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Micro Shutdowns

 
Old 11-07-20, 12:06 PM
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CliffordK
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Micro Shutdowns

Like many states, Oregon has had increasing difficulties controlling COVID over the last few weeks with new cases jumping from 300 to 400 a day up to 500 to 600 a day, and two days at 769 and 790. It may not seem like a lot, but it is a big jump for a moderate sized state that had < 100 cases a day during April and May.

Governor Kate Brown has ordered a 2-week mini shutdown for Nov. 11 through Nov. 25.

5 counties were chosen with > 200 cases per 100K per 2 weeks, with a couple more counties that are close.

My county, Lane, hasn't been selected for the mini-shutdown. We took a mighty big hit when the University resumed classes, but seem to be getting the numbers down.

The Two-Week Pause measures include:
• Urging all businesses to mandate work from home to the greatest extent possible.
• Pausing long-term care facility visits that take place indoors to protect staff and residents.
• Reducing maximum restaurant capacity to 50 people (including customers and staff) for indoor dining, with a maximum party size of six. Continuing to encourage outdoor dining and take out.
• Reducing the maximum capacity of other indoor activities to 50 people (includes gyms, fitness organizations/studios, bowling alleys, ice rinks, indoor sports, pools, and museums).
• Limiting social gatherings to your household, or no more than six people if the gathering includes those from outside your household, reducing the frequency of those social gatherings (significantly in a two-week period), and keeping the same six people in your social gathering circle.
It doesn't sound like a real strict shutdown. We'll see how much it helps.

Looking at the local universities. They got hit hard with the move-in, but are really getting the case numbers down.
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Old 11-07-20, 11:03 PM
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Shutdowns would be avoidable and sometimes unnecessary if the denialists would pull their heads out of their butts and cooperate with some basic public hygiene practices.

It's gonna be interesting in my area over the next month or so, since bars, nightclubs, stripper joints, etc., have been reopened, apparently at full capacity despite recommendations, and no signs of caution by the mostly younger crowds. They probably aren't at much risk but unless they avoid older and vulnerable family, friends and other folks they're gonna spread cooties during flu season.

Most folks I see in stores are wearing masks -- sometimes under their noses, but at least it's covering their mouths in case they talk. The main trouble sources will be restaurants, bars, etc.

Unless the virus has mutated or more folks have developed antibodies. Our city posts data most days but it's difficult to make sense of it and they've eliminated some data from public reports on social media.
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Old 11-08-20, 07:02 PM
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shutdowns of public gatherings and restaurant/entertainment/lifestyle venues are coming but retail and services will remain open
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Old 11-08-20, 07:40 PM
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It looks like the new Oregon restrictions do allow some restaurants to remain active. But, primarily targeted at limiting group sizes and density.

As far as retail shopping, I wonder if there is a way to quantify the risk of say a biweekly shopping trip using social distancing, masks, etc.

At least early the pandemic, there was a risk to retail checkers. Hopefully masks and barriers have helped.
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Old 11-11-20, 03:04 PM
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Minnesota is around 5000 cases/day, and Gov. Walz issued a new order yesterday. He's not targeting restaurants and bars (which he should), but social gatherings are now severely restricted. From his order (bold is mine, strikethroughs in the original)

"Social gatherings. All indoor social gatherings of more than 10 people and all social gatherings involving members of more than 3 households (regardless of the size of the gathering) and all outdoor social gatherings of more than 25 people are prohibited, except as set forth below. Social gatherings are groups of individuals, who are not members of the same household, congregated together for a common or coordinated social, community, or leisure purpose— even if social distancing can be maintained. This prohibition includes planned and spontaneous gatherings as well as public and private gatherings.

I believe that this effectively bans group bicycle rides, as well as political demonstrations.

But like I said, the bars and restaurants are still open for indoor service at 50% of capacity. Go figure.
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Old 11-11-20, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
Minnesota is around 5000 cases/day, and Gov. Walz issued a new order yesterday. He's not targeting restaurants and bars (which he should), but social gatherings are now severely restricted. From his order (bold is mine, strikethroughs in the original)

"Social gatherings. All indoor social gatherings of more than 10 people and all social gatherings involving members of more than 3 households (regardless of the size of the gathering) and all outdoor social gatherings of more than 25 people are prohibited, except as set forth below. Social gatherings are groups of individuals, who are not members of the same household, congregated together for a common or coordinated social, community, or leisure purpose— even if social distancing can be maintained. This prohibition includes planned and spontaneous gatherings as well as public and private gatherings.

I believe that this effectively bans group bicycle rides, as well as political demonstrations.

But like I said, the bars and restaurants are still open for indoor service at 50% of capacity. Go figure.
I've given up making sense of some of the restrictions (and lack thereof) I have heard about. Allowing indoor bar and restaurant service at any capacity sounds like a bad idea to me. And on the other hand, there are jurisdictions near me that require a mask any time you are outdoors, even if you are unlikely to encounter anyone and can easily keep a very wide distance.

We have good weather around here and can dine alfresco almost all year long. I am not sure how restaurants elsewhere in colder climes are going to handle it.
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Old 11-11-20, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
I've given up making sense of some of the restrictions (and lack thereof) I have heard about. Allowing indoor bar and restaurant service at any capacity sounds like a bad idea to me. And on the other hand, there are jurisdictions near me that require a mask any time you are outdoors, even if you are unlikely to encounter anyone and can easily keep a very wide distance.

We have good weather around here and can dine alfresco almost all year long. I am not sure how restaurants elsewhere in colder climes are going to handle it.
A very big part of the increase in cases in colder places is coming from indoor restaurants and bars. In many cases, places are "handling it" by tolerating huge infection and hospitalization rates. It's wrong, but there we are.
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Old 11-11-20, 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
A very big part of the increase in cases in colder places is coming from indoor restaurants and bars. In many cases, places are "handling it" by tolerating huge infection and hospitalization rates. It's wrong, but there we are.
This is how they are handling it in Texas.

"They are running out of hospital beds. They are running out of room in their morgues. They are running out of room in the refrigeration trucks. They are shipping bodies around the state because the funeral homes are swamped. And, in El Paso, with all this, a group of restaurateurs is suing a local judge for "exceeding his authority" in ordering a county-wide shutdown. The attorney general of the state of Texas has joined that lawsuit. From the El Paso Times:"

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/repu...223800140.html
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Old 11-12-20, 02:47 AM
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We're approaching 1,000 COVID related deaths in my county.

Every day when the mayor posts the numbers, the usual suspects post the usual denials and paranoid conspiracy theories.

And some of those same people lurk on the social media pages for the police and emergency responders, posting sanctimonious thoughts and prayers over the occasional death in a car wreck, or to insinuate some subtle racial agenda with every murder in some parts of the county.

All of those deaths amount to a fraction of the pandemic related deaths. They think one or two murders a month in a major city is somehow evidence that we all need to join a militia and be armed 24/7, wearing body armor and helmets.

But those same people resist wearing a 3-ply bit of fabric over their pie holes in Walmart because of "muh freedumbs." And a murder at the county line stripper bar didn't deter the crowds, but asking them to wear less material over their mugs than the entire outfit Britney Shivers was wearing onstage was asking too much.
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Old 11-12-20, 09:19 AM
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Old 11-12-20, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
A very big part of the increase in cases in colder places is coming from indoor restaurants and bars. In many cases, places are "handling it" by tolerating huge infection and hospitalization rates. It's wrong, but there we are.
Yea .... I'm afraid you are correct.

In other news, they are summonning people to jury service out here. I know there is a lot at stake with criminal and civil trials going on, but what sense does it make to summon people to spend hours indoors in a little room with people they don't know? Worse than permitting it, the government is mandating it under threat of a $1500 fine.

Meanwhile, other places want you to mask up on a solo walk in a suburban neighborhood where contact is out doors, ephemeral and with 20 feet of space. $350 fine for scofflaws.

This is the stuff that drives me nuts about this pandemic.
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Old 11-12-20, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
We're approaching 1,000 COVID related deaths in my county.
We are approaching 3,000 cases in my county, and 33 dead.

A gnarly recent outbreak that has left 11 people in the hospital and 6 in the ICU.

It is a different story in Portland.

My county just missed the new guidelines which should be under effect from Portland to Salem, and a few other counties. Give it a week or so, and we'll see if the guidelines have any impact on the numbers.

It looks like the whole nation experienced a significant ghoulish Halloween Bump, with deaths nearly doubling.

Christmas and Thanksgiving could be a rough time ahead.

After an early spike in numbers, the University of Oregon has gotten their numbers down a LOT. Down to 23 cases a week, mainly off-campus student housing. I'm not seeing the distinction whether that includes fraternities and sororities or not. No significant campus Halloween bump, so far.
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Old 11-12-20, 02:19 PM
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7200 new cases today in Minnesota, in a state with only 5.5 million people.

Scale that to the population of Texas and it would be something north of 35,000 cases.

Scale that to the US, and it would be about 450,000 cases.
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Old 11-15-20, 03:04 PM
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Oregon's guidelines remain mild. Generally social guidelines. It began with 5 counties, but by the time it was implemented, several additional "watch" counties were added. And, now it has gone statewide as cases seem to still be growing.

We'll see if there is any impact from the new restrictions by next Wednesday or so, although it may take a couple of weeks before we see any substantive changes (longer than the initial restrictions). Of course, we need to keep these social guidelines in effect if we really want to minimize the need for greater restrictions.

Oregon: Population: 4.218 Million, Peak at 1,109 cases a day (1 in 3,803 per day).
Illinois: Population: 12.67 Million, Peak at 15,415 cases a day (1 in 822 per day).

It is hard to say what a limit should be, but Illinois is struggling with the hospital load, and now going back into full lockdown mode.
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Old 11-15-20, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
O

It is hard to say what a limit should be, but Illinois is struggling with the hospital load, and now going back into full lockdown mode.
Nope, we are not in the lockdown mode like we had in April & May, Yet. What starts tomorrow in Chicago is a voluntary stay-at-home advisory. But if things don't turnaround really soon, then the Governor will implement much stricter measures. And then the lawsuits will start flying again as the more rural regions have fought him every step of the way on everything this year. Rolls eyes.

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/11...snt-slow-down/

I have to stay off of FB because I have local acquaintances that are very much for fully reopening the schools and were very angry that the indoor dining got shut down a couple weeks ago, although there are at least 70 suburban restaurants ignoring the rules. Which means people are still being idiots by going and dining indoors. The last time I ate indoors was February. The next time I eat indoors around other people could easily be in several years.

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/11...or-dining-ban/
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Old 11-15-20, 04:25 PM
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Have a propane smoker and grill outside so outdoor cooking and eating is easy to do. But I’m down way South we really don’t have winter here. Preparing for the spike that is here already by freezing meat to smoke later, stuff like that. Texas as usual will do the wrong thing
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Old 11-15-20, 04:30 PM
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Here I am in a University town that has a low infection rate due to a lot of testing and real consequences for violating the protocols. 100 students attended a party and got sent home to mom and pop without any tuition money refunded. I still see groups of young ladies walking on campus together without masks even though we have a mask mandate on campus. Our county rate of infection are rising due to lax mask wearing, so even stricter mask mandates for me. I quite want to be here this time next year, so I am quarantining again until the all clear whistle blows. 2020 is a lost year for me. Smiles, MH
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Old 12-08-20, 05:56 AM
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I think Shutdowns are useless while there are persons ignoring mask mandates and rools
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