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Were lockdowns the best approach?

 
Old 12-07-20, 07:59 PM
  #26  
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Old 12-08-20, 10:56 AM
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Lockdowns do help flatten the curve, but they also extend the pandemic. And, once a lockdown is lifted the pandemic will return. Hindsight will be the best judge of what we did right and what we did wrong. Even our brightest experts have gotten it horribly wrong, In this case the esteemed Dr. Fauci.


There will be a new phrase that we'll be hearing much more of, "Covid fatigue."
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Old 12-08-20, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
I have my doubts about that. Would the common cold be gone for good if the entire world locked down for 4-6 weeks? I'd be thrilled to try!
Just like individual people only last decades and humanity needs to keep making babies constantly to stick around. Individual virus particles aren't long for this world, the disease needs people to keep continually making copies, and people either die or get over it, so it needs to spread. If it were possible to 100% prevent it from spreading, that would be the end of that virus species. (But similar coronaviruses would still be circulating in bats and might jump into humans again.) But it isn't realistically possible for humans to do a complete and total lockdown. I only mentioned it to point out the irony.

Anthrax is a bacteria, its spores can last indefinitely in the world, even if nobody had it for years it can still exist and be infectious. Viruses aren't like that.

The common cold isn't just one thing, there are a number of different viruses and maybe bacteria too that all cause similar symptoms and we call all of them "the common cold."
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Old 12-08-20, 01:48 PM
  #29  
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The best approach is to already have the vaccine ready when the pandemic begins. Like with the flu. We got it half right on this one. I'll start a new thread about it.
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Old 12-09-20, 11:02 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Oldairhead View Post
Lockdowns do help flatten the curve, but they also extend the pandemic.
That's not necessarily true. Lockdowns can end a pandemic if enforced effectively. Also, if the pandemic is going to be ended by a vaccination program either way, the duration of the pandemic will be the same, just with fewer cases and deaths with the lockdown.
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Old 12-09-20, 12:35 PM
  #31  
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Some countries have done quite hard lockdowns, other countries haven't and I don't see a pattern that proves lockdowns work at all.

The effect seems logical but there's most likely a bit more to it. People locked down with eachother in a house will contaminate eachother, much more than in shops and restaurants because of the duration and ventilation. Another issue is the regular immune system, which is helped by some exercise and probalby fresh air too. Especially in Northern- Europe lots of people have a lack of vitamine D because of the lack of sunlight this time of year, there appears to be a strong correlation between lack of vitamine D and hospitalization for covid. Certainly people with an immigrant background are heavily overrepresented in the hospitals in Northern-Europe. Not all immigrants have a lot of melanine and there might be other factors, but darker skins simply need more exposure to daylight for the same vitamine D.

So there's a chance it's actually counterproductive.
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Old 12-09-20, 12:41 PM
  #32  
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Well, what was the alternative?
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Old 12-09-20, 12:44 PM
  #33  
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"Were lockdowns the best approach?"

I think the answer is - the best approach is an approach. A unified approach is something this country never tried. Masks work, Social distancing works. Contact tracing and quarantines work. Cpmplete hit or miss doesn't.
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Old 12-09-20, 01:15 PM
  #34  
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Wink

Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
"Were lockdowns the best approach?"

I think the answer is - the best approach is an approach. A unified approach is something this country never tried. Masks work, Social distancing works. Contact tracing and quarantines work. Cpmplete hit or miss doesn't.
"Look at this loony guy out in the wilderness! He's preaching cooperation and mutual benefit!"

Quiet you! Insinuating that a coordinated response of any kind would be better than what we did is passť!
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Old 12-09-20, 01:21 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Stadjer View Post
Some countries have done quite hard lockdowns, other countries haven't and I don't see a pattern that proves lockdowns work at all.

The effect seems logical but there's most likely a bit more to it. People locked down with eachother in a house will contaminate eachother, much more than in shops and restaurants because of the duration and ventilation. Another issue is the regular immune system, which is helped by some exercise and probalby fresh air too. Especially in Northern- Europe lots of people have a lack of vitamine D because of the lack of sunlight this time of year, there appears to be a strong correlation between lack of vitamine D and hospitalization for covid. Certainly people with an immigrant background are heavily overrepresented in the hospitals in Northern-Europe. Not all immigrants have a lot of melanine and there might be other factors, but darker skins simply need more exposure to daylight for the same vitamine D.

So there's a chance it's actually counterproductive.
Please tell me which countries instituted hard lockdowns that don't have their pandemic managed, or limited to foreign arrivals.

Your vitamin D correlation reach is more easily explained by the tendency for recent immigrants to be overrepresented in 'essential' services, resulting in more opportunities for exposure to the virus.
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Old 12-09-20, 04:57 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Lockdowns can end a pandemic if enforced effectively.
"Enforced effectively" is the key phrase, along with "enforced equitably." There cannot be a coordinated national plan in the US since the physical response to a pandemic is the responsibility of each States Public Health Departments, along with county and local officials. As they have already demonstrated, each state may go by the ever changing CDC recommendations or do something else entirely. We have gotten 50 different responses so far. As for the state and local officials well we have already seen that the elite leadership does not feel that they are required to comply at all! Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom are two that come to mind immediately for their behavior as well as many New York State officials who were/are in Florida while telling their constituents to stay home.

The vaccine itself, even if one is found that is effective may not end the pandemic either. Many people have stated that they will not take a vaccine once it becomes widely available, and you cannot force them to! Many groups that are considered "essential workers' are among them. A recent survey of the FDNY indicates that more than half of their union members will not take a vaccine once it become available. I don't think that you are going to be able to ask them to stay home if they don't!

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...gests/2764027/
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Old 12-09-20, 07:53 PM
  #37  
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People like to throw the word "lockdown" around, presumably because the word is incendiary. We never had anything that could be defined as such here in the US. What we had, and continue to have, are feeble half-measures. If planes are still flying and interstate travel is still allowed, ain't nobody locked down. The local govt. picks and chooses, because they continue to cater to special interests, and will institute whatever "measures" they see fit to damage whatever segment of the city/county/state they're out to squeeze at that given moment. Saving lives is not now, nor has it ever really been of paramount concern. And there you have it-- most places (and I'm only speaking to the US) are "fighting" the virus politically, and no physical problem in the history of man has ever been solved through political process.

New Zealand has done a great job of it-- but at the same time, they have the population density of Maine, the population of Alabama, and they're an island in the corner Pacific Ocean, down near Antarctica. The inland metro area I live in in SoCal has more people in it than the entire nation of New Zealand. So it's not so clear cut as just "do what they do." I've said it before-- around 2,100 in ICU for COVID in California right now. We've seen about 20,000 deaths. There's 39.5 million people here. In terms of infections, 96.4% of Californians haven't gotten it. In terms of preventable deaths, I kinda think that a 99.9995% survival rate is pretty good.
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Old 12-09-20, 09:59 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Stadjer View Post
Some countries have done quite hard lockdowns, other countries haven't and I don't see a pattern that proves lockdowns work at all.

The effect seems logical but there's most likely a bit more to it. People locked down with eachother in a house will contaminate eachother, much more than in shops and restaurants because of the duration and ventilation. Another issue is the regular immune system, which is helped by some exercise and probalby fresh air too. Especially in Northern- Europe lots of people have a lack of vitamine D because of the lack of sunlight this time of year, there appears to be a strong correlation between lack of vitamine D and hospitalization for covid. Certainly people with an immigrant background are heavily overrepresented in the hospitals in Northern-Europe. Not all immigrants have a lot of melanine and there might be other factors, but darker skins simply need more exposure to daylight for the same vitamine D.

So there's a chance it's actually counterproductive.
Are you saying that if people weren't locked up at home, roommates would go to restaurants and stores together and that would protect them? If not, how is it relevant to compare these things?
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Old 12-10-20, 07:31 AM
  #39  
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The Virus is what it is.
In the beginning we were told to stay home for 2 weeks that turned into nine months. We even got a Federal check.
Most of us complied and schools shut down. The initial warning was, if we do not, 2 Million people would die, (flatten the curve).
The virus is what it is. I beat the Grim Reaper out of another day.
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Old 12-10-20, 08:09 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by 1979schwinn View Post
The Virus is what it is.
In the beginning we were told to stay home for 2 weeks that turned into nine months. We even got a Federal check.
Most of us complied and schools shut down. The initial warning was, if we do not, 2 Million people would die, (flatten the curve).
The virus is what it is. I beat the Grim Reaper out of another day.
Ok...but you didnt actually answer the initial question.
I can guess that you dont think 'the lockdown' was the best approach, but you dont actually say one way or the other.
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Old 12-10-20, 08:52 AM
  #41  
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No body knows, we did flatten the curve.
There is no guide book for this. It was Dr. Fauci advise at the time.
Maybe we can learn from this. The virus is what it is, we are all in this together.
These are the cards we were dealt.
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Old 12-10-20, 09:07 AM
  #42  
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Federal guide lines, Bush Admin., called for Contact Testing and Tracing and in the beginning we were not prepared (still not on tracing).
Our hospital infrastructure was already crowed and un prepared. The lockdown allowed us a time to try to try to catch up. We are still learning on this.
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Old 12-10-20, 10:17 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by Unca_Sam View Post
Please tell me which countries instituted hard lockdowns that don't have their pandemic managed, or limited to foreign arrivals.
Spain, France and Italy are examples of countries that have doen pretty tough lockdowns but they don't do better than countries with soft approaches. Air travel always gets a special treatment and is a very big factor in spreading the virus again to countries who had little left of ti.

Your vitamin D correlation reach is more easily explained by the tendency for recent immigrants to be overrepresented in 'essential' services, resulting in more opportunities for exposure to the virus.
Maybe, but I don't know why we should look for easy explanations. You could also argue that people with immigration background are more often without a job and therefore should be less exposed. Both are besides the issue because it's matter of managing risks, both known and unknown risks. When you're relying on people's regular immune system for not having the health care system flooded 'stay home' seems a dumb advice. Work from home but go for a walk in the daylight seems much more sensible.

Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Are you saying that if people weren't locked up at home, roommates would go to restaurants and stores together and that would protect them? If not, how is it relevant to compare these things?
There's the number of exposure to potentially contagious people but there's also the degree of exposure. If everybody stays home all time it's almost a guarantee all roommates or members of the family will get it, and people still have to get groceries and still have some exposure moments to infect other. But that's only a speculative explanation why hard lockdowns don't seem to do very much.

I believe whe should start accepting that it's not like government control over peoples lives equals control over the virus. Maybe governments just have little unfluence over the spread despite and variations in spread are much more down to factors outside government control?
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Old 12-10-20, 11:30 AM
  #44  
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'Lock-downs' work best with government support, not with just government control. In the US we got neither.
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Old 12-10-20, 11:58 AM
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Do the lockdowns work? Yes! And they are only needed because some people fail to understand the issue and follow expert guidance.

Check out Minnesota stats, the two lines on the right show increasing levels of shutting down actives and business.
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Old 12-10-20, 12:57 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Are you saying that if people weren't locked up at home, roommates would go to restaurants and stores together and that would protect them? If not, how is it relevant to compare these things?
Originally Posted by Stadjer View Post
There's the number of exposure to potentially contagious people but there's also the degree of exposure. If everybody stays home all time it's almost a guarantee all roommates or members of the family will get it, and people still have to get groceries and still have some exposure moments to infect other. But that's only a speculative explanation why hard lockdowns don't seem to do very much.

I believe whe should start accepting that it's not like government control over peoples lives equals control over the virus. Maybe governments just have little unfluence over the spread despite and variations in spread are much more down to factors outside government control?
You didn't answer the question. Do you think people are safer eating at restaurants than being at home as you implied? Where do you suppose people go after the restaurant?
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Old 12-10-20, 01:17 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by 1979schwinn View Post
Federal guide lines, Bush Admin., called for Contact Testing and Tracing and in the beginning we were not prepared (still not on tracing).
Our hospital infrastructure was already crowed and un prepared. The lockdown allowed us a time to try to try to catch up. We are still learning on this.
For the most part hospital infrastructure is for profit. There are a lot of not for profit hospitals but they're still on a budget. The way to maximize profits or to maximize the impact of donor funds is to reduce expenses like empty beds and idle nurses. This isn't going to be an easy thing to fix given the paradigm they operate under.
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Old 12-10-20, 02:04 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
You didn't answer the question. Do you think people are safer eating at restaurants than being at home as you implied? Where do you suppose people go after the restaurant?
The pub? I get your point but the idea that the spread stops by locking people in their houses has to be wrong judged by the results. Also in other measure, there's hardly a reasonably expected effect. That doesn't mean it doesn't help but it's not control.
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Old 12-10-20, 02:35 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Stadjer View Post
The pub? I get your point but the idea that the spread stops by locking people in their houses has to be wrong judged by the results. Also in other measure, there's hardly a reasonably expected effect. That doesn't mean it doesn't help but it's not control.
Oh for FFS, what drugs are you yanks on**********?? The results clearly show that lockdowns work very, very, very effectively to stop the spread when properly done, backed by contact tracing. What you call lockdowns in the USA are some half arsed window dressing, mostly because half the population seems to have lost their minds and can't keep it in their pants, metaphorically speaking. Proper lockdowns can reduce caseload to zero very quickly, and it turns out the economy recovers quite quickly because people get their confidence back fast once they realise they aren't gonna die or get really sick. The state of Victoria in Australia has controlled exponential growth twice so far (after outbreaks spread by workers from quarantine hotels- yeah, there you go, that's how you control a pandemic, nobody gets into the country without going through testing and quarantine)..
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Old 12-11-20, 04:32 AM
  #50  
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[QUOTE=Trevtassie;21827158]Oh for FFS, what drugs are you yanks on**********?? I'm not a yank and I only smoke red hashish that was harvested by sending naked virgins running through the fields at full moon and scraping it from their sweaty bodies with an ebony spatula, and only on some weekends, thank you.
The results clearly show that lockdowns work very, very, very effectively to stop the spread when properly done, backed by contact tracing. What you call lockdowns in the USA are some half arsed window dressing, mostly because half the population seems to have lost their minds and can't keep it in their pants, metaphorically speaking. Proper lockdowns can reduce caseload to zero very quickly, and it turns out the economy recovers quite quickly because people get their confidence back fast once they realise they aren't gonna die or get really sick. The state of Victoria in Australia has controlled exponential growth twice so far (after outbreaks spread by workers from quarantine hotels- yeah, there you go, that's how you control a pandemic, nobody gets into the country without going through testing and quarantine)..
Besides the way Australia has enforced it, there are examples of lock downs that seemed to work as well as non lock downs that seemed to work. If positive tests decrease steeply after a lockdown it works and if it doesn't the lockdown wasn't hard enough, same with other measures. It's a bit like feeling your way in the dark because there are so many other (possible) factors like the weather and not just the seasonal temperature, behaviour on the unavoidable contact occasions, social isolation behaviour, ventilation, air pollution and the regular immune system. All over Europe you see governments operating a control panel of measures like they have control on the spread, but it turns out they haven't. Sometimes they get lucky, sometimes they don't and often they overreach.by just beeing tougher because nothing else worked.

I believe governments should try different things from the perspective that they have influence but not control, and not every increase or decrease is down to their measures taken.
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