significant precedence to enforce it for school kids (who are the least affected by COVID, but are very good at spreading germs).

@Biker395 points out the eventual Smallpox eradication, and perhaps the continuing Polio eradication efforts. Plus other vaccines.

It might, or might not apply. If the COVID vaccine only has moderate efficacy, then a very widespread vaccination program will help protect everyone.

We also need evidence of minimal harm from the vaccine, less severe disease post-vaccination, and even the potential for repeated vaccinations without severe reactions.

It is possible with the right vaccination efforts, as well as only moderate genetic drift, COVID-19 could be globally eradicated. But, it would take a lot of effort.
It would be just too contentious to make it mandatory . If it was up to me I would make it mandatory for health care workers and maybe for teachers and others working in schools.
I doubt that will happen. You are right, we really need good data on efficacy and safety before even considering such policies.

I dont think it will ever be eradicated, it just spreads too easily and without being noticed until it is already widespread in the community. We are going to have to learn to live with it in some way or another.

I wonder about places like New Zealand and China. Its pretty much eliminated there, but how can they ever open up to the rest of the world? Maybe they can get everybody vaccinated over a period of time, but taking into consideration efficacy of the vaccine, will they be able to achieve herd immunity?
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Old 10-19-20, 06:00 PM
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I heard on NPR this morning that things are currently taking a turn for the worse.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/92527...east-30-states

Also, "We're probably two or three weeks behind Europe, and Europe's in a very difficult position right now, too."
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Old 10-19-20, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
I wonder about places like New Zealand and China. Its pretty much eliminated there, but how can they ever open up to the rest of the world? Maybe they can get everybody vaccinated over a period of time, but taking into consideration efficacy of the vaccine, will they be able to achieve herd immunity?
They'll likely have the same vaccination program that we'll have.

Vaccine mediated herd immunity really depends on the efficacy of the vaccine.

However, even if it only has moderate efficacy, it will help a lot.

With the disease, there is the ever critical R-Factor. If R=1, then the virus will slowly trickle through the society. > 1, and it will grow. < 1,and it will die out. And, if reintroduced, it will eventually die out again.

The vaccine might impact both those who are susceptible, as well as, hopefully, the severity and duration of the infectious period. And, thus, even if only 50% effective, it could make a big dent in the viral transmission.

If the vaccine is based on the spike proteins, over time I would anticipate different vaccines with different spike proteins.

In the USA and Europe, there is some evidence of seasonality of the virus. We'll know more about that as winter progresses, and we move into next spring and summer. Widespread use of even a moderate efficacy vaccine may help beat down the virus during the spring/summer. But, there is also risk the the efficacy of the vaccine will wane over time including genetic shift in the virus.
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Old 10-19-20, 10:12 PM
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In Canada, provinces that had eliminated the virus are starting to surge, it seems like you have to seal yourself off for the duration of the pandemic. That could be years.Restrictions are being re-imposed in many places, not here yet, but I bet it is coming.

Polls show that only about 50% of Americans would get a covid vaccination. If you had a vaccine with 70% efficacy and 50 % uptake, that leaves 65% of the population unprotected. A long way from any kind of herd immunity.
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Old 10-19-20, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
It would be just too contentious to make it mandatory . If it was up to me I would make it mandatory for health care workers and maybe for teachers and others working in schools.
I doubt that will happen. You are right, we really need good data on efficacy and safety before even considering such policies.

I dont think it will ever be eradicated, it just spreads too easily and without being noticed until it is already widespread in the community. We are going to have to learn to live with it in some way or another.

I wonder about places like New Zealand and China. Its pretty much eliminated there, but how can they ever open up to the rest of the world? Maybe they can get everybody vaccinated over a period of time, but taking into consideration efficacy of the vaccine, will they be able to achieve herd immunity?
Covid isn't bad enough to justify the massive undertaking eradication would need, and it has non human reservoirs. If everybody on earth stayed home for a month, it would run out of hosts. But it would still exist in bats and could jump to humans again. That isn't feasible in the real world, so it would have to be decades of vaccination programs, isolating and contact tracing outbreaks, etc, everywhere people live including war zones.
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Old 10-20-20, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
They are taking the step of preparing production in parallel with the approval process. The estimates I've read have a (and there may be more than one) generally available in early 2021. The question is how effective it will be (CDC is willing to accept 50%) and how many people will take it.
Just read an CNN article that basically said the same time line as vaccine distribution occurring well into 2022. I think your right it will be available in 2021 (we hope), but roll out might be longer.
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